Introduction

The following is a team-by-team preview for the 2019 Super Rugby season. Betting resources and futures betting tips are also provided. These details will be updated as more information becomes available. New and departed players lists are sourced from Wikipedia while squad lists have been sourced from The Roar.

Competition Format

The format is the same as last season. The competition is organised into three conferences, each consisting of five teams. The Australian Conference features the four Australian franchises plus the Sunwolves, while the South African Conference has the four South African teams plus the Jaguares. The New Zealand conference is made up of five New Zealand teams.

During the regular season each side will play 16 games and receive 2 byes. The teams play home and away against each opponent in their conference for a total of 8 fixtures. The remaining 8 fixtures are against sides in the other two conferences, with each side playing four of the five teams in each of the other conferences.

The winner of each conference automatically qualifies for a top-3 seed in the quarterfinals. The remaining spots are given to the five teams with the next best records.

2019 World Cup Implications

With 2019 being a World Cup year, there is no break for June internationals. The other and more important implication is that national team players will be given scheduled rests of up to four games in total this season. This will test the squad depths of each franchise, particularly those who have a high number of national team players. It’s worth remembering that the last time Super Rugby was played in a World Cup year, the All Blacks-heavy Crusaders missed out on the playoffs while the Highlanders, who had no All Blacks in their forward pack, were the surprise competition winners. Due to the squad rotations it’s important to pay attention to the team line-ups each week.

Team-By-Team Previews

Australian Conference

Brumbies

• Futures Odds: 23 (Sportsbet) to win the title and 3.1 (BetEasy) to win the Australian conference
• Rugby Vision Title Winning Probability: 3.7% (equates to fair odds of 27.03)
• Rugby Vision Conference Winning Probability: 31% (equates to fair odds of 3.23)
• Rugby Vision Wooden Spoon Probability: 1.1% (equates to fair odds of 90.91)
• 2017 Season: Finished 4th (9th highest points tally) overall (1st in the Australian conference) with a 6-0-9 regular season record. Lost at home in the quarter-finals to the Hurricanes.
• 2018 Season: Finished 10th overall (3rd in the Australian conference) with a 7-0-9 regular season record.
• 2018 Stats: 12th ranked offence in terms of points scored, with 56 tries. In terms of points conceded the Brumbies had the 4th best defence in the competition.
• Head Coach: Dan McKellar
• Captain(s): Christian Lealiifano
• Key Departures: Ben Alexander (retired), Mees Erasmus (Rebels), Robbie Abel (Rebels), Richie Arnold (Yamaha Júbilo), Lolo Fakaosilea (Kintetsu Liners), Isi Naisarani (Rebels), Kyle Godwin (Connacht), Andrew Smith (retired)
• Key Arrivals: James Slipper (Reds), Murray Douglas (Hurricanes), Pete Samu (Crusaders), Irae Simone (Waratahs), Toni Pulu (Chiefs)
• Squad: Sam Carter (c), Christian Lealiifano (c), Allan Alaalatoa, Andy Muirhead, Bayley Kuenzel, Ben Hyne, Blake Enever, Chance Peni, Connal McInerney, Darcy Swain, David Pocock, Folau Fainga’a, Henry Speight, Irae Simone, James Slipper, Joe Powell, Jordan Jackson-Hope, Joshua Mann-Rea, Lachlan McCaffrey, Lausii Taliauli, Len Ikitau, Leslie Leulua’iali’i-Makin, Mack Hansen, Matt Lucas, Murray Douglas, Noah Lolesio, Pete Samu, Rob Valetini, Rory Arnold, Ryan Lonergan, Scott Sio, Tevita Kuridrani, Tom Banks, Tom Cusack, Tom Ross, Tom Wright, Toni Pulu, Vunipola Fifita, Wharenui Hawera
• Pre-season Results: Brumbies 34-28 Waratahs
• Pundit Predictions 10th¹
• Pundit Conference Predictions 3rd¹, 2nd², 3rd³
• Causes for Optimism: After a horror start they won 4 of their last 5 games last season. Signed Pete Samu from the Crusaders. The signing of James Slipper from the Reds will help ease the pain from enforced resting of their Wallabies props. Had the 4th best defensive record in the competition last season.
• Causes for Concern: Well-regarded defence coach Peter Ryan has left the club. Have lost a fair bit of experience during the off-season. Isi Naisarani’s departure to the Rebels is a blow. Both Christian Lealiifano and Wharenui Hawera were poor with the boot last season. Questionable whether the Brumbies have sufficient coverage for their Wallabies who will be rested at times during the season.
• Summary: The Brumbies’ 2018 season was derailed by a mid-season slump that saw them lose five consecutive games. They finished off the season with a 4-1 run which included an away win over the Waratahs in the final round, but it was too little too late as they finished 2 points adrift of a playoff spot. The Brumbies have dominated the Australian conference in recent years. Time will tell whether last season was an aberration or whether they have fallen back into the pack.

 

Rebels

• Futures Odds: 41 (Sportsbet) to win the title and 3.75 (Sportsbet) to win the Australian conference
• Rugby Vision Title Winning Probability: 0.7% (equates to fair odds of 142.86)
• Rugby Vision Conference Winning Probability: 8% (equates to fair odds of 12.5)
• Rugby Vision Wooden Spoon Probability: 7.7% (equates to fair odds of 12.99)
• 2017 Season: Finished 18th overall (5th in the Australian conference) with a 1-1-13 regular season record.
• 2018 Season: Finished 9th overall (2nd in the Australian conference) with a 7-0-9 regular season record.
• 2018 Stats: 7th ranked offence in terms of points scored, with 57 tries. In terms of points conceded the Rebels had the 11th best defence in the competition.
• Head Coach: David Wessels
• Captain(s): Dane Haylett-Petty
• Key Departures: Geoff Parling (retired), Colby Fainga’a (Connacht), Lopeti Timani (La Rochelle), Amanaki Mafi (NTT Communications Shining Arcs), Jack Debreczeni (Chiefs), David Horwitz (Connacht), Sefa Naivalu (Reds)
• Key Arrivals: Mees Erasmus (Brumbies), Robbie Abel (Brumbies), Hugh Roach (Waratahs), Luke Jones (Bordeaux), Brad Wilkin (Waratahs), Isi Naisarani (Brumbies), Quade Cooper (Reds), Matt Toomua (Leicester Tigers), Campbell Magnay (Suntory Sungoliath)
• Squad: Adam Coleman (c), Anaru Rangi, Angus Cottrell, Ben Daley, Billy Meakes, Brad Wilkin, Campbell Magnay, Dane Haylett-Petty, Fereti Saaga, Harrison Goddard, Hugh Roach, Isi Naisarani, Jack Maddocks, Jermaine Ainsley, Jordan Uelese, Luke Jones, Marika Koroibete, Matt Philip, Matt To’omua, Mees Erasmus, Michael Ruru, Pone Faamausili, Quade Cooper, Reece Hodge, Richard Hardwick, Rob Leota, Ross Haylett-Petty, Sam Jeffries, Sam Talakai, Semisi Tupou, Sione Tuipulotu, Tetera Faulkner, Tom English, Will Genia
• Injuries & Suspensions: Reece Hodge is an outside chance of being fit in time for the start of the season as the recovers from an ankle injury.
• Pre-season Results: Rebels 29-26 Reds
• Pundit Predictions 6th¹
• Pundit Conference Predictions 1st¹, 1st², 2nd³
• Causes for Optimism: Bolstered by the influx of Western Force players last season, the Rebels were the most improved side in the competition, winning 7 games in 2018 compared to 1 game in 2017. Have made numerous off-season signings of players with Super Rugby experience, including Isi Naisarani from the Brumbies and Quade Cooper from the Reds. Boast a strong back line.
• Causes for Concern: Amanaki Mafi has departed, which is a blow to their offence. It might take time for the new-look squad to gel. The squad looks light of quality and depth in the props. Matt Toomua won’t link up with the team until midway through the season.
• Summary: For the second season running there has been plenty of player turnover during the off-season so it but it might take a while for the squad to settle and establish combinations. It might also take the Rebels a while to determine what their best starting XV is. It will be interesting to see if Quade Cooper can establish himself as the first choice No. 10 and link up again with Will Genia.

 

Reds

• Futures Odds: 81 (BetEasy) to win the title and 13 (BetEasy) to win the Australian conference
• Rugby Vision Title Winning Probability: 0.5% (equates to fair odds of 200)
• Rugby Vision Conference Winning Probability: 7% (equates to fair odds of 14.29)
• Rugby Vision Wooden Spoon Probability: 9.3% (equates to fair odds of 10.75)
• 2017 Season: Finished 14th overall (3rd in the Australian conference) with a 4-0-11 regular season record.
• 2018 Season: Finished 13th overall (4th in the Australian conference) with a 6-0-10 regular season record.
• 2018 Stats: 14th ranked offence in terms of points scored, with 49 tries. In terms of points conceded the Reds had the 12th best defence in the competition.
• Head Coach: Brad Thorn
• Captain(s): Samu Kerevi
• Key Departures: Sef Fa’agase (Highlanders), James Slipper (Brumbies), Kane Douglas (Bordeaux), George Smith (Bristol Bears), Quade Cooper (Rebels), Jono Lance (Worcester Warriors), Ben Lucas (Grenoble), Eto Nabuli (Bordeaux), Karmichael Hunt (Waratahs)
• Key Arrivals: Matt McGahan (Yamaha Júbilo), Sefa Naivalu (Rebels), Bryce Hegarty (Waratahs)
• Squad: Samu Kerevi (c), Harry Hoopert, Gavin Luka, JP Smith, Ruan Smith, Taniela Tupou, Efi Maafu, Alex Mafi, Brandon Paenga-Amosa, Angus Blyth, Harry Hockings, Izack Rodda, Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, Adam Korczyk, Fraser McReight, Angus Scott-Young, Caleb Timu, Harry Wilson, Liam Wright, Scott Higginbotham, Tate McDermott, Moses Sorovi, James Tuttle, Matt McGahan, Hamish Stewart, Teti Tela, Chris Feauai-Sautia, Duncan Paia’au, Jock Campbell, Filipo Daugunu, Will Eadie, Sefa Naivalu, Jordan Petaia, Aidan Toua, Bryce Hegarty
• Pre-season Results: Rebels 29-26 Reds, Reds 19-21 Chiefs
• Pundit Predictions 14th¹
• Pundit Conference Predictions 4th¹, 4th², 4th³
• Causes for Optimism: Have made some highly promising signings to the assistant coaches, bringing in the well-regarded defence coach Peter Ryan, the highly experienced Jim McKay (who was an assistant coach during their 2011 title winning season) as the new attack coach and Englishman Dave Alred as the new kicking coach. Alred previously coached Jonny Wilkinson as England’s kicking coach during the 2003 World Cup. The signings of Sefa Naivalu and Bryce Hegarty could provide some needed spark. Have jettisoned the distractions of Quade Cooper and Karmichael Hunt. Have some young up and coming talent in the squad.
• Causes for Concern: Have incurred a net loss of experience to an already relatively inexperienced squad during the off-season. Have an unfortunately timed bye in Round 1 which is followed up by three tough fixtures, which could put the side on the back foot early. Were painfully inconsistent last season, beating the Jaguares away from home but also losing 63-28 to the Sunwolves. Were poor travellers, only winning 1 away fixture last season. Three of their six wins were in Rounds 2-4. They went 3-9 after that. Had the 2nd lowest scoring offence last season. Not everyone is convinced by Brad Thorn’s coaching credentials. Have a lopsided squad, with stronger forwards than backs.
• Summary: A realistic goal for the Reds should be to finish 3rd in the Australian conference. They have a young squad that will probably peak in a few years from now. They have brought in three excellent assistant coaches, which should hold them in good stead for upcoming seasons.

 

Sunwolves

• Futures Odds: 1001 (BetEasy) to win the title and 81 (BetEasy) to win the Australian conference
• Rugby Vision Title Winning Probability: <0.1% (equates to fair odds of >1000.00)
• Rugby Vision Conference Winning Probability: 0.6% (equates to fair odds of 166.67)
• Rugby Vision Wooden Spoon Probability: 51.5% (equates to fair odds of 1.94)
• 2017 Season: Finished 17th overall (4th in the Australian conference) with a 2-0-13 regular season record.
• 2018 Season: Finished 15th overall (5th in the Australian conference) with a 3-0-13 regular season record.
• 2018 Stats: 11th ranked offence in terms of points scored, with 48 tries. In terms of points conceded the Sunwolves had the 15th best defence in the competition.
• Head Coach: Tony Brown with Jamie Joseph named the director of rugby.
• Captain(s): Michael Little and Craig Millar
• Key Departures: Willie Britz (NTT Communications Shining Arcs), Sione Teaupa (Kubota Spears)
• Key Arrivals: Pauliasi Manu (Blues), Sam Prattley (Chiefs), Dan Pryor (Highlanders), Kara Pryor (Blues), Jamie Booth (Hurricanes), Rene Ranger (Northland)
• Squad: Yutaka Nagare (c), Keita Inagaki, Asaeli Ai Valu, Jiwon Koo, Craig Millar, Sam Prattley, Pauliasi Manu, Hencs van Wyk, Hiroshi Yamashita, Atsushi Sakate, Jaba Bregvadse, Yusuke Niwai, Shota Horie, Wimpie van der Walt, Kara Pryor, Grant Hattingh, James Moore, Tom Rowe, Kazuki Himeno, Mark Abbott, Ed Quirk, Dan Pryor, Hendrik Tui, Michael Leitch, Rahboni Warren Vosayaco, Pieter Labuschagne, Keisuke Uchida, Jamie Booth, Kaito Shigeno, Fumiaki Tanaka, Yutaka Nagare, Hayden Parker, Rikiya Matsuda, Phil Burleigh, Ryoto Nakamura, Michael Little, Rene Ranger, Kenki Fukuouka, Lomano Lava Lemeki, Gerhard van den Heever, Jason Emery, Jamie Henry
• Injuries & Suspensions: Announced the signing of Sean McMahon on a one-year deal, but he has been ruled out for the season due to injury, so the contract has been cancelled.
• Pre-season Results:
• Pundit Predictions 15th¹
• Pundit Conference Predictions 5th¹, 5th², 5th³
• Causes for Optimism: Have signed eight Kiwi players to bolster an already international-heavy squad. They now arguably have the most depth in club history. Picked up in the second half of last season, going 3-4 after a 0-9 start. Have retained the services of ex-Highlander Hayden Parker as their fly-half. Parker’s goal kicking percentage was over 90% last season.
• Causes for Concern: Once again have undergone a high amount of player turnover during the off-season. Have a much tougher travel schedule than any other Australian conference side. Conceded an eye-watering 99 tries last season, which was 33 more than any other team. They conceded 41.5 points per game on average. Only won one more game in 2018 compared to 2017, despite the influx of foreign players.
• Summary: With so many new players (again!), it might take the Sunwolves some time to settle in, so they may struggle early on as they have in previous seasons. They do have a quality head coach and a number of handy foreign players, however. In fact, they look more like a Barbarians team. They will be hoping to replicate the second half of last season (3-4) rather than the first half (0-9). The biggest issue they need to sort out is their diabolical defence.

 

Waratahs

• Futures Odds: 15 (Sportsbet) to win the title and 2.75 (BetEasy) to win the Australian conference
• Rugby Vision Title Winning Probability: 8.5% (equates to fair odds of 11.76)
• Rugby Vision Conference Winning Probability: 53.5% (equates to fair odds of 1.87)
• Rugby Vision Wooden Spoon Probability: 0.4% (equates to fair odds of 250)
• 2017 Season: Finished 16th overall (4th in the Australian conference) with a 4-0-11 regular season record.
• 2018 Season: Finished 3rd (5th highest points tally) overall (1st in the Australian conference) with a 9-1-6 regular season record. Lost in the semi-finals to the Lions.
• 2018 Stats: 2nd ranked offence in terms of points scored, with 74 tries. In terms of points conceded the Waratahs had the 10th best defence in the competition.
• Head Coach: Daryl Gibson
• Captain(s): Michael Hooper
• Key Departures: Hugh Roach (Rebels), Brad Wilkin (Rebels), Bryce Hegarty (Reds), Irae Simone (Brumbies), Andrew Kellaway (Northampton Saints), Taqele Naiyaravoro (Northampton Saints)
• Key Arrivals: Adam Ashley-Cooper (Kobelco Steelers), Karmichael Hunt (Reds)
• Squad: Adam Ashley-Cooper, Alex Newsome, Andrew Tuala, Angus Bell, Ben Donaldson, Bernard Foley, BJ Edwards, Cameron Clark, Chris Talakai, Cody Walker, Curtis Rona, Damien Fitzpatrick, Harry Johnson-Holmes, Hugh Sinclair, Israel Folau, Jack Dempsey, Jake Gordon, James Ramm, Jed Holloway, Jeremy Williams, John Folau, JP Sauni, Karmichael Hunt, Kurtley Beale, Lachlan Swinton, Lalakai Foketi, Le Roux Roets, Mack Mason, Michael Hooper, Michael Wells, Mitch Short, Ned Hanigan, Nick Phipps, Patrick Tafa, Rob Simmons, Rory O’Connor, Rory Suttor, Ryan McCauley, Sekope Kepu, Shambeckler Vui, Tolu Latu, Tom Robertson, Tom Staniforth, Will Harris, Will Harrison, Will Miller
• Pre-season Results: Highlanders 59-38 Waratahs, Brumbies 34-28 Waratahs
• Pundit Predictions 8th¹
• Pundit Conference Predictions 2nd¹, 3rd², 1st³
• Causes for Optimism: Improved markedly last season, finishing with 9 wins compared to 4 the year before. Went 7-1 against Australian conference opponents last year. Jack Dempsey returns after missing last season with injury, which will strengthen their back row. Won two fixtures against New Zealand opponents last season and lost two by 3 points or less. Had the 2nd most prolific offence last season.
• Causes for Concern: Defensively poor last campaign, finishing with the 10th best defensive record compared to the 2nd best offensive record. After starting with a 5-1-1, went 4-5 for the rest of the season. Dangerous Fijian winger Taqele Naiyaravoro has departed after scoring 15 tries last season. The side is packed with Wallabies, which is actually a negative during a World Cup year due to the enforced resting of national team players. With the closure of Allianz Stadium, the Waratahs will be playing at four different ‘home’ venues this season.
• Summary: The Waratahs have recruited heavily from Australian domestic ranks during the off-season so it will be interesting to see how the new players step up to Super Rugby. After a strong start last campaign they only won 4 of their last 9 fixtures. A continuation of that form will see them slip back into the pack.

 

New Zealand Conference

Blues

• Futures Odds: 31 (BetEasy) to win the title and 26 (Sportsbet) to win the New Zealand conference
• Rugby Vision Title Winning Probability: 0.4% (equates to fair odds of 250)
• Rugby Vision Conference Winning Probability: 0.4% (equates to fair odds of 250)
• Rugby Vision Wooden Spoon Probability: 13.7% (equates to fair odds of 7.3)
• 2017 Season: Finished 9th (8th highest points tally) overall (5th in the New Zealand conference) with a 7-1-7 regular season record.
• 2018 Season: Finished 14th overall (5th in the New Zealand conference) with a 4-0-12 regular season record.
• 2018 Stats: 15h ranked offence in terms of points scored, with 50 tries. In terms of points conceded the Blues had the 14th best defence in the competition.
• Head Coach: Leon MacDonald (replaces Tana Umaga who has been demoted to assistant coach)
• Captain(s): Blake Gibson and Patrick Tuipulotu
• Key Departures: Pauliasi Manu (Sunwolves), Jerome Kaino (Toulouse), Kara Pryor (Sunwolves), Bryn Gatland (Highlanders), Tumua Manu (Chiefs), George Moala (Clermont)
• Key Arrivals: Karl Tu’inukuafe (Chiefs), Ma’a Nonu (Toulon)
• Squad: Blake Gibson (c), Patrick Tuipulotu (c), Leni Apisai, Alex Hodgman, Ezekiel Lindenmuth, Sione Mafileo, Matt Moulds, James Parsons, Marcel Renata, Karl Tu’inukuafe, Ofa Tu’ungafasi, Gerard Cowley-Tuioti, Josh Goodhue, Jacob Pierce, Scott Scrafton, Jed Brown, Akira Ioane, Dalton Papalii, Tom Robinson, Hoskins Sotutu, Jimmy Tupou, Sam Nock, Augustine Pulu, Jonathan Ruru, Otere Black, Stephen Perofeta, Harry Plummer, Levi Aumua, TJ Faiane, Ma’a Nonu, Tanielu Tele’a, Sonny Bill Williams, Caleb Clarke, Michael Collins, Matt Duffie, Rieko Ioane, Melani Nanai, Jordan Trainor
• Injuries & Suspensions: Fly-half Stephen Perofeta is out for the first few weeks.
• Pre-season Results: Blues 43-10 Chiefs, Blues 38-31 Hurricanes
• Pundit Predictions 13th¹
• Pundit Conference Predictions 5th¹, 5th², 5th³
• Causes for Optimism: Dominated the Chiefs in a pre-season game and followed it up by beating the Hurricanes. Ma’a Nonu returns to the side which is a boost given Sonny Bill Williams’ run with injuries. Karl Tu’inukuafe is a great signing that will bolster their forward pack. Auckland won the 2018 Mitre 10 Cup. The coaching pair of Leon MacDonald and Tana Umaga have previously coached the New Zealand Under-20s side together. The franchise has also signed former Chiefs assistant coach Tom Coventry as the forwards coach. Fly-half Otere Black is back to full fitness after missing last season with a knee injury.
• Causes for Concern: Regressed badly last season, going from 7-1-7 in 2017 to 4-12 in 2018. They make a habit of shooting themselves in the foot. Have lost a lot of experience with the departure of Jerome Kaino. Lack a world-class fly-half.
• Summary: It will be interesting to see how the Blues go under new coach Leon MacDonald following the disappointing tenures of Tana Umaga and John Kirwan. The consensus has always been that they’ve been less than the sum of their parts, so perhaps MacDonald can instil some winning Crusaders culture into the side. The Blues arguably have the squad talent to make their first finals appearance since 2011, but they’re in an awfully tough conference.

 

Chiefs

• Futures Odds: 8.5 (Sportsbet) to win the title and 8 (Sportsbet) to win the New Zealand conference
• Rugby Vision Title Winning Probability: 10.6% (equates to fair odds of 9.43)
• Rugby Vision Conference Winning Probability: 14.2% (equates to fair odds of 7.04)
• Rugby Vision Wooden Spoon Probability: 0.2% (equates to fair odds of 500)
• 2017 Season: Finished 6th (4th highest points tally) overall (3rd in the New Zealand conference) with a 12-1-2 regular season record. Lost in the semi-finals to the Crusaders.
• 2018 Season: Finished 5th (3rd highest points tally) overall (3rd in the New Zealand conference) with a 11-0-5 regular season record. Lost in the quarter-finals to the Hurricanes.
• 2018 Stats: 4th ranked offence in terms of points scored, with 60 tries. In terms of points conceded the Chiefs had the 3rd best defence in the competition.
• Head Coach: Colin Cooper
• Captain(s): Sam Cane and Brodie Retallick
• Key Departures: Sam Prattley (Sunwolves), Karl Tu’inukuafe (Blues), Dominic Bird (Racing 92), Liam Messam (Toulon), Johnny Fa’auli (Toshiba Brave Lupus), Charlie Ngatai (Lyon), Tim Nanai-Williams (Clermont), Toni Pulu (Brumibes)
• Key Arrivals: Jack Debreczeni (Rebels), Stephen Donald (NEC Green Rockets), Etene Nanai-Seturo (Counties Manukau, NZ Sevens)
• Squad: Aidan Ross, Alex Nankivell, Angus Ta’avao, Anton Lienert-Brown, Ataata Moeakiola, Atunaisa Moli, Baylin Sullivan, Brad Weber, Brodie Retallick, Damian McKenzie, Etene Nanai-Seturo, Fin Hoeata, Jack Debreczeni, Jonathan Taumateiene, Kane Hames, Lachlan Boshier, Laghlan McWhannell, Liam Polwart, Luke Jacobson, Marty McKenzie, Michael Allardice, Mitchell Brown, Mitchell Karpik, Nathan Harris, Nepo Laulala, Pita Gus Sowakula, Reuben O’Neill, Sam Cane, Samisoni Taukei’aho, Sean Wainui, Sefo Kautai, Shaun Stevenson, Solomon Alaimalo, Taleni Seu, Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi, Tiaan Falcon, Tumua Manu, Tyler Ardron
• Injuries & Suspensions: Sam Cane is likely to miss the entire season with a neck injury. Tiaan Falcon is out for the season with a ruptured Achilles tendon. Damian McKenzie will miss Round 1 due to an ankle complaint.
• Pre-season Results: Blues 43-10 Chiefs, Reds 19-21 Chiefs
• Pundit Predictions 5th¹
• Pundit Conference Predictions 4th¹, 3rd², 4th³
• Causes for Optimism: Made the playoffs last season despite having a terrible run with injuries, particularly in the front row. Atunasia Moli and Mitch Brown return after missing most of last season with injury. Kane Hames is also close to returning after missing all of last season. Fly-half Damian McKenzie was the Super Rugby player of the year last year. They boasted the 3rd best defensive stats in 2018. Have signed promising fullback Etene Nanai-Seturo.
• Causes for Concern: Captain Sam Cane is likely to miss the entire season with a neck injury. Hooker Karl Tu’inukuafe has departed for the Blues. Were dominated by the Blues in a pre-season game. Have incurred a large net loss of experience during the off-season, including Liam Messam, Tim Nanai-Williams and Charlie Ngatai. After starting last season with 5 wins from 6, the Chiefs went 6-4 to finish the regular season.
• Summary: On paper you would have to say the Chiefs squad is weaker this season. Had this not been a World Cup year I would have expected the Chiefs to regress given the departures of so many players, but the enforced resting of All Blacks players will throw a spanner in the works. As always, much will come down from the quality of the incoming players from domestic ranks.

 

Crusaders

• Futures Odds: 4 (BetEasy) to win the title and 2.25 (BetEasy) to win the New Zealand conference
• Rugby Vision Title Winning Probability: 41.6% (equates to fair odds of 2.4)
• Rugby Vision Conference Winning Probability: 70% (equates to fair odds of 1.43)
• Rugby Vision Wooden Spoon Probability: <0.1% (equates to fair odds of >1000.00)
• 2017 Season: Finished 2nd overall (1st in the New Zealand conference) with a 14-0-1 regular season record. Super Rugby Champions.
• 2018 Season: Finished 1st overall (1st in the New Zealand conference) with a 14-0-2 regular season record. Super Rugby Champions.
• 2018 Stats: 1st ranked offence in terms of points scored, with 77 tries. In terms of points conceded the Crusaders had the 1st best defence in the competition.
• Head Coach: Scott Robertson
• Captain(s): Sam Whitelock
• Key Departures: Pete Samu (Brumbies), Wyatt Crockett (Tasman), Seta Tamanivalu (Bordeaux)
• Key Arrivals: Whetu Douglas (Benetton), Leicester Fainga’anuku (Tasman)
• Squad: Mike Alaalatoa, Harry Allan, Owen Franks, Oliver Jager, Joe Moody, Tim Perry, Ben Funnell, Andrew Makalio, Codie Taylor, Scott Barrett, Luke Romano, Quinten Strange, Sam Whitelock, Ethan Blackadder, Mitchell Dunshea, Billy Harmon, Tom Sanders, Jordan Taufua, Matt Todd, Whetu Douglas, Kieran Read, Mitchell Drummond, Ere Enari, Bryn Hall, Brett Cameron, Mitch Hunt, Richie Mo’unga, Tim Bateman, Ryan Crotty, Jack Goodhue, George Bridge, Braydon Ennor, Leicester Faingaanuku, Will Jordan, Manasa Mataele, Ngane Punivai, Israel Dagg, David Havili
• Injuries & Suspensions: Sam Whitelock, Kieran Read and Codie Taylor will be out for the first four rounds or so.
• Pre-season Results: Crusaders 34-19 Hurricanes, Crusaders 43-38 Highlanders
• Pundit Predictions 1st¹
• Pundit Conference Predictions 1st¹, 1st², 1st³
• Causes for Optimism: Signed promising Tasman outside back Leicester Faingaanuku. Highly rated young Tasman winger Will Jordan will also likely feature this season. Have good continuity, with few changes to the squad from last year. Boast the best forward pack in New Zealand. Remarkably consistent, finishing 14-2 last season after finishing 14-1 the year before. Were equally strong on offence and defence last season, topping the competition stats in both departments. Including playoff games, the Crusaders bring a 15-game winning streak into this season. They also boast a 22-0 playoff record when at home. Have retained the services of coach Scott Robertson, who has led the Crusaders to two titles in his first two years at the helm. Fly-half Richie Mo’unga was excellent last season, putting himself into the conversation for the All Blacks No.10 jersey.
• Causes for Concern: Only 3 of the previous 12 winners have gone on to win successive titles. Will be missing All Blacks Sam Whitelock and Kieran Read for the first four rounds and possibly Codie Taylor as well. Seta Tamanivalu’s departure is a blow. Will be hit hard by the World Cup year, which will force them to rest All Blacks during the season. The last World Cup year the Crusaders failed to even make the playoffs as they finished 4th in the New Zealand conference..
• Summary: The Crusaders will once again be the team to beat. They will be aiming for their 10th Super Rugby title while no other franchise has won more than three times.

 

Highlanders

• Futures Odds: 8 (BetEasy) to win the title and 8 (BetEasy) to win the New Zealand conference
• Rugby Vision Title Winning Probability: 3.2% (equates to fair odds of 31.25)
• Rugby Vision Conference Winning Probability: 3.9% (equates to fair odds of 25.64)
• Rugby Vision Wooden Spoon Probability: 1.8% (equates to fair odds of 55.56)
• 2017 Season: Finished 7th (5th highest points tally) overall (4th in the New Zealand conference) with a 11-0-4 regular season record. Lost in the quarter-finals to the Crusaders.
• 2018 Season: Finished 6th overall (4th in the New Zealand conference) with a 10-0-6 regular season record. Lost in the quarter-finals to the Waratahs.
• 2018 Stats: 8th ranked offence in terms of points scored, with 59 tries. In terms of points conceded the Highlanders had the 8th best defence in the competition.
• Head Coach: Aaron Mauger
• Captain(s): Ben Smith and Luke Whitelock
• Key Departures: Guy Millar (Biarritz), Dan Pryor (Sunwolves), Fletcher Smith (Hurricanes), Lima Sopoaga (Wasps)
• Key Arrivals: Sef Fa’agase (Reds), Marty Banks (NTT Docomo Red Hurricanes), Bryn Gatland (Blues)
• Squad: Ash Dixon (c), Ben Smith (c), Liam Coltman, Ray Niuia, Daniel Lienert-Brown, Josh Iosefa-Scott, Ayden Johnstone, Siate Tokolahi, Tyrel Lomax, Sef Fa’agase, Tom Franklin, Jackson Hemopo, Pari Pari Parkinson, Josh Dickson, Jack Whetton, Luke Whitelock, Liam Squire, James Lentjes, Dillon Hunt, Marino Mikaele Tu’u, Shannon Frizell, Elliot Dixon, Aaron Smith, Kayne Hammington, Folau Fakatava, Bryn Gatland, Josh Ioane, Marty Banks, Rob Thompson, Patelesio Tomkinson, Teihorangi Walden, Richard Buckman, Matt Faddes, Thomas Umaga-Jensen, Waisake Naholo, Tevita Li, Tevita Nabura, Josh McKay
• Injuries & Suspensions: Winger Tevita Nabura will miss the entire season due to a knee injury.
• Pre-season Results: Highlanders 59-38 Waratahs, Crusaders 43-38 Highlanders
• Pundit Predictions 3rd¹
• Pundit Conference Predictions 4th¹, 4th², 3rd³
• Causes for Optimism: Have made the finals in the last five straight seasons. Have bolstered their forward stocks with five new signings, including Sef Fa’agase from the Reds. Crowd favourite Marty Banks has returned to the side after a stint overseas. Won the Super Rugby title in the last World Cup year, during which the more All Black-heavy squads were more heavily impacted by the enforced resting of national team players.
• Causes for Concern: The departure of fly-half Lima Sopoaga will hurt. It might take them time to figure out who their best No. 10 is. Their lineouts were dreadful last season and they were tactically poor too often. Have lost promising winger Tevita Nabura for the season with an ACL tear.
• Summary: If the Highlanders’ new signings can make up for the departure of Lima Sopoaga then they have every chance of making the playoffs. Having their new fly-half link up with one of the world’s best halfbacks in Aaron Smith helps. The Chiefs look weaker on paper this season so 3rd place in the New Zealand conference isn’t out of the question.

 

Hurricanes

• Futures Odds: 4.8 (Palmerbet) to win the title and 3.25 (Sportsbet) to win the New Zealand conference
• Rugby Vision Title Winning Probability: 9.8% (equates to fair odds of 10.2)
• Rugby Vision Conference Winning Probability: 11.5% (equates to fair odds of 8.7)
• Rugby Vision Wooden Spoon Probability: 0.4% (equates to fair odds of 250)
• 2017 Season: Finished 5th (3rd highest points tally) overall (2nd in the New Zealand conference) with a 12-0-3 regular season record. Lost in the semi-finals to the Lions.
• 2018 Season: Finished 4th (2nd highest points tally) overall (2nd in the New Zealand conference) with a 11-0-5 regular season record. Lost in the semi-finals to the Crusaders.
• 2018 Stats: 5th ranked offence in terms of points scored, with 66 tries. In terms of points conceded the Hurricanes had the 2nd best defence in the competition.
• Head Coach: John Plumtree (replaces Chris Boyd)
• Captain(s): Dane Coles
• Key Departures: Murray Douglas (Brumbies), Michael Fatialofa (Worcester Warriors), Brad Shields (Wasps), Blade Thomson (Scarlets), Jamie Booth (Sunwolves), Ihaia West (La Rochelle), Julian Savea (Toulon)
• Key Arrivals: Fletcher Smith (Highlanders), James Marshall (London Irish)
• Squad: Fraser Armstrong, Chris Eves, Alex Fidow, Ben May, Toby Smith, Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, Asafo Aumua, Dane Coles, Ricky Riccitelli, James Blackwell, Geoff Cridge, Sam Lousi, Liam Mitchell, Isaia Walker-Leawere, Heiden Bedwell-Curtis, Vaea Fifita, Sam Henwood, Du’Plessis Kirifi, Reed Prinsep, Ardie Savea, Gareth Evans, Finlay Christie, Richard Judd, TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett, Jackson Garden-Bachop, Fletcher Smith, Vince Aso, Wes Goosen, Ngani Laumape, Billy Proctor, Matt Proctor, Ben Lam, Jonah Lowe, James Marshall, Salesi Rayasi, Jordie Barrett, Nehe Milner-Skudder
• Injuries & Suspensions: Lock Sam Lousi is out for an indefinite period (medium to long term) with a chest injury. Beauden Barrett will miss the Round 1 fixture against Waratahs due to his honeymoon.
• Pre-season Results: Crusaders 34-19 Hurricanes, Blues 38-31 Hurricanes
• Pundit Predictions 2nd¹
• Pundit Conference Predictions 2nd¹, 2nd², 2nd³
• Causes for Optimism: All Blacks hooker and Hurricanes captain Dane Coles returns after missing last season with a knee injury. New head coach John Plumtree is vastly experienced and the transition should be smooth given he was the Hurricanes’ forwards coach since 2015. Plumtree is a former head coach of the Sharks in the Currie Cup. Twelve players in the squad were part of the All Blacks 2018 campaign. Boast a high quality backline.
• Causes for Concern: Have incurred a net loss of experience during the off-season, including the departure of loose forward Brad Shields. Squad appears to lack depth in the locks and loose forward positions.
• Summary: The Hurricanes begin a new era following the departure of head coach Chris Boyd, who led the side to their first ever Super Rugby title in 2016. The disruptions caused by the World Cup might help their chances of wrestling the NZ conference away from the Crusaders.

 

South African Conference

Bulls

• Futures Odds: 67 (BetEasy) to win the title and 7.5 (BetEasy) to win the South African conference
• Rugby Vision Title Winning Probability: 0.7% (equates to fair odds of 142.86)
• Rugby Vision Conference Winning Probability: 4.9% (equates to fair odds of 20.41)
• Rugby Vision Wooden Spoon Probability: 8.1% (equates to fair odds of 12.35)
• 2017 Season: Finished 15th overall (3rd in the Africa 1 conference) with a 4-0-11 regular season record.
• 2018 Season: Finished 12th overall (5th in the Africa 1 conference) with a 6-0-10 regular season record.
• 2018 Stats: 6th ranked offence in terms of points scored, with 59 tries. In terms of points conceded the Bulls had the 13th best defence in the competition.
• Head Coach: Pote Human (replaces John Mitchell)
• Captain(s): Lood de Jager
• Key Departures: Pierre Schoeman (Edinburgh), Adriaan Strauss (retired), Ruben van Heerden (Sharks), Francois Brummer (Zebre)
• Key Arrivals: Schalk Brits (Saracens), Duane Vermeulen (Kubota Spears), Cornal Hendricks (unattached), Stedman Gans (South Africa Sevens), Dylan Sage (South Africa Sevens), Rosko Specman (South Africa Sevens)
• Squad: Matthys Basson, Lizo Gqoboka, Madot Mabokela, Simphiwe Matanzima, Nqoba Mxoli, Trevor Nyakane, Dayan van der Westhuizen, Conraad van Vuuren, Frans van Wyk, Schalk Brits, Johan Grobbelaar, Edgar Marutlulle, Jaco Visagie, Lood de Jager, Jason Jenkins, RG Snyman, Hendre Stassen, Tim Agaba, Thembelani Bholi, Nick de Jager, Carel du Preez, Jannes Kirsten, Paul Schoeman, Roelof Smit, Ruan Steenkamp, Muller Uys, Marco van Staden, Hanro Liebenberg, Jano Venter, Duane Vermeulen, Theo Maree, Embrose Papier, Ivan van Zyl, Andre Warner, Marnitz Boshoff, Manie Libbok, Handre Pollard, Stedman Gans, JT Jackson, Johnny Kotze, Jesse Kriel, Franco Naude, Burger Odendaal, Dylan Sage, Cornal Hendricks, Travis Ismaiel, Duncan Matthews, Rosko Specman, Jade Stighling, Warrick Gelant, Divan Rossouw
• Injuries & Suspensions: Lock RG Snyman is out for two months with an ankle injury.
• Pre-season Results: Stormers 33-28 Bulls, Sharks 7-7 Bulls
• Pundit Predictions 11th¹
• Pundit Conference Predictions 4th¹, 5th², 4th³
• Causes for Optimism: Improved in 2018 compared to 2017, finishing 12th compared to 15th. Most of the improvement was in offence, with the side finishing with the 6th most points scored in 2018, compared to the 13th most in 2017. Have made some good signings in the off-season to improve the experience within the squad, including Duane Vermeulen and Schalk Britz. Have also signed a trio of speedsters from the South Africa sevens side. Lood de Jager is back to full fitness after missing the end of last season with injury.
• Causes for Concern: Incoming coach Pote Human doesn’t have the same pedigree as departing coach John Mitchell. The Bulls will be starting with their third manager in as many seasons. The side was dreadful on the road last season, winning just one game. Finished last season on a 2-6 run. Hooker Adriaan Strauss has retired.
• Summary: The Bulls are the only South African side to win a Super Rugby title – a feat they’ve achieved three times. Since their last win in 2010 they’ve been in decline, however, with the side going south particularly from 2014 onwards, finishing 9th or lower every season. A realistic target for the Bulls should be to finish 3rd in the conference. Much will come down to how they develop under new head coach Pote Human.

 

Jaguares

• Futures Odds: 41 (BetEasy) to win the title and 13 (BetEasy) to win the South African conference
• Rugby Vision Title Winning Probability: 3.1% (equates to fair odds of 32.26)
• Rugby Vision Conference Winning Probability: 17% (equates to fair odds of 5.88)
• Rugby Vision Wooden Spoon Probability: 1.6% (equates to fair odds of 62.5)
• 2017 Season: Finished 10th overall (3rd in the Africa 2 conference) with a 7-0-8 regular season record.
• 2018 Season: Finished 7th overall (2nd in the Africa 2 conference) with a 9-0-7 regular season record. Lost in the quarter-finals to the Lions.
• 2018 Stats: 10th ranked offence in terms of points scored, with 51 tries. In terms of points conceded the Jaguares had the 6th best defence in the competition.
• Head Coach: Gonzalo Quesada (replaces Mario Ledesma)
• Captain(s): Jerónimo de la Fuente
• Key Departures: Juan Martín Hernández (retired), Nicolás Sánchez (Stade Français)
• Key Arrivals: Ignacio Mendy (Argentina Sevens)
• Squad: Agustin Creevy, Bautista Ezcurra, Bautista Delguy, Diego Fortuny, Domingo Miotti, Emiliano Boffelli, Enrique Pieretto, Franco Molina, Gaspar Baldunciel, Guido Petti Pagadizabal, Gonzalo Bertranou, Ignacio Mendy, Javier Diaz, Javier Ortega Desio, Jeronimo de la Fuente, Joaquin Diaz Bonilla, Joaquin Tuculet, Juan Cruz Mallia, Juan Pablo Zeiss, Juan Manuel Leguizamon, Julian Montoya, Lucas Paulos, Lucio Sordoni, Marcos Kremer, Martin Landajo, Matias Alemanno, Matias Moroni, Matias Orlando, Mayco Vivas, Nahual Tetaz Chaparro, Pablo Matera, Ramiro Moyano, Rodrigo Bruni, Santiago Carreras, Santiago Chocobares, Santiago Garcia Botta, Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias, Santiago Grondona, Santiago Medrano, Sebastian Cancelliere, Tomas Cubelli, Tomas Lavanini, Tomas Lezana
• Pre-season Results:
• Pundit Predictions 9th¹
• Pundit Conference Predictions 3rd¹, 4th², 1st³
• Causes for Optimism: Made the playoffs for the first time last season. Only bonus points separated them from the 1st placed Lions in the South African conference. Finished the regular season on a 7-2 run. Had relatively little turnover during the off-season and have retained a strong forward pack. Could benefit from the enforced resting of contracted All Blacks, Wallabies and Springboks players in other squads this World Cup year.
• Causes for Concern: There are serious questions over whether they can make up for the departure of fly-half Nicolas Sanchez, given Juan Martin Hernandez has retired. No other fly-half had significant time on the field last season, with Joaquín Díaz Bonilla only making one appearance. Head coach Mario Ledesma has departed. They had their best ever season under his sole season in charge. Incoming coach Gonzalo Quesada has no coaching experience outside of France.
• Summary: The Jaguares finally looked to be living up to their potential last season. They will be hoping that new coach Gonzalo Quesada can pick up where Mario Ledesma left off. Once again the primary challenge for the Jaguares is to overcome their horrific travel schedule. The other major concern is their poor succession management at the fly-half position. Nicolás Sánchez has departed and no returning player received significant minutes last season. Much of their season will come down to the performance of their new fly-half.

 

Lions

• Futures Odds: 10 (BetEasy) to win the title and 1.7 (BetEasy) to win the South African conference
• Rugby Vision Title Winning Probability: 11.6% (equates to fair odds of 8.62)
• Rugby Vision Conference Winning Probability: 47.5% (equates to fair odds of 2.11)
• Rugby Vision Wooden Spoon Probability: 0.2% (equates to fair odds of 500)
• 2017 Season: Finished 1st overall (1st in the Africa 2 conference) with a 14-0-1 regular season record. Lost at home in the final to the Crusaders.
• 2018 Season: Finished 2nd (4th highest points tally) overall (1st in the Africa 2 conference) with a 9-0-7 regular season record. Lost in the final to the Crusaders.
• 2018 Stats: 3rd ranked offence in terms of points scored, with 77 tries. In terms of points conceded the Lions had the 7th best defence in the competition.
• Head Coach: Swys de Bruin
• Captain(s): Warren Whiteley
• Key Departures: Ruan Dreyer (Gloucester), Corné Fourie (Stormers), Jacques van Rooyen (Bath), Franco Mostert (Gloucester), Jaco Kriel (Gloucester), Rohan Janse van Rensburg (Sale Sharks)
• Key Arrivals: Danie Mienie (Toulouse), Carlü Sadie (Stormers), Stephan Lewies (Sharks)
• Squad: Jacobie Adriaanse, Johannes Jonker, Danie Mienie, Sti Sithole, Dylan Smith, Malcolm Marx, Lourens Erasmus, Rhyno Herbst, Robert Kruger, Marvin Orie, Cyle Brink, Hacjivah Dayimani, Len Massyn, Marnus Schoeman, Kwagga Smith, Warren Whiteley, Ross Cronje, Nic Groom, Dillon Smit, Elton Jantjies, Shaun Reynolds, Lionel Mapoe, Harold Vorster, Ruan Combrinck, Aphiwe Dyantyi, Courtnall Skosan, Madosh Tambwe, Andries Coetzee, Sylvian Mahuza
• Injuries & Suspensions: Kwagga Smith and Stephan Lewies are out with short-term injuries, while Cyle Brink, Robbie Coetzee, Johannes Jonker and Ross Cronje are out with longer-term injuries.
• Pre-season Results: Lions 19-14 Sharks
• Pundit Predictions 3rd¹
• Pundit Conference Predictions 1st¹, 2nd², 2nd³
• Causes for Optimism: Have been consistently the best team in South Africa in recent seasons, making the last three straight finals. Have lost just one of their last 23 fixtures against South African opposition. Have one of the best hookers in the world in Malcolm Marx. The Lions had the most efficient line-out last year. They scored 77 regular season tries last season, which was the joint most in the competition. Had an excellent disciplinary record last year, conceding just one yellow card.
• Causes for Concern: Have incurred a huge net loss of experience during the off-season, including Franco Mostert, who led the league in lineout wins and tackles last year, as well as Jaco Kriel. Regressed badly from 14-1 in 2017 to 9-7 in 2018 (Swys de Bruin’s first season in charge). A large part of their backward step was due to their defence, which slipped from conceding 19 points per game in 2017 to 27 points per game in 2018. Lost all five fixtures against New Zealand sides last season.
• Summary: With a number of players leaving during the off-season, including Franco Mostert, perhaps the Lions’ window of opportunity to win the league (in the short-term) has ended. They made the last three finals but the tournament format was kind to them last season, with their 9-7 record good enough to secure the 2nd overall seed despite having the 4th highest points tally. The Lions will be hard pressed to make the final this year.

 

Sharks

• Futures Odds: 61 (Sportsbet) to win the title and 14 (Sportsbet) to win the South African conference
• Rugby Vision Title Winning Probability: 3.4% (equates to fair odds of 29.41)
• Rugby Vision Conference Winning Probability: 16.6% (equates to fair odds of 6.02)
• Rugby Vision Wooden Spoon Probability: 1.6% (equates to fair odds of 62.5)
• 2017 Season: Finished 8th (7th highest points tally) overall (2nd in the Africa 2 conference) with a 9-1-5 regular season record.
• 2018 Season: Finished 8th overall (3rd in the Africa 2 conference) with a 7-1-8 regular season record. Lost in the quarter-finals to the Crusaders.
• 2018 Stats: 9th ranked offence in terms of points scored, with 49 tries. In terms of points conceded the Sharks had the 9th best defence in the competition.
• Head Coach: Robert du Preez
• Captain(s): Louis Schreuder
• Key Departures: Franco Marais (Gloucester), Stephan Lewies (Lions), Keegan Daniel (retired), Garth April (NTT Communications Shining Arcs)
• Key Arrivals: Ruben van Heerden (Bulls)
• Squad: Andre Esterhuizen, Andrew Evans, Aphelele Fassi, Armand van der Merwe, Cameron Wright, Chiliboy Ralepelle, Coenraad Oosthuizen, Courtney Winnaar, Curwin Bosch, Daniel du Preez, Dylan Richardson, Fezokuhle Mbatha, Gideon Koegelenberg, Grant Williams, Hyron Andrews, Jacobus van Wyk, Jacques Vermuelen, Jean-Luc du Preez, Jeremy Ward, JJ van der Mescht, John-Hubert Meyer, Juan Schoeman, Khuthuzani Mchunu, Kwanda Dimaza, Leolin Zas, Louis Schreuder, Lubabalo Mtembu, Luke Stringer, Lukhanyo Am, Lwazi Mvovo, Makazole Mapimpi, Marius Louw, Muller du Pelssis, Mzamo Majola, Phendulani Buthelezi, Philip van der Walt, Rhyno Smith, Robert du Preez, Ruan Botha, Ruben van Heerden, Sanele Nohamba, Sibusiso Nkosi, Tendai Mtawarira, Thomas du Toit, Tyler Paul, Wian Vosloo
• Injuries & Suspensions: Jean-Luc du Preez is out with a groin injury for up to three months. Curwin Bosch and Marius Louw will miss Round 1 due to minor injuries.
• Pre-season Results: Lions 19-14 Sharks, Sharks 7-7 Bulls
• Pundit Predictions 7th¹
• Pundit Conference Predictions 2nd¹, 1st², 5th³
• Causes for Optimism: Only lost one home game last season. Beat three Kiwi sides last campaign and their sole regular season defeat to a Kiwi side was by 1 point. The Sharks won the 2018 Currie Cup, which bodes well should they bring in new players from the region. Have a Springbok-heavy backline. Have a soft schedule to start the season, which should put them on the front foot early. Have had relatively little player turnover during the off-season, so will be fielding a settled side.
• Causes for Concern: Regressed last season, finishing 7-1-8 compared to 9-1-5 the year before. Won only 1 away fixture last campaign and they were painfully inconsistent. Hooker Franco Marais has departed. Highly rated flanker Jean-Luc du Preez is expected to be out for three months with a groin injury.
• Summary: If the Sharks can improve on their away form they will be a good chance of making the playoffs.

 

Stormers

• Futures Odds: 51 (BetEasy) to win the title and 7.5 (BetEasy) to win the South African conference
• Rugby Vision Title Winning Probability: 2.3% (equates to fair odds of 43.48)
• Rugby Vision Conference Winning Probability: 13.9% (equates to fair odds of 7.19)
• Rugby Vision Wooden Spoon Probability: 2.3% (equates to fair odds of 43.48)
• 2017 Season: Finished 3rd (6th highest points tally) overall (1st in the Africa 1 conference) with a 10-0-5 regular season record. Lost at home in the quarter-finals to the Chiefs.
• 2018 Season: Finished 11th overall (4th in the Africa 1 conference) with a 6-0-10 regular season record.
• 2018 Stats: 13th ranked offence in terms of points scored, with 46 tries. In terms of points conceded the Stormers had the 5th best defence in the competition.
• Head Coach: Robbie Fleck
• Captain(s): Siya Kolisi
• Key Departures: JC Janse van Rensburg (Grenoble), Carlü Sadie (Lions), Dean Muir (Kintetsu Liners), Jan de Klerk (Canon Eagles), Nizaam Carr (Wasps), Dewaldt Duvenage (Benetton), Raymond Rhule (Grenoble)
• Key Arrivals: Corné Fourie (Lions), Ruhan Nel (South Africa Sevens)
• Squad: Kwenzo Blose, Neethling Fouche, Steven Kitshoff, Michael Kumbirai, Wilco Louw, Frans Malherbe, Lee-Marvin Mazibuko, Alistair Vermaak, Bongi Mbonambi, Scarra Ntubeni, Chad Solomon, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Eben Etzebeth, Salmaan Moerat, JD Schickerling, Ernst van Rhyn, Chris van Zyl, Johan du Toit, Siya Kolisi, Chris Massyn, Sikhumbuzo Notshe, Cobus Wiese, Nama Xaba, Juarno Augustus, Jaco Coetzee, Kobus van Dyk, Paul de Wet, Herschel Jantjies, Justin Phillips, Jano Vermaak, Jean-Luc du Plessis, Joshua Stander, Damian Willemse, Damian de Allende, Daniel du Plessis, JJ Engelbrecht, Dan Kriel, Ruhan Nel, EW Viljoen, Dillyn Leyds, Sergeal Petersen, Duncan Saal, Seabelo Senatla, Edwill van der Merwe, Craig Barry, SP Marais
• Pre-season Results: Stormers 87-5 Boland, Stormers 33-28 Bulls
• Pundit Predictions 12th¹
• Pundit Conference Predictions 5th¹, 3rd², 3rd³
• Causes for Optimism: Welcome back world-class lock Eben Etzebeth from injury. JD Schickerling is also fit after missing most of last season with injury. Have a dozen Springboks in the squad. Went 6-2 at home last year. Have recruited heavily from the Western Province side that finished 2nd in the Currie Cup last year. Attracted almost 50,000 spectators for their pre-season clash against the Bulls, highlighting the healthy state of fan interest.
• Causes for Concern: Regressed badly last season, finishing with a 6-10 record compared to 10-5 the season before. Were particularly bad on the road, where they failed to win a single game. Finished the season on a 1-4 run. Had only the 13th best offence last season and scored fewer tries than any other side. Have a dreadful 1-8 record in the playoffs, with their sole win coming in 2010. Have an unbalanced squad, with most of their Springboks in the forwards. A lot of the blame for last season was directed at head coach Robbie Fleck, and he is still at the helm. Have lost some depth in the forward pack during the off-season. There have been some off-field distractions in pre-season related to a board power struggle within the Western Province Rugby Football Union (WPRFU).
• Summary: The Stormers are known for their reliability and consistency, but they stank in 2018, so it will be interesting to see what they deliver this season. A slow start could see Robbie Fleck’s job put in jeopardy. Much will come down to quality of the influx of young players from the Western Province Currie Cup side. Can the incomers spark the Stormers’ listless backline? They should get decent game time given the scheduled rests for the Springboks players this World Cup year. One thing for certain is the Stormers will have to improve on their 0-8 away record from last season.

 

Super Rugby Betting Resources

On Australia Sports Betting

• Weekly previews with betting tips are published every Thursday in the Super Rugby section
• Weekly Super Rugby form guides are available in the Data section
• Super Rugby bookmaker odds are available in the Odds Comparison section.
• Historical Super Rugby data, including game results and bookmaker odds are available in Excel (.xlsx) format
• Live rugby union scores, recent results and upcoming match schedules are available in the Live Scores section
• Rugby union betting promotions can be found in the bookmaker promotions section (not available to NSW visitors)
• A free Excel betting tracker spreadsheet is available to help you track your bets and measure your betting performance. OpenOffice and Google Sheets versions are also available

On Australia Sports Tipping

• The Interactive Super Rugby Form Guide enables you to filter each team’s form by home/away and strength of opponent.
• Super Rugby match centres are available for every fixture. Each match centre provides bookmaker odds, member tipping tallies, form guides and in-depth performance guides for the game.
• The Super Rugby line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.
• The Super Rugby predictability index ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.
• The Super Rugby betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market. The data can be filtered by date.
• The Super Rugby home-field advantage analysis compares each team’s winning records at home versus away. League averages and medians are also provided. The data can be filtered by date.
• The Super Rugby Elo ratings tool enables you to calculate the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

Head to Head Betting Tips

The key thing to keep in mind is the 2019 World Cup is this year, which will force many teams to rest key players during the season. The Brumbies have said they don’t plan to rotate key players for home fixtures, which is worth noting, because other teams might have the same idea. Already the Highlanders have indicated they will rest key All Blacks for their away fixture in Round 1, while the Hurricanes won’t be fielding Beauden Barrett for their Round 1 away fixture. For this reason, when betting before team sheets are announced, you might want to lean towards the home team unless you’re confident the away side has completed it’s national team player rests.

View our preview with betting tips for Round 1 of the 2019 season

Super Rugby 2019 Futures Betting Tips

Compare the latest Super Rugby odds

Conference winner

The market has possibly over-reacted to the departure of fly-half Nicolás Sánchez for the Jaguares. They had the same 9-7 record as the South African conference-winning Lions last season and the Lions have lost some key players during the off-season, most notably Franco Mostert. While they are rightly not the favourite to win the conference, I am prepared to back the Jaguares to win the South African conference at 13.00 (BetEasy. To put those odds into perspective, Palmerbet are only offering 7.00 odds for the same selection.

Given the uncertainties thrown up by the World Cup, the Sharks at 14.00 (Sportsbet) are also worth consideration to win the South African conference. To put those odds into perspective, BetEasy are only offering 6.00 odds for the same selection. The Sharks finished 3rd in the conference last season with a 7-1-8 record. They beat three Kiwi sides and looked fantastic when they were at their best. If they can find some consistency they are a genuine chance of winning the conference. The Sharks have a soft schedule to start the season so you could look to lay them with Betfair mid-season if they get off to a good start.

Title winner

With their enviable squad depth and quality, the Crusaders are the deserved favourites to complete the three-peat. Despite the uncertainties thrown up by this being a World Cup year, if I had to back one team to win the title it would be the Crusaders at 4.00 (BetEasy).

For those looking for trading opportunities, the Jaguares at 41.00 (BetEasy) and the Sharks at 61.00 (Sportsbet) look to be good value. Both have manageable fixtures to start the season so I would back them now with a view to lay them later with Betfair.

Pundit sources:

• ¹ The Roar team-by-team previews
• ² The Roar conference previews: Australia, New Zealand, South Africa
• ³ ESPN Greg Growden predictions: Australia, New Zealand, South Africa