The following are previews with betting tips for Round 19 of the 2017 AFL season.
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Friday, July 28
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Hawthorn v Sydney7:50PM AEST, MCG |
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The Swans have now won seven games in a row, with their last loss coming against this week’s opponent, Hawthorn, back in round 10. Both clubs seem to have improved significantly since then, so this could be set up for another epic contest. It took a Jarryd Roughead goal from outside 50 with under two minutes left on the clock to get the Hawks over the line last time, and they’re likely to need similar heroics this week if they’re to repeat the effort. Despite their ladder position, the Swans are clearly the best team in the competition at the moment, and will have no issues with having to travel to Melbourne to play at the MCG.
As good as the Hawks have been in recent weeks, I think they’ll struggle to match the Swans in the midfield battle. John Longmire has already stated the Swans will look to quell Tom Mitchell’s influence, and if they’re at least partially successful, the Hawks don’t have enough depth to go with the likes of Dan Hannebery, Josh Kennedy and Luke Parker. It’s always fun to watch Buddy Franklin line up against his old mob and he’s in some sort of form at the moment, so the Hawks will need to be very careful of him otherwise they risk being blown out of the water.
It should be an entertaining game of footy, but I expect the Swans to be too strong and run out four or five goal winners.
Betting tip: Sydney (-13.5) @ $1.95 (Marathon Bet)
Saturday, July 29
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North Melbourne v Melbourne1:45PM AEST, Blundstone Arena |
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Melbourne’s win over Port Adelaide last weekend was hugely important in the context of their season, and it’s no surprise that their improved form coincided with the return of co-captain Jack Viney and fellow midfielder Dom Tyson. The Demons had been light on in the midfield department while those two were on the sidelines, and they didn’t waste any time in getting back into the thick of it. Viney had a massive first quarter which really set the game up for the Demons, while Tyson was his usual prolific self all day.
With a top four spot still up for grabs, they need to make sure they don’t let this game against the Kangaroos slip, as it’s one they really should win, and win comfortably. The Roos were once again brave in defeat against the Bombers on Saturday afternoon, but they just aren’t quite good enough at the moment. Ben Brown continued his stunning season with another bag of six, and this week they should be bolstered by the return of skipper Jack Ziebell and gun defender Robbie Tarrant, who was a late withdrawal against the Bombers. Todd Goldstein is unlikely to earn a reprieve after being dropped to the VFL, so look for Melbourne star Max Gawn to have a huge impact.
North Melbourne are sure to make the Demons earn it, but in the end the difference in class will prove telling and the Demons should win with relative ease.
Betting tip: Melbourne By 25+ @ $2.25 (Sportsbet)
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GWS v Fremantle2:10PM AEST, Spotless Stadium |
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These two clubs have played some of their worst footy for the season over the past month, so they’ll both be looking to turn things around when they clash at Spotless Stadium on Saturday afternoon. There’s much more at stake for the Giants, with a top four spot having gone from being a sure thing to merely a possibility during the past month. They need the win here, otherwise there will be serious question marks over their premiership credentials, if there aren’t already. They’ll need to do without small forward Toby Greene, after he was again suspended for two weeks following another undisciplined incident against the Tigers. They also lose Steve Johnson and Shane Mumford to knee and ankle injuries respectively, but are set to re-gain Jeremy Cameron and Stephen Coniglio. The constant revolving door at GWS is a real problem—especially missed games that could be avoided—and could end up costing them dearly in a year when the premiership race is wide open.
The Dockers are now out of that race, with the disappointing loss to the Hawks ending any chance they had of sneaking into an unlikely finals berth. They were really poor and ended up going down by a huge 52-points, with the loss continuing a confusing season for the Dockers. Despite GWS’s recent struggles, it’s hard to see the Dockers getting the better of them in Sydney. It’s likely to be a scrappy game of footy, but the Giants should be too good for Fremantle in this one.
Betting tip: GWS By 40+ @ $2.00 (BlueBet)
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Port Adelaide v St Kilda4:35PM AEST, Adelaide Oval |
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Port Adelaide’s top four chances took a hit in their 23-point loss to the Demons on Saturday, but what may prove more costly is the ankle injury to star forward-turned-midfielder Chad Wingard. He’s been in close to All-Australian form since being played as a full-time midfielder, and he will be impossible for the Power to replace. They’ll have to make do without him for now, and just hope he recovers in time to be fully fit and ready to go come September.
The Saints’ hopes of making the finals for the first time since 2011 have taken a hit with two losses in their past two games, making things very difficult for them from here. They must beat Port this weekend, but that’s easier said than done. Port Adelaide have proven themselves to be a very good footy side this year, but particularly when playing at the Adelaide Oval. Even without Wingard, you’d suspect the Saints would have to pull something out of the bag to knock Port off this weekend. They’ve done it before, with an unexpected win over GWS in round 7 being one of their best of the season—along with the demolition of the Tigers in round 16—but this one may be out of their grasp.
I expect this game to turn into somewhat of a shootout, and for Port to end up winning by a fair margin to keep their top four dream alive.
Betting tip: Port Adelaide By 40+ @ $2.06 (Ladbrokes)
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Gold Coast v Richmond7:25PM AEST, Metricon Stadium |
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The Tigers did what was required last week against the Giants, getting some sort of revenge for their previous shock loss to GWS. They gave their fans a scare by threatening to once again let the Giants back into the contest, but this time steadied to record a crucial victory. They face an easier challenge this week when they travel north to take on the Suns at Metricon, who are coming off a lacklustre performance against the Dogs.
The Suns were in the game for much of the contest, but fell away in the last quarter to end up being dealt a 54-point hiding. It’s not the sort of performance that’s going to do coach Rodney Eade any favours as he looks to secure a new contract, but they were always going to struggle with Gary Ablett and Steven May out of the team. Still, they’ll need a much improved performance this week, and for the remainder of the season, otherwise Eade’s papers will be stamped. Ablett and May should both return, while the Tigers will be without Dion Prestia and gun forward Jack Riewoldt. That makes things easier, but unfortunately for the Suns, I suspect the Tigers might still get right on top of them and hand them another big loss.
Betting tip: Richmond (-19.5) @ $2.20 (UniBet)
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Carlton v Geelong7:25PM AEST, Etihad Stadium |
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The Blues were always going to struggle without star midfielder Patrick Cripps, but I don’t think anyone expected they’d be close to 10 goals down midway through the 3rd quarter against the bottom-of-the-ladder Lions. They managed to lift in the second half and close the gap to just 11-points, but they couldn’t sustain it and ended up going down by five goals. In all likelihood they’re going to struggle to get another win in 2017. It’s hard to imagine them getting anywhere near the Cats this weekend, who will be stinging from a Friday night loss to Adelaide.
Geelong weren’t at their best, led by Brownlow medal favourite Patrick Dangerfield, who had his quietest game for a long while after struggling throughout the week to recover from a foot injury. They’ll look to bounce back this weekend against the Blues before a tough last four weeks leading into the finals. This is the last easy game they’ve got left, and I’m sure they’ll make the most of it—it should be a big, big win for the Cats.
Betting tip: Geelong By 40+ @ $2.55 (BlueBet)
Sunday, July 30
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Western Bulldogs v Essendon1:10PM AEST, Etihad Stadium |
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Following their win over the Suns, there was some talk that the Dogs are starting to return to form, but I’m far from convinced. They played a Gold Coast team missing Gary Ablett and Steven May, and while the final margin was 54-points, it was less than three goals at three-quarter time before the Suns ran out of steam in the last quarter. Tom Liberatore is critical to their midfield and he’s still under-performing, and they don’t have a forward line to speak of, especially with Jake Stringer on the sidelines. Jack Redpath was serviceable against the Suns but will miss this week due to suspension, which means the Dogs are likely to recall Travis Cloke for his first game back since taking a break due to mental illness, but they can’t expect him to come in and solve their forward structure issues.
The Bombers are a team without any issues up forward, having no shortage of dangerous talls and smalls. You’d have to think one of Joe Daniher or Cale Hooker will kick a bag against the Dogs’ small defence, and that could be the difference in the game. If the Bombers get on top in the middle—or even just match the Dogs in that area—their dangerous attack will make things tough for the Bulldogs. You can see where Essendon’s goals are going to come from, but the same can’t be said for the Dogs, and I expect Essendon’s forwards will get on top and be the difference in this contest.
Betting tip: Essendon (-10.5) @ $2.18 (Ladbrokes)
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Collingwood v Adelaide3:20PM AEST, MCG |
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Adelaide now sit a game-and-a-half clear on top of the ladder after dispatching of the Cats on Friday night, and almost certainly have a top two position all sewn up. It was one of their better performances for the year, as it came when they were under some pressure and up against a quality opponent. This week they’re forced to travel to Melbourne to face the Pies at the MCG. They’ll no doubt be looking forward to getting in some practice playing at the MCG, in the hope of running out onto the home of football again later in the year. They face a Magpies team who has now won two in a row, after an impressive come-from-behind victory over the Eagles on Sunday afternoon. It might not be enough to save coach Nathan Buckley’s job, but everyone at Collingwood will be heartened by the performance and perhaps even heading into this week with some cautious optimism.
The Crows are on another level to West Coast however, and I don’t think we’re likely to see another upset here. Similarly to the Dogs and Essendon contest, one team—Adelaide—have a dangerous forward line, capable of piling on quick goals, while the other—Collingwood in this case—can’t buy a goal at times. Even without Brad Crouch and Eddie Betts, the Crows are too good and should win this one.
Betting tip: Adelaide By 1-39 @ $2.25 (Bet365)
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West Coast v Brisbane4:40PM AEST, Domain Stadium |
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The closing game of the round this week returns to Perth, with the Eagles set to host the Lions. The Eagles are coming off a heartbreaking loss to Collingwood at Etihad Stadium that may have ended their finals chances, while the Lion are fresh off a rare win, after taking care of the Blues with ease. West Coast can’t afford any more slip-ups if they are to still sneak into the final eight, and it goes without saying that this is a must-win game.
They lose Lewis Jetta and Matt Priddis to injury, but will welcome the return of veteran midfielder Sam Mitchell, who travelled to Melbourne last week to act as an assistant coach. He may be a great teacher, but he’s still more valuable to the Eagles out on the ground. The Lions have lost Dayne Zorko to a controversial suspension, changing their chances of winning this game from very low to almost impossible. Young guns Hugh McCluggage and Eric Hipwood are also set for a rest after performing admirably for the majority of the year—it’s almost as if the Lions are happy to concede this one, which is probably fair enough. The Eagles will do their usual thing of avenging a loss in Melbourne with a big win at home, but unfortunately for them, it’s not the home wins that are important at this stage of the year.
Betting tip: West Coast By 40+ @ $1.81 (TopSport)
Best Bets of the Round
Essendon (-10.5) @ $2.18 (Ladbrokes)
Season Tally
All Bets: -26.14 units
Best Bets: +4.51 units