The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Gameweek 4 of the 2017/18 English Premier League.
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Manchester City vs. Liverpool |
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Back the draw at 4.05 (Marathon Bet)
Man City have gone 9-8-1 at home over the last 12 months. If you had placed $1.00 on the draw in each of those games you would be up $22.82. Liverpool have gone 9-5-3 away from home over the last 12 months, yielding a $4.05 profit had you wagered $1.00 on the draw in every fixture. Liverpool have a strong recent record of avoiding defeat against the top sides. Last season they were undefeated against other teams in the top seven. Over the last 12 months Liverpool have gone 1-2-0 as the away underdog, making the draw the value option.
As an aside, the over/under is interesting because the last two games between the two went under 2.5 goals, however 11 of the last 14 clashes have gone over. At the City of Manchester Stadium 6 of the last 7 clashes against Liverpool have gone over 2.5. The question is whether last year was an aberration or a sign of a break in the data once Pep Guardiola took charge of City.
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Leicester City vs. Chelsea |
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LAY (bet against) the draw at 4.00 (Betfair)
Placing $1.00 on the draw on every Leicester City game over the last 12 months would have seen you lose $12.74 ($6.82 on their home games), while backing the draw on every Chelsea game would have seen you lose $26.06 ($7.06 on their away games). In the 3 years since Leicester were promoted to the EPL, only 1 of their six clashes against Chelsea resulted in a draw, with none of their three clashes at King Power Stadium resulting in a stalemate. Over the last 12 months Leicester have been the home underdog 5 times, with none of those games resulting in a draw, while Chelsea have been the away favourite 14 times, with only 2 of those games ending in a tie.
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Southampton vs. Watford |
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Back Watford +1.5 in the Asian Handicap at 1.45 (bet365)
Southampton have lost 4 of their last 5 home games and have been held scoreless in 7 of their last 9 EPL fixtures. Over the last 12 months they have won 7 EPL fixtures at home but 5 of those wins came by a single goal. Watford, meanwhile, have started the new campaign brightly under new manager Marco Silva. They drew Liverpool 3-3, beat Bournemouth 2-0 and held Brighton to a 0-0 result despite being down a player for over 60 minutes.
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Brighton vs. West Brom |
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Back under 2.5 goals at 1.55 (Marathon Bet)
Brighton have failed to score a goal since being promoted, which has led to all three games going under 2.5 goals. Defensively they aren’t faring too badly for a newly promoted side, only conceding 2 goals against potent Man city and Leicester offences, before holding Watford to a 0-0 draw. West Brom are the masters of taking a 1-0 lead and trying to sit on it. It worked with 1-0 wins over Bournemouth and Burnley, but a late defensive mix-up saw them draw Stoke 1-1 after they had taken a 1-0 lead. Likely scorelines for this clash are 0-1, 0-0 and 1-1, which makes under 2.5 goals an attractive option.
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Everton vs. Tottenham |
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Back under 2.5 goals at 1.90 (William Hill) (small bet)
Five of the last 7 clashes between the two at Goodison Park have gone under 2.5 goals, including their last 4 meetings at this venue. At all venues, 6 of the last 8 EPL clashes between Everton and Tottenham have gone under 2.5 goals. Neither side has really fired on offence this season. Harry Kane has yet to score for Tottenham despite playing 90 minutes in all 3 games, while Everton’s new signings are having to compensate for the departure of Romelu Lukaku, who contributed 25 of their 58 league goals last season.
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Burnley vs. Crystal Palace |
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Back Burnley in the Draw No Bet (Asian Handicap 0.0) at 1.66 (Marathon Bet)
This is more a bet against Crystal Palace than it is a bet on Burnley. New manager Palace Frank de Boer is under immense pressure after only three games, with Palace losing all three without scoring a goal. Two of those defeats were at home to Huddersfield (0-3) and Swansea (0-2), so it’s not as if Palace have had a tough run of fixtures. Over the international break there were rumours that de Boer would lose his job even before the Burnley fixture, but the latest news is that he has one more game to prove he’s the man for the job. The problem is it’s being reported that many of the players don’t have faith in him, which makes it less likely they’ll go out there and battle to save de Boer’s job. Added to the mix is the fact that Palace remain without arguably their best player in Wilfred Zaha, who is still injured. They did sign Mamadou Sakho during the transfer window, and during his 8 starts on loan last season they went 5-1-2, however Sakho is still recovering from a knee ligament injury suffered at the end of last season and is still in rehab. Burnley did the double over Palace last season and as things stand they are in an excellent position to make it 3 in a row. The only reason I’m not backing Burnley in the head-to-head is because Palace picked up more points on the road than at home last season. Their best performance of the campaign thus far was a 1-0 defeat away against Liverpool.
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Swansea vs. Newcastle |
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Back Swansea in the head-to-head at 2.44 (Pinnacle)
Swansea have gone 6-1-1 in their last 8 games against Newcastle. Over the last 12 months Swansea have gone 8-2-2 in the EPL when installed as the favourite. Swansea boosted their squad at the end of the transfer window with the acquisitions of Wilfried Bony and Renato Sanches, who could both feature this weekend. In 2015/16, when Newcastle were relegated from the EPL, they went 2-3-14 on the road. In their sole away fixture this season they lost 1-0 to Huddersfield.
Back over 2.5 goals at 2.18 (Marathon Bet) (small bet)
Swansea have a strong over 2.5 goals tendency. Over the last 12 months their over/under records are 24-14 in all EPL fixtures at 14-5 at home. They come into this fixture on the back of a 2-0 victory over Crystal Palace and Swansea have a 8-3 over/under record on the back of a win.
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West Ham vs. Huddersfield |
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Back Huddersfield +1.0 in the Asian handicap at 1.57 (West Ham)
West Ham have started poorly. While the 4-0 defeat to Man United might be put down to Man United’s strong form, West Ham’s 3-2 defeat to Southampton and 3-0 loss to Newcastle were both to sides that have otherwise struggled this season. They will be at home for the first time this season, but West Ham didn’t have a particularly good time of it in their first season at London Stadium. Huddersfield meanwhile have had a dream start. They have picked up two wins and a draw and have yet to concede a goal this season.