The following are betting comments for Round 30 of the 2016-17 English Premier League season. These have been sourced and published with permission from Valuesportsbetting’s weekly form guide.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.
Match Comments
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Liverpool vs Everton |
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Unfortunately there are mixed signals in terms of value here. Both teams have a reasonable form record. The draw looks a good prospect given it’s a derby game, 2 from 5 H2H’s ended in a draw and there is value showing in the overall record.
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Watford vs Sunderland |
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A tough game to analyse given no real indicators. Anything can happen here so the highest priced team looks to be in favour. This is not backed up by the stats however, so is probably best left alone.
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Hull vs West Ham |
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West Ham look reasonable value here on both indicators. Hulls recent home performances would be the spoiler to this but given the away team has won 42% of similar games and is priced as a 32% chance, this would appear to be the best option given the stats.
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Chelsea vs Crystal Palace |
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The stats suggest massive value for Palace to cause an upset but its so hard to back against a team that has such a good home record, just look at Chelsea’s form. Our analysis shows a typical heavy home favourite example where the chances of an away win are slim but you are rewarded more than you should be if it comes in.
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Leicester vs Stoke |
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A fairly boring game here in terms of value indicators. Leicester look good on the Asian handicaps when given a -0.25 goal lead. In similar games the home team has won 65% of possible points (should be 50%)
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Man United vs West Brom |
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Another heavy home favourite game. This time we have more faith in the away teams ability to cause some sort of upset. West Brom have won this fixture twice in the last 5 seasons. The most compelling stat however is in the overall record where the draw has featured in 42% of all games played. Its being priced at 5.55 which is an 18% chance
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Burnley vs Tottenham |
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In this game, Burnley are the definition of value from a stats perspective. Burnley have won their last 5 and drawn 1 (to Chelsea). Spurs now have a mixed bag record away from home yet they are still heavy odds on to win this game. This just doesn’t make sense, Burnley are clearly overpriced here.
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Southampton vs Bournemouth |
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The south coast Derby sees value for the away team. The betting markets have overpriced Bournemouth according to our analysis. Both teams come into this game in reasonably poor form but the disparity in ability is not as wide 1.69 vs 6.20. The stats suggest backing Bournemouth in some way.
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Swansea vs Middlesbrough |
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There is not much to go on here given the lack of similar games for Middlesbrough. Swansea look to edge it and they are coming into this with good form, however there doesn’t seem to be too much generosity in the price.
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Arsenal vs Man City |
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Not sure why Man City are favourites here. The value appears to be on Arsenal or the draw, especially when looking at the similar opposition record where the home draw combination has come in 86% of the time. The way to play this would be the Asian Handicaps where you get a lead of 0.25 for Arsenal
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.