FIFA World Cup – Quarter-finals – Sweden v England – Preview & Betting Tips

The following is a match centre with betting tips for the 2018 FIFA World Cup quarter-final fixture between Sweden and England. The game kicks off on the 8th of July at 12:00 AM AEST. It will be broadcast live on SBS.

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Commentary

Sweden reached the Round of 16 as the surprise winners of Group F. It followed a commanding 3-0 win over Mexico and Germany’s shock defeat to South Korea. The strong performance erased memories of Sweden’s disappointing 2-1 defeat to Germany. In their opening fixture Sweden defeated South Korea 1-0 whilst denying the Koreans a single shot on target. In the Round of 16 Sweden defeated Switzerland 1-0, with the winning goal coming from a shot that took a deflection. Both sides squandered good scoring opportunities, with the result coming down to Sweden squandering one fewer opportunity than Switzerland. Offensively Sweden haven’t set the world alight, apart from their fixture against Mexico. Their strength has been their organisation, which has made them difficult to break down. They aren’t a team that dwells on possession, as highlighted by the 38% they averaged in the group stage and 33% against the Swiss, but Sweden are productive with the possession they have. They are also dangerous on the counter attack. Sweden qualified for the tournament at the expense of the Netherlands and Italy, and to get to the round of 16 they had to progress past a group that contained Germany. They then beat Switzerland, who are ranked 6th in the world, so you can’t say that Sweden are lucky to have reached the quarter-finals. In team news, Sebastian Larsson returns from a one-game suspension, while Mikael Lustig is out with a suspension.

England finished as runners up in Group G after losing 1-0 to Belgium in a game where both teams fielded second-string sides. They started their campaign with a 2-1 victory over Tunisia. It took a stoppage-time goal to seal the win, but Tunisia were fortunate to receive a penalty while England had at least two genuine penalty appeals waived away. England then thrashed Panama 6-1 after leading 5-0 at the break. In that match England looked particularly strong at set-pieces. In the Round of 16 England won their first ever World Cup penalty shootout after a 1-1 draw with Colombia. It wasn’t a great performance, with England paying the price for dropping back after scoring the opening goal, but the nature in which they bounced back from the injury-time equalizer to win the shootout was impressive. Colombia had entered extra time with all the momentum and had 80% of the crowd behind them, so the mental toughness shown against that adversity will have given England a boost of confidence. When at full strength, England are a tough side to beat. They went unbeaten in qualifying and since 2017 they have drawn the likes of Spain, Germany, Brazil and Italy. England have an impressive statistic of only failing to score in one of their 19 knockout games at the World Cup. In team news, Jamie Vardy is in doubt after injuring his groin against Colombia. Fabian Delph has rejoined the side after returning to the UK for the birth of his child. Gareth Southgate may bring in fresh legs for this clash, so Marcus Rashford and Ruben Loftus-Cheek could get starts.

Betting

bet365 odds (subject to change):

• Sweden: 4.80
• Draw: 3.30
• England: 1.95

Compare the latest bookmaker odds for Sweden vs. England

England have an 8-9-7 record against Sweden. They have just one win in their last eight competitive meetings against the Swedes, which was a 3-2 victory in the group stage at Euro 2012. Below are the 21st century results, in which England have gone 2-3-2:

10 Nov 2001 – England v Sweden – 1-1 International Friendly
02 Jun 2002 – England v Sweden – 1-1 FIFA World Cup
31 Mar 2004 – Sweden v England – 1-0 International Friendly
20 Jun 2006 – Sweden v England – 2-2 FIFA World Cup
15 Nov 2011 – England v Sweden – 1-0 International Friendly
15 Jun 2012 – Sweden v England – 2-3 UEFA European Championship
14 Nov 2012 – Sweden v England – 4-2 International Friendly

Fitness could be a key factor. This match is being played in the heat of Samara and both sides will be feeling the effects from the high frequency of fixtures. In England’s favour is they rested the bulk of the squad against Belgium, while Sweden had to toil hard for all three group stage matches. In Sweden’s favour is that England’s round of 16 match went to extra time and then penalties, with the England players looking emotionally and physically exhausted at the end.

Sweden aren’t packed with superstars, so they rightfully play to their strengths, which is to be disciplined and well organised, and look to hit on the counter or from set-pieces. The result of this is their fixtures have been low scoring. Ten of Sweden’s last 13 fixtures have gone under 2.5 goals and 8 of the last 12 have gone under 1.5 goals. Sweden have kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 6 games. They will find England difficult to break down too, with the Three Lions keeping 10 clean sheets in their last 15 wins. None of England’s previous 14 opponents managed to score more than once. A draw is a strong possibility and of Sweden’s last ten draws, four resulted 0-0 and six resulted 1-1.

Another point to keep in mind is from the 2002 World Cup onward, only 3 of the 16 quarter-final matches saw over 2.5 goals, while only 7 of the 16 matches saw over 1.5 goals.

For these reasons I will back under 2.5 goals, but with a small hedge bet on the Sweden 1-2 England correct score. Of Sweden’s last seven defeats, five involved their opponents scoring exactly 2 goals, while five saw Sweden score a goal. I’m also mindful that England haven’t kept a clean sheet in this tournament and 6 of England’s last 8 wins were by exactly 1 goal.

Betting tip: wager 0.85 units on under 2.5 goals at 1.56 (Betfair) and wager 0.15 units on the Sweden 1-2 England correct score at 11.00 (Betfair)

Notes

• FIFA World rankings are from the 7th of June and sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/index.html
• The World Football Elo Ratings are from the 11th of June and are based on the Elo rating system, developed by Dr. Arpad Elo. This system is used by the international chess federation to rate chess players and is considered by many to be a superior rating tool to the one used by FIFA. The ratings have been sourced from https://www.eloratings.net/.
• Squad lists sourced from http://www.skysports.com/football/news/12098/11374464/every-world-cup-squad-listed-argentina-brazil-russia-and-more