2017 State of Origin Game 2 – NSW v QLD – Preview & Betting Tips

The following is a preview with betting tips for Game 2 of the 2017 State of Origin Series. Origin betting promotions are also listed for those who live outside NSW.

In 2016 Queensland won the series for the 10th time in 11 years. They also host two of the three games this year, but with NSW winning the first game emphatically in Brisbane, bookmakers have installed the Blues as 1.25-1.30 favourites to win this year’s series.

2017 State of Origin Schedule

Each game is televised on Channel Nine.

Game 1 – Brisbane – Suncorp Stadium
Wednesday, 31 May 2017, 8:15 PM AEST
Referees: Matt Cecchin, Gerard Sutton
Queensland 4 – 28 New South Wales
QLD tries: Corey Oates (35′)
QLD goals: Cameron Smith 0/1
NSW tries: (6′) James Maloney, (40′) Mitchell Pearce, (52′) James Tedesco, (55′) Andrew Fifita, (60′) Jarryd Hayne
NSW goals: 4/5 James Maloney
Man of the Match: Andrew Fifita (NSW)

Game 2 – Sydney – ANZ Stadium
Wednesday, 21 June 2017, 8:15 PM AEST

Game 3 – Brisbane – Suncorp Stadium
Wednesday, 12 July 2017, 8:15 PM AEST

Recent State of Origin History

Below are the State of Origin results since 2000. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.

Home advantage has been historically important, with New South Wales holding a 15-1-8 record in Sydney while Queensland are 17-7 in Brisbane since 2000. NSW have won five of their last eight at ANZ Stadium while Queensland have won seven of their last nine at Suncorp Stadium.

2017 State of Origin Game 2 Squads

(source: Wikipedia)

New South Wales

1. James Tedesco, 2. Brett Morris, 3. Josh Dugan, 4. Jarryd Hayne, 5. Blake Ferguson, 6. James Maloney, 7. Mitchell Pearce, 8. Aaron Woods, 9. Nathan Peats, 10. Andrew Fifita, 11. Josh Jackson, 12. Boyd Cordner (c), 13. Tyson Frizell

Interchange: 14. David Klemmer, 15. Wade Graham, 16. Jake Trbojevic, 17. Jack Bird
18th man: Matt Moylan
19th man: Jack De Belin
20th man: Tom Trbojevic

With no new injury concerns, the Blues have selected same squad that beat the Maroons in Game 1. For what feels like the first time in ages, the Blues have retained a settled squad from the previous fixture, while the Maroons have made numerous changes.

Queensland

1. Billy Slater, 2. Valentine Holmes, 3 Will Chambers, 4. Darius Boyd, 5. Dane Gagai, 6. Johnathan Thurston, 7. Cooper Cronk, 8. Dylan Napa, 9. Cameron Smith (c), 10. Jarrod Wallace, 11. Gavin Cooper, 12. Matt Gillett, 13. Josh McGuire

Interchange: 14. Michael Morgan, 15. Josh Papalii, 16. Coen Hess, 17. Tim Glasby
18th man: Cameron Munster

As expected, Queensland have made a raft of chances in response to their thrashing in Game 1. Veteran forwards Nate Myles, Sam Thaiday and Jacob Lillyman have been dropped along with backrower Aidan Guerra. Winger Corey Oates, injured five-eighth Anthony Milford and centre Justin O’Neill have also been left out of the side.

Gavin Cooper returns to the back row, prop Jarrod Wallace and winger Valentine Holmes will start with fellow debutants Coen Hess and Tim Glasby named on the bench. Billy Slater will make his much anticipated return to Origin football at fullback, with Darius Boyd shifting to left centre – a position he has not played in since 2009. Veteran five-eighth Johnathan Thurston returns having recovered from the shoulder injury that left him out of Game 1.

Josh Papalii has been demoted to the bench. He arrived in camp two days late to treat a knee injury and a concussion but is expected to play.

We’ve become used to Queensland naming highly experienced squads, but on Wednesday the squad will feature four props who have a total of just eight Origin caps between them. The squad will have the most inexperienced starting front row in 20 years.

Some notable absentees are Greg Inglis and Matt Scott, who have both picked up season-ending ACL injuries.

ANZ Stadium History

Fixtures at ANZ Stadium tend to have lower total scores and narrower winning margins than at Suncorp Stadium Stadium. Since 2000, the average total score is 39.9 in Brisbane compared to 31.6 in Sydney. During this time, 10 games were won by 1-12 points and 14 games were won by 13+ points in Brisbane. In contrast, 19 games were won by 1-12 points and just 5 games were won by 13+ points in Sydney.

Since 2005 the disparity has grown even larger, with all 16 games in Sydney won by 12 points or less, compared to eight 1-12 results and nine 13+ results in Brisbane.

Bookmaker Odds Comparison

You can compare up-to-date bookmaker odds across numerous State of Origin markets in the bookmaker odds section. Game 2 odds and markets can be viewed here.

Head-to-head Betting

At the time of writing the best odds for New South Wales were 1.6745 (1.71 before 5% commission) with Betfair while the best head-to-head odds for Queensland were 2.33 with Unibet.

To win Game 2 Queensland will have to improve upon a 24-point loss in Game 1. Since 2000, from Game 1 to Game 2 there have been five games with points swings (Game 2 winning margin minus Game 1 losing margin) above 24 points, however every single one involved a team losing heavily away from home and then winning heavily at home. During that time, every team that won Game 1 in opposition territory went on to win Game 2 at home. In 3 of those 4 instances, the team that won Game 1 in opposition territory went on to win by a bigger margin at home in Game 2.

Queensland should be stronger than they were in Game 1, but given they lost that game by 24 points at home, I don’t see the improvement being good enough to overturn such a large losing margin in Sydney. I would back the Blues in the head-to-head.

Line Betting

Most bookmakers have installed the Blues as 3.5 point favourites, while some have opted for 4.0 or 4.5 lines. Given 9 of the 10 last Blues wins over Queensland were by 4+ points, I would back the Blues -3.5 at 1.93 (bet365. Some bookmaker are offering -4.0 or -4.5 lines on the Blues, but I would stay clear of them and look for -3.5 because since 2007 a total of 6 games have been won by exactly 4 points.

Over/Under Betting

Most bookmakers have set an over/under mark of 32.5.

Origin fixtures at ANZ Stadium have averaged 26.4 total points since 2007. Since 2011 the average total has been just 21.1 and since 2013 the average total is 19.2.

In terms of Game 2 totals, since 2000 the average has been 32.2, with an average of 29.6 points for Game 2 fixtures at ANZ Stadium.

Based on this I recommend taking under 32.50 at 1.88 (Ladbrokes)

Winning Margin Betting

At the time of writing the best available margin odds were:
NSW by 1-12 – 2.70 (Unibet)
QLD by 1-12 – 3.50 (Unibet)
NSW by 13+ – 4.00 (Sportsbet)
QLD by 13+ – 9.00 (Unibet)
Draw – 17.0 (Unibet)

Game 2’s tend to have higher winning margins than Game 1’s. Since 2004 the Game 1 winning margins have been 4.8 points on average, compared to 12.6 points for Game 2. If you only look at Game 2 fixtures in Sydney, however, the average winning margin is just 6.9 points.

If you think the long-term trends will continue, I would recommend NSW 1-12, however if you feel the dominant NSW victory in Game 1 heralds the beginning of a new chapter, then NSW 13+ looks to be the better option.

Other Markets

You can use our odds comparison tool to compare odds for the following popular player markets:

• Man of the match – shortest is Mitchell Pearce at 7.00, followed by Johnathan Thurston.
• Anytime try scorer – shortest is Blake Ferguson at 2.50, followed by Brett Morris.
• First try scorer – shortest is Brett Morris at 11.00, followed by Blake Ferguson
• Last tryscorer – shortest is Brett Morris at 11.00, followed by Blake Ferguson

For those who like high odds wagering, Sportsbet, is again offering Exacta and Quinella markets for the 1st and 2nd try scorers. You can find them in the Player Markets tab. For an Exacta wager to win you have to pick the first and second try scorers in correct order, while the Quinella bet wins if you pick the first and second try scorers in either order. At the time of writing the shortest Exacta odds are 1st Morris / 2nd Ferguson at 81.00, while the shortest Quinella odds are Morris / Ferguson at 41.00. View the Sportsbet player markets

Best Bet

Given that, since 2000, every team that won Game 1 in opposition territory went on to win Game 2 at home (by a larger margin in 3 of those 4 instances), back the Blues in the head-to-head at 1.6745 (1.71 before 5% commission) with Betfair.

2017 State of Origin – Game 2 Bookmaker Promotions

Below is a selection of bookmaker promotions for 2017 State of Origin Game 2. You can view all active promotions in the Bookmaker Promotions section.

IMPORTANT NOTICE FOR NSW RESIDENTS: as of January, 2016, NSW Regulation prohibits the publishing of any betting promotions in New South Wales.