2018 State of Origin Game 3 – QLD v NSW – Preview & Betting Tips

The following is a preview with betting tips for Game 3 of the 2018 State of Origin Series. Origin betting promotions are also listed for those who live outside NSW.

In Game 2 New South Wales wrapped up the series for just the 2nd time in 13 years. They will have to be mindful the fact that the last time NSW had won the series in Game 2, Queensland thrashed them 32-8 in Brisbane in Game 3.

2018 State of Origin Schedule

Each game will be televised on Channel Nine.

Game 1 – Melbourne – MCG

Wednesday, 6 June, 8:00 PM AEST
Referees: Gerard Sutton, Ashley Klein
NSW 22-12 QLD (8–6 at halftime)

NSW tries:
James Tedesco (22′)
Latrell Mitchell (48′)
Tom Trbojevic (51′)
Josh Addo-Carr (70′)

QLD tries:
Valentine Holmes (28′)
Dane Gagai (43′)

Game 2 – Sydney – ANZ Stadium

Sunday, 24 June 2018, 8:00 PM AEST
Referees: Gerard Sutton, Ashley Klein
NSW 18-14 QLD (12–10 at halftime)

NSW tries:
Josh Addo-Carr (25′)
Boyd Cordner (31′ pen)
Latrell Mitchell (50′)

QLD tries:
(13′) Valentine Holmes
(20′) Dane Gagai
(63′) Will Chambers

Game 3 – Brisbane – Suncorp Stadium

Wednesday, 11 July 2018, 8:00 PM AEST

State of Origin History

Below are the State of Origin results since 2000. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.

Home advantage has been historically important, with New South Wales holding a 16-1-9 record in Sydney while Queensland have gone 18-7 in Brisbane since 2000.

2018 State of Origin Game 3 Squads

Queensland

1. Billy Slater (c), 2. Valentine Holmes, 3. Dane Gagai, 4. Will Chambers, 5. Corey Oates, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans, 8. Jai Arrow, 9. Andrew McCullough, 10. Josh Papalii, 11. Gavin Cooper, 12. Felise Kaufusi, 13. Josh McGuire
Interchange: 14. Ben Hunt, 15. Jarrod Wallace, 16. Coen Hess 17. Tim Glasby
18th man: Dylan Napa
Coach: Kevin Walters

In absence of the injured Greg Inglis, Billy Slater will captain the side in his final ever Origin game. With Inglis out, Dane Gagai will shift from the wing to partner Will Chambers in the centres. Corey Oates will start on the right wing. Also out injured is Kalyn Ponga, who impressed on debut in Game 2.

Queensland have also made some unenforced changes. Ben Hunt has been demoted to the bench, with Daly Cherry-Evans coming into the side to play alongside five-eighth Cameron Munster in the halves. In the front row, Jai Arrow and Josh Papalii have been promoted from the bench to the run-on side, with Dylan Napa dropping to 18th man and Jarrod Wallace dropping to the bench. One other change sees Tim Glasby promoted to the bench after being named as 18th man in Game 2.

New South Wales

1. James Tedesco, 2. Tom Trbojevic, 3. Latrell Mitchell, 4. James Roberts, 5. Josh Addo-Carr, 6. James Maloney, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. David Klemmer, 9. Damien Cook, 10. Paul Vaughan, 11. Boyd Cordner (c), 12. Tyson Frizell, 13. Jack de Belin
Interchange: 14. Tariq Sims, 15. Jake Trbojevic, 16. Angus Crichton, 17. Tyrone Peachey
18th man: Ryan James
Coach: Brad Fittler

The Blues have made just two tactical changes for Game 3. Paul Vaughan has been promoted from the bench to start in the front row, with Matt Prior dropping out of the side. Tariq Sims will make his Origin debut after being named on the bench.

With captain Boyd Cordner under a slight injury cloud heading into Game 3, Ryan James has been named as 18th man.

Suncorp Stadium history

Fixtures at Suncorp Stadium Stadium tend to have higher total scores and wider winning margins than at ANZ Stadium. Since 2000, the average total score is 39.4 in Brisbane compared to 31.7 in Sydney. During this time, 10 games were won by 1-12 points and 15 games were won by 13+ points in Brisbane. In contrast, only 5 out of 26 games were won by 13+ points in Sydney.

Since 2005 the disparity has grown even larger, with all 18 games in Sydney won by 12 points or less, compared to eight 1-12 results and ten 13+ results in Brisbane.

Weather forecast

The Brisbane weather forecast for Wednesday is party cloudy with a 60% chance of showers.

Bookmaker odds comparison

You can compare up-to-date bookmaker odds across numerous State of Origin markets in the bookmaker odds section.

Game 3 odds and markets can be viewed here.

Betting Tips

Head-to-head

At the time of writing the best odds for Queensland were 2.30 (Unibet) while the best odds for NSW were 1.74 (Betfair).

Queensland have been installed as the home underdog for the first time since 2006, despite the fact that history is on their side in these circumstances. Over the last 18 years, only two Origin series were won 3-0: once by NSW in 2000 and once by Queensland in 2010. The last time NSW had won the series after Game 2 and headed to Suncorp for a dead-rubber in Game 3, they were thrashed 32-8. Queensland have also won the last five straight Game 3 fixtures that were played in Brisbane. Also in the Maroons’ favour is they will be keen to end veteran Billy Slater’s Origin career on a winning note.

While New South Wales have won both Games 1 and 2, the gap between the two sides hasn’t been as large as predicted at the start of the series. Game 2 in particular could have gone either way, especially if Queensland had been sharper with their decision making, particularly when NSW were down a player. The reason most pundits remain bullish on NSW, however, is because the consensus is they haven’t yet played to their potential and the shackles have been freed now that the series has been secured. Also added into the mix is Queensland’s squad reshuffle due to a combination of injuries and poor performances. One interesting stat is five of NSW’s last seven wins in Brisbane were by 13+ points.

History is strongly on Queensland’s side, but based on the circumstances surrounding their injury-hit build up, I’m not prepared to back them. I will sit out the head-to-head market.

Over/Under

Most bookmakers have set an over/under mark of 36.5.

Fixtures in Brisbane have had much higher total scores than in Sydney, with an average score of 37.2 at Suncorp Stadium since 2007, compared to 27.3 at ANZ Stadium. In that time the average Game 3 total in Brisbane was 41.6. The last three dead-rubbers played in Queensland totaled 44, 41 and 40 points.

Based on these trends I recommend backing over 36.5 points at 1.95 (bet365).

Exacta and quinella markets for first & second try scorer

For those who enjoy high-odds wagering, Sportsbet offers exacta and quinella markets for the first and second try scorers in the State of Origin.

An exacta wager is a bet on the first and second try scorers in correct order. A quinella wager is a bet on the first two try scorers in either order. Note that the first and second try scorers could be the same person. The quinella odds range from 34.00 to 376.00 and the exacta odds range from 61.00 to 376.00.

To view the markets, go to the Sportsbet State of Origin page, click on the upcoming fixture, then scroll down and expand the ‘Player Markets’ tab.

Historically the best players to include in Origin exacta and quinella wagers are QLD wingers (Valentine Holmes and Corey Oates) and NSW centres (Latrell Mitchell & James Roberts), however based on the form of James Tedesco and Josh Addo-Carr, I would consider combinations involving them as well.

Dane Gagai could become the first Origin player to score ten tries in as many games. He currently has nine from nine, but will be playing out of position at centre rather than the right wing. This has two implications. First, it reduces his try scoring prospects based on the trend that QLD wingers dominate their try scoring stats. Second, it improves the chances of James Roberts, who will relish going up against Gagai rather than Greg Inglis. Gagai’s defence has been called into question after he missed three tackles in Game 1 and four in Game 2.