The following is a survey of Australian racing tips for Saturday, October 19. The focus is on the feature racing at Caulfield and Randwick. This includes the Everest (Race 7) at Randwick and the Caulfield Cup (Race 9) at Caulfield. More tips and previews will be added as they become available.
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Best bets
Caulfield Race 7: No. 4 Miss Leonidas
Caulfield Race 9: No. 6 Finche
Randwick Race 5: No. 1 Victorem
Randwick Race 6: No. 1 Brutal
Randwick Race 8: No. 1 Happy Clapper
Caulfield
Unibet – From the Trader’s Desk:
Race 9 #3 Mer De Glace
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
Race 9: 1. THE CHOSEN ONE, 2. Mer De Glace, 3. Finche, 4. Vow And Declare
Race 9:
BACK – Gold Mount – Bet to WIN (stake 0.4% of your total bank)
BACK – The Chosen One – Bet to WIN (stake 0.4% of your total bank)
BACK – Brimham Rocks – Bet to WIN (stake 0.2% of your total bank)
Race 1, No.7 Arctic Shock – 4.5 stars
Race 6, No.7 Vegas Jewel – 3 stars
Race 9:
1. Finche
2. Constantinople
3. Vow and Declare
4. Mustajeer
5. Mr Quickie
Best Bet: Finche ($6.00) – 3.5 stars
Next Best: Vow and Declare ($9.00)
Exotic: Trifecta: 4,6,11,14/1,4,5,6,11,12,14/1,4,5,6,7,8,11,12,14,16
Race 9:
1. Finche
2. Mirage Dancer
3. Mr Quickie
Betfair – Feature Race Reports:
Race 4:
Betting Confidence: High
Back – #3 Warning; #7 Thought Of That
Race 6:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #8 Gamay; #7 Vegas Jewel
Race 7:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #9 God Of Thunder
Race 8:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #4 Streets Of Avalon
Race 9:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #6 Finche; #14 Vow And Declare
Race 10:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #10 Naantali; #8 Baccarat Baby
Race 4: Thought Of That
Race 6: Snapdancer
Race 7: Miss Leonidas, saving on I Am Immortal
Race 8: Desert Lord
Race 9: Constantinople
Race 10: Pohutukawa
Race 4:
THOUGHT OF THAT (7) is thrown into much deeper waters here but he could get complete control of things from the front and he leapt out of the ground when allowed to roll last time. Strong rating win and no shock to see him give this a mighty shake. WARNING (3) won the key lead up. It was a strongly run race and likely to face a completely different scenario here but have to respect all the same. MIAMI BOUND (9) raced a touch flat last time but looking for this trip now. Similar story POWER SCHEME (1) who was very plain in the Stutt but the fresh run shows him to be much better than that. CREATOR (4) could be a knockout at big odds.
Race 6:
SNAPDANCER (4) has to jump quickly up in trip but she is bred to stay and she brings stronger formlines to the table. Liked her effort in the Thousand Guineas Prelude where a few of them were too slick but she held her ground and shapes as though further would suit. Gets that now. VEGAS JEWEL (7) was strong winning at the Valley over the mile last time. She is two for two and expect her to measure right up. CELESTIAL FALLS (2) beat GAMAY (8) in the Oaks Trial at Flemington. More depth to this but think that the form can measure right up. ORIENTAL LILY (1) ran on well in the Manifold and could improve again up to 2000m. Respected.
Race 7:
MISS LEONIDAS (4) was terrific around the Valley last time and if she can replicate what she did there today she is clearly the horse to beat. Has ripped around here in the past so no issue at all coming to Caulfield. I AM IMMORTAL (7) has also ripped around Caulfeld and posted some strong ratings but he was just plain first up. Kept fresh and tongue tie goes on. Could be a clue to the fresh effort there. Smart stable place him agressively. Wary. CRYSTAL DREAMER (1) was big odds but a good winner here fresh and set for this since. GOD OF THUNDER (9) will be rattling home and TACTICAL ADVANTAGE (3) is well up to the grade and much better suited than he was around the Valley last time. Can be a sharp improver.
Race 8:
ROYAL MEETING (2) is a most interesting runner. Just the two runs to his name, both last season in Europe, winning on debut and then posting a strong Group 1 win in France where he knocked off the subsequent 1000 Guineas winner in Hermosa. Massive form for a race like this but the best part of 12 months off and on the other side of the world now. LAND OF PLENTY (1) won the Toorak at this carnival last year. Had a setback since then but clearly good enough if right. DESERT LORD (9) was sound in the Epsom and that’s a good lead in to this. He may be the betting option. TOM MELBOURNE (6) and MANOLO BLAHNIQ (7) have both set themselves up to peak for this and have to be respected.
Race 9:
CONSTANTINOPLE (11) draws ideally and that gives him a chance to settle midfield and relax. Has produced some very strong performances at home this year and looks like improving again with the benefit of more racing. Talented a massive upside. He goes on top of FINCHE (6) who can roll forward from the wide draw and look to make this a good test at the trip. Stays really well. MER DE GLACE (3) needs some luck in running from his wide draw but has a top jock booked for the task and should go well. MR QUICKIE (12) was flat last time but his return was an eye-catcher and stamped him as one of the key players in this race while THE CHOSEN ONE (16) booked his ticket last week with a strong win and looks sure to go well again.
Race 10:
POHUTUKAWA (7) was okay fresh before improving nicely second up in the Blazer. Couldn’t reel in the leader there but the pace of the race made that task a tough one. Closed strongly and ready to perform at her top now. BACCARAT BABY (8) beat nice horses first up in Brisbane without having to be at her very best. Leaves her with plenty more to offer coming here second up. She’s a big threat. SAVATIANO (6) will be fitter second up and can run well. SPANISH WHISPER (3) was ordnary in the Blazer but her win prior says she’s good enough. Could bounce back. INVINCIBELLA (1) will be fitter and has all the right formlines to figure. Respect.
Race 4:
2. Huntly Castle (3 stars)
9. Miami Bound (3 stars)
1. Power Scheme (3 stars)
6. Miroku (3 stars)
Race 6:
2. Celestial Falls (3 stars)
1. Oriental Lily (3 stars)
4. Snapdancer (3 stars)
6. Presently (3 stars)
Race 7:
9. God Of Thunder (5 stars)
8. Not Enough Effort (4 stars)
4. Miss Leonidas (2 stars)
1. Crystal Dreamer (2 stars)
Race 8:
8. Variation (5 stars)
6. Tom Melbourne (4 stars)
2. Royal Meeting (2 stars)
9. Desert Lord (2 stars)
Race 9:
1. Hartnell (5 stars)
10. Big Duke (4 stars)
9. Angel Of Truth (2 stars)
12. Mr Quickie (2 stars)
Race 10:
1. Invincibella (5 stars)
8. Baccarat Baby (4 stars)
11. Angelic Ruler (3 stars)
6. Savatiano (3 stars)
Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:
Race 4:
SPEED: 7 can lead 6 with 1, 8 off them? WARNING was very strong at the end of 1800m with blinkers on. His 11.86 last 200m was .34 faster than anything else in the race. Second-fastest home was HUNTLY CASTLE. They had BRILLIANT VENTURE behind them and that horse ties in the filly MIAMI BOUND as there was little between them when they clashed in a maiden at Bendigo. Miami Bound ran very well here last time, ridden closer than is her usual pattern. Fancy she’s a big danger. CREATOR is crying out for ground it seems. MIROKU has upside. Expect better from POWER SCHEME.
Selections: 3. Warning, 9. Miami Bound, 4. Creator, 2. Huntly Castle
Race 6:
SPEED: 2, 10 from any of 3, 4, 8, 11, 12 with 7 off them. VEGAS JEWEL looks smart. Love the way she rounded them up at MV at start two. She took some winding up but ran strong last 600m/overall figures and fancy she will relish 2000m. CELESTIAL FALLS led on a good day for leaders at Flemington latest and held off GAMAY, who was wide/super! ORIENTAL LILY rushed home in a swoopers’ Edward Manifold. Second was Fascino, who beat home Tragic prior, and that’s the filly Vegas Jewel thrashed at MV. SNAPDANCER comes through Guineas Prelude, which is stronger form! 1400m to 2000m? OCEAN MISS can win.
Selections: 7. Vegas Jewel, 4. Snapdancer, 2. Celestial Falls, 8. Gamay
Race 7:
SPEED: 4, 7, 6, 10 but a few others capable of being handy. CRYSTAL DREAMER has been kept fresh since that slick return win here, beating Ball of Muscle. MALIBU STYLE is always genuine. TACTICAL ADVANTAGE beat INTUITION and BADAJOZ in a Hawkesbury Rush and meets them better at the weights. Doubt he handled The Valley overly well fresh. In that race MISS LEONIDAS gave speed machine Nature Strip a scare. If she repeats that she goes close here. GOD OF THUNDER will be charging. MCLAREN beat Group 1 winner Le Romain in a trial.
Selections: 4. Miss Leonidas, 3. Tactical Advantage, 1. Crystal Dreamer, 9. God Of Thunder
Race 8:
DESERT LORD’s last three dry-track runs are wins by an aggregate 9.6 lengths. He set a fast (+5L vs average) tempo two-back and was run over by Kolding and Fierce Impact, who then won Group 1s. Back to 1400m, back from G1 class here. ROYAL MEETING makes his Oz debut and won a G1 at just start two, beating Hermosa, who then won two Group 1s. Huge watch. LAND OF PLENTY ran a terrific length third in the Australia Stakes at WFA fresh last prep at 1200m. VARIATION has form through Whispering Brook, who won that Australia Stakes. MANOLO BLAHNIQ and STREETS OF AVALON’s form ties in with each other.
Selections: 9. Desert Lord, 2. Royal Meeting, 1. Land Of Plenty, 8. Variation
Race 9:
SPEED: 18 looks leader with 1,5,6,7,9,11 & 17 handy. MIRAGE DANCER has fabulous 2400m form including a second to last year’s Caulfield Cup winner Best Solution. MER DE GLACE is unbeaten in 2019. MUSTAJEER just won an Ebor very well. CONSTANTINOPLE is very gifted but still a work in progress it seems. To the locals: FINCHE was as strong as anything through the line in Turnbull but draws out. VOW AND DECLARE was also super over the line and was wide when beaten by MR QUICKIE (forgive his Turnbull miss) in Qld Derby. QAFILA a good roughie? THE CHOSEN ONE and WOLFE are in the game for sure.
Selections: 14. Vow And Declare, 6. Finche, 2. Mirage Dancer, 12. Mr Quickie
Race 10:
SPEED: 9 may lead 3. 4, 6 handy. ANGELIC RULER was very good fresh without luck then ran home hard against the pattern/tempo in the Blazer. POHUTUKAWA beat her home there with mixed luck on the day. Third up last prep she was beaten a lip by class mare INVINCIBELLA with SAVATIANO third so it all ties in. Invincibella ran well fresh given the slow speed. KRONE ran very well fresh last prep at 1100m then beat Everest hopeful Classique Legend. She may be the overs here and jumped out well enough. ARISTIA may need further now but she’s a chance. JAMAICAN RAIN (leads/pattern?) a hope.
Selections: 11. Angelic Ruler, 7. Pohutukawa, 1. Invincibella, 12. Krone
Race 4:
1. Thought Of That (5 stars)
2. Warning (4 stars)
3. Miami Bound (4 stars)
Race 6:
1. Snapdancer (5 stars)
2. Vegas Jewel (4 stars)
3. Celestial Falls (4 stars)
Race 7:
1. Miss Leonidas (5 stars)
2. I Am Immortal (4 stars)
3. Crystal Dreamer (4 stars)
Race 8:
1. Royal Meeting (5 stars)
2. Land Of Plenty (2 stars)
3. Desert Lord (5 stars)
Race 9:
1. Constantinople (5 stars)
2. Finche (4 stars)
3. Mer De Glace (4 stars)
Race 10:
1. Pohutukawa (5 stars)
2. Baccarat Baby (4 stars)
3. Savatiano (4 stars)
Race 4:
WARNING (3) Finished on top last run at Flemington but up in grade. Could prove hard to beat. THOUGHT OF THAT (7) Ran away with a win last run at Donald but up against stronger competition here. Suited here. MIAMI BOUND (9) Got the cash when winning two runs back at Bendigo. Must respect. POWER SCHEME (1) Was fighting out the finish when winning two runs back at Moonee Valley and very competitive this preparation. Expect to go close.
Race 6:
CELESTIAL FALLS (2) Third up today. Handy enough when winning last start at Flemington but facing a stronger grade. Hard to beat and well in this. VEGAS JEWEL (7) Scored a victory last start at Moonee Valley but up in grade. Strong form this preparation winning 2 from as many attempts. Suited here. SNAPDANCER (4) Bold effort to win three runs back at Ballarat and goes down in grade. Has run into the money 3 from 4 attempts this campaign. Up to these. GAMAY (8) Had a comfortable win two runs back at Ballarat but facing a stronger class today. Won’t be far away.
Race 7:
MISS LEONIDAS (4) Competitive effort when 2nd last time at Moonee Valley and third up from a break. Has shown early pace in races to date. Sure to be thereabouts again. GOD OF THUNDER (9) Did enough to win three runs back at Rosehill but facing a stronger class. Will be motoring home late. Serious player. NOT ENOUGH EFFORT (8) Having second run back from a break. Displayed potential when winning three runs back at Flemington and gets some weight relief. Consider an each way bet. MCLAREN (10) Chimed in with a win three runs back at Rosehill and shows good early pace. Looks set to run a place.
Race 8:
ROYAL MEETING (2) Had a break from racing and returns to competition here. Did a good job when winning last start at Chantilly but going up in weight here. Has to be strongly considered. LAND OF PLENTY (1) Will be trying to topple them late. Lost ground in the run home when 19th last time at Randwick and racing fresh after a break. Can bounce back and figure here. DESERT LORD (9) Gave plenty of cheek when 3rd two runs back at Randwick and ideal trip as proven previously. Warrants a bet. TOM MELBOURNE (6) Always seems to find the line well. Outgunned at the finish when 3rd last start at Rosehill and third up from a spell. Strong each way hope.
Race 9:
FINCHE (6) Racing in great form and looks ideally weighted here. Top rater. MER DE GLACE (3) Has built an impressive record in Japan and can go on with it here. Winning claims. MUSTAJEER (4) Good effort to take out the Ebor Handicap last time out. Each way. CONSTANTINOPLE (11) Has only had 8 career starts but looks to have plenty of upside. One to watch.
Race 10:
POHUTUKAWA (7) Kept finding the line when 2nd last time at Flemington and will be motoring home late. Can get the job done. ANGELIC RULER (11) Having third run back from a spell. Did well to run 3rd last run at Flemington. Worth consideration. SAVATIANO (6) Did enough to win three runs back at Eagle Farm and should muster plenty of early toe. Consider an each way bet. BACCARAT BABY (8) Second up. Got the upper hand late when winning last start at Eagle Farm but up in grade. Some place claims.
Randwick
Unibet – From the Trader’s Desk:
Race 3 #8 Gumshoe – VALUE BET
Race 5 #1 Victorem – LAY BET
Race 6 #1 Brutal – BEST BET
Race 7 #1 Santa Ana Lane
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
Race 7: 1. ALIZEE, 2. Santa Ana Lane, 3. Yes Yes Yes, 4. In Her Time
Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:
Race 7:
BACK – Pierata 1 units (WIN)
BACK – Alizee 0.5 unit (WIN)
Race 7:
BACK – Yes Yes Yes – Bet to WIN (stake 0.7% of your total bank)
BACK – In Her Time – Bet to WIN (stake 0.3% of your total bank)
Race 2, No.2 Humbolt Current – 5 stars
Race 5, No.1 Victorem – 4.5 stars
Race 7:
1. Arcadia Queen
2. Pierata
3. Santa Ana Lane
4. Nature Strip
5. Sunlight
Best Bet: Arcadia Queen ($5.00) – 4.5 stars
Best Value: Nature Strip ($23)
Exotic: Boxed Exacta (1,2,4,9,11)
Race 7:
1. Arcadia Queen
2. Santa Ana Lane
3. Pierata
Betfair – Feature Race Reports:
Race 6:
Betting Confidence: Low
Back – #5 Easy Eddie
Race 7:
Betting Confidence: High
Back – #2 Pierata
Race 8:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #3 Life Less Ordinary
Race 5:
VICTOREM (1) went to the paddock in great form and has been well set up for this with two impressive trials. Goes like a bomb fresh and is very well placed at the weights. Drawn to get the gun run and with Berry aboard, he should take plenty of beating. HANDLE THE TRUTH (8) didn’t have the best of luck first up and can improve sharply here. Handles all conditions and looms as a major threat. NOTATION (12) continues to race well and has to be kept safe dropping back in trip. JMac a key booking. NOBLE BOY (3) the next in line.
Race 6:
BRUTAL (1) returned in a big way last start when too strong in the Premiere. Marked up to his peak on that occasion and is expected to improve further racing second up. Stays at 1200m which is some concern, however he is all class and very well placed at WFA. Clearly the one to beat. HOME OF THE BRAVE (2) returned to form last start behind the former and has to be respected off the back of that. CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES (12) hasn’t been far off the mark and has to be included with Nash aboard, while expecting BRAVE SONG (3) to show sharp improvement.
Race 7:
SANTA ANA LANE (1) did enough first up when closing off well late behind Sunlight. Expected to elevate sharply second up and anywhere near his effort in the TJ and he is sure to take a power of beating. Inside draw a bit sticky, but trust in Zahra to get it right. PIERATA (2) is back better than ever and should be right at his peak racing third up. Drawn to get first run and should make his presence felt. ARCADIA QUEEN (11) is the big unknown, will she be sharp enough at 1200m? It remains to be seen, however no question she has the talent. TEN SOVEREIGNS (7) is the early overs. Crazy price ($26) for a horse with his talent, not to mention the trainer/jockey combination.
Race 8:
HAPPY CLAPPER (1) has been below his best in two runs back this time in, but still good enough to be winning here. Looks like he’s looking for this trip now and like him kept fresh (28 days). Berry takes over and the old boy should take some beating. SAMADOUBT (2) was beaten by the wet-track last start, much better suited here and should prove hard to get passed. Horse is flying. LIFE LESS ORDINARY (3) did enough in the Hill Stakes last start to suggest he is right on track and with Bowman sticking aboard, he has to be kept safe. STAMPEDE (4) continues to race well, next best.
Race 5:
16. Attila (3 stars)
6. Tarbert (3 stars)
9. Star Boy (3 stars)
12. Notation (3 stars)
Race 6:
1. Brutal (5 stars)
6. Deprive (3 stars)
3. Brave Song (2 stars)
7. Kaspersky (2 stars)
Race 7:
3. Redzel (5 stars)
13. Brutal (3 stars)
11. Arcadia Queen (3 stars)
2. Pierata (3 stars)
Race 8:
2. Samadoubt (3 stars)
1. Happy Clapper (3 stars)
4. Stampede (3 stars)
8. Harper’s Choice (2 stars)
Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:
Race 5:
Speed from 8, 9 and 13. (Also 17 if he makes his way in but dare say that’s unlikely.) Stablemates VICTOREM and AWESOME PLUCK of course had a go at winning this last year as well and both were worthy, PLUCK placing 3rd (beaten within 1L) and VICTOREM not being as keen on the wet conditions 12 months ago. Prevailing dry conditions this year more to his liking and he has lovely options from his draw. 59 but not poorly weighted in this company. NOBLE BOY has trialled just as pleasingly leading in and has been aimed at this for a long long time. The short story with him is that he just doesn’t often lose.
Selections: 1. Victorem, 3. Noble Boy, 11. Awesome Pluck, 8. Handle The Truth
Race 6:
9 can kick out and hold the lead. BRUTAL to set up outside him and HOME OF THE BRAVE (not drawn poorly) might have to do his best to sneak a good spot. The Premiere is the obvious form and should really hold up here. BRUTAL would be well regarded in the Everest if he were there so he is the one to be with here I think. There was just a minor hiccup 2nd-up last prep before he stepped out to longer trips but I doubt there’s any slip-ups from him here. That ties in HOME OF THE BRAVE but there is a risk of a wide sit with him perhaps. DEPRIVE might have to settle too far off good horses to get by them.
Selections: 1. Brutal, 2. Home Of The Brave, 12. Champagne Cuddles, 6. Deprive
Race 7:
The day’s feature sees NATURE STRIP making light work of his wide gate and scooting over to lead. Of course REDZEL and SUNLIGHT may have a few things to say about that but I fancy they relent. The depth is fantastic and so should it always be for a race of this value. That means there will be horses get around here at $21 that are high-graders with a chance. The lone 3YO in the field is YES YES YES and he has ended up enticing me as he drops back from 1400m. First time against this group of horses of course but I fancy he could be up to it. ARCADIA QUEEN has trialled well since winning first-up. No knock SANTA, no knock PIERATA, none REDZEL, ALIZEE etc….
Selections: 12. Yes Yes Yes, 11. Arcadia Queen, 1. Santa Ana Lane, 2. Pierata
Race 8:
2 and 4 the obvious leaders. SAMADOUBT bounced back in pretty good style last start and can hold up here on a drier track. STAMPEDE back from a couple of longer trips (and did race three Saturdays in a row) but he did not give up the ghost last time and is a hardy sort. HAPPY CLAPPER has three G1 placings at this trip but has never won beyond 1600m. He was a long odds-on favourite in it two years ago and beaten (narrowly when settling too far from the front). I would love to see him winning again and cannot resist him in this company..
Selections: 1. Happy Clapper, 2. Samadoubt, 4. Stampede, 3. Life Less Ordinary
Race 5:
1. Victorem (5 stars)
2. Handle The Truth (4 stars)
3. Notation (4 stars)
Race 6:
1. Brutal (5 stars)
2. Home Of The Brave (4 stars)
3. Champagne Cuddles (4 stars)
Race 7:
1. Santa Ana Lane (5 stars)
2. Pierata (4 stars)
3. Arcadia Queen (4 stars)
Race 8:
1. Happy Clapper (5 stars)
2. Samadoubt (4 stars)
3. Life Less Ordinary (4 stars)
Race 5:
VICTOREM (1) Did enough to win two runs back at Eagle Farm and can go through the gears. Could prove to be very difficult to beat. NOBLE BOY (3) Showed promise when winning two runs back at Eagle Farm but back from a break. Should go close. HANDLE THE TRUTH (8) Was all too good winning two runs back at Rosehill and proven performer at this trip. Can be competitive. NOTATION (12) Suited at this course historically. Very competitive this campaign. Exotics hope in this event.
Race 6:
BRUTAL (1) Really dug deep when winning last run at this course and should muster plenty of early toe. Could prove hard to hold out. HOME OF THE BRAVE (2) Has good tactical speed and will be nicely positioned. Although falling back still finished 2nd last start around here and third up from a spell. Winning chance. CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES (12) Almost nabbed a win when 2nd last run at Rosehill. Place chance. DEPRIVE (6) Got the upper hand late when winning three runs back at this venue and easy to come into at the trip. Exotics chance.
Race 7:
SANTA ANA LANE (1) Was the run of the race in the Gilgai when resuming and will improve from that run. Hard to beat. ARCADIA QUEEN (11) Simply outstanding when resuming at Rosehill. Goes close with clear running. PIERATA (2) Can display good finishing speed. Watch out if the pace is on. YES YES YES (12) 3yo stepping up to open class. Huge effort in the Golden Rose and gets a nice weight drop here.
Race 8:
HAPPY CLAPPER (1) Third up from a spell. Ran 3rd last run at this course and looks well graded here. Can win this. SAMADOUBT (2) Was very impressive when winning three runs back here and expecting to settle positively. Going well this preparation. Can have an impact. LIFE LESS ORDINARY (3) Third up. Competitive effort when 3rd last start here. Include in chances. STAMPEDE (4) Did enough to win two runs back at Rosehill but goes up in weight today. Likely to be well placed early. Has each way claims