2019 State of Origin Game 3 Preview & Betting Tips

The following is a preview with betting tips for Game 3 of the 2019 State of Origin Series. Origin betting promotions are also listed for those who live outside NSW and WA.

2019 State of Origin Schedule

Each game is televised live on Channel Nine.

Game 1 – Brisbane – Suncorp Stadium

Wednesday, 5 June, 8:10 PM AEST
Referees: Gerard Sutton, Ashley Klein
QLD 18-14 NSW (0-8 at halftime)

QLD tries:
Corey Oates (53′)
Dane Gagai (67′, 71′)

NSW tries:
Josh Morris (20′)
Jake Trbojevic (76′)

Game 2 – Perth – Optus Stadium

Sunday, 23 June, 5:50 PM AWST (7:50 PM AEST)
Referees: Gerard Sutton, Ashley Klein
QLD 6-38 NSW (6-18 at halftime)

QLD tries:
Will Chambers (14′ pen)

NSW tries:
Tom Trbojevic (8′, 36′, 54′)
Josh Addo-Carr (58′, 74′)
Tyson Frizell (19′)

Game 3 – Sydney – ANZ Stadium

Wednesday, 10 July, 8:10 PM AEST
Referees: Gerard Sutton, Ashley Klein

State of Origin History

Below are the State of Origin results since 2000. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.

Home advantage has been historically important. New South Wales have a 16-1-9 record in Sydney since 2000, while Queensland have gone 20-7 in Brisbane.

On neutral ground Queensland and NSW have won three each since 2000, with NSW winning the last three.

2019 State of Origin Game 3 Squads

New South Wales

1. James Tedesco, 2. Blake Ferguson, 3. Tom Trbojevic, 4. Jack Wighton, 5. Josh Addo-Carr, 6. James Maloney, 7. Mitchell Pearce, 8. Daniel Saifiti, 9. Damien Cook, 10. Paul Vaughan, 11. Boyd Cordner (c), 12. Tyson Frizell, 13. Jake Trbojevic
Interchange: 14. Dale Finucane, 15. David Klemmer, 16. Cameron Murray, 17. Wade Graham
18th man: Clint Gutherson
Coach: Brad Fittler

After making seven changes to the squad that lost Game 1, Brad Fittler has made just one injury-enforced change and one suspension-enforced change to the Game 3 squad. Mitchell Pearce returns to the side after halfback Nathan Cleary failed to overcome an ankle injury. Cleary was originally named but failed a fitness test on Wednesday. Pearce has been in good form in the NRL this season but was ruled out of Games 1 & 2 due to injury. He has a poor 5-13 record in the State of Origin (0-7 in Game 3’s) but was the obvious selection in light of the injuries to Luke Keary and Adam Reynolds.

Tariq Sims was originally named on the bench but has picked up a one-game suspension. David Klemmer returns to the side in Sims’ place after he missed Game 2 with a wrist injury. At the time of writing it remains unclear whether he will start on the bench. Daniel Saifiti is currently slated to wear the No.8.

Queensland

1. Cameron Munster, 2. Corey Oates, 3. Michael Morgan, 4. Will Chambers, 5. Dane Gagai, 6. Corey Norman, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c), 8. Joe Ofahengaue, 9. Ben Hunt, 10. Josh Papalii, 11. Felise Kaufusi, 12. Matt Gillett, 13. Josh McGuire
Interchange: 14. Moses Mbye, 15. Christian Welch, 16. Tim Glasby, 17. David Fifita
18th man: Ethan Lowe
Coach: Kevin Walters

Fullback Kalyn Ponga has been ruled out with a calf injury so Cameron Munster will shift from five-eighth to fullback. Corey Norman has joined the squad and will make his debut at five-eighth.

In one change to the starting forwards, Joe Ofahengaue rejoins the side after missing Game 2 with a leg injury. He starts at the expense of Dylan Napa, who has been dropped from the side after a poor showing in Game 2.

The final change sees Christian Welch set to make his debut from the bench at the expense of Jarrod Wallace.

ANZ Stadium history

Fixtures at ANZ Stadium tend to have lower total scores and narrower winning margins than at Suncorp Stadium Stadium. Since 2000 the average total score is 38.8 in Brisbane compared to 31.7 in Sydney. During this time, 12 games were won by 1-12 points and 15 games were won by 13+ points in Brisbane. In contrast, 21 games were won by 1-12 points and just 5 games were won by 13+ points in Sydney. Since 2005 the disparity has grown even larger, with all 18 games in Sydney won by 12 points or less, compared to nine 1-12 results and ten 13+ results in Brisbane.

Game 3 History

Game 3’s typically have higher scores. The average total score since 2000 is 39.9 for Game 3, compared to 32.4 for Game 1 and 34.7 for Game 2. The trend is the same for 2009 data onward. The average total score since 2009 is 39.4 for Game 3, compared to 29.4 for Game 1 and 33.6 for Game 2.

The winning margins have been higher for Game 3’s. Since 2000 the average Game 3 margin is 15.5, compared to 8.2 for Game 1 and 13.5 for Game 2.

Weather forecast

At the time of writing the Sydney weather forecast for Wednesday is sunny with light winds.

Bookmaker odds comparison

You can compare bookmaker odds across numerous State of Origin markets in the bookmaker odds section.

Game 3 odds and markets can be viewed here.

Betting Tips

Head-to-head

At the time of writing the best odds are 1.44 (Betfair) for New South Wales and 3.20 (Betfair) for Queensland.

Those who are expecting another NSW blowout win should be cautious. Most blowout wins since 2000 have either been followed by a tighter following game or a defeat. The results from 2008 onward are:
2008: QLD won Game 2 by 30 points and Game 3 by just 6 points => a swing of 24 points
2010: QLD won Game 2 by 28 points and Game 3 by just 5 points => a swing of 23 points
2013: QLD won Game 2 by 20 points and Game 3 by just 2 points => a swing of 18 points
2017: NSW won Game 1 by 24 points and lost Game 2 by 2 points => a swing of 26 points

Given the 32-point margin in Game 2 and the fact that Game 3 is being played at ANZ Stadium, I expect NSW will still win Game 3, but I would stay clear of them in the 13+ market and instead back them in the head-to-head.

Over/Under

Most bookmakers have set an over/under mark of 34.5. This sits above the 31.7 average for Sydney but below the 39.9 average for Game 3’s. Looking at the last eight Game 3’s where the series was on the line, four went below 34.5 and four went above. The 34.5 mark chosen by bookmakers looks appropriate so I will sit this market out.

Try Scorers

Historically the best players to back in State of Origin try scoring markets are Queensland wingers (Corey Oates and Dane Gagai) and NSW centres (Tom Trbojevic and Jack Wighton).

Dane Gagai has scored eleven tries in twelve Origin games but I’m keener on the NSW players given their dominance in Game 2 and the fact that Game 3 is being played in Sydney.

Tom Trbojevic scored three tries in Game 2 and he is a NSW centre, so I would definitely include him. Given the rich try scoring Origin form of Josh Addo-Carr, I would consider backing him as well.

For those who enjoy high-odds wagering, Sportsbet offers exacta and quinella markets for the first and second try scorers for the State of Origin. An exacta is a bet on the first and second try scorers in correct order. A quinella is a bet on the first two try scorers in either order. Note that the first and second try scorers could be the same person. The quinella odds range from 31.00 to 501.00 and the exacta odds range from 51.00 to 501.00. To view these markets, go to the Sportsbet State of Origin odds then scroll down and expand the ‘Player Markets’ tab. If I were to bet on this market I would back the Josh Addo-Carr / Tom Trbojevic quinella selection at 36.00 odds.

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