The following is a selection of racing tips for Thursday, November 3, 2016. The focus is on Oaks Day at Flemington but selected races at Hawkesbury are also covered.
More tips and previews will be added as they become available.
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Best bet of the day
Flemington Race 8, No.1 Yankee Rose
Flemington
Current Track Rating: Good 3
Rail: +3m
Weather forecast: Max 19, partly cloudy, 10% chance of rain
Race 3, No.1 Rock Forthe Ladies (3.5 star bet)
Race 5, No.5 Righteous Mate (2 star bet)
Race 7, No.4 Hellbent (4 star bet)
Race 9, No.4 Spright (4 star bet)
Quaddie: 1,3,5,11 / 1,4 / 1 / 4
Race 8: Crown Oaks
The more you try to make a case against Yankee Rose, the more confident you become. She’ll be winning. Here it is all laid out for you. She was 3.5L off Astern in the Golden Rose when ridden upside down, then was beaten half a length by Global Glamour (who subsequently accounted for Myer winner I Am A Star in the Thousand Guineas), before beating Derby winner Prized Icon in the Spring Champion. Not enough? She then ran third in the Cox Plate beaten less than a length by Hartnell. It’s simply a matter of how far in the Oaks. Eleonora to run second.
Race 1:
Wide open race to kick off the day. SEA THE SPARKLE is a mare that will continue to take big steps with each run. She’ll love being able to balance up on the big track so will be strong late. MOUNT OMEI will take a good step off her fresh run. If she has any luck getting cover she’ll be steaming home. TAVI BAY looks to have been set for this with some solid trials. She’ll be strong late. Many more chances including, HELL OR HIGHWATER, CHAMPAGNE READY and ALL THAT I KNOW.
Race 2:
COOL CHAP had trialled in outstanding style before just a fair fresh run but he quickly turned that around 2nd-up when just missing. Suited up in trip, he’ll be hard to beat on the big track. DATA POINT and PILOTE D’ESSAI have let the punters down all prep at short quotes but they both look very well placed again here. No surprise if either got up here. THE CHAIRMAN is still on the rise and gets a perfect run. MAVEN WIZ, HARDERN, BOOM TIME and CURRAGH all go in exotics.
Race 3:
Best Edition of the greys race for some years. ROCK FORTHE LADIES has had a perfect preparation for this. He’ll drop in midfield and he’ll get the drop on all the main dangers, he’ll be hard to beat despite the big weight. FABULONH and HARBOUR GREY both look well placed on the minimum. In peak form with soft runs, they’ll both run well. ONEROUS and MURT THE FLIRT both have strong claims in a deep race.
Race 4:
PAY UP BRO will enjoy the huge drop in weight and the mile looks ideal. With even luck getting cover he will be charging over them late. REFULGENT is your typical Weir runner, he just keeps on racing well. With a perfect run, he’ll be hard to beat. GRANDE ROSSO still has more upside this prep and he was a soft winner last start. MIHANY can bounce back, he looks like controlling the front.
Race 5:
EXOCET finished right alongside I Am A Star last start when both were caught in the slow lane. With that form franked on the weekend, she can beat the boys. RIGHTEOUS MATE was impressive late when breaking through last start. He’s got so much improvement in him he has to be hard to beat. ROCKSTAR REBEL is a promising horse. He’ll give away a start but will launch late. NEMRUD can bounce back and HESSDALEN has claims.
Race 6:
Watch for a sharp spike from CLEARLY INNOCENT out to this trip. With more speed on up front he’ll be charging at them late. AKAVOROUN comes off a big run and he’s well placed kept fresh. From the good gate, he’s sure to run well. TAKEDOWN is airborne this prep. If he has any luck going forward he’ll be there a long way despite the weight. RAGEESE and FEDERAL both have claims and big betting watch AROD back in Australia.
Race 7:
HELLBENT was an outstanding win last start and the form is strong out of the race. Suited by the strong speed up front he should run over the top of them. TERRAVISTA will enjoy not taking on top grade. He always fires fresh and he races well here. He’ll also charge home. GOLDEN SPIN can be a big improver. Expect him to race much closer and REDZEL will charge along in front and could hang on for a place.
Race 8 (Crown Oaks):
Impossible to tip against YANKEE ROSE. She comes here with identical sort of form to Samantha Miss and these classy fillies always prove too good. HARLOW GOLD is the query. She did finish right alongside the Derby winner last start so can lift up in trip, onto the bigger track. ELEONORA should get the perfect run. The Tiamo Grace form reads strong. SEBRING DREAM and SMART AS YOU THINK next best with some luck going back from wide gates.
Race 9:
Wide open race to finish a big card. OVERSTEP only went down late in a strong race last start. She’ll be somewhere on the pace and she’ll run it out strong. Could take catching. HEAR THE CHANT showed her best with more luck last start and still has good upside. She’s a big danger. SUPER TOO was big here last start in the worst part of the track. SPRIGHT, FAITH’S ENCORE and KENTUCKY MISS bring strong Sydney form and ROSA CAROLINA has claims.
R6 L’Oreal Paris Stakes G3 1400m
LAY (WIN) Rageese – 10 units at $6 or less.
BACK (WIN) Hooked – 2 units at $21 or more
R8 Crown Oaks G1 2500m
BACK (WIN) Yankee Rose – 20 units at $1.50 or more
R9 Gucci Stakes G3 1100m
BACK (WIN) Kentucky Miss – 2 units at $5 or more
BACK (WIN) Super Too – 3 units at $8 or more
Race 8 tips:
1: Yankee Rose
2: Harlow Gold
3: Eleonara
4: Smart As You Think
Another play might be the running double or all-up as Hellbent ($2.10) from the Mumm Stakes into the Oaks. The now Darren Weir-trained sprinter was brilliant at Caulfield beating Sheidel (who has won two since obviously).
Race 6 tips:
Best bet:
1. Akavoroun (scratched)
2. Rageese
3. Federal
Value:
Amovatio
BEST BET: Race 8 #1 YANKEE ROSE
BEST EACH-WAY: Race 3 #2 ONEROUS / Race 4 #4 GRANDE ROSSO / Race 5 #13 EXOCET / Race 7 #1 TERRAVISTA
BEST VALUE: Race 1 #9 HONEY CARA / Race 9 #3 TWIST TOPS
Race 1 12:15pm 1700m (3&4yo fillies and mares’ BM70)
11. ARTESIAN from 3, 9, 5
Race 2 12:55pm 1800m (4&5yo BM90)
16. DATA POINT from 3, 2, 7
Race 3 1:35pm 1400m (greys only BM90)
2. ONEROUS from 4, 1, 6
Race 4 2:15pm 1600m
4. GRANDE ROSSO from 1, 6, 11
Race 5 2:55pm 1800m (Connoisseur Stakes)
13. EXOCET from 10, 5, 4
Race 6 3:35pm 1400m (Chatham Stakes Group 3)
11. CLEARLY INNOCENT from 1, 3, 13
Race 7 4:15pm 1000m (Mumm Stakes)
1. TERRAVISTA from 4, 2, 3
Race 8 5:00pm 2500m (Crown Oaks Group 1)
1. YANKEE ROSE from 7, 3, 5
Race 9 5:45pm 1100m (Red Roses Stakes)
3. TWIST TOPS from 4, 2, 14
Race 2: PILOTE D’ESSAI
Race 6: CLEARLY INNOCENT
Race 7: TERRAVISTA
Other Venues
Hawkesbury Race 2, No.3 Baltic Whisper (3 star bet)
Hawkesbury Quaddie: 2 / 1,3 / 8 / 1,2,3,5,7
Hawkesbury Race 7: Ladies Day Cup
No excuses for Religify now third-up on a dry track and at his pet 1400m trip. He gave plenty of cheek first-up at Randwick before being nabbed on the line before stripping fitter again second-up but Rock Forthe Ladies pinched him on the post again with the 4.5kg swing the difference. Given his racing style he needs to be rock-hard fit and he is now. The Wolf is confident he’ll be winning. The likes of Mighty Lucky, Charlie Boy and Famous Seamus are classy but not in form.
Hawkesbury Race 7: Ladies Day Cup
RELIGIFY very good in both runs this time in being run down late on both occasions. Gets some weight relief and right in the mix. MIGHTY LUCKY well beaten in the Epsom but did cover ground in the run. Just over a length from the winner in the Bill Ritchie resuming two runs back. Looks well placed here. CENTRE PIVOT well beaten at Randwick resuming but invariably improves second-up and is a winner this track and distance. The improver here. SEBRINA resumes and runner-up in a recent Rosehill trial. Placed two from five first-up previously and a place hope here fresh.
HAWKESBURY Race 3: BLAME IT ON PARIS
HAWKESBURY Race 6: PURSUIT OF HONOUR
HAWKESBURY Race 7: CHARLIE BOY
IPSWICH Race 2: MR MALU
IPSWICH Race 5: THOMAS THE TANK
IPSWICH Race 6: OCEANTES
PAKENHAM Race 2: HAPPY HALLOWEEN
PAKENHAM Race 6: ELLA VIOLET
PAKENHAM Race 7: ANTRIM BELLE
WARRNAMBOOL Race 2: STELLA EFFORT
WARRNAMBOOL Race 5: POWEROSSA
WARRNAMBOOL Race 7: OUR HENRIETTA