The following are betting comments for Round 11 of the 2016-17 English Premier League season. These have been sourced and published with permission from Valuesportsbetting’s weekly form guide.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.
Match Comments
 |
Bournemouth vs Sunderland |
 |
Similar to the Watford game last week, we don’t see any value in average home teams paying below 2.00 against any opposition. In both sets of data the home team has won less than 50% of the time meaning Bournemouth should be paying at least 2.00. Sunderland, despite their dismal start to the season are the value play here.
 |
Burnley vs Crystal Palace |
 |
Burnley start as underdogs at home here, slightly surprising given their decent start to the season at home. The stats also suggest siding with Burnley. In similar games the home team have won 40% which is 2.50 in odds (compared to Burnley’s 3.37). The Asian Handicap market also looks good with Burnley given a 0.25 goal lead and winning 75% of similar games (should be 50%)
 |
Man City vs Middlesbrough |
 |
There’s not much to suggest Man City won’t win this game, but in football you never know and there is simply no reward for backing them at 1.26. Probably a game best left alone, especially as there is limited information on Middlesbrough’s away form.
 |
West Ham vs Stoke |
 |
This game is showing mixed signals and both teams have had relatively disappointing starts to the season, given their well established EPL records. There is a good sample size in the similar games and Stoke show some slender value.
 |
Chelsea vs Everton |
 |
When we first looked at this game we thought Chelsea were good value but the stats reminded us that on a rolling season Chelsea are still a fairly average team. The value appears to be on the draw here given both teams have 42% draws in their overall records. This equates to 2.4 in odds, the betting markets are offering 4.50
 |
Arsenal vs Tottenham |
 |
This is the big game of the weekend and the draw looks to be the best bet here, and at generous odds of 3.80. Looking at similar games, the draw appeared in 37% of games (2.70 odds). Derby matches also contain their fair share of draws.
 |
Hull vs Southampton |
 |
We think any team priced below 2.00, away from home needs to be looked at with a degree of suspicion and this game is no different. In the 32 similar games the away team have won exactly half, and on a rolling basis less than half, suggesting the odds for Southampton should be above 2.00. Backing Hull is some way is the value bet based on these stats.
 |
Liverpool vs Watford |
 |
Similar to the Man City game but to a lesser degree, Liverpool look likely winners on this seasons form. The stats suggest there is no reward backing them though having won only 54% of similar games and less than half of their games on a rolling basis. The value therefore lies with Watford.
 |
Swansea vs Man United |
 |
Similar to the Hull v Southampton game, its hard to get excited about Man United at these odds, especially given their inconsistent start to the season. Giving Swansea a goal headstart looks like the value bet here given they have won 70% of available points and the value indicators point strongly in their favour.
 |
Leicester vs West Brom |
 |
On a rolling season basis, Leicester are undefeated at home and against similar opposition, have won all 7 games. We know West Brom keep things tight away from home, just look at their recent form. Despite the odds on price for Leicester there is still some value for them here.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.