The following is a survey of Australian racing tips for Saturday, March 30. The focus is on Rosehill, which features two Group 1 races, the Vinery Stud Stakes (Race 6) and Tancred Stakes (Race 7). Selected races at Ascot, Bendigo and Morphettville are also covered.
More tips and previews will be added as they become available.
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Best bets of the day
Rosehill Race 1, No. 1 Bellevue Hill and No. 3 La Tene
Rosehill Race 3, No. 1 Madison County
Rosehill Race 6, No. 3 Verry Elleegant
Rosehill Race 7, No. 1 Avilius
Ascot
Betfair – Feature Race Reports:
Race 8:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #11 Dark Choice; #7 Mackenzie Brooke
Bendigo
Race 2, No. 4 Transact – 4 stars
Race 7, No.7 Plein Ciel – each-way – 3.5 stars
Race 6: Back Mosh Music to win ($5.50)
Race 8, Smart Horse – VALUE BET
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
Race 1: MANDELA EFFECT
Race 2: TRANSACT
Race 3: GROOT
Race 4: MALAHAT
Race 5: TWITCHY FRANK
Race 6: VALAC
Race 7: PLEIN CIEL
Race 8: OUTRAGEOUS
Race 9: SUPER TITUS
Morphettville
Race 6, No.11 Amanikan – each-way – 3.5 stars
Race 7, No. 5 I Am Someone – 4.5 stars
Rosehill
Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:
Race 3:
BACK – In a Twinkling for 3 Units
Unibet – From the Trader’s Desk:
Race 1 #1 Bellevue Hill – LAY BET
Race 6 #3 Verry Elleegant (bet against this horse with Betfair)
Race 2 #2 Moss ‘n’ Dale – BEST BET
Race 4 #7 Princess Posh – VALUE BET
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
Race 1: BELLEVUE HILL
Race 2: HARLEM
Race 3: MADISON COUNTY
Race 4: ALIZEE
Race 5: ARDROSSAN
Race 6: 1. POHUTUKAWA 2. Verry Elleegant, 3. Scarlet Dream, 4. El Dorado Dream
Race 7: 1. AVILIUS, 2. Yogi, 3. Rondinella, 4. Muntahaa
Race 8: TOM MELBOURNE
Race 9: STAR OF THE SEAS
Race 1, Bellevue Hill – BEST BET
Race 3, Madison County – LAY BET (bet against this horse with Betfair)
Race 6, Nakeeta Jane
Race 4, No. 1 Alizee- BEST BET – 5 stars
Race 6:
Best Bet: Pohutukawa ($6.00) – 4 stars
Saver: Nakeeta Jane ($6.50)
Exotic: Trifecta 1,3,8 – 1,2,3,8 – 1,2,3,8
Race 7:
Best Bet: Avilius ($1.70) – 5 stars
Roughie: Brimham Rocks ($21/5.50)
Exotic: Trifecta 1 – 8,12 – 3,8,10,12,14
Race 1:
Back La Tene to win ($4.40)
Race 4:
1. Alizee
2. Dyslexic
3. Princess Posh
Suggested Bets: Back Dyslexic win and place. If investing 10 units have 4 units a win and 6 units a place.
Race 5:
Back Manuel to win ($13.00)
Betfair – Feature Race Reports:
Race 1:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #1 Bellevue Hill
Race 2:
Betting Confidence: Low
Back – #3 Libran
Race 3:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #4 Cossetot
Race 4:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Lay – #1 Alizee
Race 6:
Betting Confidence: High
Back – #3 Verry Elleegant
Race 7:
Betting Confidence: Low
Back – #8 Big Duke; #10 Yogi
Race 1: Bellevue Hill and La Tene
Race 3: Madison County
Race 4: Alizee
Race 5: Ardrossan
Race 6: Verry Elleegant
Race 7: Avilius
Race 8: Kaonic each-way
Race 1:
BELLEVUE HILL (1) looks the sole leader and gives the impression he will relish the step up to 1400m following a game effort in the Todman last start behind Yes Yes Yes. That is clearly the A1 form and if able to pinch a few cheap sectionals out in front, he should prove very hard to run down. LA TENE (3) took a good step forward when winning the VRC Sires’ last start and is clearly trending the right way. Expected to press forward and be in this for a long way. FORTRESS COMMAND (5) really impressed winning at Newcastle last start and while this is a big step up, he appears more than capable. STRASBOURG (2) the next in line.
Race 2:
RONDINELLA (11) brings over some strong form from NZ and appears well placed down in the weights for Kerrin McEvoy. Effort behind Melody Belle last start was very good and if able to repeat that level of performance, she should prove very hard to beat. GOATHLAND (8) has been rock solid in both starts to begin this preparation and now appears set to peak racing third up. Shinn legs back aboard (2/2) and he looms as a major threat. HARLEM (1) went back to back in the Australian Cup last start and obviously has to be respected off the back of that effort. EMPEROR’S WAY (6) the best of the rest.
Race 3:
MADISON COUNTY (1) PLATINUM INVADOR (3) COSSETOT (4) IN A TWINKLING (2)
Race 4:
ALIZEE (1), DYSLEXIC (8), NAANTALI (9), PRINCESS POSH (7)
Race 5:
ARDROSSAN (4), ESTIJAAB (6), TREKKING (8), MANUEL (1)
Race 6:
VERRY ELLEEGANT (3), NAKEETA JANE (1), EL DORADO DREAMING (2), POHUTUKAWA (8)
Race 7:
AVILIUS (1), RED CARDINAL (3), BIG DUKE (8), ACE HIGH (13)
Race 8:
KAONIC (7), MASK OF TIME (5), SEAWAY (8), INVICTUS PRINCE (9)
Race 1:
3. La Tene (5 stars)
2. Strasbourg (4 stars)
5. Fortress (2 stars)
4. Rome (2 stars)
Race 2:
1. Harlem (3 stars)
2. Moss ‘N’ Dale (3 stars)
9. Taikomochi (3 stars)
6. Emperor’s Way (3 stars)
Race 3:
1. Madison County (5 stars)
4. Cossetot (4 stars)
5. Angel Of Truth (2 stars)
2. In A Twinkling (2 stars)
Race 4:
1. Alizee (5 stars)
9. Naantali (4 stars)
3. Oregon’s Day (2 stars)
7. Princess Posh (2 stars)
Race 5:
6. Estijaab (5 stars)
5. Fiery Heights (3 stars)
3. Cellarman (3 stars)
4. Ardrossan (3 stars)
Race 6:
1. Nakeeta Jane (3 stars)
4. Aristia (3 stars)
2. El Dorado Dreaming (3 stars)
3. Verry Elleegant (3 stars)
Race 7:
1. Avilius (5 stars)
14. Rondinella (3 stars)
10. Yogi (3 stars)
3. Red Cardinal (3 stars)
Race 8:
6. Snippets Land (3 stars)
8. Seaway (3 stars)
3. Tom Melbourne (3 stars)
11. Grey Lion (3 stars)
Unibet – Race Comments and Selections:
Race 1:
BELLEVUE HILL (1) Won easily two runs back at Canberra and will appreciate the drop in class. Genuine contender and likely to be first past the post. LA TENE (3) Was fighting out the finish when winning last start at Flemington. Could take beating. STRASBOURG (2) Second up from a break. Solid win three runs back at Newcastle and dropping in class. Will be competitive. ROME (4) Second up from a spell. Came in 2nd last start at Canberra. Exotics chance.
Selections: 1 Bellevue Hill, 3 La Tene, 2 Strasbourg, 4 Rome
Race 2:
GOATHLAND (8) Having third run back from a break. Fought on well to win two runs back at Randwick. Appears well in this. MOSS ‘N’ DALE (2) Solid effort when winning three runs back at Randwick. Expect to go close. EMPEROR’S WAY (6) Charged home into 3rd last start at Randwick and proven performer at this trip in the past. Warrants a bet. ALMOST COURT (7) Races well third up winning 2 from 3 runs. Managed to run into 3rd last time at Canberra but facing a stronger class. Exotics chance.
Selections: 8 Goathland, 2 Moss ‘n’ Dale, 6 Emperor’s Way, 7 Almost Court
Race 3:
MADISON COUNTY (1) Was fighting out the finish when winning three runs back at Trentham and looks well graded here. Rates well and should be taken seriously. IN A TWINKLING (2) Good run when finishing 2nd last run at Ellerslie. Jamie Richards stable is on fire. Right in this. COSSETOT (4) Solid effort when winning three runs back at Hobart. Could go well. PLATINUM INVADOR (3) Showed promise when winning two runs back at Otaki and will be motoring home late. Tracking very well this preparation. Should go well.
Selections: 1 Madison County, 2 In A Twinkling, 4 Cossetot, 3 Platinum Invador
Race 4:
ALIZEE (1) Was fighting out the finish when winning two runs back at Caulfield and back in an easier grade. Ready to win. DYSLEXIC (8) Third up from a spell. Outgunned at the finish when 3rd last run at this venue. Looks value and a good place bet. DAYSEE DOOM (2) Proven record when second up. Finished 2.4L behind the winner at this course last run. Worth an each way bet in this. OREGON’S DAY (3) Really dug deep when winning two runs back at Flemington and having third run back from a spell. Tracking very well this preparation. Exotics chance
Selections: 1 Alizee, 8 Dyslexic, 2 Daysee Doom, 3 Oregon’s Day
Race 5:
TREKKING (8) Having second run back from a break. Crept into 4th last start here and gets the perfect barrier. Look for a bold run. ARDROSSAN (4) Left nothing to chance when winning two runs back at Ellerslie and back in an easier grade. Expect to go close. ESTIJAAB (6) Got the upper hand late when winning three runs back at this track and likely to be well placed early. Appears well in this. BRAVE SONG (7) Could build on a strong first up record. Got the upper hand late when winning two runs back at Caulfield. Hard to knock and looks a nice each way proposition.
Selections: 8 Trekking, 4 Ardrossan, 6 Estijaab, 7 Brave Song
Race 6:
VERRY ELLEEGANT (3) Far too good last start in the Phar Lap Stakes and looks set to get a soft run today. Deserved favourite. NAKEETA JANE (1) Strong form behind The Autumn Sun last start and should handle the rise in trip. Each way claims. POHUTUKAWA (8) Circled most of the field last time out and will be looking to do the same today. Can win this. EL DORADO DREAMING (2) Racing well this prep but yet to break through. Could add some value to your exotics.
Selections: 3 Verry Elleegant, 1 Nakeeta Jane, 8 Pohutukawa, 2 El Dorado Dreaming
Race 7:
AVILIUS (1) Made up for his Australian Cup failure with an impressive win here last start in the Ranvet. Looks set to win again. RED CARDINAL (3) Has won 2 from 2 this campaign and will only benefit from the step up to 2400m. Danger to the favourite. BIG DUKE (8) Improved effort last start and races well over this trip. Each way the play. RONDINELLA (14) Strong form behind Melody Belle last start in New Zealand. Keep safe.
Selections: 1 Avilius, 3 Red Cardinal, 8 Big Duke, 14 Rondinella
Race 8:
MASK OF TIME (5) Having third run back from a spell. Grabbed towards the finish when 2nd last run at the track and looks well graded here. Value bet. SEAWAY (8) Displayed potential when winning two runs back at this venue and will be positive in the run early. Very competitive this campaign. Winning chance. SIEGE OF QUEBEC (2) Having second run back from a break. Was 1.8L behind the winner at Newcastle last time. Each way appeals best here. KAONIC (7) Third up. Really dug deep when winning three runs back at Flemington and looks well graded here. Could place.
Selections: 5 Mask of Time, 8 Seaway, 2 Siege of Quebec, 7 Kaonic
Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:
Race 1:
Rosehill was still rated Heavy 8 on Wednesday morning and while Thursday can definitely be a drying day there is a tricky little forecast of rain on Friday – 70% chance of 10-20mm. If that comes to be we will be quickly back in to the Heavy range but we will have to wait and see on that. Rail out to the 6 metre position now. BELLEVUE HILL gets the front in the first and fought on well once headed by Yes Yes Yes in his lead-up. After failing to make it into the Slipper this looks like the perfect consolation. Yet to see these conditions though so can’t be totally bullish.
Selections: 1. Bellevue Hill, 2. Strasbourg, 4. Rome, 5. Fortress Command
Race 2:
9 and 7 look the two main leaders. 1 and 6 set up just in behind. Tricky race I reckon and it’s mostly doubt about the conditions that make it so. TAIKOMICHI fits the bill of a lightly raced on-pacer that has returned in good order. Stable won this race last year with Arbeitsam and this 5YO looks as though he’s ready to take the next step. His only run on Heavy though was on debut and he was very disappointing. On Sift I’m happy, on worse I get very cautious and perhaps turn to the NZ mare RONDINELLA (if she’s here instead of later).
Selections: 9. Taikomochi, 6. Emperor’s Way, 3. Libran
Race 3:
A trio of New Zealanders taken Godolphin and a bunch of gallopers that haven’t yet been to this level. 10 might lead 7 and 6 but on the face of it there is not great speed in the race. MADISON COUNTY had a setback last week but was second pick behind The Autumn Sun at the time he came out. Clearly not too distressed by that issue as he’s here a week later and comes to us through (by far) the strongest race. Will he have to get too far back from the outside gate. I hope not but with comparable sectionals to TAS from the Randwick Guineas I’ll back him in to overcome a less-than-ideal tempo anyway.
Selections: 1. Madison County, 4. Cossetot, 2. In A Twinkling, 3. Platinum Invador
Race 4:
Pace not clear-cut but I imagine we have 2 and 8 leading the way. Usually we are looking directly at Coolmore participants for the winner of this race but this year’s edition has ALIZEE coming from a different angle and her quality is just too hard to resist. While there are some very worthy mares in opposition here this is a step down for ALIZEE after her latest runs in Melbourne. Needs to cope with 59 and hopefully doesn’t find herself exposed wide without a trail in the run. Therer’s also the conditions to factor in. Heavy would make me less confident about her. OREGON’S DAY if there is to be an upset although would prefer her on Soft rather than Heavy as well.
Selections: 1. Alizee, 3. Oregon’s Day, 8. Dyslexic, 7. Princess Posh
Race 5:
Yet another race in which track conditions make things difficult to assess three days from the race. Genuine speed from 1, 4 and 5. I have TREKKING on top despite that inside gate. If he can release himself into the clear at the right time I have him hard to beat. Keep in mind that return run was on Heavy 10 and, while he didn’t relish it, his effort was worthy. There would also be queries about BRAVE SONG and MANUEL if we’re on Heavy while MAXIMUS could surprise a few leaping into a Group race as he does here.
Selections: 8. Trekking, 7. Brave Song, 1. Manuel, 11. Maximus
Race 6:
A tremendous group of fillies here and most of the main chances seem happy on Soft/Heavy going. Look for 6 to be prominent (I think) while SEABROOK went well enough when ridden forward last start to try it again from a double figure draw. EL DORADO DREAMING was in arrears of NAKEETA JANE at her first two runs this prep then acquitted herself really well against older girls in the Coolmore. Drawn to see every possible chance. VERRY ELLEEGANT has come back a treat and is a big danger. First try at 200m for NAKEETA and it should be ideal for her. No knock on her latest against The Autumn Sun. POHUTAKAWA and ARISTIA won’t shock either.
Selections: 2. El Dorado Dreaming, 3. Verry Elleegant, 1. Nakeeta Jane, 8. Pohutukawa
Race 7:
4 to lead from 7, 9 and 13. AVILIUS is back to the odds he was in the Australian Cup and that alone makes me a bit nervous even if his win last week was totally commanding. Yes, I agree, he is more likely to win this than lose. 4 from 4 in Sydney he is and I can only see him remaining unbeaten up here. Gets to a lovely spot in running, well proven on Heavy now, 2400m no issue, it all just adds up. Nothing he beat home last week can beat him so I am looking to Kris Lees’ pair – BIG DUKE and RED CARDINAL – as the major (minor) threats while I am disinclined to dismiss MUNTAHAA just yet as he has mixed it with some very handy gallopers.
Selections: 1. Avilius, 8. Big Duke, 2. Muntahaa, 3. Red Cardinal
Race 8:
5 and 12 the most likely leaders here. 3 and 8 will try to be handy. Again I wish I knew what this surface was going to be. I would like SIEGE OF QUEBEC on a nice Soft 6 but the fact remains his only run on any sort of rain-affected was a very disappointing on Heavy 8 when 2nd-up last prep. He did win a trial last week on Heavy so I suppose that’s something (though negligible). If we are into Heavy then MASK OF TIME just has to live up to what he’s done with his latest two to be there again. Not ready to write SEAWAY off after one poor run either.
Selections: 2. Siege Of Quebec, 5. Mask Of Time, 8. Seaway, 7. Kaonic
Race 1:
1. Bellevue Hill (5 stars)
2. La Tene (4 stars)
3. Fortress Command (4 stars)
Race 2:
1. Rondinella (5 stars)
2. Goathland (4 stars)
3. Harlem (4 stars)
Race 3:
1. Madison County (5 stars)
2. Platinum Invador (4 stars)
3. Cossetot (4 stars)
Race 4:
1. Alizee (5 stars)
2. Dyslexic (4 stars)
3. Naantali (4 stars)
Race 5:
1. Ardrossan (5 stars)
2. Estijaab (4 stars)
3. Trekking (4 stars)
Race 6:
1. Verry Elleegant (5 stars)
2. Nakeeta Jane (4 stars)
3. El Dorado Dreaming (4 stars)
Race 7:
1. Avilius (5 stars)
2. Red Cardinal (4 stars)
3. Big Duke (4 stars)
Race 8:
1. Kaonic (5 stars)
2. Mask Of Time (4 stars)
3. Seaway (4 stars)
Race 1:
BELLEVUE HILL Won the Black Opal Preview on debut by a big space before finishing runner-up in the Todman Stakes last start when well backed. The step up to 1400m looks the only query. ROME Has been close-up all three runs to date including a runner-up finish in the BJ McLachlan in his first preparation and the Black Opal resuming last start. Looks suited stepping up to 1400m and is right in play. STRASBOURG Won the Max Lees Classic on debut before finishing runner-up in the Inglis Nursery in two first preparation runs before finishing on the placegetters heels in the Todman Stakes last start. The extra distance suits and rates a winning chance. LA TENE Has made a promising start to her career placing at her first three outings before winning last two including the Sires Produce last start at Flemington. Is proven at the trip and has the Godolphin polish. Enough said.
Race 2:
MOSS ‘N’ DALE Has struggled in two runs this preparation but has a very good third-up record and won the Craven Plate at Randwick in the Spring on a heavy track this trip. Expecting a sharp improvement and he is the top pick in an open race. HARLEM Raced on the speed and fought back strongly to make it back to back wins in the Australian Cup last start. It’s hard to find a reason to suggest he won’t be in the finish again. RONDINELLA HIs a New Zealand visitor with four wins from 10 starts and was Group I placed in the NZ Stakes at Ellerslie last start. Have to respect the stable when they cross the Tasman and goes in everything. GOATHLAND Won a benchmark race at Randwick resuming this trip two back before placing in the Phar Lap Stakes at Rosehill last start. Still has scope for improvement and rates a place chance.
Race 3:
MADISON COUNTY Was a dual Group I winner in New Zealand before crossing the Tasman and hit the line strongly when fourth in the Randwick Guineas at his first Australian start. Looks suited stepping up in distance and rates as the one to beat. IN A TWINKLING Is having his first Australian start after runner-up finishes last two outings including the NZ Derby at Ellerslie last start. Back to 2000m looks the only query. PLATINUM INVADOR Was placed in the New Zealand Derby last start and has bright place prospects again in his Australian debut. COSSETOT Won the Tasmanian Derby three back before placing last two at Caulfield and Moonee Valley in Group II races. There is nothing to suggest he won’t be in the finish again in the Godolphin blue.
Race 4:
ALIZEE Has gone to a new level this preparation winning three on the trot including the Futurity at Flemington before being run down late when third in the All-Star Mile last start. 1500m at Rosehill back to her own sex gives her the chance to return to the winner’s list. NAANTALI Was a Caulfield winner earlier in the preparation before finishing runner-up in successive Group III’s at Caulfield and Flemington. Was only a length from the winner when fourth in the Sunline Stakes at Moonee Valley last start and rates as one of the key chances. DYSLEXIC Came from well back when fourth in the Guy Walter resuming two back before racing on the speed when a close third in the Ajax Stakes last start. Should be at her peak third-up and goes in all the exotics. SEDANZER Was well beaten in the Wenona Girl resuming but invariably improves second-up and is a knockout hope at odds.
Race 5:
ESTIJAAB Won the Golden Slipper as a two-year-old and nothing wrong with her two runs this preparation finishing second in the Inglis Sprint resuming before finishing two-lengths from the older horses in the Challenge Stakes last start. She’s the one to beat. ARDROSSAN Has won four from five at home in New Zealand but didn’t fire in three Australian runs in the Spring. Obviously has ability and I wouldn’t be under-estimating him. TREKKING Did enough when just over a length from the winner when fourth at Rosehill resuming in the Maurice McCarten Stakes to rate a winning chance fitter second-up although the drier the track the better. MANUEL Won the Orr Stakes at Caulfield three back and hasn’t been far from the winner last couple. Back to 1200m looks the only concern.
Race 6:
VERRY ELLEEGANT Won the Ethereal Stakes over 2000m in the Spring and relished the heavy track when an easy winner of the Phar Lap Stakes last start. Likely to get similar conditions here and is a winning hope again. EL DORADO DREAMING Has hit the line strongly when placed in the Surround and Coolmore at last two starts. Won the Sires Produce as a two-year-old and looks suited out to 2000m. Definite player. NAKEETA JANE Finished third in the Group I Flight Stakes at just her third career start and was sensational winning the Light Fingers and Surround Stakes in her first two runs this preparation. The edge was off her when third in the Randwick Guineas and raced like she needs the step up in distance. Right in the mix. ARISTIA Won the Wakeful and The Oaks in the Spring and hasn’t had much luck in her two runs this preparation in the Frances Tressaday and Phar Lap Stakes. She’s ready to win third-up stepping up in distance.
Race 7:
AVILIUS Has won seven of his 10 starts since coming to Australia and it was an emphatic win in the Ranvet at Rosehill last week. Clearly the one to beat. RED CARDINAL Is an imported galloper who struggled in his first Australian preparation but has returned to racing in terrific order with successive wins in the Parramatta Cup and Sky High Stakes. Has won up to 3200m so no concerns stepping up in distance and is right in the mix. BIG DUKE Has come back in good order finishing runner-up in two of his three starts this preparation including the Manion Cup at Rosehill last start. There is nothing to suggest he won’t be in the finish again. NETTOYER Won the Aspiration Quality at Randwick two back and made up good ground in the Ranvet last week. Running out a strong 2400m looks the only query.
Race 8:
DON’T GIVE A DAMN Was a winner this track and distance last preparation. Has struggled both runs this time in but does have a very good third-up record. Anticipating a sharp improvement. SEAWAY Won his first two runs this preparation at Rosehill with both wins this trip before finishing down the track in the Ajax Stakes last start. Has to be given another chance. TOM MELBOURNE Broke a long runs of outs to win the Carrington Stakes at Randwick three back before being well beaten at last two starts. Just depends which Tom Melbourne turns up but goes in all the exotics. MASK OF TIME Has been placed both runs this preparation at Rosehill and has bright place prospects again.