The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Gameweek 10 of the 2017/18 English Premier League.
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Manchester United vs. Tottenham |
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Back the Draw at 3.50 (Betfair)
United bring a 5-game winning streak at home into this fixture while Tottenham have won their last 6 on the road, so something will have to give. Man Utd have gone 10-9-0 at home over the last 12 months but with a few injury problems and Tottenham’s hot form, I’m not prepared to back United in the head-to-head. If you had placed $1.00 on the draw in every Man Utd home game over the last 12 months you would be up $28.63 (compared to a $2.66 loss for backing Man Utd to win). Tottenham boast a 11-3-4 away record over the last 12 months, however during that stretch they have gone 0-2-3 as the away underdog. While Tottenham are in strong form, they have lost their last 3 visits to old Trafford without scoring a goal. With strong cases both for and against both sides, I will back the draw.
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West Brom vs. Manchester City |
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Back Man City in the head-to-head at 1.28 (Betfair)
Back Man City -1.5 at 1.85 (SBOBET)
Back Man City -2.5 at 3.05 (Mad Bookie)
West Brom have an atrocious record against Man City. Over the last 7 years they have gone 0-1-13 in the head-to-head and have lost their last 11-straight EPL fixtures to City. Man City bring a 7-game EPL winning streak into this clash. Five of those wins were by 3+ goals and City kept clean sheets in five of them. West Brom have a respectable 9-3-7 record at home over the last 12 months, however during that time they went 1-0-5 as the home underdog. Man City scored at least 3 goals in each of their last 4 visits to The Hawthorns and kept clean sheets in their last 2 visits.
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Crystal Palace vs. West Ham |
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Back West Ham +0.5 (half ball) in the Asian Handicap at 1.68 (Betfair)
Crystal Palace limp into this fixture with a 1-8 record for the EPL season. They’ve lost 12 of 17 home games over the last 12 months. Palace were beaten 4-1 by Championship side Bristol City mid-week, so their upset win over Chelsea is fast becoming a distant memory. West Ham have won their last three straight visits to Selhurst Park and did the double over Palace last season with an aggregate score of 4-0. West Ham also come into this fixture on a high after beating Tottenham 3-2 away from home in the League Cup. Palace do look stronger now that Wilfried Zaha is back and West Ham are winless away from home so far this EPL campaign, which is why I’m taking West Ham at the Asian Handicap rather than the head-to-head.
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Watford vs. Stoke City |
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Back Watford in the head-to-head at 2.13 (SBOBET)
Watford are worth a look at anything over 2.00 odds. They have a 5-4-1 record as the home favourite over the last 12 months and they look an improved side since Marco Silva took over in the summer. This is more a bet against Stoke City, however. They have a dismal 3-4-11 record away from home over the last 12 months and have gone 0-1-5 away from home in the EPL and League Cup this season. Stoke City have failed to keep a clean sheet away from home this campaign, while Watford have scored 2 goals in each of their last 4 games.
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Bournemouth vs. Chelsea |
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Back Chelsea in the head-to-head at 1.62 (Unibet)
Bournemouth have gone 1-1-4 as the home underdog over the last 12 months while Chelsea have gone 12-1-2 as the away favourite. Chelsea’s last 2 visits to Dean Court resulted in 4-1 and 3-1 victories. While Chelsea aren’t firing on all cylinders at the moment due to injuries, they still look to be reasonable value at anything over 1.60.
Back over 2.5 goals at 1.64 (Palmerbet)
This looks to be a high scoring clash. Bournemouth are strong going forward and do like to attack sides, which does leave them open to conceding goals. Chelsea’s wobbles over the last few weeks have mainly been due to defensive issues brought about by injuries. The last three games between Bournemouth and Chelsea resulted in 5, 3 and 4 goals scored. Chelsea’s last four EPL away fixtures resulted in over 2.5 goals, while 12 of Bournemouth’s 18 home games over the last 12 months went over 2.5 goals.
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Brighton vs. Southampton |
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Back Brighton in the head-to-head at 3.43 (Pinnacle)
Brighton have only lost one home game since promotion to the Premier League, which was a 0-2 defeat to Manchester City in week 1 after conceding two goals in the final 20 minutes. Brighton enter this fixture on a high after beating West Ham 3-0 away from home last week. Southampton are 1-1-1 away from home so far this campaign. All three games were against sides currently ranked 11th or below in the table. I give Brighton a 1 in 3 chance of winning this which is why I’m happy to back them at odds over 3.00.
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Leicester vs. Everton |
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Back Leicester in the head-to-head at 2.22 (Betfair)
Both clubs enter this fixture with different managers to who they had two weeks ago. Leicester City have appointed former Southampton manager Claude Puel to replace Craig Shakespeare while Everton will be led by caretaker manager David Unsworth after sackeing Ronald Koeman. Everton did the double over Leicester last year but Everton look a different side without Romelu Lukaku. They are 1-2-8 away from home over the last 12 months and currently sit in the relegation zone with a -11 goal difference. Leicester have a habit of lifting after sacking a manager. They soared immediately after sacking Nigel Pearson then lifted again after sacking Claudio Ranieri. Leicester City have played and won two games since firing Craig Shakespeare. They won 2-1 away against Swansea and beat Leeds 3-1 in the League cup. With a new permanent manager appointed the players will be out to impress.
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Burnley vs. Newcastle |
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Back Burnley +0.5 (half ball) in the Asian Handicap at 1.52 (bet365)
Burnley have been installed as the underdog for this fixture, which they certainly won’t mind. They’ve gone 5-2-3 when installed as the home underdog over the last 12 months. Had you wagered $1 on Burnley in each of those games you would be up $7.40 over that period, compared to a $0.01 loss when Burnley were the home favourites. Newcastle on the other hand, have gone 0-0-2 as the away favourite and 1-1-0 as the away underdog. Four of Burnley’s last seven EPL games resulted in a draw and the last two EPL fixtures between Newcastle and Burnley ended in a stalemate, which is why I’ve gone for Burnley in the Asian Handicap rather than the head-to-head.