The following is a selection of Australian racing tips for Saturday, March 24. The focus is on the Golden Slipper at Rosehill. Ascot, Doomben, Mornington and Morphettville are also covered. More tips and previews will be added as they become available.
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Best bets of the weekend
Rosehill Race 5, No. 1 Happy Clapper to PLACE
Rosehill Race 6, No. 2 Vin De Dance
Rosehill Race 7, No. 1 Written By
Ascot
Race 5, No. 1 Floyd – BEST BET
Race 8, No. 8 Snow Lord
Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:
Race 1 #6 Rebel Knight
Doomben
Race 6, No. 2 Mr Marbellouz
Mornington
Race 6, No. 4 Prussian Vixen – each-way – 3.5 stars
Race 8, No. 8 Parsifal – 3.5 stars
Quaddie: 3, 4 / 4, 6, 11, 12 / 4, 5, 6, 8 / 5, 6, 9
Race 7: Mornington Cup
Back Kings Will Dream (2.75) to win
Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:
Race 2 #7 Ashlee Marie
Race 7 #11 King’s Will Dream
Betfair – Feature Race Reports:
Race 6:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #2 Stellar Collision
Race 7:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #3 Cismontane
Runners are listed in number order, not order of preference.
Race 7: 1 Lord Fandango, 4 Gallic Chieftain, 11 Kings Will Dream
Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:
Race 7:
1, 2 are dual acceptors. SPEED: 3 leads 2 (if here) and 12, 6 with 1 (if here),11 handy. LORD FANDANGO just ran well in an Australian Cup at WFA. His Caulfield Cup run when wide was terrific. FOUNDRY won Metrop in spring beating Melbourne Cup 4th Big Duke. CISMONTANE held on okay fresh and that quinella ran well in the Australian Cup. He has Big Duke form too. GALLIC CHIEFTAIN did well at Stony Creek given 61kg. He wasn’t far off Lord Fandango in spring’s Herbert Power and has 2kg weight swing. BONDEIGER beat FASTNET DRAGON at Launceston and broke track record. KINGS WILL DREAM keeps winning!
Selections 1 Lord Fandango, 6 Bondeiger, 3 Cismontane, 4 Gallic Chieftain
Race 7:
KINGS WILL DREAM winner of five in a row after last start win at Flemington and won all previous races as a favourite, the testing material. GALLIC CHIEFTAIN coming off a win at Stony Creek and won five of 10 as a favourite, each-way claims. LORD FANDANGO 4 of five wins have come from dry ground and placed once this prep at Caulfield, capable of getting into the money. FOUNDRY first-up after 20 week break. Placed at Caulfield when last fresh and won two of seven first-up, needs the breaks.
Morphettville
Race 1, No. 1 Skillful Steps
Race 8, No. 3 Vantaggio
Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:
Race 2 #3 Tunes
Rosehill
Race 1, No. 3 I Am Excited – 4.5 stars
Race 2, No. 2 Consommateur – BEST BET – 4.5 stars
Race 6, No. 2 Vin De Dance – 4 stars
Race 8, No. 3 In Her Time – 4 stars
Race 9, No. 9 Hetty Heights – each-way – 3.5 stars
Race 4:
Best: Ventura Storm to Place ($2.40)
Value: Ventura Storm to WIN ($10.00)
Exotic: Box Trifecta 1,3,5 ($20 for 333.33%)
Race 5:
Best: Happy Clapper to Place ($2.75)
Value: Clearly Innocent to Place ($18)
Exotic: Trifecta 4-1-6 ($20 for 2000%)
Race 6:
Best: Vin De Dance to WIN ($6.00)
Value: Kaonic EACH WAY ($12/$3.75)
Exotic: Quinella 2,4 ($20 for 2000%)
Race 7:
Best: Estijaab to Place ($3.75)
Value: Estijaab to WIN ($12.00)
Exotic: Box Trifecta 1,3,5,10,11 ($20 for 83.33%)
Race 8:
Best: In Her Time to WIN ($3.90)
Value: English EACH WAY ($12/$3.40)
Exotic: Box Trifecta 2,3,5 ($20 for 333.33%)
Quaddie: 2, 4, 8, 10 / 1, 3, 5, 10, 11 / 1, 2, 3, 5, 13 / 3, 4, 9, 14
Race 5:
Back Happy Clapper (3.00) in the Winx Out market.
Race 7: Golden Slipper
My Tips
1. Written By
2. Sunlight
3. Estijaab
4. Oohood
Suggested Bet: Back Written By (4.60) to win.
Unibet – From the Trader’s Desk:
Race 1, No.10, TWILIGHT SONG – VALUE BET
Race 2, No.7, NETTOYER – LAY BET (bet against this horse)
Race 7, No.1, WRITTEN BY
Race 8, No.2, JUNGLE EDGE – BEST BET
Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:
Race 3 #6 Alward
Race 4 #1 Gailo Chop
Race 7:
1. WRITTEN BY, 2. Seabrook, 3. Ef Troop, Sunlight
Runners are listed in number order, not order of preference.
Race 1: 3 I Am Excited, 4 Beau Geste, 6 Isaurian, 11 Tarabai
Race 2: 3 Karavali, 4 Harlow Gold, 7 Nettoyer, 8 The Pinnacle
Race 3: 2 Lord Fandango, 6 Alward, 7 Admiral Jello
Race 4: 1 Gailo Chop, 3 Harlem, 4 Prized Icon, 8 Single Gaze
Race 5: 1 Happy Clapper, 3 Crack Me Cup, 4 Winx, 6 Kementari
Race 6: 2 Vin De Dance, 4 Cliff’s Edge, 8 D’argento, 15 Furore
Race 7: 2 Santos, 10 Sunlight, 11 Estijaab, 12 Oohood
Race 8: 10 Snitty Kitty, 13 Viridine
Race 9: 3 Sugar Bella, 4 Tulip, 6 Quilista, 11 Slow Burn
Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:
Race 1:
Rosehill copped almost an inch of rain overnight into Wednesday and it was still falling as this preview was put together. Expect more to come on Thursday and Friday, potentially plenty more – up to 40mm? The full extent of that means Heavy 9 or 10 will be offered up but there’s a chance we could get away with a 7 or 8. I’m presuming off rail will be the popular pathway but I wouldn’t put the line through those drawn inside. We start with a Listed sprint for 3YOs. BEAU GESTE’s final 100m when resuming has me buying in with him but 1, 3 and 5 should close off hard as well.
Selections 4 Beau Geste, 5 Brave Song, 3 I Am Excited, 1 Perast
Race 2:
All mares, no fillies here and it is a race in which the majority are well proven on wet ground. 7 of the 13 come through the Aspiration and there wasn’t much between the first five home in that race. PERFECT RHYME should have finished closer but you could make a case for each of the others. HARLOW GOLD and CONSOMMATEUR come from a strong form race (Oregon’s Day, Soho Ruby, Flippant) a few weeks ago but both jump from 1400m to 1900m. Not easy, maybe especially on wet, but there is some evidence that they will appreciate it. CONSOMMATEUR won this last year and loves it damp. Good early test for gate 1.
Selections 4 Harlow Gold, 2 Consommateur, 6 Perfect Rhyme, 3 Karavali
Race 3:
10 and 3 to lead out. 7, 5 and 1 will all have the chance to settle front half. 1 and 2 have also accepted for the Mornington Cup. I feel quite confident that LORD FANDANGO will not go out of his way when he has that dry track option but the Williams/Howley runner may well. Not that the Metrop winner FOUNDRY has any sort of Heavy track history – and tackling the 2400m first-up sets a real task – but I am loath to undersell horses sporting these colours in staying races in Sydney. It simply should never be done. ALWARD and ADMIRAL JELLO (expect consistency for the rest of this prep) next best.
Selections 6 Alward, 7 Admiral Jello, 4 Master of Arts
Race 4:
Three leaders here in 1, 2 and 7. GAILO CHOP’s wet track wins were long ago and far away. We’re going back to 2013, 2014 and 2015 in France for those victories while the wettest ground he’s seen in Australia is Soft 6. Even if CLASSIC UNIFORM leads out (and 3rd-up to 2000m he is ready to do just that) he will be in a good spot breathing down his neck. HARLEM, his Australian Cup conqueror, may not be as big a fan of the conditions up in Sydney town. SINGLE GAZE will do what she does – she fronts up in top races and runs her heart out. Already a G1 winner at this track and trip, you can’t knock her.
Selections 1 Gailo Chop, 2 Classic Uniform, 8 Single Gaze, 3 Harlem
Race 5:
We haven’t seen WINX settle top four since winning this race last year but with only five opponents, and among them CRACK ME UP and CLEARLY INNOCENT, you would imagine she finds herself settling ‘up there’ again. That may all change if she dawdles out from the outside barrier but we know that won’t faze her anyway. There is little question this is a superior lineup to that which she defeated first-up but we know she improves after a run and the rain plays into her hands. Then there’s the fact she’s an all-conquering, record-breaking, history-making superstar. That also helps.
Selections 4 Winx, 1 Happy Clapper, 6 Kementari, 5 Invincible Gem
Race 6:
Wow, what a Guineas! As is often the case it has a big New Zealand factor to it. 4 and 15 could lead out but 2 and 13 were handy in the NZ Derby and are likely to be here as well. VIN DE DANCE has a bit of Australian experience already and had a ripping battle with MONGOLIANCONQUEROR over the 2400m. I really liked the run of ENDOWMENT there too. Left a sitting shot he was and brave. How dropping back to the 2000m affects them we await to see. Locals on the right trajectory in their preps are ACE HIGH and VILLERMONT but do they want wet? We should expect CLIFF’S EDGE to be very tough to get past if he handles this way of running.
Selections 2 Vin De Dance, 4 Cliff’s Edge, 12 Endowment, 8 D’argento
Race 7:
I would like to be more confident but the big race presents as a little mysterious given the likely conditions. (Remember the quinella last year hugged the fence on Heavy 10.) Vigorous speed from low draws via EF TROOP and SIZZLING BELLE. Does ESTIJAAB want to try her hand from out wide? She may well get stuck deep if she does because horses drawn barriers 3, 4 and 5 are going to bounce and be just off the leaders (or even pressing further up). Factor in how this track is going to play with plenty of rain on it; it may be that camping off the fence is ideal anyway? And naturally they all have to handle the conditions on offer. SUNLIGHT has seen only Good tracks but she is the epitome of 2YO professionalism. WRITTEN BY stands alone in that he has raced on Heavy ground and, while you get the sense he’d prefer it drier, being the only runner race-proven on the likely going is not a negative.
Selections 1 Written By, 10 Sunlight, 15 Seabrook, 12 Oohood
Race 8:
Noted mudlover JUNGLE EDGE carried just 51 kilos in this race last year but was a very game 3rd (on similar conditions) behind Russian Revolution and Redzel. With a ripper 2nd to Redzel under his belt he can put his hand up for a Group One at last. LE ROMAIN should be powerful late. Handles wet without a worry and fresh form is appealing. IN HER TIME doesn’t have quite the same Heavy credentials but is a top grade sprinter coming in off a big trial win. Not marking her down too much at all.
Selections 2 Jungle Edge, 1 Le Romain, 3 In Her Time, 13 Viridine
Race 9:
Big numbers in the last but speed perhaps not breakneck. 8 could get out front with 6 in attendance. 12 and 19 early withdrawals leaving TULIP as the one-out filly against mares. Drawing way out could either help or hinder but we should have a fair handle on that at this stage of the day. She was a touch below my expectations of her last start (G1 against males mind you) but was still plenty good enough to give her top billing here. Placed in the Slipper on this day last year so I reckon she gets through the wet well enough too. SUGAR BELLA was so dynamic fresh and has some options from where she has drawn.
Selections 4 Tulip, 3 Sugar Bella, 8 Fragonard, 2 Faraway Town
Race 1:
Hard to split the top two selections. BEAU GESTE just missed as favourite last start at Warwick Farm when resuming and won at Rosehill in only second-up attempt, should go well. I AM EXCITED winner of last two at Randwick and Rosehill, in the mix. TARABAI has had a flying start to their career and, came on strong to win last start at Warwick Farm on a soft track, looks threatening. ISAURIAN last start winner at Warwick Farm when resuming and has won both races so far, place only.
Race 2:
NETTOYER kept chasing and just missed last start at Randwick, well placed. THE PINNACLE was narrowly beaten as a favourite last start at Randwick and has good early speed, the real danger in the race. HARLOW GOLD has won one of three on a softer track, sneaky chance. KARAVALI last start winner at Randwick and has run well with the sting out of the ground, could upset.
Race 3:
ALWARD has placed in two attempts this campaign and has very strong form at Rosehill, well placed. FOUNDRY first-up after 20 week break. Placed at Caulfield when last fresh and won two of seven first-up, in with a chance. LORD FANDANGO ran two lengths back from the winner last start in the Australian Cup and rise in distance suits, still in this. ADMIRAL JELLO kept chasing and just missed last start at Canberra, cannot be ruled out.
Race 4:
GAILO CHOP just missed when heavily backed last start in the Australian Cup. Has been running well this campaign winning twice and placing in all other outings, perfectly placed. SINGLE GAZE has one win and two placings in 11 Group I races, still in this. PRIZED ICON winner of two Group I races and has won two of six on a softer track, place hope. HARLEM surprised punters to win at long odds last start in the Australian Cup and won one of three with the sting out of the ground, place only.
Race 5:
Trying to find the Quinella here with a dominant top pick. WINX won 16 of 19 Group I attempts and last start win at Randwick took streak to 23 in a row, the one to beat. KEMENTARI last start win at Randwick took streak to three in a row, capable of getting into the money with a bit of luck. HAPPY CLAPPER won last start in the Canterbury Stakes when resuming and won two of 14 Group I attempts, include in exotics. CRACK ME UP won at big odds last start at Randwick and three wins from six attempts this campaign, for the exotics.
Race 6:
CLIFF’S EDGE strong in winning last start in the Alister Clark Stakes and will appreciate the cut in the ground, has solid claims. FURORE in outstanding form winning all runs to date and will appreciate the cut in the ground, the real danger in the race. D’ARGENTO has won at Randwick and placed once this prep, could threaten. VIN DE DANCE won last start and won in only Group I attempt, strong place chance.
Race 7:
SUNLIGHT last start win at Rosehill took streak to five in a row and carrying less weight, commands respect. OOHOOD in the money last start running third in the Blue Diamond Stks and never far away, looks threatening. ESTIJAAB led throughout for a dominant win last start in the Reisling Stakes and won or placed in three races to start career, still in this. SANTOS looking for a hat-trick after winning two in a row at Randwick, needs the breaks.
Race 8:
SNITTY KITTY faded from front position to finish just off the winner last start in the Oakleigh Plate and generally races near the speed, commands respect. SECRET AGENDA coming off a win at Flemington when resuming and proven performer on a soft track, don’t dismiss. VIRIDINE goes well on a softer track and down in weight, the real danger in the race. PARIAH first-up after 26 week break and trialling well, looks threatening.
Race 9:
Hard to split the top two picks. SUGAR BELLA looking to make it five in a row after another win at Randwick last start and rates well in these conditions, one of the main hopes. QUILISTA short back-up of seven days and last start winner at Flemington, should be thereabouts. TULIP has run well in these conditions and drops 1kg from last run, still in this. SLOW BURN comes to hand quickly and placed at Canterbury when last second-up, in with a chance.