The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Gameweek 5 of the 2017/18 English Premier League.
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Crystal Palace vs. Southampton |
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Back under 2.5 goals at 1.70 (Betfair)
Both sides have struggled for goals this campaign, with Southampton failing to score in three of their four games, while Palace have failed to score in all four opening fixtures. Crystal Palace start a new chapter under Roy Hodgson, who replaces the sacked Frank de Boer. I give them the slight edge over Southampton this week. They were unfortunate not to pick up at least a point against Burnley last week, while Southampton could only manage one shot on target in their home game against Watford. With that being said, Hodgson has only been with Palace for a week and star player Wilfred Zaha remains sidelined with injury. If I had to predict a correct score I would go for 1-0, however a 0-0 draw isn’t out of the question, and given Palace’s poor run at home, I can’t rule out 0-1 either. Regardless, I expect this to be a low scoring game.
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Huddersfield vs. Leicester City |
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Back Leicester City in the Draw No Bet market (Asian Handicap 0) at 1.68 (Sportsbet)
Huddersfield have started their EPL campaign well, however their opening fixtures have been kind, with the out of sorts Crystal Palace and Southampton among their four opponents. Leicester City, on the other hand, have had one win from four, but those three defeats came against Arsenal, Man Utd and Chelsea. The strong contrast in strength of opponents has distorted the form guide, which as made Leicester City good value this week.
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Newcastle vs. Stoke City |
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Back under 2.5 goals at 1.70 (Unibet)
The last five EPL clashes between the two sides have all gone under 2.5 goals, with four of those games going under 1.5 goals. For both sides three of their four opening fixtures this season have gone under 2.5 goals, with two for each team going under 1.5 goals. Stoke City have a strong track record for low scoring games, with 12 of their last 19 away fixtures going under 2.5 goals. Inverting that stat gives 19/12 = 1.58 fair odds, which makes 1.70 enticing especially given Newcastle’s total score stats this season and historically against Stoke City.
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West Brom vs. West Ham |
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Back West Brom in the head-to-head at 2.37 (Unibet)
Anything over 2.00 odds for West Brom looks to be good value. West Brom have a 8-1-1 record over the last 12 months as the home favourite while West Ham have gone 5-5-10 away from home. West Ham have gone 0-0-3 so far this campaign in away fixtures, conceding at least 3 goals in each of those games.
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Tottenham vs. Swansea |
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Back Tottenham in the head-to-head at 1.25 (William Hill)
At first glance the 1.25 odds appear too short for Tottenham, but they’ve won 16 of their last 19 home games, equating to fair odds of 19/16 = 1.1875. Swansea have lost all six away fixtures against Tottenham since being promoted into the Premier League, with Tottenham going 4-2-0 at Liberty Stadium. You have to go back to 1978 for the last time Tottenham failed to beat Swansea at home. Much has been said about Tottenham’s poor start at Wembley, however they got the monkey off their back with a 3-1 win over Borussia Dortmund in the UEFA Champions League during the week.
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Chelsea vs. Arsenal |
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Back Chelsea in the head-to-head at 1.80 (Sportsbet)
Chelsea have won 6 of their last 7 home fixtures against Arsenal, including their last 5 straight. Arsenal are 0-1-5 over the last 12 months as the away underdog. With Arsenal now playing in the Europa League, they have had to play their European fixture on Thursday, while Chelsea have had more time to prepare after playing their Champions League fixture on Tuesday.