FIFA World Cup – Group G – Matchday 3 of 3 – England v Belgium – Preview & Betting Tips

The following is a match centre with betting tips for the 2018 FIFA World Cup Group G fixture between England and Belgium. The game kicks off on the 29th of June at 4:00 AM AEST. It will be broadcast live on SBS.

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Group G Table

(E) Eliminated; (A) Advance

England sit above Belgium due to their superior fair play score: England −2, Belgium −3

Commentary

England started their campaign positively with a 2-1 victory over Tunisia. It took a stoppage-time goal from Harry Kane to seal the win, but Tunisia were fortunate to receive a penalty while England had at least two genuine penalty appeals waived down and not referred to VAR. England then recorded their biggest ever win at a major tournament by thrashing Panama 6-1 after leading 5-0 at the break. They were far more ruthless and clinical on attack than they were against Tunisia. England looked particularly strong at set-pieces. VAR plays into England’s hands because teams can no longer be overly physical defending during free kicks and corners. Referees are more inclined to blow for penalties knowing that if they’ve got it wrong they can be corrected. The win also showcased some of the individual talent within the England squad, as highlighted by Jesse Lingard’s curling goal from 25 yards out. One of the highlight goals was the 6th, which culminated after 25 uninterrupted passes – the longest sequence for a World Cup goal since 1966. Harry Kane’s five goals this tournament extends his fine run of 15 goals in 9 games for England since 2017. This is in addition to 41 goals in 48 appearances for Tottenham this season. Given his importance to the England side, it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s left out of this fixture, however the latest news is that he will play. Dele Alli picked up an injury against Tunisia and is unlikely to be risked. Kyle Walker and Ruben Loftus-Cheek are one booking away from suspension, so are unlikely to feature either.

Belgium’s World Cup campaign thus far has boon smooth sailing, with a comfortable 3-0 win over Panama followed by a 5-2 win over Tunisia. The side continues to be a goal-scoring machine after averaging 4.3 goals during qualifying. Belgium also scored 11 times during their 4 friendlies, so 3+ goals per game has become the norm. Questions remain over Belgium’s ability to beat the best in the world, but they certainly know how to find their way past weaker opposition. With progression already assured, coach Roberto Martinez has said he will make wholesale – as many as nine – changes to the squad to keep the side fresh for the Round of 16. Romelu Lukaku has been ruled out of this clash with an ankle injury. Kevin de Bruyne, Thomas Meunier and Jan Vertonghen are one booking away from a ban and will likely be rested. Dries Mertens and Eden Hazard have minor issues so could also be left out.

Betting

bet365 odds (subject to change):

• England: 2.62
• Draw: 3.00
• Belgium: 3.20

Compare the latest bookmaker odds for England vs. Belgium

What could have been a great fixture has been dulled by the fact that not only have both teams already progressed, but you could make a case they would be better off finishing as runners up to avoid the top half of the draw, which contains four of the top seven sides in the world. The only side on paper that is better than Belgium or England in the bottom half of the draw is Spain. If the match is a draw then the top two positions will be decided by the number of cards accumulated. Theoretically we could see a farcical situation where one team deliberately picks up a yellow card to avoid finishing top, but I doubt either team will be willing to stoop that low. If both sides finish with the same number of bookings, then lots will be drawn to decide the final positions.

Belgium bring a 21-game unbeaten streak into this fixture, while England have only lost 1 of their last 15. When you look at each side’s recent fixtures against the top teams in the world, the results have been dominated by draws. Belgium’s most recent fixtures against top sides resulted 0-0 vs. Portugal and 1-1 vs. the Netherlands. England, meanwhile drew Italy 1-1, Brazil 0-0, and Germany 0-0. If both sides had everything to play for I would back a low scoring draw, but the lack of motivation and squad rotations throws a spanner in the works.

Gareth Southgate has been keen to insist that England won’t look ahead. You can imagine the headlines if they threw this fixture and were then knocked out in the Round of 16. Roberto Martínez, meanwhile, has downplayed the game’s importance. With Belgium expected to make a raft of changes, I expect England will avoid defeat.

Betting tip: back England +0.5 in the Asian handicap at 1.41 (Betfair).

With players receiving a one-match ban for two yellow cards during the tournament, I expect both coaches will have impressed upon their players the importance of not receiving cards in a match with relatively little importance. I would also consider backing under 3.5 cards at 1.71 (Betfair).

Notes

• FIFA World rankings are from the 7th of June and sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/index.html
• The World Football Elo Ratings are from the 11th of June and are based on the Elo rating system, developed by Dr. Arpad Elo. This system is used by the international chess federation to rate chess players and is considered by many to be a superior rating tool to the one used by FIFA. The ratings have been sourced from https://www.eloratings.net/.
• Squad lists sourced from http://www.skysports.com/football/news/12098/11374464/every-world-cup-squad-listed-argentina-brazil-russia-and-more