The following is a preview with betting tips for Game 2 of the 2019 State of Origin Series. Origin betting promotions are also listed for those who live outside NSW and WA.
2019 State of Origin Schedule
Each game will be televised live on Channel Nine.
Game 1 – Brisbane – Suncorp Stadium
Wednesday, 5 June, 8:10 PM AEST
Referees: Gerard Sutton, Ashley Klein
QLD 18-14 NSW (0-8 at halftime)
QLD tries:
Corey Oates (53′)
Dane Gagai (67′, 71′)
NSW tries:
Josh Morris (20′)
Jake Trbojevic (76′)
Game 2 – Perth – Optus Stadium
Sunday, 23 June, 5:50 PM AWST (7:50 PM AEST)
Referees: Gerard Sutton, Ashley Klein
Game 3 – Sydney – ANZ Stadium
Wednesday, 10 July, 8:10 PM AEST
State of Origin History
Below are the State of Origin results since 2000. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.
| Year | Winner | W | L | D | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | NSW | 3 | 0 | 0 | NSW 20-16 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 10-28 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 56-6 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2001 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | QLD 34-16 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 26-8 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 40-14 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2002 | QLD | 1 | 1 | 1 | NSW 32-4 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 26-18 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 18-18 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2003 | NSW | 2 | 1 | 0 | QLD 12-25 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 27-4 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 36-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2004 | NSW | 2 | 1 | 0 | NSW 9-8 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 22-18 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 34-16 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2005 | NSW | 2 | 1 | 0 | QLD 24-20 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 32-22 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 10-32 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2006 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | NSW 17-16 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 30-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 14-16 QLD (Melbourne) |
| 2007 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | QLD 25-18 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 6-10 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 4-18 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2008 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | NSW 18-10 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 30-0 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 10-16 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2009 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | QLD 28-18 NSW (Melbourne) |
NSW 14-24 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 16-28 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2010 | QLD | 3 | 0 | 0 | NSW 24-28 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 34-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 18-23 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2011 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | QLD 16-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 18-8 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 34-24 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2012 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | NSW 10-18 QLD (Melbourne) |
NSW 16-12 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 21-20 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2013 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | NSW 14-6 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 26-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 10-12 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2014 | NSW | 2 | 1 | 0 | QLD 8-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 6-4 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 32-8 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2015 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | NSW 10-11 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 18-26 NSW (Melbourne) |
QLD 52-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2016 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | NSW 4-6 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 26-16 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 18-14 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2017 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | QLD 4-28 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 16-18 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 22-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2018 | NSW | 2 | 1 | 0 | NSW 22-12 QLD (Melbourne) |
NSW 18-14 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 18-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2019 | TBD | QLD 18-14 NSW (Brisbane) |
QLD vs. NSW (Perth) |
NSW vs. QLD (Sydney) |
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Home advantage has been historically important, with New South Wales holding a 16-1-9 record in Sydney while Queensland have gone 20-7 in Brisbane since 2000.
On neutral ground Queensland have won three since 2000, compared to two wins for NSW.
2019 State of Origin Game 2 Squads
Queensland
1. Kalyn Ponga, 2. Corey Oates, 3. Michael Morgan, 4. Will Chambers, 5. Dane Gagai, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c), 8. Dylan Napa, 9. Ben Hunt, 10. Josh Papalii, 11. Felise Kaufusi, 12. Matt Gillett, 13. Josh McGuire
Interchange: 14. Moses Mbye, 15. Jarrod Wallace, 16. Tim Glasby, 17. David Fifita
Coach: Kevin Walters
In response to the injuries to Jai Arrow (ankle) and Joe Ofahengaue (leg), Queensland have made two enforced changes from Game 1. In the sole tweak to the starting line-up, Dylan Napa has been promoted from the bench to replace Arrow in the front row, while Tim Glasby and Jarrod Wallace have been added to the bench.
New South Wales
1. James Tedesco, 2. Blake Ferguson, 3. Tom Trbojevic, 4. Jack Wighton, 5. Josh Addo-Carr, 6. James Maloney, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Daniel Saifiti, 9. Damien Cook, 10. Paul Vaughan, 11. Boyd Cordner (c), 12. Tyson Frizell, 13. Jake Trbojevic
Interchange: 14. Dale Finucane, 15. Tariq Sims, 16. Cameron Murray, 17. Wade Graham
Coach: Brad Fittler
Brad Fittler has made seven changes to the squad that lost Game 1. Centres Latrell Mitchell and Josh Morris have been dropped in favour of Tom Trbojevic and Jack Wighton. Winger Nick Cotric is out with injury and has been replaced by Blake Ferguson. Many had anticipated that halfback Mitchell Pearce would return but he has been ruled out with a hip injury so Nathan Cleary keeps his spot. Five-eighth Cody Walker has been dropped in favour of James Maloney.
In the forwards, David Klemmer has been ruled out with a wrist injury and has been replaced by Daniel Saifiti. Payne Haas, who started on the bench in Game 1, is out with a hamstring injury and has been replaced by Dale Finucane.
Two further changes to the bench see Tariq Sims added to replace the promoted Jack Wighton, while Wade Graham has been added at the expense of Angus Crichton.
Neutral territory history
The last five games played at neutral venues were all hosted by Melbourne (2006, 2009, 2012, 2015, 2018). This will be the first time that Optus Stadium has hosted an Origin game.
Games at neutral venues have averaged 36.4 total points and a 7.6 winning margin. The total score sits in-between the figures for Brisbane and Sydney. Since 2000 the average total score is 38.8 in Brisbane compared to 31.7 in Sydney. The winning margin is more in tune with Sydney figures. All five games on neutral turf were settled by 10 points or less. Since 2005 all 18 games in Sydney were won by 12 points or less, compared to ten 1-12 results and ten 13+ results in Brisbane.
Weather forecast
At the time of writing the Perth weather forecast for Sunday is cloudy with a near 95% chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The forecasted temperature is for a low of 13 degrees and a high of 20.
Bookmaker odds comparison
You can compare up-to-date bookmaker odds across numerous State of Origin markets in the bookmaker odds section.
Game 2 odds and markets can be viewed here.
Betting Tips
Series score
Over the last 19 years, only two Origin series were won 3-0: once by NSW in 2000 and once by Queensland in 2010. For this reason the best option is to dutch the NSW 2-1 QLD and NSW 1-2 QLD series score selections at 2.75 (Sportsbet) and 2.00 (Sportsbet) odds, respectively.
Head-to-head
At the time of writing the best odds were 1.959 (Betfair – including commission) for Queensland and 1.93 (bet365) for NSW.
New South Wales have won the two most recent meetings on neutral ground, however I am wary of the fact that they lost the second half of Game One 6-18. The Blues are also fielding a notably different squad to the first game, while Queensland are more settled.
Given that from 2006 onward no game on neutral ground has been won by more than 10 points, I will steer clear of the head-to-head market and instead back both Queensland 1-12 at 3.00 (Sportsbet) and NSW 1-12 at 2.95 (bet365).
Over/Under
Most bookmakers have set an over/under mark of 32.5. The last two meetings on neutral ground totaled 44 (2015) and 34 (2018) points. Since 2009 the average Game 2 total is 32.9. Rain is forecast on Sunday in Perth, which may put a dampener on the scoring. The bookmakers’ total looks pretty accurate so I will sit this market out.
Man of the Match
Cameron Munster was immense in Game 1. If I were to bet on this market I would back him at 8.00 (Sportsbet, bet365).
Try Scorers
Historically the best players to back in State of Origin try scoring markets are Queensland wingers (Corey Oates and Dane Gagai) and NSW centres (Tom Trbojevic and Jack Wighton). Given the recent Origin form of James Tedesco and Josh Addo-Carr, I would consider involving them as well.
Dane Gagai in the anytime scorer market at 2.33 (bet365) is a standout given he has scored eleven tries in as many Origin games. He failed to score in Origin 3 last year but he was playing out of position at centre in that match.
Compare first try scorer odds
Compare last try scorer odds
Compare anytime try scorer odds