The following are previews with betting tips for Round 19 of the 2019 AFL season.
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Friday, July 26
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Collingwood vs Richmond7:50pm AEST, MCG |
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The previous week’s one-point win over the Eagles was supposed to be what kick-started the run into the finals for Collingwood, but it didn’t last long: a terrible opening quarter against the Giants quickly brought them back to Earth. The Giants dominated the quarter, and the game was over before the Pies even had a chance to regroup. They’ve now lost three of their past four games, and their season is on the line this Friday evening when they take on the Tigers at the MCG. There’s a top four spot up for grabs for the winner, and you’d suspect there’s every chance the make-up of the top four won’t change after this weekend.
The Tigers have had a much better month than the Pies, having won their last four games. It’s the perfect time for them to come up against Collingwood, a team they’ve struggled against in recent times. The man who has caused them plenty of grief, big Mason Cox, is horribly out of form, and the majority of his teammates aren’t doing too well either. I expect the Pies will give a better representation of themselves this week, but I’m not confident it’ll be good enough to beat the in-form Tigers.
Betting tip: Richmond to win @ $1.65 (TopBetta)
Saturday, July 27
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Hawthorn vs Brisbane1:45pm AEST, University of Tasmania Stadium |
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There were some funny results on the weekend and they all seemed to work in Hawthorn’s favour, meaning the Hawks are now back in with a chance of making the top eight, something that seemed incredibly unlikely three weeks ago. And while some results out of their control unexpectedly fell their way, they took control of their own destiny by upsetting the Cats on Sunday afternoon. Their fate for 2019 is now almost entirely in their own hands; if they win four of their remaining five games, they’ll play finals. But his week will be a tough one — the Lions are the form team of the competition right now. It helps being in Tasmania, but the Lions beat the Hawks down there last year, and have won the last three encounters between the two teams.
The Hawks are building nicely, but the Lions are flying. Even without star defender Harris Andrews, I can’t find a strong enough reason to back the Hawks in this one; I do think it’ll be relatively close, but I’m tipping the Lions will continue on their merry way. Jarman Impey’s loss is also a significant blow to Hawthorn: he was a much improved player this year, and his long-term absence will hurt.
Betting tip: Brisbane to win @ $2.08 (BetFair)
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Carlton vs Adelaide2:10pm AEST, MCG |
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The Blues didn’t have any problems coping with favouritism last weekend, easily taking care of a more-spirited Gold Coast team. They’ve now won three of their last six, and with the Crows struggling right now, the Blues could realistically record another win this weekend. Unfortunately star midfielder Patrick Cripps is clearly struggling with his ankle problem; if he were fully fit, you’d just about back the Blues in this weekend. Still, they’ve been doing pretty well without him at his best, and you’d expect they’ll take it up to the battling Crows on Saturday, who have stunningly dropped Eddie Betts, as well as rested important defender Alex Keath.
After a pitiful last quarter capitulation against the Bombers last Friday night, Adelaide need a win to keep some breathing space between themselves and the teams below them looking to take their spot in the eight. I’m expecting they’ll come out fired up considering their poor form of the last month, but it might not be all that easy for them to turn things around, especially not against a determined Carlton team who have suddenly got a taste for winning. I reckon the Crows will get over the line in the end, but expect it’ll be neck-and-neck until the final siren.
Betting tip: Adelaide to win @ $1.57 (BetFair)
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West Coast vs North Melbourne4:35pm AEST, Optus Stadium |
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The Eagles responded from their disappointing loss to Collingwood by putting in a strong four quarter effort against the Demons on Sunday. It wasn’t a game for the ages, but it was vital for the Eagles to get the four points; the win, along with Collingwood’s loss, puts them back in a good position to fight for a top two finish. This week they return to Perth to host the Kangaroos, who are coming off a tight loss to the Lions in Brisbane. It was a good effort from the Roos, but the home team was just too strong in the end, though ably helped by a contentious umpiring decision or two.
They’re still playing good footy despite having lost their past two games so you’d suspect they’ll give the Eagles a genuine test in this one, but it’s hard to see them actually getting over the line. It’s likely to be another admirable loss for North, which is not what they’re after, but as long as they keep up the strong effort it might be enough to clinch Rhyce Shaw a senior coaching job. West Coast to win by four or five goals.
Betting tip: West Coast (-17.5) @ $1.91 (Bet365)
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St Kilda vs Melbourne7:25pm AEST, Marvel Stadium |
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The Saints were able to continue the 2019 trend of winning the week after a coach has been sacked, dominating the first quarter against the Western Bulldogs to record a morale-boosting 27-point win. It’s hard to know why this continues to happen: are the players glad that the coach is gone? Or is it simply a pressure relief, regardless of how they felt about the coach? It’s impossible for us to know, but regardless, it was St Kilda’s best performance for a long time.
Whether they can back that up for the rest of the year is another question, but they’ve got a good man at the helm in Brett Ratten. If he can get the Saints playing to that standard every game for the next five weeks he’ll join Rhyce Shaw and David Teague as potential senior coaches for next year. You’d expect they’ll be able to record another victory this week when they take on the Demons, who now sit second bottom with just five wins for the year. It’s been a horror year for them after the promise of the off-season, and while a couple of wins in the home stretch would be nice, what happens from here ultimately doesn’t matter all that much. I expect this will be a fairly close game of footy but think the Saints will power away from the Demons at some stage in the second half.
Betting tip: St Kilda to win @ $2.05 (UniBet)
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Port Adelaide vs GWS Giants7:40pm AEST, Adelaide Oval |
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Port Adelaide finally ended their alternating win-loss pattern, though in the opposite way they have would liked. It was always going to be tough for them to beat the Tigers at the ‘G, but they never really challenged the home team. It makes their task of making the top eight a little more difficult, particularly now that they face the Giants this weekend in what shapes as a huge contest for both clubs.
GWS ended their run of three consecutive losses with a domineering display against Collingwood, breathing new life back into their season. The three losses probably ended any chances of a top four finish, but if they can keep playing like they did against Collingwood they’ll finish the season with a home elimination final and who knows what could happen from there. I expect they’ll beat the Power this week: Port have been flakey, and I get the feeling they might follow last year’s script, where a strong start to the season was wasted when they couldn’t handle the pressure as the season heated up. They’ve made a statement by dropping Charlie Dixon and Stephen Motlop, but will that have any impact on this playing group? I think it’ll be fairly close, but I expect the Giants to get home by a couple of goals.
Betting tip: GWS to win @ $1.86 (BetFair)
Sunday, July 28
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Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle1:10pm AEST, Marvel Stadium |
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The Dogs once again couldn’t win against a team they should have beaten; they’ve now lost to Gold Coast, Carlton, St Kilda, and North — all teams below them — but have beaten Geelong, Brisbane, Richmond and Port. It adds up to a hugely wasted opportunity, because their best clearly stacks up pretty well, but their worst holds them back way too much, so much so that they’re now unlikely to feature in any finals action this year.
It’s disappointing for Luke Beveridge and his team, but the positive is there’s plenty to look forward to in regards to the future of the club. The immediate future sees them hosting the Dockers on Sunday afternoon; Fremantle are finally back on the winner’s list, though their one-point victory over the Swans wasn’t particularly convincing. Nevertheless, they did it without their star midfielder in Nat Fyfe, and his return this week will be a massive boost. The Dogs have some inclusions of their own, with veteran back Dale Morris returning for his first senior game of 2019, while young pup Rhylee West is set to play his first game for the club where his father played over 300. It should be a fascinating game, but I’m not sure the Dockers are in good enough form to get over the Dogs at Marvel Stadium; I’m going with the Dogs by three goals.
Betting tip: Western Bulldogs (-11.5) @ $1.91 (BetEasy)
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Sydney vs Geelong3:20pm AEST, SCG |
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The Cats are still a game clear on top of the ladder, but they wouldn’t want their form slump to carry on for too much longer. The good thing about winning so many games early on is that you can afford to drop off for a while: they’ve had their drop-off, now it’s time to get back to their best. They’ll attempt to do that this week when they travel to the SCG to take on the Swans, who have now lost three consecutive games after a stronger patch in the middle of the season.
They’re still without Buddy Franklin and while at times they’ve coped without him, over the past month their scoring has really dried up. The Cats aren’t likely to let them cut loose, so it’s hard to see this week being any different. They’ve added a few goal kickers to the extended bench in Daniel Menzel, James Rose, and Ben Ronke, but they aren’t really guys you can build a forward line around. Despite the Cats having rested some of their important players — Zach Tuohy and Gary Rohan — it should be a relatively comfortable win for Geelong in this one; the Swans just don’t seem to be playing a brand of footy capable of kicking winning scores at present.
Betting tip: Geelong to win @ $1.52 (BetFair)
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Gold Coast vs Essendon4:40pm AEST, Metricon Stadium |
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The Bombers stretched their winning streak to four with another impressive victory on the weekend, this one over the Crows in Adelaide, and you’d now expect they’re going to make the finals in 2019. There’s still obviously quite a bit to play out, but they’re two games clear with only five rounds remaining: I’d say they’re a pretty safe bet. And then when you consider they’ve got the Gold Coast this week, they’re almost a certainty.
The Suns were definitely better against the Blues last week than they’d been the previous fortnight, but it still resulted in a four goal loss, and Carlton weren’t playing a particular strong game. If the Bombers are on this week, you’d suspect the margin to be around the 10 goal mark, and potentially much more than that if the Suns are lacklustre. Either way, it’s safe to say this is almost certainly going to be an Essendon win despite the big outs of Conor McKenna and Dyson Heppell.
Betting tip: Essendon (-40.5) @ $2.10 (TopBetta)
Best Bets of the Round
Brisbane to win @ $2.08 (BetFair)