The following are betting comments for Round 21 of the 2016-17 English Premier League season. These have been sourced and published with permission from Valuesportsbetting’s weekly form guide.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.
Match Comments
 |
Tottenham vs West Brom |
 |
Nice win for Spurs last time out against Chelsea. This weeks game against West Brom is the type of game that also need to be put to bed in order to win the EPL. West Brom are notoriously hard to breakdown away from home as can be seen by the H2H record. They are the value team with a 1.5 goal headstart for this game.
 |
Sunderland vs Stoke |
 |
Sunderland have racked up 3 wins from their last 6 home games and Stoke have lost their last 3 (albeit at decent opposition). We like the look of the draw here given 43% of similar games have ended in a stalemate. The betting markets are offering 3.5 which is a 29% chance.
 |
Swansea vs Arsenal |
 |
Last rounds game against Bournemouth saw Arsenal claw back 3 goals to salvage a draw. Not sure you would have seen such spirit in Arsenal in recent seasons so this is a good sign for the Gunners. In terms of value we couldn’t possibly back a team at 1.51 and expect to get any kind of value.
 |
Burnley vs Southampton |
 |
Burnley are good value here based on the stats. There is no way they should be underdogs to an average away team given their superb home record, just look at their form. Both overall and against similar opposition the home team have won 37% of the time which is 2.70. We think these two should be equally priced for this game.
 |
West Ham vs Crystal Palace |
 |
This is make or break time for Palace and they need something from their next few games. The stats suggest there is value for West Ham at 2.26 but we are not so sure. This is a London Derby and Sam Allardyce is returning to his old club, we would rather sit this one out.
 |
Watford vs Middlesbrough |
 |
There are no strong indicators here and the similar games stats are based off only 8 games.
 |
Hull vs Bournemouth |
 |
Again the betting markets look to have this about right with no value on any option and the Asian Handicap showing a 50/50 record.
 |
Leicester vs Chelsea |
 |
Leicester show good value here. Their home record is still very good and paying 6.20 seems high to us. Yes Chelsea are the best team currently but Ranieri may have learnt about how to beat them by watching the Spurs game. The Asian Handicap looks interesting with the home team claiming 78% of points in similar games.
 |
Everton vs Man City |
 |
Another game where the away team is odds on. Everton have performed well against grade 1 teams visiting Goodison Park this season and there is some value on them or the draw here. The Asian Handicap gives Everton a 0.75 lead and this looks good given the home team have won 66% of points in these situations.
 |
Man United vs Liverpool |
 |
The big match of the weekend and the stats are mixed with no real indications either way. Looking at the form and H2H in isolation, there is a small lean towards Man United with them winning 4 of the last 5 at Old Trafford and are undefeated in their last 6. However, these indications don’t take into consideration the odds and therefore we can’t conclude whether they are value at 2.26.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.