The following are betting comments for Round 8 of the 2016-17 English Premier League season. These have been sourced and published with permission from Valuesportsbetting’s weekly form guide.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.
Match Comments
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Chelsea vs Leicester |
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On a rolling season basis Leicester are still top of the league, albeit their form to date this season has been patchy at best. The stats suggest Leicester are still worth backing in some form, the only disclaimer here being the 2 thumpings they have received away from home this season.
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Arsenal vs Swansea |
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Swansea are the highest priced team this week with a difficult trip to Arsenal and at 13 the stats point to value for Swansea. There is still only a 13% chance of Swansea winning however and it is hard to back them, especially when Arsenal appear fair value (as opposed to being poor value). Perhaps the Asian Handicap markets is the way to go with Swansea picking up a 1.5 goal start. They have won similar games 58% of the time and are priced at 2.19 (45% chance).
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Man City vs. Everton |
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Everton have made a great start to the season and at 7.4 look value at first glance to get something in this game. However looking at similar games it is actually Man City that look to be the selection, the home team having won 77% of games featuring one of these two teams vs the betting markets probability of 66% for a city win.
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West Brom vs Tottenham |
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West Brom have a tendency to hold the best teams at the Hawthorns. Spurs in that case look too short here despite their excellent away record. All indicators point to value away from Spurs, on West Brom or the Draw. In 42% of similar games the draw has been seen in West Broms 19 similar home games.
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Stoke vs Sunderland |
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There are no clear indicators for this game with both teams prices evenly matched to their chances of winning. Both these teams come into some terrible form and this makes it even harder to find value.
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Bournemouth vs Hull |
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Not sure whats going on with the pricing of this match. At first glance we would say these teams are reasonably even in terms of ability. Home form doesn’t really count in Bournemouth’s favour given they have won most of their points away. For Bournemouth to be odds on here seems way too short and this is backed up by the stats that suggest Hull are worth siding with. The Asian Handicap looks particularly appealing given a 0.75 goal start for Hull. Similar games have seen the away team win 78% of the available points.
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Crystal Palace vs West Ham |
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Last seasons home record for Palace was terrible. West Ham’s away record was superb. Palace look to have turned the corner and find themselves in 7th. West Ham’s season has started terribly. So this game looks hard to predict. According to the Stats, however the value is clearly with West Ham, mainly due to that poor home record from Palace mentioned earlier.
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Middlesbrough vs Watford |
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No real form or stats for this game make it difficult to analyse. Off the small sample of games Watford edge this in terms of value.
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Southampton vs Burnley |
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Given Southampton’s mixed start to the season you couldn’t possibly back them to win this game at odds of 1.43, they have won 58% of their home games on a rolling season basis. Burnley don’t look that impressive either, although at least you are getting paid to back them. The Asian Handicap would be the obvious place to go here, however the stats suggest Southampton, even with a -1.5 goal start. This game is probably best left alone given the mixed signals.
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Liverpool vs Man United |
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The fixture list organisers have left the best game till last this weekend, unfortunately the betting markets have this game reasonably priced, even Liverpool look fair value here. These sorts of games are always hard to bet on as they really could go any way. The draw looks to be the value play here and at 3.70 looks good value given the dynamics of this game (evenly balanced, fierce rivalry).
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.