The following are betting comments for Round 6 of the 2016-17 English Premier League season. These have been sourced and published with permission from Valuesportsbetting’s weekly form guide.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.
Match Comments
 |
Everton vs Crystal Palace |
 |
Another Friday night kick off sees two teams with excellent recent form go head to head. The stats favour Crystal Palace from a value perspective and looking at similar games the 5.20 for an away win looks tempting. This is backed up in the Asian Handicap markets showing Palace have won 86% of potential points when given a goal lead. Palace have also won 2 of the last 3 head to heads.
 |
Swansea vs Liverpool |
 |
This is one of 3 similarly priced games where the away team is heavy odds on to win. (the other two being, Hull Chelsea and Burnley Arsenal). In our experience these are often the games to side with the home team and this shows up in the stats with value for Swansea in both sets of data and the Asian Handicap.
 |
Hull vs Chelsea |
 |
This is one of 3 similarly priced games where the away team is heavy odds on to win. (the other two being, Swansea Liverpool and Burnley Arsenal). In our experience these are often the games to side with the home team and this shows up in the stats with value for Hull in both sets of data and the Asian Handicap.
 |
Sunderland vs West Brom |
 |
This game looks like last weeks Stoke v West Brom game with the betting markets pricing this about right, no real value anywhere other than a small amount on the draw, looking at the overall record of these two.
 |
Watford vs Bournemouth |
 |
Bournemouth have a reasonable away record and they are the value option here. Worth noting that there are not that many similar games in the sample so bear this in mind when looking at the stats.
 |
West Ham vs Middlesbrough |
 |
No Middlesborough record sees another low sample for the both sets of data. There is a slight skew towards West Ham but the strenth of the indicators in not that compelling.
 |
Man United vs Stoke |
 |
Looking at Stoke’s performances this season, this looks like a home win no brainer. But we are trying to identify value, not the winner and the value is with Stoke. What might put you off is looking at the similar record where Man united are also value….just. The home team has won 18 of 22 similar encounters featuring one of these two teams, an 82% chance for the home team, Man United are priced at a 73% chance.
 |
Leicester vs Southampton |
 |
Leicester have had a mixed start to the season but their home record is solid (two wins and a credible draw with Arsenal) and they look the value pick here against an unpredictable Southampton team. Both the overall and similar games records give Leicester an odds on chance (less than2.00), the betting markets are more generous with odds against (above 2.00).
 |
Tottenham vs Man City |
 |
This is undoubtedly the game of the week and will be a good test of Man Cities credentials. They are priced too short here according to the stats, against a solid Spurs Team. City’s other test so far this season was against Man United and they passed that with flying colours so it is hard to go against them, but if you are a true believer in the stats and value, thats what you need to do. Recent head to heads show big scores for the winning team.
 |
Burnley vs Arsenal |
 |
This is one of 3 similarly priced games where the away team is heavy odds on to win. (the other two being, Swansea Chelsea and Hull Chelsea). In our experience these are often the games to side with the home team and this shows up in the stats with value for Burnley in both sets of data and the Asian Handicap
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.