The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Gameweek 24 of the 2017/18 English Premier League.
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Brighton vs. Chelsea |
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Back under 3.5 goals at 1.27 (Betfair)
Back under 2.5 goals at 1.75 (Betfair)
Chelsea looked fatigued in their 0-0 draw against a 10-man Leicester City last week. The January schedule, which has included League Cup commitments, has clearly taken its toll on the side. Chelsea have since played a mid-week FA Cup replay against Championship side Norwich City, which went to penalties after a 1-1 draw. The biggest impact of this fatigue has been on Chelsea’s attack, which has only scored 1 goal in the last 4 games in all competitions. They remain firm at the back, however, with only 1 goal conceded during that stretch. With the second leg of their League Cup semi-final tie against Arsenal coming up midweek, they may prioritize that fixture given the League Cup remains a great chance of collecting some silverware this season. Brighton are finding life in the EPL tough at the moment, with wins few and far between, but they have been decent at home, where they’ve only lost twice this campaign. Brighton’s biggest issue is finding the back of the net, with the side held scoreless in 8 of their last 11 fixtures. They tend to avoid being blown away, however, with recent losses away against Chelsea and Tottenham both by 2-0 scorelines. The combination of a decent defence and weak offence has resulted in only 6 of Brighton’s 17 fixtures this season going over 2.5 goals. The reason you might prefer taking under 3.5 rather than under 2.5 goals is because away from home there’s a huge drop-off between 2.5 and 3.5 goals for Chelsea. Over the last 12 months the side has a 11-8 o/u 2.5 record and a 5-14 o/u 3.5 record away from Stamford Bridge.
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Watford vs. Leicester City |
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Back Leicester City in the head-to-head at 1.85 (William Hill)
Leicester City have gone 8-2-1 as the home favourite over the last 12 months and were the better side until they conceded a red card in their 0-0 draw with Chelsea last week. They did have to play an FA Cup reply against Fleetwood midweek, but it was at home and Vardy was only brought on as an 81st minute substitution. Given Watford have lost 6 of their last 8 EPL fixtures, I’m still prepared to back Leicester City in the head-to-head.
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Burnley vs. Manchester United |
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Back Manchester United in the head-to-head at 1.591 (Pinnacle)
The last meeting between the two sides resulted in a 2-2 draw, but since then Burnley have failed to win a game while Manchester United have gone 3-1-0 in all competitions without conceding a goal. I actually prefer to back United away from home than at Old Trafford, due the high number of draws that result there. Over the last 12 months the side has gone 9-3-1 as the away favourite compared to 11-7-0 as the home favourite.
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West Ham vs. Bournemouth |
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Back over 2.5 goals at 2.00 (bet365)
Back over 3.5 goals at 3.45 (Unibet)
Both sides have been involved in consistently high scoring games. Five of West Ham’s last 6 games have gone over 2.5 goals while Bournemouth’s last 6 straight EPL fixtures have gone over 2.5. Four of the five EPL meetings between the two have gone over 2.5 goals with a total of 23 goals scored. Only 1 of those 5 clashes saw less than 4 goals scored.
Back both teams to score at 1.83 (Ladbrokes, Bookmaker, Betstar)
Four of the last 5 meetings between the two saw both sides score. Both teams have scored in West Ham’s last 5 EPL matches and both teams scored in Bournemouth’s last 4 EPL fixtures.
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Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace |
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Back Arsenal in the head-to-head at 1.52 (Unibet)
Arsenal have only won 1 of their last 4 EPL fixtures at home, but the games they failed to win were against Man Utd, Liverpool and Chelsea. As the home favourite Arsenal have gone 15-0-2 over the last 12 months. Arsenal have had the wood over Palace since they were promoted, winning 7 of their 9 meetings, including a 3-2 win at Selhurst Park, which is Palace’s only league defeat in their last 12 games. While Crystal Palace have had an excellent run of avoiding defeat, they have a lengthy injury list which will surely catch up with them at some point. Roy Hodgson has stated his desire to sign as many as 7 players during the January transfer window, which highlights how stretched the squad currently is.
Back Arsenal to win to nil at 2.80 (Unibet)
Of Arsenal’s 15 home wins over the last 12 months, 11 were to nil. Nine of Crystal Palace’s 10 away defeats this season have been to nil.
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Everton vs. West Brom |
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Back Everton in the head-to-head at 2.29 (Pinnacle)
Back Everton in the Draw No Bet (or Asian Handicap 0) market at 1.60 (Betfair)
Back Everton +0.5 at 1.35 (Betfair)
Everton have now gone 5 games without a win, including 3 straight defeats, but two of those defeats were to Man Utd and Tottenham and Everton kept clean sheets in both of their draws, one of which was against Chelsea. They’ve since received a boost by the signing of Theo Walcott from Arsenal in a deal worth more than £20m. Everton also boast the astonishing record of having gone 13-0-1 as the home favourite over the last 12 months. West Brom beat Brighton 2-0 at home last week to end an epic winless streak in the EPL. They have only won 1 away fixture over the last 12 months, however.
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Man City vs. Newcastle |
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Back Man City -1.5 at 1.35 (Mad Bookie)
Manchester City will be looking to bounce back from their 3-4 defeat at Anfield last week. Man City are on a 10-game winning streak at the City of Manchester Stadium and they’ve gone 15-5-0 at home over the last 12 months. Of those 15 wins, 11 were by 2 or more goals. Man City’s last 5 home fixtures against Newcastle all resulted in wins by 2 or more goals, with the last 4 home meetings all won by 4+ goal margins and the last 2 won by 5 goal margins. Man City come into this fixture having won their last 3 EPL home clashes by 2+ goals, which included a 4-1 win over Tottenham.
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Southampton vs. Tottenham |
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Back Tottenham in the head-to-head at 1.69 (Betfair)
Southampton have gone 0-1-3 as the home underdog over the last 12 months while Tottenham have gone 11-2-2 as the away favourite. Southampton are without a win in their last 10 EPL fixtures, while Tottenham have gone 4-1-0 in their last 5.
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Swansea vs. Liverpool |
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Back Liverpool in the head-to-head at 1.322 (Pinnacle)
Back Liverpool to win to nil at 2.05 (Ladbrokes, Bookmaker, Betstar)
Back Liverpool -1.5 at 1.98 (Pinnacle)
Liverpool have gone 10-2-2 as the away favourite over the last 12 months and have been in sublime form lately, going 4-1-0 on the road with their sole draw coming at Emirates Stadium. The last time these two sides met was in late December, which Liverpool won 5-0. Swansea have played 3 home fixtures against the top 6 sides this season and lost all three by 2+ goal margins and without scoring a goal.