The following are previews with betting tips for Round 7 of the 2017 AFL season.
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Friday, May 5
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St Kilda v GWS7:50PM AEST, Etihad Stadium |
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In what was surely a confidence boosting win, the Saints demolished the once-mighty Hawks in Tasmania, squaring their ledger to 3-3 and enjoying a nice percentage booster as well. They’ll need that extra confidence heading into this Friday night as their opponents have won five on the trot and will be very difficult to beat. The Giants were a touch fortunate to get away with the four points against the Dogs, who continually squandered opportunities due to poor goal kicking, but the Giants were better in the dying stages and did enough to hold on for a 2-point victory. There will be repercussions however, with star forward Toby Greene set to miss the next two weeks through suspension.
The Saints will fancy themselves playing GWS at Etihad, especially without Greene and possibly Phil Davis as well. If Davis doesn’t play, they may look to bring Paddy McCartin back into the side to stretch the GWS defence following his impressive haul of seven goals in the VFL. The other thing to be wary of is the Giants were involved in a taxing game against the Dogs on Friday night, but you’d think after a seven day break they should be fully recovered in time to take on the Saints.
I’ve talked up some areas where the Saints may have a slight advantage, but any way you look at it the Giants should be too strong. GWS play consistently good, strong footy and I don’t think the Saints are capable of knocking them off, regardless of how well they may play.
Betting tip: GWS (-14.5) @ $1.93 (Marathon Bet)
Saturday, May 6
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North Melbourne v Adelaide1:45PM AEST, Blundstone Arena |
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It’s a good thing the Kangaroos managed their first win of the season last weekend, because they definitely aren’t getting the chocolates against the Crows. They were very good against the Suns and thoroughly deserved a win, but they’ll want to ensure they don’t let Rory Sloane run around and pick up possessions at will like they allowed Gary Ablett to do against them.
The Crows seem to be just about unstoppable. They are playing with such confidence and dare, and everything they attempt is coming off. They’re in a good place at the moment but it’s very early on in the season and it will be incredibly hard to keep this form up all year.
As brave as the Kangaroos have been, they are going to cop a hiding from the Crows. At the very least, they can be thankful it’s not being played at the Adelaide Oval.
Betting tip: Adelaide By 40+ @ $2.08 (TopSport)
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Collingwood v Carlton2:10PM AEST, MCG |
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Last Saturday morning before the first bounce at the MCG, there wouldn’t have been too many folk predicting that both the Blues and the Pies would be coming into this contest on the back of a win, yet the Blues made light work of the desperate Swans on Saturday, and the next day the Pies dismantled the then-undefeated Cats. It adds an extra level of excitement to this clash between two of the biggest clubs in the land, with both clubs able to play relatively pressure free, for this week at least. Watching Collingwood play on the weekend made you wonder how they’ve been so poor so far this season. They looked like the undefeated side, beating the Cats in almost every aspect of the game. Things might be falling into place for the Pies now that they’ve got a few games into Daniel Wells and Jamie Elliott, as those guys are two of their most important players. They provide the class that few others can and make the Magpies much more dangerous in attack.
In another similarity between the clubs, they were both pleasantly surprised by outstanding performances from recycled full backs on the weekend. For the Blues, Alex Silvagni played an exceptional game on Lance Franklin, while Lynden Dunn was just as good for the Pies against the hulking Tom Hawkins. It gives Collingwood the opportunity to bring Ben Reid back into the team as a forward, which I think would be a really good move for them.
The Blues will be ready for the challenge, but after the way the Pies played last week I can’t go past them here. They are a better side than Carlton, and if they play close to their potential, as they did against Geelong, they should win comfortably.
Betting tip: Collingwood (-17.5) @ $1.78 (UniBet)
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Port Adelaide v West Coast4:35PM AEST, Adelaide Oval |
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After an extremely disappointing loss, the Eagles did what they always do and bounced back with a resounding hometown victory. The home advantage wasn’t as strong as usual considering they were playing the Dockers, but we know the Eagles are actually capable of playing good football at Domain Stadium, and they did just that to notch up a seven goal win.
Port Adelaide will be looking forward to more of a challenge this week after winning their last two games by a combined total of 173 points. The Eagles should provide that so long as they can cope with playing away from home. They haven’t been good outside of Perth but they seem to be at their worst at the MCG; perhaps playing at the Adelaide Oval will prove a good opportunity for them to work through their issues. Ah, who am I kidding, the Eagles are going to get belted by Port on Saturday. The Power are flying and the Eagles have lost more of their ruck depth with Nathan Vardy set to miss a few weeks. Expect West Coast to come out firing in an attempt to prove they can play away from home, and then watch as Port run all over them in the second half.
Betting tip: Port Adelaide (-24.5) @ $2.05 (bet365)
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Gold Coast v Geelong7:25PM AEST, Metricon Stadium |
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Geelong’s perfect start to the season came to a sudden halt at the MCG on Sunday, with the Magpies giving them a bath all over the ground. It’s been said many times already and it will continue to be talked about until proven otherwise: the Cats are still a two man show; if Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood are both quiet, the Cats aren’t going to win. Selwood was kept to a two-year low of 17 possessions by Levi Greenwood, which will surely give opposition coaches something to think about when brainstorming their approach to playing the Cats.
I’m not sure the Suns will take that approach however; I think they are more likely to let their midfield go head to head with the Cats. Gary Ablett turned back the clock against the Kangaroos – picking up a lazy 45 touches – so the Cats will definitely be wary of him. The Suns will be boosted by the return of David Swallow and Kade Kolodjashnij, while co-captain Steven May returns to strengthen the backline.
After a really disappointing week for the club, look for the Cats to bounce back here. The Suns are a decent side, but the Cats should be able to get the job done by five or six goals at the least.
Betting tip: Geelong (-26.5) @ $2.20 (bet365)
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Western Bulldogs v Richmond7:25PM AEST, Etihad Stadium |
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The Tigers were brought back down to Earth in the last game of round 6 at the hands of the rampaging Adelaide Crows. It was a rude awakening for the Tigers; it’s hard to imagine being dealt a 76-point loss when you were previously undefeated. Nevertheless, they can’t dwell on it for too long because they’ve got to deal with another very good side this weekend. The Dogs started the season off slowly but kicked into gear against the Giants on Friday night. Despite the fact they lost, it was their best performance of the year and the first time they have looked like the team that dominated last year’s finals series.
The loss to the Crows not only dented Richmond’s confidence, it’s also affected their chances this week. Reece Conca will miss multiple weeks due to a foot injury, while ruckman Tony Nankervis is out due to a one-week suspension. And now it appears that star recruit Dion Prestia is out with a hamstring. That’s going to make it really hard for the Tigers this week. If the Dogs bring their form from last week into Saturday night, considering the outs the Tigers have, I’d expect the Dogs to get home by at least a few goals.
Betting tip: Western Bulldogs By 1-39 @ $2.17 (UniBet)
Sunday, May 7
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Sydney v Brisbane1:10PM AEST, SCG |
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It has to be this week doesn’t it? Surely the Swans can’t lose this one. Yes, that may be exactly what was said last week when they were up against the Blues, but that was an extremely poor effort by the Swans – their worst performance of the year, which is saying something – and it was away from home. This week they take on an equally poor opponent but this time at the SCG. It’s a game they just cannot afford to lose, and I don’t think they will. The Lions have played patches of good footy, but weren’t great at all against Port. They’ve also lost skipper Dayne Beams for a few weeks with a quad injury. They may have been a chance with him out there, but you can’t take a player of his quality out of a bottom team like the Lions and expect them to be able to win games of footy.
So I think this is the week the Swans will finally be able to celebrate a win for the first time since the 2016 preliminary final. It’s been a long time coming.
Betting tip: Leave this alone and find better value elsewhere.
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Melbourne v Hawthorn3:20PM AEST, MCG |
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After a big win over the Eagles in round 5, the Hawks reverted back to their ugly early season form to cop a 75-point belting at the hands of the Saints. What a way to end a 19-game winning streak in Tasmania. On the other side of the equation, the Demons were super impressive last week, taking care of the Bombers by more than six goals. It was a huge performance when you consider they were missing a few out-and-out stars, and one that could really set up the rest of their season.
I’m still worried about Hawthorn’s potential to turn it on on their day, but the evidence they have given us so far points to that being an exception to the rule. After years of inconsistency and poor performances, the Demons are now a fairly reliable team. They still fluctuate of course, but nowhere near as much as they used to. As long as they turn up ready to play, they’ll beat the Hawks with ease on Sunday afternoon.
Betting tip: Melbourne (-14.5) @ $1.95 (Marathon Bet)
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Fremantle v Essendon4:40PM AEST, Domain Stadium |
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The round closes with two clubs looking for redemption after last weekend. The Dockers were meek in the Derby, losing to the Eagles by 41-points, while the Bombers played scrappy, lacklustre footy in their 38-point loss to the Demons. Nat Fyfe has been in the media this week due to having apparently ‘verbally signed’ with the Saints for next season, but you wouldn’t think that would affect his performance.
Joe Daniher has also been heavily discussed this week due to his poor goal kicking, which is fair enough when you kick 1.6. The media pressure is likely to only make things worse as goal kicking is part technique, part mental strength. It will be interesting to see how he handles it.
This should be a fairly even game of footy, both teams are in similar positions at present. They have been up and down at different stages of the year so far, but you’ve got to favour the Dockers over in Perth. It’s more than likely to be a scrappy affair that’s not really worth watching unless you’re a fan of either side, but I expect the Dockers to get the job done.
Betting tip: Fremantle to win @ $1.55 (Marathon Bet)
Best Bets of the Round
Geelong (-26.5) @ $2.20 (bet365)
Western Bulldogs By 1-39 @ $2.17 (UniBet)
Season Tally
All Bets: -7.07 units
Best Bets: +1.47 units
You got everyone of them wrong expect 1. Need to be better than that, I’m counting on you.