The following are betting comments for Round 17 of the 2016-17 English Premier League season. These have been sourced and published with permission from Valuesportsbetting’s weekly form guide.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.
Match Comments
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Crystal Palace vs Chelsea |
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There is value for Palace here, although I’m not sure you can trust them to get any kind of result here. They are the worst team at home and overall on a rolling season basis and despite the stats there are better value plays this week.
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Sunderland vs Watford |
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Mixed signals here with Sunderland the value team on the overall record stats and Watford the value when looking at similar games. We tend to favour the similar games record and Watford look value on the Asian Handicap with a 0.25 goal head-start.
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West Ham vs Hull |
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The H2H record and recent form favour West Ham, as does the similar games record. But the margins are slim and West Ham just aren’t that good to warrant a heavy discount to evens at home. Probably best left alone.
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Middlesbrough vs Swansea |
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Similar to last week Swansea represent value here given their price. Not sure if Middlesbrough have the pedigree or record to justify evens here, so backing Swansea in some way is the value bet according to these stats.
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Stoke vs Leicester |
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Leicester are a completely different team away from home and many had thought they had turned a corner with the excellent win against Man City. It wasn’t to be and their away form continues to go downhill. They are now unbackable at these prices and Stoke show small value in the overall stats.
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West Brom vs Man United |
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This is the value bet of the week. Man United at 1.76 are way to short here and betting against them in some way looks excellent value. The standout stat here is Man Uniteds inability to win on the road with a poor overall record 7 from 19 (37%) and 7 from 13 (54%) vs similar opposition, yet they are priced at well below evens. The Asain Handicap with West Brom with a goal start is a no brainer from a value perspective.
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Bournemouth vs Southampton |
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The South Coast Derby sees Southampton as marginal favourites. No doubt they would be much shorter had it not been for their poor away form this season. Generally the value is with Bournemouth but the stats aren’t convincing enough to warrant a wager.
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Man City vs Arsenal |
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The big game of the weekend sees the stats favour Arsenal in terms of value. They are the underdogs here and the pricing gap between these two looks too large given the mixed H2H stats and Arsenals recent form. One way to play this would be the Asian Handicap with Arsenal given a 0.25 goal start. You could also back Arsenal with a 0.5 goal head start and keep the draw on your side, sacrificing the price slightly to just under evens.
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Tottenham vs Burnley |
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Spurs are hot favourites here and this could be justified given Burnley’s away performances. The value is clearly with Burnley at a massive 18.5 but it’s a tall order to see them win this. The +2 goal handicap line is more promising for Burnley and this looks like the best way to play this
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Everton vs Liverpool |
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Another derby game, this time up north. Everton are clearly the value selection and with a 0.75 goal headstart they have one of the strongest Asian Handicap value indicators we have seen this season. Everton would have cleared this handicap in 24 from 39 similar games, they are undefeated in their last 6 and they did it against similar opposition in Arsenal during the week. To boot, 4 of the last 5 H2H have ended in a draw.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.