The following are betting comments for Round 10 of the 2016-17 English Premier League season. These have been sourced and published with permission from Valuesportsbetting’s weekly form guide.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.
Match Comments
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Sunderland vs Arsenal |
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Sunderland are value if you look at the overall records but against similar teams, poor grade opposition are Arsenals forte and although they aren’t value, neither are Sunderland at these high prices.
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Tottenham vs Leicester |
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Leicester have been abysmal away from home this season but its their form from last year that still counts on their record and they are value to win here. A Leicester win doesn’t look likely from form but the stats favour the high price. Maybe a better way to play this would be the Asian Handicap where the away team have taken 68% of available points in similar games, Leicester need to lose by 2 or more for you to lose that bet.
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Watford vs Hull |
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Watford are simply not good enough to warrant an odds on price at home regardless of the opposition. Here they are too short and there is value on the draw and away team or Hull on the Asian Handicap. Simple.
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Man United vs Burnley |
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Some people may be tempted by the massive 20-1 odds for a team that have beaten Everton and Liverpool this season (albeit at home). Man United are currently inconsistent and the prices are stacked against them from a value perspective. Stats that may stop one from placing a bet would be the fact that Burnley have not won a game against decent opposition away from home and have been on the wrong end of 3 heavy defeats away from home this season.
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West Brom vs Man City |
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Man City are too short here. They have an inconsistent away record on a rolling season basis and have failed to win in more than 50% of games against similar opposition. West Brom are value on price alone and their record isn’t particularly good especially when you look at the recent head to heads.
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Middlesbrough vs Bournemouth |
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This game is a real unknown on the basis of Middlebrough’s lack of record and Bournemouth’s recent entry to the top flight. This game would be best left alone on that basis solely.
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Crystal Palace vs Liverpool |
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Liverpool, for once look to have been priced correctly here. Palace are value and the draw is not, so this game is a tough one to call. Palace’s home form has not been best although they are good at keeping games tight. That suggests there is some value to back them with a 1 goal lead, given the home team has won 67% of points in similar games featuring one of these two teams.
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Everton vs West Ham |
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West Ham’s away form from last season has been good enough to see them as a value proposition in this fixture. This is helped by Everton winning only 30% of games against similar opposition, despite being priced as a 54% chance.
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Southampton vs Chelsea |
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If you looked at the stats and value only, this game would be one to avoid. Mixed signals for Southampton and Chelsea don’t appear value in any of the analysis and the Asian Handicap looks to have been priced correctly too.
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Stoke vs Swansea |
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Swansea with a 0.75 goal head start looks to be the value bet here. The away team have covered this line 18 times from 26 games, against similar opposition, be it Swansea themselves or the opposition of Stoke in similar games.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.