The following is a preview with predictions and betting tips for the 2018 FIFA World Cup third place play-off between Belgium and England. The game kicks off on the 15th of July at 12:00 AM AEST. It will be broadcast live on SBS.
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Belgium
- FIFA World Rank: 3
- Elo Rating: 8
- Qualifying: Won Group H with a 9-1-0 record in the UEFA Confederation qualification.
Squad:
- Coach: Roberto Martínez (Spain)
- Goalkeepers: Thibaut Courtois (Chelsea), Simon Mignolet (Liverpool), Koen Casteels (VfL Wolfsburg)
- Defenders: Toby Alderweireld Tottenham), Dedryck Boyata (Celtic), Jan Vertonghen (Tottenham), Vincent Kompany (Manchester City), Thomas Vermaelen (Barcelona), Thomas Meunier (PSG)
- Midfielders: Youri Tielemans (AS Monaco), Axel Witsel (Tianjin Quanjian), Kevin de Bruyne (Manchester City), Mousa Dembele (Tottenham), Leander Dendoncker (Anderlecht), Marouane Fellaini (Manchester United), Thorgan Hazard (Borussia Monchengladbach), Dries Mertens (Na
- Forwards: Michy Batshuayi (Chelsea), Romelu Lukaku (Manchester United), Eden Hazard (Chelsea), Adnan Januzaj (Real Sociedad), Yannick Carrasco (Atletico Madrid)
Recent results:
- France 1 – 0 Belgium
10/07/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Brazil 1 – 2 Belgium
06/07/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Belgium 3 – 2 Japan
02/07/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - England 0 – 1 Belgium
28/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Belgium 5 – 2 Tunisia
23/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Belgium 3 – 0 Panama
18/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Belgium 4 – 1 Costa Rica
11/06/2018
Friendly, played in Belgium - Belgium 3 – 0 Egypt
06/06/2018
Friendly, played in Belgium - Belgium 0 – 0 Portugal
02/06/2018
Friendly, played in Belgium - Belgium 4 – 0 Saudi Arabia
27/03/2018
Friendly, played in Belgium - Belgium 1 – 0 Japan
14/11/2017
Friendly, played in Belgium - Belgium 3 – 3 Mexico
10/11/2017
Friendly, played in Belgium
Statistics: (last four years):
- H2H Record: 35-8-6
- O/U record
- O/U 0.5 record: 47-2
- O/U 1.5 record: 40-9
- O/U 2.5 record: 32-17
- O/U 3.5 record: 23-26
- O/U 4.5 record: 14-35
- O/U 5.5 record: 9-40
- Wins
- Total wins: 35
- Won by 1 goal: 13
- Won by 2 goals: 6
- Won by 3 goals: 7
- Won by 4 goals: 4
- Won by 5 goals: 1
- Won by 5+ goals: 4
- Won to nil 19
- Losses
- Total losses: 6
- Lost by 1 goal: 3
- Lost by 2 goals: 3
- Lost by 3 goals: 0
- Lost by 4 goals: 0
- Lost by 5 goals: 0
- Lost by 5+ goals: 0
- Lost to nil 4
- Clean Sheets and BTTS
- Total Games: 49
- Clean Sheets: 21
- Held Scoreless: 6
- Both Teams Scored: 24
England
- FIFA World Rank: 12
- Elo Rating: 7
- Qualifying: Won Group F with an 8-2-0 record in the UEFA Confederation qualification.
Squad:
- Coach: Gareth Southgate
- Goalkeepers: Jordan Pickford (Everton), Jack Butland (Stoke City), Nick Pope (Burnley)
- Defenders: Kyle Walker (Manchester City), John Stones (Manchester City), Harry Maguire (Leicester City), Danny Rose (Tottenham), Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool), Ashley Young (Manchester United), Gary Cahill (Chelsea), Phil Jones (Manchester United), Kieran Tripp
- Midfielders: Jordan Henderson (Liverpool), Eric Dier (Tottenham), Dele Alli (Tottenham), Jesse Lingard (Manchester United), Raheem Sterling (Manchester City), Ruben Loftus-Cheek (Crystal Palace), Fabian Delph (Manchester City)
- Forwards: Harry Kane (Tottenham), Jamie Vardy (Leicester City), Marcus Rashford (Manchester United), Danny Welbeck (Arsenal)
Recent results:
- Croatia 1 – 1 England
2–1 after extra time
11/07/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Sweden 0 – 2 England
07/07/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Colombia 1 – 1 England
1–1 after extra time
England won 4-3 on penalties
03/07/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - England 0 – 1 Belgium
28/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - England 6 – 1 Panama
24/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Tunisia 1 – 2 England
18/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - England 2 – 0 Costa Rica
07/06/2018
Friendly, played in England - England 2 – 1 Nigeria
02/06/2018
Friendly, played in England - England 1 – 1 Italy
27/03/2018
Friendly, played in England - Netherlands 0 – 1 England
23/03/2018
Friendly, played in Netherlands - England 0 – 0 Brazil
14/11/2017
Friendly, played in England - England 0 – 0 Germany
10/11/2017
Friendly, played in England
Statistics: (last four years):
- H2H Record: 32-12-6
- O/U record
- O/U 0.5 record: 45-5
- O/U 1.5 record: 36-14
- O/U 2.5 record: 22-28
- O/U 3.5 record: 12-38
- O/U 4.5 record: 6-44
- O/U 5.5 record: 2-48
- Wins
- Total wins: 32
- Won by 1 goal: 15
- Won by 2 goals: 10
- Won by 3 goals: 2
- Won by 4 goals: 2
- Won by 5 goals: 2
- Won by 5+ goals: 1
- Won to nil 21
- Losses
- Total losses: 6
- Lost by 1 goal: 5
- Lost by 2 goals: 1
- Lost by 3 goals: 0
- Lost by 4 goals: 0
- Lost by 5 goals: 0
- Lost by 5+ goals: 0
- Lost to nil 3
- Clean Sheets and BTTS
- Total Games: 50
- Clean Sheets: 26
- Held Scoreless: 8
- Both Teams Scored: 21
Commentary
Belgium
After being a goal-scoring machine over the last year, Belgium’s World Cup title chances went out with a whimper. They coasted into the knockout stage as the winners of Group G. After beating Panama 3-0 and Tunisia 5-2, Belgium defeated England 1-0 in a game where both sides fielded second-string teams. In the Round of 16 Belgium came back from 0-2 down to defeat Japan 3-2. In the quarter-finals Belgium put in a much more assured display as they saw off Brazil 2-1. Finding the net twice was no easy feat given Brazil had conceded just 1 goal in 8 fixtures and it was the first time in 30 matches that Brazil had conceded more than once. In the semi-finals Belgium lost 1-0 to France. They had 64% of possession but were unable to make it count and they rarely threatened after they went a goal down. Despite dominating possession they managed fewer than half the number of shots as France.
Since losing to Spain in a friendly in 2016, Belgium have gone 19-5-1 under Roberto Martinez and have won 7 of their last 8 games. Their golden generation of players has lived up to the hype, despite their disappointment at not making the final. In team news, defender Thomas Meunier is again available after he was suspended for the semi-final due to a second booking in the tournament. Meunier was sorely missed against France so his return will lift Belgium.
England
England reached the knockouts as the runners-up in Group G behind Belgium. They started their campaign with a 2-1 victory over Tunisia. England then thrashed Panama 6-1 after leading 5-0 at the break. In their final group stage game both England and Belgium rotated their squads and Belgium prevailed 1-0. In the Round of 16 England won on penalties after a 1-1 draw with Colombia. It wasn’t a great performance but the nature in which they bounced back from the injury-time equalizer was impressive. In the quarter-finals England defeated Sweden 2-0. England controlled the game well and defensively they were good enough to keep Sweden out, largely due to goalkeeper Jordan Pickford. In the semi-finals England took an early 1-0 lead after starting the stronger of the two sides. They then paid the price for wasting good opportunities to score a second goal and make their dominance count. Croatia worked their way into the game in the second half and found the equalizer before defeating England 2-1 in extra time. England faded as the game wore on and were out-shot 22 times to 11, with Croatia managing 7 shots on target compared to England’s 2.
England will now have to find the energy to bounce back from two 120-minute matches out of three games and take on Belgium on a short turnaround. They faded badly in the second half against Croatia, which is a concern, given Belgium haven’t had to go into extra time this tournament and they have the benefit of an additional day’s rest. England’s set pieces will keep them in the game, however. They have scored nine goals from set pieces at this World Cup – the most by a team in a single tournament since 1966. Set pieces were Belgium’s undoing against France as they conceded the only goal from a corner.
Betting
bet365 odds (subject to change):
Compare the latest bookmaker odds for Belgium vs. England
The majority of the Belgian squad play in the English Premier League, so England will know their opponents well. After the disappointment of seeing both sides rotate their squads in the group stage, it will be good to see them go head-to-head at full strength.
In the head-to-head England have a dominant 15-4-3 record against Belgium, however the majority of those wins were prior to the 1960’s. They have only played twice with any of the current squad members and their most recent meeting featured both side’s reserve players.
27 Jun 1990 England v Belgium – 1-0 FIFA World Cup
29 May 1998 Belgium v England – 0-0 King Hassan II Cup
10 Oct 1999 England v Belgium – 2-1 International Friendly
02 Jun 2012 England v Belgium – 1-0 International Friendly
28 Jun 2018 England v Belgium – 0-1 FIFA World Cup
Source: 11v11.com
Unlike World Cup finals, World Cup third-place playoffs tend to be high scoring affairs. The last ten playoffs have all gone over 2.5 goals, with six of them going over 3.5 goals:
2014: Brazil 0-3 Netherlands
2010: Uruguay 2-3 Germany
2006: Germany 3-1 Portugal
2002: South Korea 2-3 Turkey
1998: Netherlands 1-2 Croatia
1994: Sweden 4-0 Bulgaria
1990: Italy 2-1 England
1986: Belgium 2-2 France (France won 4-2 AET)
1982: Poland 3-2 France
1978: Brazil 2-1 Italy
Another point of note is 9 of these 10 games had a winner after 90 minutes, with no extra time or penalties required. Both teams scored in 8 of them.
Predictions
With Belgium given an extra day’s rest ahead of this clash, plus the high quality of their golden generation squad, I back Belgium to win this in normal time. England will probably keep it competitive going into the half before fading in the second spell as they did against Croatia, due to accumulative fatigue.
Betting tips:
Back Belgium in the head-to-head at 2.25 (bet365) and back over 2.5 goals at 1.66 (Betfair). Also consider the draw/Belgium HT/FT selection at 6.25 (Unibet).
Some correct scores to consider are Belgium 2-1 England at 10.00 (bet365), Belgium 3-1 England at 17.00 (bet365) and Belgium 3-2 England at 29.00 (bet365).
Notes
- FIFA World rankings are from the 7th of June and sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/index.html
- The World Football Elo Ratings are from the 11th of June and are based on the Elo rating system, developed by Dr. Arpad Elo. This system is used by the international chess federation to rate chess players and is considered by many to be a superior rating tool to the one used by FIFA. The ratings have been sourced from https://www.eloratings.net/.
- Squad lists sourced from http://www.skysports.com/football/news/12098/11374464/every-world-cup-squad-listed-argentina-brazil-russia-and-more