FIFA World Cup – Round of 16 – Colombia v England – Preview & Betting Tips

The following is a match centre with betting tips for the 2018 FIFA World Cup round of 16 fixture between Colombia and England. The game kicks off on the 4th of July at 4:00 AM AEST. It will be broadcast live on SBS.

View bookmaker promotions for the FIFA World Cup (excludes NSW)

Compare bookmaker odds for the tournament

Commentary

Colombia reached the Round of 16 as the winners of Group H. It had all started terribly, with Colombia losing 2-1 to Japan. Carlos Sanchez was red carded and conceded a penalty in the 3rd minute, which put Colombia on the back foot from then on. They showed plenty of character to get back into the game with a late first half goal, but the numerical disadvantage took its toll as Colombia tired. Colombia then defeated Poland 3-0 with a much improved performance. Star players James Rodriguez and Radamel Falcao both impressed as Colombia looked lethal in attack. They then saw off Senegal 1-0 in their final fixture. Colombia were lacklustre in the first half but managed to find a second half winner, despite having only two shots on target during the match. Nevertheless, they will be pleased to have kept two clean sheets in a row. Under head coach Jose Pekerman, Colombia have gone 6-2-0 against European opposition, so they will fancy their chances against England despite being the underdog. In team news, James Rodriguez left the field against Senegal with a calf injury and may miss this clash, while Abel Aguilar is available for selection again.

England finished as runners up in Group G after losing 1-0 to Belgium in a game where both teams effectively fielded second-string sides. The shape of the rest of the draw was already clear by then, so a case could have been made that it was better to have lost that match and move into the bottom half of the knockout bracket. The loss does mean that England face a much trickier Round of 16 opponent in Colombia, instead of Japan, however. England started their campaign positively with a 2-1 victory over Tunisia. It took a stoppage-time goal from Harry Kane to seal the win, but Tunisia were fortunate to receive a penalty while England had at least two genuine penalty appeals waived down and not referred to VAR. England then recorded their biggest ever win at a major tournament by thrashing Panama 6-1 after leading 5-0 at the break. They were far more ruthless and clinical on attack than they were against Tunisia. England looked particularly strong at set-pieces. Harry Kane has been the key to England’s success. His five goals this tournament extends his fine run of 15 goals in 9 games for England since 2017. One concern for England, however, was the lack of finishing edge when they left Kane out of the side against Belgium. If he were to get injured then England’s World Cup hopes would likely go out the window. Knockout fixtures of tournaments have been a problem for England. Since beating Ecuador 1-0 in the 2006 World Cup, England have failed to progress past their last five knockout stage ties of major tournaments. In team news, Dele Alli is available for selection again after missing the group matches against Panama and Belgium. John Stones has a calf issue, but is expected to play.

Betting

bet365 odds (subject to change):

• Colombia: 4.10
• Draw: 3.25
• England: 2.10

Compare the latest bookmaker odds for Colombia vs. England

In head-to-head history, England have a 3-2-0 record against Colombia, but the two sides haven’t met in over 13 years. Their last meeting was in 2005, which England won 3-2. Set-pieces could likely determine the outcome of this fixture. Four of Colombia’s last six World Cup goals have come from set-piece situations, while no country has scored more goals from set-pieces than England at this tournament. While Colombian goalkeeper David Ospina is regarded as an excellent shot stopper, he is considered vulnerable against high balls into the box from crosses and corners, which could play to England’s advantage.

England (when at full strength) are a tough side to beat. They went unbeaten in qualifying and since 2017 they have drawn the likes of Spain, Germany, Brazil and Italy. Colombia will have a tough time beating them in regular time, but the Colombians do possess enough quality to force a 90-minute draw.

On paper, this game should deliver goals. Colombia have scored in each of their last 8 World Cup fixtures and none of their 21 matches at the World Cup have ended goalless. At the same time, England have only failed to score in one of their 18 knockout games at the World Cup. If I had to pick a correct score I would go with either 1-1 or for England to win 2-1. Colombia’s last three defeats were by 2-1 scorelines, while two of England’s last four wins were by 2-1 scorelines.

Betting tip: back both teams to score at 2.25 (Unibet). Those looking for more risk should consider the 1-1 scoreline at 7.60 (Betfair) as well as the Colombia 1-2 England scoreline at 11.00 (bet365).

Notes

• FIFA World rankings are from the 7th of June and sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/index.html
• The World Football Elo Ratings are from the 11th of June and are based on the Elo rating system, developed by Dr. Arpad Elo. This system is used by the international chess federation to rate chess players and is considered by many to be a superior rating tool to the one used by FIFA. The ratings have been sourced from https://www.eloratings.net/.
• Squad lists sourced from http://www.skysports.com/football/news/12098/11374464/every-world-cup-squad-listed-argentina-brazil-russia-and-more