The following are betting comments for Round 16 of the 2016-17 English Premier League season. These have been sourced and published with permission from Valuesportsbetting’s weekly form guide.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.
Match Comments
 |
Everton vs Arsenal |
 |
Neither team have lost in their last 6 games. The value here looks to be on the draw with 2 of the last 5 H2Hs resulting in a stalemate and a massive 16 from 38 in the combined record of both teams. That’s 42% of games compared with the betting market chances of 26% (odds of 3.90)
 |
Bournemouth vs Leicester |
 |
A great win for Leicester which we picked up on last week in terms of a great pricing. Leicester are away in this game and that brings a whole different set of stats, their away record, quite frankly, is abysmal. Looking at the stats only Leicester still show value, however a lot of this is still taking into account last seasons performance, which is really long gone now. This makes us hesitant to back them on the road here.
 |
Middlesbrough vs Liverpool |
 |
As has been said on many occasions so far this season, Liverpool are not trustworthy to deliver the goods away from home at odds of less than 2. Despite there being a minimal record for Middlesbrough the value clearly lies with opposing Liverpool in some format at odds of 1.65 !!
 |
Sunderland vs Chelsea |
 |
10.60 for any team at home is value given the unpredictable nature of the Premier League. Even a team of Chelsea’s calibre are short at 1.38 away from home. Chelsea have failed to win in 8 of their last 19 away and 8 from 22 against similar opposition, so the away team should be much higher here, we reckon around 1.70
 |
West Ham vs Burnley |
 |
There are mixed signals here. Burnley’s away from is terrible and West Ham look like potential winners here. However, there is no value at 1.71 for the hammers so this game is probably best left alone.
 |
Crystal Palace vs Man United |
 |
Man Utd’s away form is worse than you might think. They have only won 6 of their last 19 away games. Against similar opposition, they have won half their games. So to see them at heavy odds on leads us to conclude there is no value here. Palace are extremely inconsistent but the price is with them.
 |
Tottenham vs Hull |
 |
Two teams that are at opposite ends of the spectrum. Spurs, despite the low odds are reasonably priced, especially when looking at the similar opposition stats. We simply can’t back teams at such low prices, so again this is a no bet for us, based on the stats and value available.
 |
Stoke vs Southampton |
 |
A mixed form card for both teams and an even record on the H2H’s makes this game a good matchup. In terms of value there is nothing for us on the similar opposition stats. On the overall record however, Stoke look good value based on their rolling season home record which sits at 8 wins (42%). The betting markets have them down as a 31% chance.
 |
Man City vs Watford |
 |
Man City’s erratic displays of late make this another hard game to evaluate. You could look for them to destroy Watford and beat the -1.50 handicap but looking at the similar records of these two, that result could go either way. This looks too hard to call.
 |
West Brom vs Swansea |
 |
Not sure Swansea can be trusted to get anything here, especially when looking at their away form. They are a hefty price however and they have won this fixture twice in the last 5 H2H’s. They have the half goal lead on the ASian Handicap market and this looks the way to go given you keep the draw on your side. This bet has come in 15/23 times when looking at similar games.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.