The following are betting comments for Round 15 of the 2016-17 English Premier League season. These have been sourced and published with permission from Valuesportsbetting’s weekly form guide.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.
Match Comments
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Watford vs Everton |
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A difficult match to kickoff the weekend’s fixtures in terms of value prediction. Mixed signals and a limited data set make this hard. Watford slightly edge this in terms of value for us. The similar games stats give them a 41% chance compared to the odds of 31%. This is backed up by Everton’s poor form away from home.
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Arsenal vs Stoke |
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You’d be brave to back against Arsenal at the moment. Their home form is decent, undefeated in their last 6. In addition the H2H record shows only Arsenal victories in the last 5 seasons. With this in mind we need to work out whether it is worth risking money backing Arsenal. Unfortunately the stats here say no, with this game probably best left alone.
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Swansea vs Sunderland |
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Two of the worst teams in the league play it out at the Liberty Stadium. One could argue that Sunderland have turned a corner of late in terms of form but there is not much in the stats here to back their cause. Swansea show small value on the Asian Handicap (-0.25 goals) and against similar teams the stats rate the home team just over 50% chance. This looks reasonable given the betting markets have them as a 45% shot.
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Hull vs Crystal Palace |
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Another game featuring teams at the bottom of the table. There is no value backing Palace on any metric, and the standout selection here is the draw. In similar games the draw has come in 12 times from a possible 29, which is a 41% chance. The odds for the draw are priced at 29
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Burnley vs Bournemouth |
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There isn’t much to go on here given the lack of history for both teams in the top flight. What can be said however is that Burnley have an excellent home record and the stats suggest backing them in some format along with the draw. There is no value in Bournemouth here who look short. Ths Asian Handicap (Burnley +0.25) looks the way to go.
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Leicester vs Man City |
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Everyone will be looking for Man City to win this comfortably. There is no value backing them and this looks like a classic opportunity for a contrian bet. Leicester have a decent record at home this season and against similar opposition have faired well too. The away team rate a 30% chance on our stats so odds on is too short. Backing Leicester anywhere along the handicap spectrum looks like a good value bet.
Two
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Chelsea vs West Brom |
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15.50 in a two horse race seems excessive to us. Chelsea are in great form and it is hard to look past them. So whats the case for West Brom ? They keep it tight against decent opposition, Chelsea have only won 8 of their last 19 home games and West Brom have only lost 7/19. In similar games the home team have only won 46%. West Brom have also drawn two of the last 5 H2Hs. West Brom and the draw in some form is the value play here.
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Southampton vs Middlesbrough |
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Mixed signals for this game doesn’t give us any confidence in a value selection. One thing to note is that Middlesbrough have drawn 5 of their last 6 away games
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Man United vs Tottenham |
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Probably the biggest game of the weekend sees. There is no value backing United who are clear favourites to win this game and we rate the teams much more evenly. You can take advantage of this by backing Spurs and the draw in some format for a value selection.
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Liverpool vs West Ham |
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Similar to the Chelsea game, the home team is a heavy favourite but we don’t have the confidence to back them given the low reward for doing so. West Ham could pull off some sort of surprise here. When playing top teams they have avoided defeat 7 times from a possible 19.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.