The following are betting comments for Round 12 of the 2016-17 English Premier League season. These have been sourced and published with permission from Valuesportsbetting’s weekly form guide.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.
Match Comments
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Man United vs Arsenal |
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The fixture list starts with the biggest game of the weekend. A wobbly Man United take on an in form Arsenal. There’s no value backing Arsenal here with the overall record pointing to the draw and the similar games record showing Arsenal lose 60% of games in this kind of lineup. Opposing Arsenal on the Asian Handicaps looks like a fair way to play this.
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Sunderland vs Hull |
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Why would you back Sunderland at 2.21, they are clearly the worst team in the league and cannot be trusted to get a win when you are only receiving $1.21 for every $1 spent. Although Hull are not much better, backing Hull in some way would be the value bet here, given their price.
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Crystal Palace vs Man City |
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In similar games the home team have won 24% (4.16) of games, the odds for Palace are 14% (7.00) so there is some value on the Palace here. Man City will probably win this but there is no compensation for the risk at 1.58. Probably best left alone.
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Stoke vs Bournemouth |
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The betting markets look to have this game about right, as they have on many of Stokes games this season. There is not much value from either set of data and the over unders is giving mixed signals. Even the Asian Handicap stats are equal.
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Watford vs Leicester |
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Leicester’s record from last season is still shining through for the stats here and they are the value pick. In similar games the away team have won 55% of the time (vs odds of 36%) and the away team have claimed 65% of points in the Asian Handicap market. Be warned, if you like the look of Leicester, bear in mind their away form this season.
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Southampton vs Liverpool |
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There are mixed signals in this game too. Looking at the overall record Southampton are the pick with the home team winning 47% of the time (odds 27%, 3.70). Looking at the Asian Handicap however, (which uses the similar games stats), Liverpool are slightly ahead. Overall we still think Liverpool are generally pricing too short in most games, as they are here.
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Everton vs Swansea |
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Swansea are a standout here looking at the odds. Everton have been priced too short here, look at their rolling season record, only 8 wins from a possible 19 (42% vs odds of 61%). The AH market is the way to go with a goal headstart, you would need Everton to win by 2 to lose your bet. This has only happened in 7 games out of a possible 26.
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Tottenham vs West Ham |
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West Ham were one of the best away teams on a rolling basis, but this has tapered off given this seasons form. However, there is still some value in backing them in some way given their starting odds (7.80). The derby factor also helps the higher priced team. To give you an idea of volatility in recent results look at the head to head record.
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Middlesbrough vs Chelsea |
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Lack of games in the stats makes this one hard to assess. Having said that teams paying above 5 are almost always value and Middlesbrough would be no exception here. They have had a reasonable start to the season with narrow defeats against the big guns at home and that might be the bet way to play this, with a goal head-start on the Asian Handicaps.
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West Brom vs Burnley |
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Burnley’s best games have been at home this season but they look to be value here, given the home team has only won 26% of the time in similar games. Taking the away win and the draw would be a good option given these stats (AH +0.5 Burnley), winning 74% of the time, previously.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.