The following is a match centre with betting tips for the 2018 FIFA World Cup round of 16 fixture between Spain and Russia. The game kicks off on the 2nd of July at 12:00 AM AEST. It will be broadcast live on SBS.
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Spain
- FIFA World Rank: 10
- Elo Rating: 3
- Qualifying: Won Group G with a 9-1-0 record in the UEFA Confederation qualification.
Squad:
- Coach: Fernando Hierro
- Goalkeepers: David de Gea (Manchester United), Pepe Reina (Napoli), Kepa Arrizabalaga (Athletic Bilbao)
- Defenders: Dani Carvajal (Real Madrid), Alvaro Odriozola (Real Sociedad), Gerard Pique (Barcelona), Sergio Ramos (Real Madrid), Nacho (Real Madrid), Cesar Azpilicueta (Chelsea), Jordi Alba (Barcelona), Nacho Monreal (Arsenal)
- Midfielders: Sergio Busquets (Barcelona), Saul Niguez (Atletico Madrid), Koke (Atletico Madrid), Thiago Alcantara (Barcelona), Andres Iniesta (Barcelona), David Silva (Manchester City).
- Forwards: Isco (Real Madrid), Marco Asensio (Real Madrid), Lucas Vazquez (Real Madrid), Iago Aspas (Celta Vigo), Rodrigo (Valencia), Diego Costa (Atletico Madrid)
Recent results:
- Spain 2 – 2 Morocco
25/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Iran 0 – 1 Spain
20/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Portugal 3 – 3 Spain
15/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Tunisia 0 – 1 Spain
09/06/2018
Friendly, played in Russia - Spain 1 – 1 Switzerland
03/06/2018
Friendly, played in Spain - Spain 6 – 1 Argentina
27/03/2018
Friendly, played in Spain - Germany 1 – 1 Spain
23/03/2018
Friendly, played in Germany - Russia 3 – 3 Spain
14/11/2017
Friendly, played in Russia - Spain 5 – 0 Costa Rica
11/11/2017
Friendly, played in Spain - Israel 0 – 1 Spain
09/10/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Israel - Spain 3 – 0 Albania
06/10/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Spain - Liechtenstein 0 – 8 Spain
05/09/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Liechtenstein
Statistics: (last four years):
- H2H Record: 30-10-7
- O/U record
- O/U 0.5 record: 46-1
- O/U 1.5 record: 35-12
- O/U 2.5 record: 24-23
- O/U 3.5 record: 16-31
- O/U 4.5 record: 9-38
- O/U 5.5 record: 7-40
- Wins
- Total wins: 30
- Won by 1 goal: 10
- Won by 2 goals: 6
- Won by 3 goals: 5
- Won by 4 goals: 4
- Won by 5 goals: 3
- Won by 5+ goals: 2
- Won to nil 23
- Losses
- Total losses: 7
- Lost by 1 goal: 5
- Lost by 2 goals: 2
- Lost by 3 goals: 0
- Lost by 4 goals: 0
- Lost by 5 goals: 0
- Lost by 5+ goals: 0
- Lost to nil 5
- Clean Sheets and BTTS
- Total Games: 47
- Clean Sheets: 24
- Held Scoreless: 6
- Both Teams Scored: 18
Russia
- FIFA World Rank: 70
- Elo Rating: 44
- Qualifying: Automatically qualified as the host nation
Squad:
- Coach: Stanislav Cherchesov
- Goalkeepers: Igor Akinfeev (CSKA Moscow), Vladimir Gabulov (Brugge), Andrey Lunev (Zenit St Petersburg)
- Defenders: Vladimir Granat, Fyodor Kudryashov (Rubin Kazan), Ilya Kutepov (Spartak Moscow), Andrey Semyonov (Akhmat Grozny), Igor Smolnikov (Zenit St Petersburg), Mario Fernandes, Sergei Ignashevich (CSKA Moscow)
- Midfielders: Yury Gazinsky (Krasnodar), Alan Dzagoev, Alexander Golovin (CSKA Moscow), Alexander Erokhin, Yury Zhirkov, Daler Kuzyaev (Zenit St Petersburg), Roman Zobnin, Alexander Samedov (Spartak Moscow), Anton Miranchuk (Lokomotiv Moscow), Denis Cheryshev (Villarre
- Forwards: Artem Dzyuba (Arsenal Tula), Alexei Miranchuk (Lokomotiv Moscow), Fyodor Smolov (Krasnodar)
Recent results:
- Uruguay 3 – 0 Russia
25/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Russia 3 – 1 Egypt
19/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Russia 5 – 0 Saudi Arabia
14/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Russia 1 – 1 Turkey
05/06/2018
Friendly, played in Russia - Austria 1 – 0 Russia
30/05/2018
Friendly, played in Austria - Russia 1 – 3 France
27/03/2018
Friendly, played in Russia - Russia 0 – 3 Brazil
23/03/2018
Friendly, played in Russia - Russia 3 – 3 Spain
14/11/2017
Friendly, played in Russia - Russia 0 – 1 Argentina
11/11/2017
Friendly, played in Russia - Russia 1 – 1 Iran
10/10/2017
Friendly, played in Russia - Russia 4 – 2 South Korea
07/10/2017
Friendly, played in Russia - Russia 1 – 2 Mexico
24/06/2017
Confederations Cup, played in Russia
Statistics: (last four years):
- H2H Record: 18-11-17
- O/U record
- O/U 0.5 record: 44-2
- O/U 1.5 record: 35-11
- O/U 2.5 record: 25-21
- O/U 3.5 record: 13-33
- O/U 4.5 record: 8-38
- O/U 5.5 record: 7-39
- Wins
- Total wins: 18
- Won by 1 goal: 6
- Won by 2 goals: 5
- Won by 3 goals: 3
- Won by 4 goals: 2
- Won by 5 goals: 1
- Won by 5+ goals: 1
- Won to nil 13
- Losses
- Total losses: 17
- Lost by 1 goal: 10
- Lost by 2 goals: 4
- Lost by 3 goals: 3
- Lost by 4 goals: 0
- Lost by 5 goals: 0
- Lost by 5+ goals: 0
- Lost to nil 9
- Clean Sheets and BTTS
- Total Games: 46
- Clean Sheets: 15
- Held Scoreless: 11
- Both Teams Scored: 22
Commentary
Spain won Group B, but apart from some strong passages of passing play, they have looked unconvincing this tournament, particularly on defence. Spain looked set to finish runners up until Iago Aspas scored a stoppage-time equalizer against Morocco and Portugal conceded a stoppage-time penalty against Iran. Those results meant that Spain won the group and received Russia as a Round of 16 opponent instead of Uruguay. Spain started their campaign with a 3-3 draw against Portugal. They were the better of the two sides and were frustrated to have shared the spoils. Against Iran it took a large slice of luck to score the winning goal in their 1-0 win. Spain were also unconvincing against Morocco in their 2-2 draw. They looked shaky in defence, with Morocco unlucky not to have scored additional goals. Julen Lopetegui’s sacking 48 hours before the tournament has likely contributed towards their hot and cold form and their demise in defence. After conceding just 3 goals in 10 qualifying games, Spain have conceded 5 in 3 World Cup fixtures. This tournament they’ve been guilty of individual errors and lapses in concentration which have led to goals. While Spain have yet to hit their strides this tournament, they remain unbeaten in 23 matches in all competitions (15-8-0) and have scored in each fixture. Spain’s scoring streak is also impressive at the World Cup level, where they’ve failed to score in just 1 of their last 12 fixtures.
Russia enjoyed a dream start to the World Cup with a 5-0 win over Saudi Arabia followed by a 3-1 win over Egypt. The dominant results came as a surprise, despite the historical success of host nations, because Russia had been winless in their last 7 fixtures coming into the tournament and were ranked 70th in the world. Any thoughts of topping the group came crashing to a halt, however, when Russia were soundly beaten 3-0 by Uruguay. The heat did them no favours, nor did Igor Smolnikov’s departure for a second yellow card in the 36th minute, but Uruguay were already up 2-0 at that stage. They were limited to just 3 shots and 1 shot on target against Uruguay, but can take heart from the fact that no side has scored against Uruguay in 2018. In team news, Alan Dzagoev is likely out for the rest of the tournament while Igor Smolnikov is suspended for this match.
Betting
bet365 odds (subject to change):
Compare the latest bookmaker odds for Spain vs. Russia
Since the break up of the USSR, Russia have gone 0-2-4 against Spain. The last three meetings have seen 5, 3, and 6 goals scored. The most recent meeting resulted 3-3 in a friendly played in Russia. The prior two meetings were back in 2008. Russia looked out of their depth against Uruguay, which is a concern, but they can take positives from their draw against Spain last year and Spain’s poor defensive showing this tournament.
On paper you would expect Spain to win this. Russia have kept only two clean sheets in their 12 games at the World Cup. Combined with Spain’s scoring record, it’s reasonable to expect Spain to score in this fixture. At the same time, even when they’re not playing well, Spain always dominate possession. Since 2006, Spain have had more than 50% of possession in 32 of their 33 games at major tournaments. In their 2017 friendly against Russia they had almost two-thirds of the ball. Spain’s 15-8-0 unbeaten streak includes draws against Portugal, Switzerland, Italy, England and Germany, meaning they’ve gone 15-3-0 against all other opponents. While Russia have had two good results against Saudi Arabia and Egypt, those were their only 2 wins in 10 games.
Spain look a little short at 1.62 odds, however, given the threat of a draw. Given their defensive frailties I will opt for both teams to score.
Betting tip: back both teams to score at 2.28 (Mad Bookie). For a bit of run, you can get 170.00 odds with Betfair for the 3-3 draw. Spain have already been involved in 2-2 and 3-3 draws this tournament, while Russia have conceded 3 goals in one fixture and scored 3+ goals in the other two. The last time the two sides met the result was a 3-3 draw.
Notes
- FIFA World rankings are from the 7th of June and sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/index.html
- The World Football Elo Ratings are from the 11th of June and are based on the Elo rating system, developed by Dr. Arpad Elo. This system is used by the international chess federation to rate chess players and is considered by many to be a superior rating tool to the one used by FIFA. The ratings have been sourced from https://www.eloratings.net/.
- Squad lists sourced from http://www.skysports.com/football/news/12098/11374464/every-world-cup-squad-listed-argentina-brazil-russia-and-more