The following is a match centre with betting tips for the 2018 FIFA World Cup Group F fixture between Mexico and Sweden. The game kicks off on the 28th of June at 12:00 AM AEST. It will be broadcast live on SBS Viceland.
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Mexico
- FIFA World Rank: 15
- Elo Rating: 18
- Qualifying: Won the CONCACAF Fifth Round with a 6-3-1 record.
Squad:
- Coach: Juan Carlos Osorio (Colombia)
- Goalkeepers: Guillermo Ochoa (Standard Liege), Alfredo Talavera (Toluca), Jesus Corona (Cruz Azul)
- Defenders: Diego Reyes (Porto), Carlos Salcedo (Eintracht Frankfurt), Hector Moreno (Real Sociedad), Miguel Layun (Sevilla), Jesus Gallardo (Pumas), Hugo Ayala (Tigres UANL), Edson Alvarez (Club America)
- Midfielders: Hector Herrera (Porto), Andres Guardado (Real Betis), Rafa Marquez (Atlas), Jonathan dos Santos (LA Galaxy), Marco Fabian (Eintracht Frankfurt), Giovani dos Santos (LA Galaxy)
- Forwards: Javier Aquino (Tigres UANL), Jesus Corona (Porto), Raul Jimenez (Benfica), Oribe Peralta (Club America), Javier Hernandez (West Ham United), Carlos Vela (LAFC), Hirving Lozano (PSV Eindhoven)
Recent results:
- South Korea 1 – 2 Mexico
23/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Germany 0 – 1 Mexico
17/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Denmark 2 – 0 Mexico
09/06/2018
Friendly, played in Denmark - Mexico 1 – 0 Scotland
02/06/2018
Friendly, played in Mexico - Mexico 0 – 0 Wales
28/05/2018
Friendly, played in USA - Mexico 0 – 1 Croatia
27/03/2018
Friendly, played in USA - Mexico 3 – 0 Iceland
23/03/2018
Friendly, played in USA - Mexico 1 – 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina
31/01/2018
Friendly, played in USA - Poland 0 – 1 Mexico
13/11/2017
Friendly, played in Poland - Belgium 3 – 3 Mexico
10/11/2017
Friendly, played in Belgium - Honduras 3 – 2 Mexico
10/10/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Honduras - Mexico 3 – 1 Trinidad and Tobago
06/10/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Mexico
Statistics: (last four years):
- H2H Record: 37-17-13
- O/U record
- O/U 0.5 record: 59-8
- O/U 1.5 record: 44-23
- O/U 2.5 record: 33-34
- O/U 3.5 record: 19-48
- O/U 4.5 record: 10-57
- O/U 5.5 record: 5-62
- Wins
- Total wins: 37
- Won by 1 goal: 21
- Won by 2 goals: 11
- Won by 3 goals: 4
- Won by 4 goals: 0
- Won by 5 goals: 0
- Won by 5+ goals: 1
- Won to nil 23
- Losses
- Total losses: 13
- Lost by 1 goal: 8
- Lost by 2 goals: 3
- Lost by 3 goals: 1
- Lost by 4 goals: 0
- Lost by 5 goals: 0
- Lost by 5+ goals: 1
- Lost to nil 6
- Clean Sheets and BTTS
- Total Games: 67
- Clean Sheets: 31
- Held Scoreless: 14
- Both Teams Scored: 30
Sweden
- FIFA World Rank: 24
- Elo Rating: 20
- Qualifying: Runners up in Group A with a 6-1-3 record in the UEFA Confederation qualification. Defeated Italy 1-0 on aggregate in the UEFA Second Round playoffs.
Squad:
- Coach: Janne Andersson
- Goalkeepers: Robin Olsen (Copenhagen), Karl-Johan Johnsson (Guingamp), Kristoffer Nordfeldt (Swansea)
- Defenders: Mikael Lustig (Celtic), Victor Lindelof (Manchester United), Andreas Granqvist (Krasnador), Martin Olsson (Swansea), Ludwig Augustinsson (Werder Bremen), Filip Helander, Emil Krafth (both Bologna), Pontus Jansson (Leeds United)
- Midfielders: Sebastian Larsson (Hull), Albin Ekdal (Hamburg), Emil Forsberg (RB Leipzig), Gustav Svensson (Seattle Sounders), Oscar Hiljemark (Genoa), Viktor Claesson (Krasnador), Marcus Rohden (Crotone), Jimmy Durmaz (Toulouse)
- Forwards: Marcus Berg (Al Ain), John Guidetti (Alaves), Ola Toivonen (Toulouse), Isaac Kiese Thelin (Waasland-Beveren)
Recent results:
- Germany 2 – 1 Sweden
23/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Sweden 1 – 0 South Korea
18/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Sweden 0 – 0 Peru
09/06/2018
Friendly, played in Sweden - Sweden 0 – 0 Denmark
02/06/2018
Friendly, played in Sweden - Romania 1 – 0 Sweden
27/03/2018
Friendly, played in Romania - Sweden 1 – 2 Chile
24/03/2018
Friendly, played in Sweden - Denmark 0 – 1 Sweden
11/01/2018
Friendly, played in the UAE - Estonia 1 – 1 Sweden
07/01/2018
Friendly, played in the UAE - Italy 0 – 0 Sweden
13/11/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Italy - Sweden 1 – 0 Italy
10/11/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Sweden - Netherlands 2 – 0 Sweden
10/10/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Netherlands - Sweden 8 – 0 Luxembourg
07/10/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Sweden
Statistics: (last four years):
- H2H Record: 21-15-14
- O/U record
- O/U 0.5 record: 45-5
- O/U 1.5 record: 35-15
- O/U 2.5 record: 19-31
- O/U 3.5 record: 9-41
- O/U 4.5 record: 4-46
- O/U 5.5 record: 1-49
- Wins
- Total wins: 21
- Won by 1 goal: 7
- Won by 2 goals: 8
- Won by 3 goals: 3
- Won by 4 goals: 2
- Won by 5 goals: 0
- Won by 5+ goals: 1
- Won to nil 16
- Losses
- Total losses: 14
- Lost by 1 goal: 12
- Lost by 2 goals: 1
- Lost by 3 goals: 1
- Lost by 4 goals: 0
- Lost by 5 goals: 0
- Lost by 5+ goals: 0
- Lost to nil 7
- Clean Sheets and BTTS
- Total Games: 50
- Clean Sheets: 21
- Held Scoreless: 12
- Both Teams Scored: 22
Group F Table
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Mexico | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
| 2 |  |
Germany | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 |  |
Sweden | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 |  |
South Korea | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | −2 | 0 |
Germany sit ahead of Sweden due to their head-to-head result being the fourth tie-breaker. The two are equal on points, goal difference and total goals.
Commentary
As things stand, Mexico are in the box seat to reach the Round of 16, but they will need at least a point out of this fixture to guarantee progression. Securing a point will likely take far more precedence than winning the Group, especially given that Group E remains on a knife edge, so it’s no certainty that the Group F winner will avoid Brazil. Mexico got their campaign off to a dream start with a deserved 1-0 win over Germany. The only criticism is that they should have scored more. Mexico then defeated South Korea 2-1. They always looked in control of that match with South Korea’s only goal coming deep into stoppage time. The icing on the cake was they didn’t concede any further yellow cards, so only two players are currently at risk of suspension coming into this clash. Mexico now boast an impressive 10-7-2 record in their last 19 World Cup group stage games. Mexican fans won’t need reminding, however, that while they have reached the Round of 16 in each of the last 7 World Cups, they failed to progress beyond that point in any of them.
Sweden started their campaign positively by defeating South Korea 1-0. It was more a gritty rather than spectacular performance, with Sweden’s only goal coming from the penalty spot, but they had the better of the chances and denied South Korea even a single shot on goal. In their second match Sweden lost 2-1 to Germany after leading 1-0 at the break, despite being denied what looked to be a clear early penalty shout. Scores were level at 1-1 until a free kick enabled Germany to snatch the win 5 minutes into stoppage time. In the end, Sweden paid the price for sitting back and for giving away possession cheaply, along with one too many needless free kicks. The nature of the result was heart breaking, but Sweden’s destiny remains in their own hands.
A win against Mexico would see them progress. Even if they win by a one-goal margin then the points, goal-difference and goals scored would be equal, meaning the head-to-head result would be used as the tie-breaker. While Sweden will be pressing for all three points in this clash, they must remain wary of Mexico’s strong counter attacking ability.
Betting
bet365 odds (subject to change):
Compare the latest bookmaker odds for Mexico vs. Sweden
While Sweden need a win, they will have to keep things tight given Mexico’s counter attacking strength. I’m expecting a low scoring game. Mexico have kept a clean sheet in six of their last nine matches and eight of their last ten wins, while Sweden have scored just twice in their last five matches. At the same time, Sweden have kept clean sheets in three of their last four fixtures. The last two meetings between the two sides totaled 1 goal or fewer and seven of the last eight clashes saw less than 2.5 goals. Given Sweden have won just 1 of their last 5 games, while Mexico have only lost 2 of their last 19 group stage games at the World Cup, I also expect Mexico will avoid defeat. Mexico are available at 1.42 and 1.74 in the +0.5 and 0 Asian handicap markets, respectively.
Betting tip: back under 2.5 goals at 1.77 (Betfair)
Notes
- FIFA World rankings are from the 7th of June and sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/index.html
- The World Football Elo Ratings are from the 11th of June and are based on the Elo rating system, developed by Dr. Arpad Elo. This system is used by the international chess federation to rate chess players and is considered by many to be a superior rating tool to the one used by FIFA. The ratings have been sourced from https://www.eloratings.net/.
- Squad lists sourced from http://www.skysports.com/football/news/12098/11374464/every-world-cup-squad-listed-argentina-brazil-russia-and-more