2017 State of Origin Game 3 – QLD v NSW – Preview & Betting Tips

The following is a preview with betting tips for Game 3 of the 2017 State of Origin Series. Origin betting promotions are also listed for those who live outside NSW.

Last year Queensland won the series for the 10th time in 11 years. New South Wales won Game 1 in Brisbane comfortably only to cough up a handy lead and lose Game 2 in Sydney, so the 2017 series is still on the line going into Game 3.

2017 State of Origin Schedule

Each game is televised on Channel Nine.

Game 1 – Brisbane – Suncorp Stadium
Wednesday, 31 May 2017, 8:15 PM AEST
Referees: Matt Cecchin, Gerard Sutton
Queensland 4 – 28 New South Wales
Halftime score: QLD 4 – 12 NSW
QLD tries: Corey Oates (35′)
QLD goals: Cameron Smith 0/1
NSW tries: (6′) James Maloney, (40′) Mitchell Pearce, (52′) James Tedesco, (55′) Andrew Fifita, (60′) Jarryd Hayne
NSW goals: 4/5 James Maloney
Man of the Match: Andrew Fifita (NSW)

Game 2 – Sydney – ANZ Stadium
Wednesday, 21 June 2017, 8:15 PM AEST
Matt Cecchin, Gerard Sutton
New South Wales 16-18 Queensland
Halftime score: NSW 16 – 6 QLD
NSW tries: Jarryd Hayne (14′), Brett Morris (24′), Mitchell Pearce (27′)
NSW goals: James Maloney 2/3
QLD tries: (9′) Valentine Holmes, Dane Gagai (53′, 77′)
QLD goals: 3/3 Johnathan Thurston

Game 3 – Brisbane – Suncorp Stadium
Wednesday, 12 July 2017, 8:15 PM AEST

Recent State of Origin History

Below are the State of Origin results since 2000. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.

While neither team has managed to win at home this series, home advantage has been historically important, with New South Wales holding a 15-1-9 record in Sydney while Queensland are 17-7 in Brisbane since 2000. Queensland have won eight of their last ten at Suncorp Stadium.

2017 State of Origin Game 3 Squads

(source: Wikipedia)

Queensland

1. Billy Slater, 2. Valentine Holmes, 3 Will Chambers, 4. Michael Morgan, 5. Dane Gagai, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Cooper Cronk, 8. Dylan Napa, 9. Cameron Smith (c), 10. Jarrod Wallace, 11. Gavin Cooper, 12. Matt Gillett, 13. Josh McGuire

Interchange: 14. Ben Hunt, 15. Coen Hess, 16. Josh Papalii, 17. Tim Glasby
18th man: Felise Kaufusi

Queensland have made two injury-enforced changes to the squad that won Game 2. Cameron Munster will make his State of Origin debut at five-eighth in place of the injured Johnathan Thurston and Anthony Milford. This gives the side a notable Melbourne Storm feel to it, with Melbourne teammates Billy Slater starting at fullback, Cooper Cronk starting at halfback and Cameron Smith starting hooker, plus Felise Kaufusi has been named as the 18th man. This will be the first time since 1996 that the Maroons have used three different five-eighths during a series and the first time Queensland have never handed an Origin debut to a half in the third game of a series since the series expanded to three games in 1982.

Darius Boyd is out with a broken thumb so Michael Morgan has been promoted from the bench to make his first Origin start at centre, while Ben Hunt is poised to make his debut from the bench.

The lingering question is who will actually play at 6, Munster or Morgan?

New South Wales

1. James Tedesco, 2. Brett Morris, 3. Josh Dugan, 4. Jarryd Hayne, 5. Blake Ferguson, 6. James Maloney, 7. Mitchell Pearce, 8. Aaron Woods, 9. Nathan Peats, 10. Andrew Fifita, 11. Boyd Cordner (c), 12. Josh Jackson, 13. Tyson Frizell

Interchange: 14. David Klemmer, 15. Wade Graham, 16. Jake Trbojevic, 17. Jack Bird
18th man: Matt Moylan
19th man: Jack De Belin
20th man: Tom Trbojevic

New South Wales have named the same starting side and interchange as Games 1 and 2. This is despite the fact that captain Boyd Cordner (calf) and Tyson Frizell (ribs) are under an injury cloud. These injury concerns have made the absence of Luke Lewis a talking point.

Suncorp stadium history

Fixtures at Suncorp Stadium Stadium tend to have higher total scores and wider winning margins than at ANZ Stadium. Since 2000, the average total score is 39.9 in Brisbane compared to 31.7 in Sydney. During this time, 10 games were won by 1-12 points and 14 games were won by 13+ points in Brisbane. In contrast, only 5 out of 25 games were won by 13+ points in Sydney.

Since 2005 the disparity has grown even larger, with all 17 games in Sydney won by 12 points or less, compared to eight 1-12 results and nine 13+ results in Brisbane.

Weather forecast

Brisbane has had a fair bit of rain recently, but the forecast between now and Wednesday looks pretty dry. There is a possibility of some light rain on Monday evening and Tuesday morning. View the Brisbane weather forecast.

Bookmaker odds comparison

You can compare up-to-date bookmaker odds across numerous State of Origin markets in the bookmaker odds section. Game 3 odds and markets can be viewed here.

Head-to-head and line betting

At the time of writing the best odds for Queensland were 2.15 (Unibet) while the best odds for New South Wales were 1.80 (bet365).

The Blues won Game 1 comfortably and were in a commanding position in Game 2 before some silly errors allowed Queensland to get back into the game. With Thurston out and the NSW forwards looking to reassert the ascendancy they showed in Game 1, I would back the Blues in the head-to-head at 1.80 (bet365).

Given the line is only -1.5 and Suncorp Stadium has had nine 13+ margins in the last 17 fixtures, I would also be inclined to take the Blues -1.5 at 1.90 (Mad Bookie), however I prefer the head-to-head selection due to the lower bookmaker margin.

Over/under btting

Most bookmakers have set an over/under mark of 30.5 or 31.5.

Fixtures in Brisbane have had much higher total scores than in Sydney, with an average score of 37.9 at Suncorp Stadium since 2007, compared to 26.9 at ANZ Stadium.

Since 2000, the average Game 3 score in Brisbane has been 44.6 which is much higher than average. Strangely, for Game 3’s played in Brisbane when the series is on the line, the average total score is even higher at 50.6 points.

Based on these trends I recommend taking over 30.5 points at 1.91 (Ladbrokes).

Exacta and quinella markets for first & second try scorer

For those who enjoy high odds wagering, Sportsbet is offering exacta and quinella markets for the first and second try scorers in the State of Origin.

An exacta wager is a bet on the first and second try scorers in correct order. A quinella wager is a bet on the first two try scorers in either order. Note that the first and second try scorers could be the same person.

To view the markets, go to the Sportsbet State of Origin page, click on the upcoming fixture, then scroll down and expand the ‘Player Markets’ tab.

We published an article on this market ahead of Game 2 and established that the best players to included in exacta and quinella wagers are QLD wingers (Valentine Holmes and Dane Gagai) and NSW centres (Josh Dugan and Jarryd Hayne). Based on recent form I recommend combinations using Valentine Holmes, Dane Gagai and Jarryd Hayne. The quinella odds for these selections are:

Hayne / Gagai – 81.00
Hayne / Holmes – 81.00
Gagai / Holmes – 71.00
Hayne / Hayne – 151.00
Gagai / Gagai – 151.00
Holmes / Holmes – 176.00

Other Markets

You can use the odds comparison tool to compare odds for the following popular player markets:

• Man of the match – shortest is Cameron Smith at 8.00, followed by James Tedesco.
• Anytime try scorer – shortest is Brett Morris at 2.75, followed by Blake Ferguson.
• First try scorer – shortest is Brett Morris at 12.00, followed by Blake Ferguson
• Last tryscorer – shortest is Brett Morris at 12.00, followed by Blake Ferguson