The following are previews with betting tips for Round 10 of the 2017 AFL season.
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Thursday, May 25
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Geelong v Port Adelaide7:20PM AEST, Simonds Stadium |
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On the back of some serious tackling pressure, the Cats managed to turn around a serious form slump against the Dogs on Friday night. Funny that, how Geelong’s return to their best form coincided with their return to Simonds Stadium. If they play like that all year they will be seriously hard to beat. They gave the Dogs no time and space at all, and apart from a lapse in the third quarter, they looked the much better side all night. Paddy Dangerfield was unstoppable, and Harry Taylor had his best game as a forward for the year. They now have a massive chance to consolidate their position before the bye, with their next two games also at Simonds Stadium.
This week they host the Power, who should be fresh from a week off despite playing in Shanghai the week prior. They’ll have to make do without injured star Chad Wingard, having been ruled out with a calf strain. The Power haven’t beaten the Cats in Geelong for a decade, and while the Cats deserve to be favourites after last week, it’d be hard to completely rule Port out considering their current form.
I’m looking forward to sitting down and watching this one; I expect it’ll be a free flowing and fast paced contest. If the Cats show up to play like last week, they’ll edge the Power out just as they did to the Dogs. You can’t expect them to tackle like that every week, but after seeing the result of what can happen when they do, I think they’ll repeat the effort again on Friday. I’m going with Geelong by four goals.
Betting tip: Geelong (-12.5) @ $2.12 (Ladbrokes)
Friday, May 26
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Sydney v Hawthorn7:50PM AEST, SCG |
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The second game of the 2017 Indigenous round sees Hawthorn travelling up to Sydney to take on a Swans outfit that has now won three games in a row. Another win here and the Swans would not be out of finals contention, which is stunning considering they started the season with six consecutive losses. They are starting to look like the team that played in last year’s grand final, which is not all that surprising; the players who actually got them there are starting to return.
The Hawks got off to a fantastic start against the Magpies but forgot to turn up for the second half; it was like watching two totally different teams. They’ll need to pull themselves together quickly for Friday night, as the Swans are back to something resembling their best and will be very difficult to beat at the SCG. Buddy Franklin will be setting himself for a massive game and I reckon he might just kick a bagful. If he does, the Swans will romp it in.
Betting tip: Sydney (-35.5) @ $1.99 (Pinnacle)
Saturday, May 27
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Western Bulldogs v St Kilda1:45PM AEST, Etihad Stadium |
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This should be a ripping game of footy. Both clubs are coming off a disappointing loss and are sitting at the precarious position of 5-4. The winner heads into the bye week in a great position to launch into the rest of the season, but the loser is stuck in the middle of the ladder and will have some ground to make up in their attempt to secure a finals berth. These two clubs have had some exciting battles over the previous few years and I expect this to follow a similar path. The Saints match up well against the Dogs, and while Nick Riewoldt is a big out, St Kilda still have plenty of forward options to trouble the Dogs’ defence.
Apart from the third quarter, it was a disappointing effort from the Dogs on Friday night. They had a very good team on the park but weren’t able to produce good footy consistently over the four quarters. This week they have as close to a full strength list to choose from they’ve had since last year’s finals run. They absolutely must win this contest if they are to be any chance of making the top four. The Saints will relish the opportunity to test themselves against the Dogs and should bounce back strongly from last week’s disappointing loss, but I’m not sure I see them getting the win. The Dogs should get home in a close battle.
Betting tip: Western Bulldogs By 1-39 @ $2.20 (Sportsbet)
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Melbourne v Gold Coast4:35PM AEST, Traeger Park |
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In a performance typical of Melbourne after a huge win, the Demons struggled to a 14-point loss against the Kangaroos on Sunday afternoon. They had a huge opportunity to win a couple in a row and set themselves up for an assault on the top eight but they let themselves down again. They weren’t horrible, but they should have beaten the Kangaroos. This is another game they should win, but it’s definitely no certainty.
It’s a bit of a mixed bag at the selection table for the Suns this week. On the one hand, they lose superstar Gary Ablett to a shoulder issue, but they also gain two very important midfielders in Pearce Hanley and David Swallow. They are a better side than their last performance portrayed, and will much prefer playing the Demons in Alice Springs rather than the MCG. Melbourne themselves struggle at TIO Park and I have a feeling this game will be very close. The Demons desperately need to win, and they should, but I fully expect the Suns to make them earn it.
Betting tip: Gold Coast (+20.5) @ $1.93 (Bet365)
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Richmond v Essendon7:25PM AEST, MCG |
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The annual Dreamtime at the ‘G clash is all set up to be a huge game, one of the biggest in years I’d say. The Bombers are up and about after a few impressive wins, while the Tigers are absolutely desperate for a win to arrest their losing streak. How they managed to lose another game they had locked away is almost unfathomable, but Richmond always find a way. One day they will learn how to ice a close game, but at the moment they have no composure at all.
The Bombers were terrific in their demolition job of the Eagles, even better than the week before against Geelong. It was the usual suspects for the Bombers; Merrett, Watson and Zaharakis in the midfield, Daniher, Fantasia and McDonald-Tipungwuti up forward. Michael Hurley led the defence, which was also superb, holding the Eagles to a paltry 64-points. It should be a great game and could go either way, but I’m backing the Tigers to snap their losing streak. They are a pretty good side this year and I can’t see them losing a fourth game in a row.
Betting tip: Richmond to win @ $1.84 (Marathon Bet)
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Adelaide v Fremantle7:40PM AEST, Adelaide Oval |
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A big win over the Lions kept the Crows sitting pretty on top of the ladder and also put them back on the winners list. Sitting just a game behind them is this week’s opponent, Fremantle, who got the job done against the Blues on Sunday in an unremarkable affair. It has come at a large cost however, with ruckman Aaron Sandilands injuring his hamstring. He won’t be available to take on the Crows this week, in a massive blow to Fremantle’s chances. They would need absolutely everything going for them if they are to topple the Crows, and having the big guy missing is one of the worst possible outcomes for them. Nevertheless, they’ve shown over the past six or seven weeks that they will have a crack against anyone, so expect the same from them this week. The Crows should be too good at home, but Freo won’t die wondering.
Betting tip: Adelaide (-35.5) @ $1.75 (BetFair)
Sunday, May 28
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Collingwood v Brisbane1:10PM AEST, MCG |
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The Magpies produced what was probably their best half of footy for the year to turn a 43-point deficit into an 18-point victory over the Hawks. The challenge for Nathan Buckley’s team is to now find some consistency week-to-week and quarter-to-quarter. They have a perfect opportunity to do that this week when they host the struggling Brisbane Lions at the MCG. After another poor showing, Chris Fagan has decided to swing the axe, confirming at least four changes to the team that was trounced by the Crows. A few Brisbane players aren’t playing with much intent at the moment so the coaching staff have shaken things up a bit in attempt to find a group of players that will.
It’s going to be difficult for the Lions to trouble the Pies you’d suspect, especially if Collingwood play like they did in the second half on Saturday night. A six goal win should be the bare minimum against the Lions at the moment.
Betting tip: Collingwood By 40+ @ $1.62 (BlueBet)
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Carlton v North Melbourne3:20PM AEST, Etihad Stadium |
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The Kangaroos were brilliant in their win over the Demons last week. Even though Jarrad Waite didn’t have a big game their key forwards again proved telling, with Ben Brown kicking five goals and Mason Wood chipping in with three. The Blues’ contest against Fremantle probably went according to script, with the better side coasting to a relatively comfortable win at home.
The Blues will fancy their chances this week against the Kangaroos though; the Roos having been solid but not standout performers over the course of the season. The one area the Blues may struggle is in trying to contain those big forwards the Kangaroos have, but if they can do that they are every chance of snatching a win. I think North will probably be too strong in the end but the Blues aren’t without a chance of an upset if they get on top in the middle.
Betting tip: Carlton (+21.5) @ $1.93 (Pinnacle)
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West Coast v GWS4:40PM AEST, Domain Stadium |
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After yet another horrid performance in Melbourne, I bet the Eagles are stoked they’re back in Perth this week. It was such a poor performance, but we’ve come to expect that sort of thing from the Eagles these days, and it doesn’t seem like changing anytime soon. The other thing that hasn’t change is their winning record at Domain Stadium, and considering the Giants barely have a team to pick from this week, you’ve got to think the Eagles win this. They just must.
Adam Simpson has also chosen to make four unforced changes to his side, but the more telling selection dilemma is with GWS, who are trying to scrounge together a fit 22 after ruling out Steve Johnson and Rory Lobb through injury. They’ve managed to win their lost couple despite being down and out, but surely this is too much for them. If the Eagles can’t get up they can kiss 2017, but I expect they’ll take care of the Giants fairly easily.
Betting tip: West Coast (-14.5) @ $1.93 (Pinnacle)
Best Bets of the Round
Sydney (-35.5) @ $1.99 (Pinnacle)
West Coast (-14.5) @ $1.93 (Pinnacle)
Season Tally
All Bets: -9.25 units
Best Bets: +1.98 units