The following are betting comments for Round 19 of the 2016-17 English Premier League season. These have been sourced and published with permission from Valuesportsbetting’s weekly form guide.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.
Match Comments
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Hull vs Everton |
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On the overall record Hull look value here. Everton are evens, despite losing 4 of their last 6 away, indeed they have only won 5 of their last 19 away games.
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Burnley vs Sunderland |
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There is some value in the home team here given they have won 4 from their last 6 games. In addition Burnley like this sort of opposition (Sunderland are a 3rd grade away side). In the 21 similar games, the home team has won 10, giving them a 48% chance of winning, the betting markets have them as a 40% chance.
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Southampton vs West Brom |
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The bet here has to be West Brom on the Asian Handicap. They rarely win away but they don’t get thrashed either. Testament to this would be their recent form, none of these games resulted in a loss by more than 1, including tough away games to Arsenal and Chelsea. West Brom with a goal head-start gives you the away win, draw and money back on a defeat by 1 goal.
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Chelsea vs Stoke |
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Chelsea have to slip up some time don’t they ? The odds suggest another straightforward home win but there is no value backing Chelsea here. The value must therefore be on Stoke and a 1.5 goal head-start looks reasonable with a 59% win rate.
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Swansea vs Bournemouth |
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Not sure that Swansea are as bad as the betting markets make out. They have won 2 from their last 6 games and have a better home record than Bournemouth’s away record (on a rolling season basis), so to make them underdogs at home and with no manager makes them very backable.
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Leicester vs West Ham |
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This game looks difficult to assess. There are no real value indicators here (a slight bias towards Leicester). Given the unpredictable nature of both teams this is probably best left alone.
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Man United vs Middlesbrough |
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At 6.50 (15% chance) the draw has massive appeal here. Both Man Utd and Middlesbrough have drawn 4 of their last 6. Against similar opposition the draw has come in 24% of the time and 10 out of 38 games in the overall record.
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Liverpool vs Man City |
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From a value perspective, Liverpool amazingly appeal in this game. The similar opposition record probably sums it up best with the home team winning 17 from 32 games, 53% of the time. This compares to Liverpool’s price of 2.44 which gives them a 41% chance.
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Watford vs Tottenham |
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Watford are paying 6 at home and this is value, even against a decent team such as Spurs. The 1 goal headstart for Watford probably appeals the most given it has claimed 71% of points, with 15 wins from 22 games.
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Arsenal vs Crystal Palace |
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We can’t see Arsenal losing this but there is no value backing them. One standout feature of similar games is the lack of draws. Palace are value based on the stats and there is always a danger of a resurgence given the new manager effect. Not sure it will happen at the Emirates though.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.