The following are previews with betting tips for the semi-finals of the 2019 Super Rugby season.
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Please note that to take advantage of odds before they possibly shorten, these previews are published before the team sheets are announced. Those who are more risk averse may prefer to wait for the squad lists before wagering.
Saturday, 29 June
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Jaguares vs Brumbies |
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View a detailed form guide for Jaguares vs Brumbies
The Jaguares have reached the semi-finals for the first time after they saw off the Chiefs 21-16 in Buenos Aires last week. After jumping out to a 5-0 lead after just one minute the Argentinians had to rally from 8-16 down to secure the win. It wasn’t a complete performance. The Jaguares came off clear second best at the scrum (which doesn’t bode well against the Brumbies) and much of the result came down to unforced errors by the Chiefs. Nevertheless, the victory extended the Jaguares’ winning streak to 6 games. To their credit they defended well whilst preying on mistakes. The Jaguares have now won 10 of their last 11 matches.
The Brumbies thrashed the Sharks 38-13 in Canberra last week after taking a commanding 24-6 halftime lead. It was an excellent all round performance in which the Brumbies were both more enterprising and more powerful than the visitors. They defended well and conceded the fewest points of any of the quarter-finalists, which is a good sign given how much possession the Sharks had. The Brumbies have now won their last 7 straight games, which is the longest winning streak in the competition. In unfortunate injury news, flanker Pete Samu is out this week due to a hamstring injury.
Betting: the Jaguares won their last two fixtures against the Brumbies by 5 points, once in Canberra last year and in Round 11 of this year in Argentina. That defeat to the Jaguares was the last time the Brumbies had lost a game since Round 8. Both teams have defended well during their winning streaks so I don’t expect to see either side blown away. I would back both the Jaguares 1-12 at 2.80 (Sportsbet) and the Brumbies 1-12 at 3.50 (bet365, BetEasy).
Confidence/value: medium
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Crusaders vs Hurricanes |
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View a detailed form guide for Crusaders vs Hurricanes
The Crusaders named 12 All Blacks in their starting line-up with a further 3 on the bench and powered to a 38-14 win over the Highlanders last week. The win came on the back of a dominant forwards performance and another superb display by fly-half Richie Mo’unga. The scores were 17-14 at halftime before the Crusaders, as they have done so often this season, powered away in the second half. The Crusaders are now unbeaten in 29 straight home games.
The Hurricanes edged the Bulls 35-28 last week. They shot out to a 24-7 lead before the Bulls clawed their way back into the game. It certainly wasn’t an 80-minute performance, which is disappointing given how travel-fatigued the visitors were, but the Hurricanes now enter this clash having won 9 of their last 10 games. They are the firm underdogs in this clash but are still a dangerous opponent. Their 9/10 pairing is among the best in the competition with TJ Perenara and Beauden Barrett having played 100 Super Rugby matches together. Those two were central to the Hurricanes’ win last week.
Betting: The Crusaders have a perfect 22-0 home record in playoff rugby, with 19 of those wins coming by double-digit scorelines. The Hurricanes have only the 6th best defensive stats in the competition and they looked suspect defensively last week, which is a concern given the Crusaders boast both the best offensive and defensive stats. The Crusaders have won the last four straight against the Hurricanes, with those wins coming by 24-13 (Christchurch, 2018), 30-12 (Christchurch, 2018), 38-22 (Christchurch, 2019) and 32-8 (Wellington, 2019) scorelines. The Hurricanes have gone 0-2 as the away underdog over the last 12 months while the Crusaders have gone 13-1-0 at home. I would back the Crusaders in the head-to-head at 1.25 (bet365, Betstar, Bookmaker, Ladbrokes). Of the Crusaders’ 13 home wins over the last twelve months, 12 were by 13+ points and all 13 were by 8+ points. For those looking for more risk I would back the Crusaders -7.5 at 1.67 (Sportsbet).
Confidence/value: medium
Best Bets of the Round
Back the Crusaders in the head-to-head at 1.25 (bet365, Betstar, Bookmaker, Ladbrokes)