The following is a preview with predictions and betting tips for the 2018 FIFA World Cup final between France and Croatia. The game kicks off on the 16th of July at 1:00 AM AEST. It will be broadcast live on SBS.
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France
- FIFA World Rank: 7
- Elo Rating: 4
- Qualifying: Won Group A with a 7-2-1 record in the UEFA Confederation qualification.
Squad:
- Coach: Didier Deschamps
- Goalkeepers: Alphone Areola (Paris St Germain), Hugo Lloris (Tottenham Hotspur), Steve Mandanda (Olympique de Marseille)
- Defenders: Lucas Hernandez (Atletico Madrid), Presnel Kimpembe (Paris St Germain), Benjamin Pavard (VfB Stuttgart), Benjamin Mendy (Manchester City), Djibril Sidibe (Monaco), Adil Rami (Olympique de Marseille), Samuel Umtiti (Barcelona), Raphael Varane (Real Madrid)
- Midfielders: Blaise Matuidi (Juventus), N'Golo Kante (Chelsea), Steven N'Zonzi (Sevilla), Paul Pogba (Manchester United), Corentin Tolisso (Bayern Munich)
- Forwards: Olivier Giroud (Chelsea), Antoine Griezmann (Atletico Madrid), Kylian Mbappe (Paris St Germain), Thomas Lemar (Monaco), Nabil Fekir (Olympique Lyonnais), Florian Thauvin (Olympique de Marseille), Ousmane Dembele (Barcelona)
Recent results:
- France 1 – 0 Belgium
10/07/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Uruguay 0 – 2 France
06/07/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - France 4 – 3 Argentina
30/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Denmark 0 – 0 France
26/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - France 1 – 0 Peru
21/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - France 2 – 1 Australia
16/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - France 1 – 1 USA
09/06/2018
Friendly, played in France - France 3 – 1 Italy
01/06/2018
Friendly, played in France - France 2 – 0 Ireland
28/05/2018
Friendly, played in France - Russia 1 – 3 France
27/03/2018
Friendly, played in Russia - France 2 – 3 Colombia
23/03/2018
Friendly, played in France - Germany 2 – 2 France
14/11/2017
Friendly, played in Germany
Statistics: (last four years):
- H2H Record: 38-9-8
- O/U record
- O/U 0.5 record: 50-5
- O/U 1.5 record: 41-14
- O/U 2.5 record: 29-26
- O/U 3.5 record: 18-37
- O/U 4.5 record: 10-45
- O/U 5.5 record: 4-51
- Wins
- Total wins: 38
- Won by 1 goal: 19
- Won by 2 goals: 12
- Won by 3 goals: 4
- Won by 4 goals: 2
- Won by 5 goals: 1
- Won by 5+ goals: 0
- Won to nil 19
- Losses
- Total losses: 8
- Lost by 1 goal: 5
- Lost by 2 goals: 3
- Lost by 3 goals: 0
- Lost by 4 goals: 0
- Lost by 5 goals: 0
- Lost by 5+ goals: 0
- Lost to nil 4
- Clean Sheets and BTTS
- Total Games: 55
- Clean Sheets: 24
- Held Scoreless: 9
- Both Teams Scored: 27
Croatia
- FIFA World Rank: 20
- Elo Rating: 17
- Qualifying: Runners up in Group I with a 6-2-2 record in the UEFA Confederation qualification. Defeated Greece 4-1 on aggregate in the UEFA Second Round playoffs.
Squad:
- Coach: Zlatko Dalić
- Goalkeepers: Danijel Subasic (Monaco), Lovre Kalinic (Gent), Dominik Livakovic (Dinamo)
- Defenders: Vedran Corluka (Lokomotiv Moscow), Domagoj Vida (Besiktas), Ivan Strinic (Sampdoria), Dejan Lovren (Liverpool), Sime Vrsaljko (Atletico Madrid), Josip Pivaric (Dynamo Kiev), Tin Jedvaj (Bayer Leverkusen), Duje Caleta-Car (Red Bull Salzburg)
- Midfielders: Luka Modric (Real Madrid), Ivan Rakitic (Barcelona), Mateo Kovacic (Real Madrid), Milan Badelj (Fiorentina), Marcelo Brozovic (Inter), Filip Bradaric (Rijeka)
- Forwards: Mario Mandzukic (Juventus), Ivan Perisic (Inter), Nikola Kalinic (Milan), Andrej Kramaric (Hoffenheim), Marko Pjaca (Schalke), Ante Rebic (Eintracht)
Recent results:
- Croatia 1 – 1 England
2–1 after extra time
11/07/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Russia 1 – 1 Croatia
2–2 after extra time
Croatia won 4-3 on penalties
07/07/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Croatia 1 – 1 Denmark
1–1 after extra time
Croatia won 3-2 on penalties
01/07/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Iceland 1 – 2 Croatia
26/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Argentina 0 – 3 Croatia
21/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Croatia 2 – 0 Nigeria
16/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Croatia 2 – 1 Senegal
08/06/2018
Friendly, played in Croatia - Croatia 0 – 2 Brazil
03/06/2018
Friendly, played in England - Mexico 0 – 1 Croatia
27/03/2018
Friendly, played in USA - Peru 2 – 0 Croatia
23/03/2018
Friendly, played in USA - Greece 0 – 0 Croatia
12/11/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Greece - Croatia 4 – 1 Greece
09/11/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Croatia
Statistics: (last four years):
- H2H Record: 28-13-8
- O/U record
- O/U 0.5 record: 47-2
- O/U 1.5 record: 36-13
- O/U 2.5 record: 17-32
- O/U 3.5 record: 8-41
- O/U 4.5 record: 5-44
- O/U 5.5 record: 4-45
- Wins
- Total wins: 28
- Won by 1 goal: 12
- Won by 2 goals: 7
- Won by 3 goals: 4
- Won by 4 goals: 2
- Won by 5 goals: 0
- Won by 5+ goals: 3
- Won to nil 21
- Losses
- Total losses: 8
- Lost by 1 goal: 4
- Lost by 2 goals: 3
- Lost by 3 goals: 1
- Lost by 4 goals: 0
- Lost by 5 goals: 0
- Lost by 5+ goals: 0
- Lost to nil 7
- Clean Sheets and BTTS
- Total Games: 49
- Clean Sheets: 23
- Held Scoreless: 9
- Both Teams Scored: 19
Commentary
France
France qualified for the knockout stage with a match to spare after they defeated Australia 2-1 and Peru 1-0. They then made six changes to the side and drew Denmark in a game where a draw suited both teams. In the Round of 16 France came back from 1-2 down to see off Argentina 4-3. In the quarter-finals France defeated Uruguay 2-0. They controlled the game well and rarely looked troubled defensively. In the semi-finals France shut out Belgium’s highly-rated attack to win 1-0. Their centre-backs kept Romelu Lukaku quiet while France constantly looked dangerous on the counter-attack. They only had 36% of possession but France out-shot Belgium 19 to 9. While they haven’t been spectacular during the knockout stages, France have been efficient and functional. They will now look to make amends for their Euro 2016 final defeat to Portugal, which they lost 1-0 after extra time.
France are a formidable team, featuring a good balance of defensive resilience and attacking efficiency. Since losing to Portugal in the Euro 2016 final, France have only lost one of their last 16 competitive games, going 12-3-1. Their last ten matches have resulted 8-2-0.
Croatia
Croatia topped Group D after they defeated Nigeria 2-0, Argentina 3-0 and Iceland 2-1. In the Round of 16 they drew Denmark 1-1 in a match where Denmark had scored in the 1st minute and Croatia had scored in the 4th. Luka Modric missed a penalty near the end of extra-time which would have prevented penalties. In the shootout Croatia prevailed 3-2. In the quarter-finals Croatia drew Russia 1-1 and the scores were level at 2-2 after extra time. Croatia prevailed 4-3 on penalties. In the semi-finals Croatia recovered from a slow start to draw England 1-1, before winning 2-1 in extra time. After a shaky start they slowly grew in confidence during that match as England wilted.
Croatia have yet to win a knockout game in regluation time, with all three fixtures ending 1-1 after 90 minutes. They will have to find the energy to take on France despite having one fewer day’s rest and having played three 120-minute matches in a row. Will that extra 90 minutes of football catch up with them? With world-class players in their midfield, Croatia had been many peoples’ dark horse for this World Cup. They have gone 4-3-0 since losing to Brazil at Anfield in June.
Betting
bet365 odds (subject to change):
Compare the latest bookmaker odds for France vs. Croatia
France have a 3-2-0 record against Croatia, but the two sides haven’t played since 2011. The last two meetings resulted in draws.
08 Jul 1998 – France v Croatia – 2-1 – FIFA World Cup
13 Nov 1999 – France v Croatia 3-0 – International Friendly
28 May 2000 – Croatia v France – 0-2 – International Friendly
17 Jun 2004 – Croatia v France – 2-2 – UEFA European Championship
29 Mar 2011 – France v Croatia – 0-0 – International Friendly
Source: 11v11.com
Recent World Cup finals have been low scoring affairs, with six of the last seven going under 2.5 goals and four going under 1.5. Three were 0-0 after 90 minutes, including the 2010 and 2014 finals. Below are the World Cup final results since 1990:
2014: Germany 1-0 Argentina (AET)
2010: Netherlands 0-1 Spain (AET)
2006: Italy 1-1 France (Italy won on penalties)
2002: Germany 0-2 Brazil
1998: Brazil 0-3 France
1994: Brazil 0-0 Italy (Brazil won on penalties)
1990: Argentina 0-1 West Germany
Another point to note is both teams scored in only 1 of the previous seven finals.
If Croatia do lose this fixture in regular time, there’s a decent chance it will be to nil. Over the last four years 7 of their 8 defeats have been without scoring. Croatia have a consistent record of being involved in low scoring games, with 8 of their last 11 fixtures going under 2.5 goals after 90 minutes. France, meanwhile, have seen 5 of their last 7 matches go under this total.
Prediction
A 0-0 draw after 90 minutes is definitely on the cards, but I expect Croatia’s shortened rest ahead of this clash combined with the three sets of extra time will catch up with them. France have been brutally efficient in the last two rounds as they shut out Uruguay and Belgium. I expect they will score the opening goal and then keep Croatia at bay until the final whistle. I predict France will prevail in a low scoring affair.
Betting tips
Back No in the Both Teams To Score (BTTS) market at 1.60 (Neds). Also consider under 2.5 goals at 1.53 (Betfair). Note that both of these markets are for 90 minutes and don’t include extra time.
For those who want to bet on the World Cup winner, I would back France at 1.50 (Betfair).
In the man of the match market, consider Antoine Griezmann. He has been directly involved in 20 goals in his last 20 competitive games for France (12 goals, 8 assists). He has also been directly involved in 13 of France’s last 20 goals scored in major tournaments (World Cup and Euros), with nine goals and four assists.
Notes
- FIFA World rankings are from the 7th of June and sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/index.html
- The World Football Elo Ratings are from the 11th of June and are based on the Elo rating system, developed by Dr. Arpad Elo. This system is used by the international chess federation to rate chess players and is considered by many to be a superior rating tool to the one used by FIFA. The ratings have been sourced from https://www.eloratings.net/.
- Squad lists sourced from http://www.skysports.com/football/news/12098/11374464/every-world-cup-squad-listed-argentina-brazil-russia-and-more