The following is a survey of runner by runner guides for the Melbourne Cup, race 7 (3 PM AEDT) at Flemington on Tuesday, November 1, 2016.
Almandin is a popular pick while Wicklow Brave and Grand Marshal are popular roughies. Many pundits feel race favourite Hartnell represents poor value.
More tips and previews will be added as they become available.
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1. Big Orange (UK) ($16)
Weight: 57kg
Jockey/Trainer: Spencer/Bell
Barrier: 7
Madbookie – Dan Mielecki:
Ran well in this race last year with 2kg less. Comes here in better form than last year. Tough and looks a top four chance. On pace runner.
William Hill – The Wolf:
Ran fifth in the Melbourne Cup last year at $61 beaten only 2.4L by Prince Of Penzance carrying 55.5kg. He was flattered by the slow tempo and carnage towards the back of the field though. We’ve only seen him four times since but he hasn’t finished outside of the placings. Exospheric beat him pointlessly three back before he turned the tables at his next outing in the Prince Of Wales. He then won the Goodwood Cup. Will get his favoured good track and flies fresh. He is a serious animal and one of the best two milers in Europe. Don’t underestimate him.
Predicted finish: 5th
The Betfair Insider:
Fifth in last years’ Melbourne Cup, Big Orange led at a slow tempo which was potentially detrimental to his chances as he was not able to match his rivals when the sprint went on. He’s since raced well in Dubai and has won twice (both at Group 2) level back home in the UK. He’s a more seasoned horse, in good form but hard to come into any top weight for the Melbourne Cup.
Unibet – Adam Campton:
Was sent around at big odds last year in this race and ran a very tough fifth. He’s much shorter in the market this year because his recent form is very good and he’ll make his own luck up on the speed. Barrier 7 is ideal for this horse and the distance is no concern, so he’s a must in all exotics.
Palmerbet – The Early Crow:
Has established himself as one of the world’s best stayers since finishing fifth in last year’s race with a second in the Dubai Gold Cup and a second straight Goodwood. Should be the leader from barrier seven and it will take a very good horse to run him down.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments by Best Bets:
Loves being up front. Gains significant weight relief here. Not out of this
2. Our Ivanhowe ($34)
Weight: 57kg
Jockey/Trainer: Dunn/Freedman
Barrier: 6
Madbookie – Dan Mielecki:
Battled away ok in the Caulfield Cup. Yet to win beyond 2400m. In the wider chances.
William Hill – The Wolf:
The Wolf had high hopes for this stayer over the spring. He has been disappointing to date though. He produced his best run of the campaign in the Caulfield Cup but without a wet track, it’s hard to see him making too much of an impression. Especially when he has five lengths to make up on Jameka alone. He finished 10th in the Cup last year. The Wolf is expecting another midfield finish for the German import.
Predicted finish: 14th
The Betfair Insider:
He’s racing consistently well for a genuine stayer and the 3200m looks ideal for him. His last start sixth in the Caulfield Cup to Jameka would have been pleasing for connections with the 7YO finishing the race off with the second best closing sectionals in the race. Having said all that he prefers the cut out of the ground to show his best and that looks unlikely.
Unibet – Adam Campton:
A German import who has mixed form since arriving in Australia. He was luckless in this race last year and should have finished a lot closer to the front of the pack, but this time in he has only been fair and that’s why I’m finding it hard to promote him up my order. He has good ability and has drawn perfectly, but I won’t be backing him because I don’t know which Our Ivanhowe will show up.
Palmerbet – The Early Crow:
Another backing up from 2015, the old gelding was an eye-catching run in the Caulfield Cup. Can put in a great race and is a Group 1 winner this year, but just not sure he has the class to win a Melbourne Cup.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments by Best Bets:
Backmarker who will appreciate the speed on. Yet to place past 2400 metres. Expect long odds.
3. Curren Mirotic (Japan) ($26)
Weight: 56.5kg
Jockey/Trainer: Berry/Hirata
Barrier: 18
Madbookie – Dan Mielecki:
Japanese stayer that hasn’t won for a while. He’s good on his day but lets himself down through inconsistency. Has been placed at both starts at 3200m. Can lead or race on pace. In the mix.
William Hill – The Wolf:
Would become the oldest ever Cup winner at the ripe old age of nine. Has only raced 37 times though. The biggest chink in the armour of this Japanese stayer is consistency. His second to Kitasan Black in the Tenno Sho three runs back is a strong reference for this and stacks up favourably to the likes of Fame Game and Admire Ratki. Curren Mirotic has been flat at his two runs since the Tenno but they were over 2200m. He is a genuine two miler. His best is up to winning this. His worst could see him run last. He’s the likely leader.
Predicted finish: 20th
The Betfair Insider:
You never want to dismiss a Japanese runner but this 9YO takes his place without a lead up run and with some long starting prices at his past two failures in Japan. Three starts back he run 2nd in the Group 1 Tenno Sho which has been a traditionally strong form reference for the Japanese horses but must be taken on trust after being well beaten since.
Unibet – Adam Campton:
This Japanese stayer has been racing pretty ordinary overseas. I don’t like potting these Japanese horses because they’ve proven time and time again how good they are, but I’m happy to take on this one because he’s yet to win past 2000m and he’s going to need a ton of luck from the wide draw.
Palmerbet – The Early Crow:
Arguably the most mysterious runner in the race and very hard to draw a line through how good his form is. You have to respect he has placed twice in the Tenno Sho over 3200m in Japan, so keep very safe.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments by Best Bets:
Beaten nose by outstanding Kitasan Black in G1 Tenno Sho in May, in quick time. Next two average but they were 2200m.
4. Bondi Beach (Ireland) ($9.50)
Weight: 56kg
Jockey/Trainer: Moore/O’Brien
Barrier: 5
Madbookie – Dan Mielecki:
The only time he has missed a place in his career was in this race last year. Form since has been good. Drawn well. Looks a winning chance.
William Hill – The Wolf:
Tackled the Cup last year and ran an inglorious 16th. It’s still the only time he has failed in 10 career starts. He has never missed a place otherwise. History suggests it is near impossible to turn around such a poor run in a Cup in the space of a year. Has been soundly beaten in his last two showings overseas but he’ll be right at the top of his game for his grand final. Will need to jump out of the ground to win though. Risking.
Predicted finish: 10th
The Betfair Insider:
Bondi Beach was sent to Australia for the 2015 Melbourne Cup as a Northern Hemisphere 3YO and had no luck in the race after racing wide and being buffeted in the straight. After a spell, Bondi Beach raced back home in Ireland taking out a Listed race by 2.8L and backed that up with a Group 3 win over 2816m by a length with an SP of $1.10. He’s raced twice since at Leopardstown (Ire) over 2414m at Group 3 level running third on both occasions. His 3YO form had him pinned as a potential star but he needs to jump sharply in rating here to win.
Unibet – Adam Campton:
Trained by Aidan O’Brien, this Irish galloper is a lightly raced stayer who is loaded with natural talent. He didn’t do much in this race 12 months ago but he was very immature back then and by all reports, he’s a more seasoned horse this time around. He’s trained by one of the best in the world, ridden by a freak and drawn well, but I can’t back him because he looks well under the odds at his current quote. If you’re going to back this horse, take the fixed odds on the day because I expect the totes to be skinny due to his Aussie name.
Palmerbet – The Early Crow:
One of the fancies in last year’s race, the stallion still only has ten starts to his name. Forget his run in 2015, he will improve on that effort. There are still big question marks over his ability over the distance and hasn’t had an Australian run this preparation.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments by Best Bets:
Arrived from last to place third last start. Yet to place past 2816 metres. Nicely weighted from last run. Comes into calculations.
5. Exospheric ($20)
Weight: 56kg
Jockey/Trainer: Oliver/Freedman
Barrier: 13
Madbookie – Dan Mielecki:
Found the line strong in the Caulfield Cup. Untried beyond 2414m. Meets (1) 2.5kg better for their last meeting. Another with a winning chance.
William Hill – The Wolf:
Equipped himself very well in the Caulfield Cup in running third. He showed no signs of dropping off across the line either which bodes well for the two miles now. Even though he has never raced beyond a mile and a half. There is no doubt improvement in him ahead of the Cup but is there enough? He has the run in Australia under the belt which is a big tick as far as the imports go.
Predicted finish: 6th
The Betfair Insider:
First seen for his new trainer (L & A Freedman) in the Caulfield Cup, he ran a pleasing third for connections. He’s yet to be tested over the 3200m with the 2400m of the Caulfield Cup being a ‘stretch’ on his previous distance form. He recorded the fifth best final section of the Caulfield Cup so prefer others at this distance.
Unibet – Adam Campton:
Another European import who showed good ability last start in the Caulfield Cup, finishing third to Jameka. His overseas form looks good and he will have taken a lot of benefit from his last start performance. Both trainer and jockey have tasted success in the Cup earlier on in their careers but I doubt they’ll be celebrating again this year because I don’t think this horse is ready to win a cup just yet.
Palmerbet – The Early Crow:
Was one of the best of the beaten brigade in the Caulfield Cup first-up working home nicely. Has a lot of form around Big Orange, with the pair trading wins this year. He is yet to tackle the 3200, but if he runs the trip he’s a massive chance.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments by Best Bets:
Arrived from second half of field to finish third last start. First attempt at this distance. Can place.
6. Hartnell ($5)
Weight: 56kg
Jockey/Trainer: McDonald/O’Shea
Barrier: 12
Madbookie – Dan Mielecki:
Looked unbeatable before his ego was brought back to earth at Moonee Valley, but he will be a better horse at Flemington. Thrashed Jameka in their most recent meeting. Has won at 3200m. Raced a little more dour last start. A concern that he hasn’t been beyond 2050m this prep. Class horse and well weighted.
William Hill – The Wolf:
On class he has these covered. His preparation has been spot on including beating up on Caulfield Cup winner Jameka in the Turnbull Stakes. Winx of course returned the spanking in the Cox Plate but there wouldn’t have been a horse in the world that could have matched her that day. But! And it’s a big but. The Wolf doubts his staying credentials. He is clearly going much better this preparation but his fourth in the Sydney Cup and 15th in last year’s Cup plant a big seed of doubt. He won at Ascot over two miles but that was as a three-year-old which is often flattering. Another knock is that he does his best work off moderate tempos. Risking.
Predicted finish: 9th
The Betfair Insider:
The Cup favourite, Hartnell has taken all before him this time in. He won the Chelmsford by 7.5L hard held, the Hill Stakes just as dominantly and then put 3.3L on Jameka in the Turnbull, also under hands and heels riding to the line. He controversially skipped the Caulfield Cup (a dominate favourite) to have his third consecutive start at 2000m (give or take the additional 40m of the Cox Plate) where he finished second to the champion mare Winx. He steps up the 3200m for the third time in Australia. At his first attempt he raced too keenly in the Sydney Cup when failing at the $1.70 favourite. At his next attempt in the 2015 Melbourne Cup you could argue that he wasn’t the same horse and finished a disappointing 15th. Without doubt he is in much better form this time around but he still does race a little keen and the question will be how much that will take out of him over the 3200m. I have great respect for him but is well found.
Unibet – Adam Campton:
A deserved favourite for the race this year because his form this time in has been top class. He was smashed by Winx last start, but he didn’t really handle the Valley so his run was very good. Hartnell will be better suited back at Flemington and I like that he had a hard hit out last start. If he can run out a strong 3200m then he’ll be the one to beat but I won’t be backing him because he’s well under the odds.
Palmerbet – The Early Crow:
Ignore the margin he was beaten in the Cox Plate, and forget he ever ran last year. The favourite has been simply outstanding this campaign with an almost flawless preparation. This is the grand final and he is flying.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments by Best Bets:
Likely to race handy behind leaders. Up in the markets.
7. Who Shot Thebarman ($34)
Weight: 56kg
Jockey/Trainer: Bowman/Waller
Barrier: 20
Madbookie – Dan Mielecki:
Placed in this race two years ago and got knocked down last year. Back in form after a good second in the Moonee Valley Cup. Doubt he is up to winning but place is not beyond him.
William Hill – The Wolf:
Lines up in his third Melbourne Cup. He ran third back in 2014 behind Protectionist. Isn’t getting any younger and despite his second in the Moonee Valley Cup last start, his best days look long gone. In his favour is that he absolutely loves the two mile trip. He is still only making up the numbers.
Predicted finish: 11th
The Betfair Insider:
Racing consistently well, ran second to Grand Marshall in last weeks Moonee Valley Cup. Lacks the X-factor to win a Melbourne Cup.
Unibet – Adam Campton:
Has been here twice before and he wasn’t disgraced on both occasions. He’s a tough old horse who will stay all day, but his barrier is a massive concern and now that he’s getting older he has lost a fair bit of zip out of his legs. If he can find some luck in running then he’ll finish mid-field or a touch better.
Palmerbet – The Early Crow:
The old boy is back again for his favourite race of the year. Absolutely no question whatsoever as to his ability to stay the two miles, but hard to know how well he’s going. A disappointing run in the Metropolitan was followed by an impressive Moonee Valley Cup. Can be thereabouts late.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments by Best Bets:
Prefers coming from behind. Meets harder company in this race. Others look better credentialed.
8. Wicklow Brave (Ireland) ($20)
Weight: 56kg
Jockey/Trainer: Dettori/Mullins
Barrier: 24
Madbookie – Dan Mielecki:
Tough stayer that has won six times at 3200m. Form is terrific. 4th to Big Orange three starts ago. Group 1 winner last start. Drawn badly in the outside gate.
William Hill – The Wolf:
Took the big scalp of Order Of St George in the Irish St Leger last start which put him right on the map as far as the Cup goes. Order Of St George has since franked the form in the Arc! He was able to dictate the race however it was a clear career peak. Not bad for an eight-year-old. Willie Mullins has had plenty of success in the Cup in the past few years with Simenon and Max Dynamite running well. The wiley trainer suggests that Wicklow is sharper then Max too. Player.
Predicted finish: 4th
The Betfair Insider:
He broke through for a much deserved Group 1 win last start in the Irish St Leger (2816m) holding off challenges from Order Of St George and Trip To Paris over the concluding stages. That’s top quality European staying form and carried 62kg on that occasion. His best form appears to be on the soft ground and if he can handle a dry track he’s one of the main dangers to Hartnell.
Unibet – Adam Campton:
An Irish galloper who has some very good form next to his name. His win in the Irish St Leger last start was awesome and by all reports he has been thriving in quarantine. The distance is no issue for this animal and his jockey is a freak so he has to be respected in this. He must be included in all exotics.
Palmerbet – The Early Crow:
Seems to love his runs spaced so first-up here shouldn’t be a big issue, and comes here on the back of winning the Irish St Ledger last start. However, that was against only three- albeit high quality- runners, and Frankie Dettori on top is always a risk.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments by Best Bets:
Came from middle of field to win last start. Gets huge weight advantage from previous outing. Not hopeless.
9. Almoonqith ($21)
Weight: 54.5kg
Jockey/Trainer: Walker/Hayes
Barrier: 19
Madbookie – Dan Mielecki:
Ran on well in the Caulfield Cup. That was clearly his best run this prep. Peaking at the right time. Place chance at odds.
William Hill – The Wolf:
Looked to have lost his way this preparation but David Hayes kept the faith and maintained we wouldn’t see the best of him until he got to the Cups. He was right. He had the flashing light on his head in the Caulfield Cup, closing hard to run fourth. Has won a Sandown Cup over the two miles beating The Offer and Grand Marshall. Could be a sneaky place hope.
Predicted finish: 8th
The Betfair Insider:
He closed the Caulfield Cup with the fastest final sectional indicating the step up to 3200m looks ideal this time in. He had no luck in the 2015 Cup and appears to be in better form this time around. Drawn 19, he’ll be charging from the rear but looks a good chance to fill the top 4 at good odds.
Unibet – Adam Campton:
A good stayer on his day and his last start run was a great trial for this race. He’s another horse who’ll need luck from the draw but if he can settle throughout the run then he’ll be running on strongly late.
Palmerbet – The Early Crow:
Ran a big race at odds in the Caulfield Cup but looked legless prior to that. Hard to know if he’s travelling better than last year when he had no luck, but he does have a good record over the distance and gets in with a relatively light weight.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments by Best Bets:
Generally gets back. Needs to be at best to be competitive.
10. Gallante ($61)
Weight: 54.5kg
Jockey/Trainer: Shinn/Hickmott
Barrier: 2
Madbookie – Dan Mielecki:
Good stayer but he needs a wet track. All his wins have been on soft ground and therefore might find a firm track not to his liking. Strong stayer and another on pacer.
William Hill – The Wolf:
Ran a solid, albeit distant, second to Jameka in the Naturalism first-up which had him right on track for a Cup cameo but he was very plain in the Moonee Valley Cup last start. However, it might pay to be forgiving given the way the track played. It was suicide to lead into the headwind and stay close to the fence. Led all the way in the Sydney Cup over the spring. Don’t think he is going any worse than then. Don’t like how this race sets up for him. Doubt he can lead and if he can, won’t have it easy.
Predicted finish: 21st
The Betfair Insider:
Winner of the 2016 Sydney Cup, Gallante needs to bounce back off a last start 13.8L seventh in the Moonee Valley Cup. Not for me.
Unibet – Adam Campton:
Is fitter now after two runs back, has won over the distance and has drawn perfectly but he would have to start now if he was going to win. His last start effort was poor and his form doesn’t read well.
Sportsbet – Bruce Clark:
Best roughie – this year’s Sydney Cup winner who was terrific alongside Jameka in the Naturalism earlier this campaign before not appreciating the ground in the Moonee Valley Cup.
Palmerbet – The Early Crow:
The winner of this year’s Sydney Cup, he has had a very similar preparation heading into this. Happy to forgive his last start a Moonee Valley when he was just a run short. From barrier two he should bounce out and be one of the leaders and could take some catching.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments by Best Bets:
Has speed to race on the pace. Tougher going here. Will struggle to measure up to these.
11. Grand Marshal ($31)
Weight: 54.5kg
Jockey/Trainer: Melham/Waller
Barrier: 9
Madbookie – Dan Mielecki:
Got that bit of sting out of the ground which gave him that little extra at Moonee Valley. Has come good at the right time. Place claims best.
William Hill – The Wolf:
Bounced back to form in the Moonee Valley Cup last start beating Who Shot Thebarman (see replay above). He was skittled in last year’s Cup after a luckless Caulfield Cup run. He is a genuine two miler having already won the 2015 Sydney Cup (where Hartnell was a $1.60F), placed in last year’s Sydney Cup and run third in the Sandown Cup. All that said, he lacks the class to land a big upset.
Predicted finish: 15th
The Betfair Insider:
Winner of last weeks Moonee Valley Cup when really stretching out nicely to defeat Who Shot Thebarman. Like many, was severely hampered in the 2015 Melbourne Cup and then ran a huge race when finishing well to Gallante in this years Sydney Cup. He drops 3.5kg from his last run has drawn perfectly in barrier 9 and looks a real smokey to run a big race on Tuesday. The $41 on offer now is value.
Unibet – Adam Campton:
One of my favourite stayers because he always tries his best. His last start win was good and the distance is no concern so I’m expecting a big run. I’ll have something on this horse because he’s peaking at the right time and he’s great each way value.
Palmerbet – The Early Crow:
Didn’t even look like firing a shot this preparation before coming alive to win the Moonee Valley Cup against many runners in this field. Two 2400m runs in a row is the perfect grounding for this, and with a great 3200m record and the best trainer in the land you have to give him a chance.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments by Best Bets:
Came from second half of field to win last start. Loves this distance. More competitive horses this time. Not expected to threaten this time.
12. Jameka ($7)
Weight: 54.5kg
Jockey/Trainer: Hall/Maher
Barrier: 3
Madbookie – Dan Mielecki:
Hard to fault her. In super form and won by a big space in the Caulfield Cup. Some query at the trip as she has not been beyond 2500m. Top chance.
William Hill – The Wolf:
This mare has had a near faultless preparation. She dominated the Caulfield Cup to run out one of the most impressive winners of the modern era. The last Melbourne Cup winner to come out of the Caulfield Cup was Delta Blues in 2006. The last four-year-old mare to win the Cup was Ethereal in 2001 with 52kg. Prior to that it was Let’s Elope way back in 1991 who carried just 51kg. That goes to show the enormity of the task ahead of Jameka with 53.5kg. Not prepared to discount her though. She is flying and despite her breeding, looks like she’ll get two miles.
Predicted finish: 3rd
The Betfair Insider:
A dominate 3L winner of the Caulfield Cup, Jameka was able to overcome a mid race ‘anchor drop’ where she threw her head around when the speed dropped before surging away from her rivals over the concluding stages. The step to 3200m is a question mark, but judging by the arrogance of her Caulfield Cup victory I don’t see it as a major issue. She looks a great chance should she switch off and a definite top three player as the market has suggested.
Unibet – Adam Campton:
Won the Caulfield Cup brilliantly last start and she has gone to a new level this time in, but she doesn’t settle in her races and that’s a concern for a horse who is trying to run 3200m. She will get every chance from barrier 3 and her trainer will have her rock hard fit on Tuesday, but I think she is unders at her current quote so I’m happy to bet around her.
Palmerbet – The Early Crow:
Another who enters the race on the back of a flawless preparation which included dominating the rest of the field in the Caulfield Cup. This is her first attempt at the Cup distance, but everything suggests she will get the trip. She’s the one to beat.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments by Best Bets:
Should be close to chasing group. Untried at this distance. Should be competitive.
13. Heartbreak City (Ireland) ($14)
Weight: 54kg
Jockey/Trainer: Moreira/Martin
Barrier: 23
Madbookie – Dan Mielecki:
Won two hurdle races in a row in Ireland before winning the Ebor in England. Respecting of his last start romp in a good field. In the mix.
William Hill – The Wolf:
Arrives in Melbourne in the form of his life having won three on the trot including the Ebor Handicap last start which is Europe’s richest staying handicap. Purple Moon and All The Good are notable winners of the Ebor. Tends to mix hurdle and flat racing but that hasn’t stopped horses with that same profile from running well in the Cup in the past. Looks nicely in with 53kg which gives him an obvious hope. Just needs to peak again though. Can he do that?
Predicted finish: 12th
The Betfair Insider:
He’s won his past three races in Ireland and England. His last start victory was in the Ebor Heritage Handicap by an impressive 4L and is certainly a horse on the rise over in Europe. He’s a lightly raced 7YO and although mixing his form across the flat and hurdles he looks to arrive here in peak form. Joao Moreira has been booked to ride and looks weighted to win.
Unibet – Adam Campton:
A pretty ordinary horse early on in his career but he has gone to a new level recently and I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he won. His win in the Ebor was dominant and by all reports, he has settled in well since arriving but the Magic Man Moreira will have to give this a freakish ride if he’s going to win from barrier 23. He’s a big chance if he gets luck.
Sportsbet – Bruce Clark:
My other international is Heartbreak City ($16), the Irish-trained former hurdler, who was exceptional winning Britain’s best handicap race, The Ebor, before coming here. And any horse raced by the “Here For The Craic’ syndicate will get me in.
Palmerbet – The Early Crow:
Winner of his last three, the gelding was racing in a $14,000 maiden hurdle only three starts ago. If you can ignore that fact, there’s no doubt he will stay all day and did win the Ebor Handicap last start.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments by Best Bets:
Should do best work late. Value hope.
14. Sir John Hawkwood ($81)
Weight: 54kg
Jockey/Trainer: Spriggs/Thompson
Barrier: 14
Madbookie – Dan Mielecki:
Got shuffled back after an early check in the Caulfield Cup. Query at 3200m. Form before last start was excellent. Rough chance.
William Hill – The Wolf:
Like a bottle of wine, this bloke just keeps getting better with age. Won the G1 Metrop with plenty of authority before being found out a touch in the Caulfield Cup. That doesn’t bode well for his Cup chances. Nor does the fact that he is untried at the 3200m trip. Reports are that this start will be his swansong. Win, lose or draw it’s a great way to bow out!
Predicted finish: 22nd
The Betfair Insider:
Didn’t do enough for mine in the Caulfield Cup so happy for him to go around with out me here.
Unibet – Adam Campton:
Won the Metrop two starts ago in nice style and then in the Caulfield Cup last start he finished 10th but didn’t have the best of luck. He’s a nice stayer but he does need to improve a lot if he’s going to win on Tuesday.
Palmerbet – The Early Crow:
An ultra-consistent performer, the gelding seemed to have found his level in the Caulfield Cup against the big boys. With question marks over his class, and this being his first attempt at 3200m I’m happy to risk.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments by Best Bets:
Likes to swoop from midfield. Yet to be tested over this distance. Fighting out of class here.
15. Excess Knowledge ($61)
Weight: 53.5kg
Jockey/Trainer: Duric/Waterhouse
Barrier: 21
Madbookie – Dan Mielecki:
Will have to find a few lengths. Going ok but can’t have.
William Hill – The Wolf:
Doesn’t look to have the same form on paper going into this year’s Cup as he did last year which saw him run a very credible seventh but this year Gai Waterhouse has had the luxury of knowing he is already in the field. Has been steadily working into his campaign and should be right at his top for Tuesday. Will that be good enough to win a Cup? No, but he won’t disgrace himself.
Predicted finish: 19th
The Betfair Insider:
Gai Waterhouse and her ‘bone & muscle’ training style will see Excess Knowledge peaking on the day however he is very one paced and wasn’t able to match it with the likes of Grand Marshal in last weeks Moonee Valley Cup. Prefer others.
Unibet – Adam Campton:
Is racing consistently without winning this time in and his run in the race last year was okay but he has drawn horribly in barrier 21 and I would be very shocked if this horse had a Melbourne Cup win next to his name. This horse is not hopeless but he should be racing against easier opposition.
Palmerbet – The Early Crow:
While he’s not setting the world on fire, there has been a lot to like about his preparation coming into the Cup. There are a lot of miles in the legs and he hasn’t been finishing too far away. Not the worst.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments by Best Bets:
Likely to get cover behind chasing pack. Yet to place past 2500 metres. Faces stronger opposition than in previous start. Too much depth here.
16. Beautiful Romance (UK) ($51)
Weight: 52.5kg
Jockey/Trainer: Lane/Bin Suroor
Barrier: 1
Madbookie – Dan Mielecki:
Mare untried beyond 2414m. Hard to weigh up her form lines. Looks as if she will need to improve. Have many other imports ahead of her.
William Hill – The Wolf:
Lightly-race five-year-old mare that has so far managed to slip right under the radar. Her current record reads 10:3-0-3. Yet to tackle 3200m. Doesn’t have the profile of a Cup winner and on what she has done in the past, she’d need to go to a whole new level. Unlikely.
Predicted finish: 17th
The Betfair Insider:
A lightly raced 5YO mare, she finished fifth in the Hardwicke Stakes behind the talented Dartmouth and Highland Reel, defeating the likes of Wicklow Brace and Exospheric. The distance is a query with most of her form over 2400m and below.
Unibet – Adam Campton:
Has drawn pole position so he should get a perfect run behind the speed but I can’t see him winning because his form isn’t very good.
Palmerbet – The Early Crow:
The typical lightly raced Godolphin import we get to see every year. There’s nothing in her form to suggest she’s close to the class needed to win a race like this and she’s yet to be tested over this distance.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments by Best Bets:
Usually settles around midfield. First attempt at this distance. Huge weight relief here. Prefer others in this race.
17. Almandin ($16)
Weight: 52kg
Jockey/Trainer: McEvoy/Hickmott
Barrier: 17
Madbookie – Dan Mielecki:
In peak form. 30 days between runs. Has got better with every run this prep. Good stayer. Each way.
William Hill – The Wolf:
This seven-year-old has hit form at exactly the right time. Owner Lloyd Williams has won the Cup on four occasions already so he knows how to peak them on the first day in November. Almandin smashed stablemate Assign two back (who has since won himself) before putting the sword to Zanteca. That’s B Grade form but it’s the manner in which he is winning that excites The Wolf. Has never run over two miles but being by Monsun, he should have no troubles seeing out the trip. Add into the mix one of the country’s best staying jockeys Kerrin McEvoy. Has taken the scalp of Protectionist in Germany. There’s a real sense of timing about him.
Predicted finish: 2nd
The Betfair Insider:
The lightly raced 7YO is in top form having won the Harry White Classic (Listed) and the Bart Cummings (G3) at his past two starts. On both occasions he really ran through the line, which would be very pleasing for connections heading into a Melbourne Cup. He loses Oliver but is replaced by McEvoy and is value at $18 mark.
Unibet – Adam Campton:
Came from off the pace to score a very nice win in the Bart Cummings last start at Flemington. He’s my top selection in the Cup because he has a very nice turn of foot and you need that in this race. The drop in weight is a big tick, he’ll run the distance and there’s no-one riding better than Kerrin McEvoy at the moment. Macca will settle him just off the speed and save him up for one big sprint at the business end of the race.
Sportsbet – Bruce Clark:
The best value is Almandin ($13), another down in the handicaps (52kg) and another bringing in brilliant form and any horse who has won races called the Harry White and the Bart Cummings at their past two starts has a Cup at his mercy.
Palmerbet – The Early Crow:
A very good Cup preparation, even if he has avoided most of the big boys in doing so. There was a lot of like about his last start win in the Bart Cummings, and the fact he’s won his last two over 2500m. Kerrin McEvoy is icing on the cake for one of the real chances.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments by Best Bets:
Came from middle of field to win last start. Untried at this distance. Drops sharply in weight. Place chance best.
18. Assign ($61)
Weight: 52kg
Jockey/Trainer: Mallyon/Hickmott
Barrier: 22
Madbookie – Dan Mielecki:
Just scraped home at Caulfield in a traditionally good lead up race. This is stronger but has hit form. Outside chance.
William Hill – The Wolf:
Think he is a bit part player as far as the Llloyd Williams army goes. He dug deep to win the Herbert Power but only narrowly beat Big Memory and Pemberley. They’d both be a million to one if they were in the Cup. Prior to that he was beaten by 2L by stablemate Almandin. He’s got a big ticker and maintains the services of Katie Mallyon but this looks a bridge too far.
Predicted finish: 18th
The Betfair Insider:
A tough on pace stayer, he won the Herbert Power at his last start over 2400m but the step up to 3200m appears unfavourable.
Unibet – Adam Campton:
Led from start to finish in the Herbert Power last start and I expect him to roll forward again in this race but I highly doubt that he’ll be winning again. He’s up in class and drawn horribly, so I’m happy to leave him out of my selections.
Palmerbet – The Early Crow:
Has come alive since getting out over the staying trips this preparation, with a win last start in the Herbert Power. Barrier 22 is a real concern given he like to be on pace, and he does look a notch below stablemate Almandin.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments by Best Bets:
Jumped sharply to 2400m and ran second to Almandin (gap third), who then won well again. Led/tough win latest.
19. Grey Lion ($34)
Weight: 52kg
Jockey/Trainer: Boss/Cumani
Barrier: 16
Madbookie – Dan Mielecki:
Battling run in the Geelong Cup and will need to find a few lengths. Can’t have.
William Hill – The Wolf:
Ran a great second in the Geelong Cup behind Qewy and drops 4kg from the run. That was the best effort he has ever produced in his 12 start career which bodes well for his future in Australia under the care of Matt Cumani. Has tackled 3000m once before and ran an inglorious last…
Predicted finish: 13th
The Betfair Insider:
Chased Qewy all the way in the Geelong Cup and was brave but he had Oceanographer bearing down on him hard and I cant see him holding off that horse on Tuesday.
Unibet – Adam Campton:
Comes into this race after finishing second to Qewy in the Geelong Cup. His wide barrier is a bit of a concern but Glen Boss is riding him and he knows how to give one a peach ride in the Cup. He’ll stick on but I don’t think he has the X-factor to win the Cup.
Palmerbet – The Early Crow:
Had little form to speak of heading into the Geelong Cup where he finished second by a narrow margin. He should only improve on the back of that run, but big question marks over whether he has the class of the other imports.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments by Best Bets:
Not expected to get too far back. First attempt at this distance. Going up in grade. Maybe another time.
20. Oceanographer (UK) ($8)
Weight: 52kg
Jockey/Trainer: Chad Schofield/Appleby (Godolphin)
Barrier: 11
Madbookie – Dan Mielecki:
In excellent form. If he backs up from Saturday looks a strong winning chance. The extra will suit. Top four chance.
William Hill – The Wolf:
This five-year-old is clearly loving his time in Australia. He ran a gallant third in the Geelong Cup before taking out the Luxus Stakes on Saturday in brilliant fashion. It was as good as a Cup trial you’ll ever see. He can run some monster late sectionals. He’ll be out to emulate Shocking who in 2009 won the Lexus/Cup double. Before he arrived in Melbourne he was hammered by 9L by Heartbreak City in the Ebor. Of course that counts form something but history says the imports with a run under their belt in Australia, perform much better. Also gets the services of gun lightweight rider Chad Schofield.
Predicted finish: 1st
The Betfair Insider:
Has quickly rocketed into second favourite after a strong showing in the Geelong Cup before backing that up 10 days later in Saturday’s Lexus Stakes where reeling in the tearaway leader Tom Melbourne. He has a lovely long action which looks very suitable to the 3200m and a turn of foot. He was no match for the likes of Heartbreak City back home but appears to be flying down under. A genuine threat as the market has predicted but three runs in 13 days is a big negative for mine.
Unibet – Adam Campton:
A serious stayer that has shown very good ability in both his Aussie runs. His first-up run was good but his last start effort in the Lexus was awesome. He deserves to be one of the favourites because he’s a top class horse and his trainer is a brilliant horseman. If he can handle the quick back up then he’ll be finishing in the top three.
Sportsbet – Bruce Clark:
It’s impossible to ignore what Oceanographer ($7.50) did on Saturday winning the Lexus. What a performance and I loved the way he charged not just past Tom Melbourne but through the line and on as if 3200m in a few days was absolutely perfect.
Palmerbet – The Early Crow:
Finished third as favourite in the Geelong Cup before sustaining a huge run to claim his place in the field by winning the Lexus on Saturday. I have huge question marks over the form of both those races, especially given he was beaten nine lengths by Heartbreak City in the Ebor.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments by Best Bets:
Came from second half of field to win last start. Untried at this distance. Could go close.
21. Secret Number ($34)
Weight: 52kg
Jockey/Trainer: Baster/Bin Suroor (Godolphin)
Barrier: 10
Madbookie – Dan Mielecki:
Has only had one run since running second during the carnival last year. Won first-up. This has been a long range plan to be set for this. Top four chance.
William Hill – The Wolf:
Was in Australia last year for Godolphin but missed out on a Cup run. Instead he tackled the Queen Elizabeth and went down as favourite behind Dandino. Has only been seen once since then – where he recorded a big win in the Doonside Cup at Listed level. He is seven years old but still has enormous upside. Who knows what his ceiling is. He is the big sleeper in the field and The Wolf will be keeping him in his numbers.
Predicted finish: 7th
The Betfair Insider:
We’ve seen him once in Australia and that was an impressive second to Dandino in the Queens Cup at Flemington. He had almost a year off and returned with a listed win over 2012m by a length and a half. The stable looks to have set him up for this race with a taste of Australian racing back in 2015. I like the preparation for him and he’s a knockout runner at $41.
Unibet – Adam Campton:
A talented stayer who came out to Australia last year and ran second to Dandino in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He has only had one start since his Australian run last year, so he’s a hard horse to assess but the ability is there and I think he could run a huge race at good odds. Barrier 10 is ideal and this horse will really appreciate no weight on his back.
Palmerbet – The Early Crow:
Has only had the one start since finishing second in the Queen’s Cup during last year’s carnival. Only lightly raced, but rarely turns in a poor performance, even if he is yet to be tested at anything close to this level.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments by Best Bets:
Prefers to be in the middle of the field. Yet to be tested over this distance. Gains significant weight relief here. Fancy others here.
22. Pentathlon ($126)
Weight: 51.5kg
Jockey/Trainer: Du Plessis/Wheeler
Barrier: 4
Madbookie – Dan Mielecki:
Hard to have on Saturday’s effort.
William Hill – The Wolf:
Kiwi mare who looks way out of her depth. Ran fourth in the same Auckland Cup as Rose Of Virginia. Her form in Australia is a touch better than that horse but it’s hardly inspiring. Was a distant third in the Moonee Valley Cup defying her odds of $61. She then ground home to run seventh in the Lexus. No.
Predicted finish: 23rd
The Betfair Insider:
Not going well enough and is outclassed here.
Unibet – Adam Campton:
This is a very tough Kiwi stayer who’ll run all day at a very slow pace if you asked him. He’s not hopeless at the big odds but he does lack a turn of foot and that is a worry in this great race.
Palmerbet – The Early Crow:
Hasn’t finished close to many of the other runners in this in three Australian starts this preparation. Hard to see him in the first half of the field.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments by Best Bets:
Usually tags on to second half of field. Rises in class. Dismiss this time.
23. Qewy (UK) ($31)
Weight: 51.5kg
Jockey/Trainer: Williams/Appleby
Barrier: 15
Madbookie – Dan Mielecki:
Strong staying win in the Geelong Cup. The extra trip will suit even better. Oceanographer has franked the form. Another import with a top four chance.
William Hill – The Wolf:
Produced a really tough staying effort to lead all of the way in the Geelong Cup. Has plenty of experience over the distance and over hurdles so he won’t be throwing in the towel come the clock tower. What he does lack to win a Cup though is a turn of foot.
Predicted finish: 16th
The Betfair Insider:
Winner of the Geelong Cup, he was ridden on speed and pulled out plenty to hold off Grey Lion and the fast finishing Oceanographer. I don’t think he’ll be ridden as aggressively on Tuesday and although Oceanographer was coming at him hard at Geelong, I think he can stay just as well when ridden quietly and there shouldn’t be such a gap in their prices. A good chance at odds.
Unibet – Adam Campton:
Went forward and stuck on well to win the Geelong Cup last start. I expect him to be fitter now and he’ll stay all day but there looks to be a lot of speed and I think he’ll get tired late.
Palmerbet – The Early Crow:
There was a lot to like about his front-running win in the Geelong Cup which was his first and only Australian start to date. His European form does look a notch below some of the other runners, but I love that he will be on pace and has had that start since arriving. A great each-way chance.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments by Best Bets:
Likes to settle with cover behind leaders. Meets harder company in this race. Hard to recommend here.
24. Rose Of Virginia ($201)
Weight: 51kg
Jockey/Trainer: Thompson/Hope
Barrier: 8
Madbookie – Dan Mielecki:
Can’t have.
William Hill – The Wolf:
Former Kiwi who now calls Seymour home with Lee and Shannon Hope. Ran second in the 2016 Auckland Cup over two miles but has done very little in her four runs in Australia. The latest was an inglorious 11th in the Lexus. Has started $151, $101, $101 and $71 in those four runs too. Should be $1000 on Tuesday. Another big no.
Predicted finish: 24th
The Betfair Insider:
The old saying “is running around for the members tickets” comes to mind! Beaten 15L on Saturday by Oceanographer and looks no hope on turning that margin around.
Unibet – Adam Campton:
Went awful in the Lexus Sakes on the weekend and I’m surprised this horse even made the Cup field. I can’t see her winning the race or even running in the top 20 but all the best to connections and it’s good to see a young apprentice get a ride in this great race. This horse would need to start now.
Palmerbet – The Early Crow:
The second place getter in the Auckland Cup earlier in the year, she has not come close in any of her starts this preparation. Looks a little out of her depth at this level.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments by Best Bets:
Should be close to chasing group. Yet to win past 2200 metres. Tougher going here. Looking elsewhere.