The following are betting comments for Round 6 of the 2016-17 English Premier League season. These have been sourced and published with permission from Valuesportsbetting’s weekly form guide.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.
Match Comments
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Man United vs Leicester |
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Leicester haven’t really changed much from their winning campaign last season and on a rolling season basis they are still top of the league. Of course other teams have changed, not many expect Leicester to be top for much longer. That doesn’t mean there is no value in backing them in individual games. This is a good example, there is value backing Leicester on all metrics here. Particularly appealing is the Asian Handicap +1 line.
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Bournemouth vs Everton |
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Everton have started the season very well and it was a surprise to see them above 2.00 against a very poor home team in Bournemouth. Against similar opposition Everton are good value winning half their games, the away team have won 71% of their games when visiting Dean Court (grade 2 teams). An interesting stat here is the most common scorelines of 1-2 and 13 which have featued in 9 of 31 similar games.
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Liverpool vs Hull |
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The betting markets love affair with Liverpool continues, giving them a 79% chance of winning this game. Crazy pricing given they have won less than half their home games on a rolling season basis and only 64% against similar opposition. Liverpool may well win but you won’t be rewarded if they do and the standout value bet has to be Hull with a 2 goal lead. Liverpool have to win by 3 for you to lose your money, this has happened 4 times in 22 similar games.
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Middlesbrough vs Tottenham |
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We had to double check the odds for Spurs here. The best away team on a rolling basis against a promoted team paying odds against !! History is littered with similar matchups paying much less for the away team. Granted, there isn’t much to go on with Middlesbrough’s record but simply taking Spurs 20 similar games, the home team has been victorious in none, Spurs have won 15.
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Stoke vs West Brom |
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The Betting markets look to have this game about right. There is some value backing the draw when looking at the 24 similar games (occurred 9 times), otherwise this looks like a fairly uneventful game.
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Sunderland vs Crystal Palace |
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The betting markets have these two teams fairly close but we see some value in Palace whose form has picked up of late. When playing similar opposition Palace have actually won almost half their games, Sunderland have only won 22%. Palace on the Asian Handicap (0) looks to be the value selection with money back for the draw.
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Swansea vs Man City |
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As you’d expect, Swansea at home paying 9.00 are the value selection here. This game is a good example of how momentum is priced, when you compare this game to the Spurs game. The stats show that Spurs are a better away team than Man City (rollling season), Swansea are certainly more established than Middlesbrough yet Man City are 1.44 to overcome an arguably harder Swansea team, whilst the better Spurs are priced at 2.00 to beat a newly promoted team, that doesn’t make sense to us.
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Arsenal vs Chelsea |
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The big game of the weekend and there are mixed stats here with Arsenal value based on the overall record, Chelsea value on the asian handicaps and the draw value in similar games. With match odds probably best left alone, there does appear to be some value in backing under 2.5 goals which has happened in 18 of the 26 similar games featuring these two. 4 from 5 head to heads also backs this up.
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West Ham vs Southampton |
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There is definitely some value for West Ham here given the betting markets can’t really split these teams, both of whom have had average starts to the season. On both metrics (Overall and similar games) West Ham are value at these prices. Again this is backed up by the head to head record.
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Burnley vs Watford |
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Not much to go on here with both teams having incomplete EPL records. From the stats that are available, there are no clear value indicators and this game, from a stats and value perspective is probably best left alone.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.