The following is a survey of Australian racing tips for Derby day this Saturday, November 2. The focus is on the Group racing at Flemington, which features the Victoria Derby (Race 7). Selected races at Rosehill are also covered. This includes the inaugural Golden Eagle (Race 7), which will be the first Australian feature race exclusively for 4YOs, with $7.5m in prize money. More tips and previews will be added as they become available.
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Best bets
Flemington Race 1, No. 4 Zoutori
Flemington Race 2, No. 1 Flit
Flemington Race 3, No. 1 Dalasan
Flemington Race 4, No. 1 Downdraft
Flemington Race 5, No. 2 Melody Belle
Flemington Race 6, No. 2 Bivouac
Flemington Race 7, No. 1 Shadow Hero
Flemington Race 9, No. 4 Pippie
Flemington
Race 1, No.4 Zoutori – 4.5 stars
Race 2, No.5 Vegas Jewel – 4 stars
Race 5, No.2 Melody Belle – BEST BET – 5 stars
Race 9, No.8 Prophet’s Thumb – EACH-WAY – 3.5 stars
Race 7:
1. Shadow Hero
2. Long Jack
3. Thought of That
4. Warning
5. Translator
Best Bet: Shadow Hero ($3.10) – 4.5 stars
Best Roughie: Translator ($34)
Exotic: Trifecta 1-2,3,4,13-2,3,4,13
Quaddie: 1,2,6/1,3/4,5,6,8,9,13,16/1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10,11,12
Unibet – From the Trader’s Desk:
Race 3 #4 Strome – VALUE BET
Race 7 #1 Shadow Hero
Race 8 #1 Pierata – LAY BET
Race 9 #3 Outrageous – BEST BET
Race 6:
BACK – Cosmic Force – Bet to WIN (stake 0.7% of your total bank.)
Race 7:
BACK – Shadow Hero – Bet to WIN (stake 1.5% of your total bank.)
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
Race 6: 1. BIVOUAC 2. Libertini, 3. Microphone, 4. Exceedance
Race 7: 1. SHADOW HERO, 2. Soul Patch, 3. Thought Of That, 4. Warning
Race 7:
1. Shadow Hero
2. Soul Patch
3. Thought Of That
Betfair – Feature Race Reports:
Race 1:
Betting Confidence: Low
Back – #6 Order Of Command
Race 2:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #2 Miami Bound
Race 3:
Betting Confidence: High
Back – #6 Brandenburg; #5 Heirborn
Race 4:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #4 Hush Writer; #6 Patrick Erin
Race 5:
Betting Confidence: Low
Back – #3 Aristia
Race 6:
Betting Confidence: High
Back – #6 Exceedance
Race 7:
Betting Confidence: High
Lay – #1 Shadow Hero
Race 8:
Betting Confidence: Low
Back – #11 Sikandarabad
Race 9:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #2 Tofane
Race 1: Zoutori
Race 2: Miami Bound – each-way
Race 3: Dalasan
Race 4: Downdraft
Race 5: Pohutukawa – each-way
Race 6: Bivouac, saving on Libertini
Race 7: Shadow Hero
Race 8: Chief Ironside and Royal Meeting
Race 9: Pippie
Race 1:
ZOUTORI (4) looks set for this race with the straight six here playing to his strengths so far this campaign. Big winner here fresh and backed that up in a hot race last time. That form has worked out really well and he can make the most of this well-orchestrated opportunity. VIRIDINE (3) is a hard horse to catch but he did run well in the Schillaci last time and this suits. Looks a threat. DEPLOY (5) found his form last time and is capable of giving them plenty to catch if he finds his flow in front. RENEWAL (7) and TYZONE (1) are others to consider.
Race 2:
Little doubt that FLIT (1) is the best filly here. She got herself out of a jam to win the 1000 Guineas last time off a slow tempo. Not sure to improve for the longer trip but her edge in talent offsets that and she should come away with the prize. The big threat is VEGAS JEWEL (5) who impressed at the Valley and then stepped up in trip and class to perform well last time. MIAMI BOUND (2) comes through a stronger 2000m contest where she took on the boys. Effort was fine and she will run well. Looks a solid each way option. FOXBOROUGH (3) disappointed last time but the stable have a great record here and the blinkers go on. Looks a target race.
Race 3:
DALASAN (1) didn’t run right up to his best in the Guineas but he still ran a sound race and did start a clear favourite there. Think the blinkers coming off can be a positive for him – they didn’t seem to do their job at Caulfield – and sure that getting Flemington will be in his favour. GROUNDSWELL (2) beat him home there and was right there with him in the Prelude. Can’t have a great deal between them. His stablemate HEIRBORN (5) ran really well first up from a short spell and can come on to give this a shake. Fitter and every chance to turn the tables on HILO (7) who is in the mix along with BRANDENBURG (6).
Race 4:
DOWNDRAFT (1) was caught out by a slow tempo last week. Just a sprint home there so should have no issue turning around a week later and running well. Great test of stamina will serve him better. THE CHOSEN ONE (8) was okay in a bunched finish to the Caulfield Cup. Liked the strong win that got him there in the Herbert Power and that form gives him a hope against these. YOUNGSTAR (9) stayed well at the end of 2600m at Randwick last time and looks a good chance to turn the tables on HUSH WRITER (4). Both should run well. HAKY (3) was better at Geelong. That effort brings him into the mix.
Race 5:
MELODY BELLE (2) is the star turn in the line up. No horse has won as many Group Ones in New Zealand as her and she arrives here on the back of winning three of them on the bounce. Well placed coming back to mares and at the mile where she races so well. Takes a power of beating. POHUTUKAWA (9) ended up awkwardly placed last time but worked home well from where she was in a race that was dominated on speed. Think she can get a better run this time and take some beating. Her stablemate SAVATIANO (4) won well there and has to be respected off that. FIDELIA (15) will be back and needing things to go her way as always but she is going well and will rattle on home at them. PRINCESS JENNI (7) next in line.
Race 6:
Great race. BIVOUAC (2) had no room when he needed it in the Manikato last week but should have no trouble building his momentum down the straight with a strong tempo on the cards which can see the cream rise to the top. Brilliant Golden Rose winner in Sydney and the one they have to beat. EXCEEDANCE (6) knocked him off on heavy ground before running well behind him in the lead up and the Rose itself. Straight course may play to his strengths, allowing him to keep tabs on them early and let rip at them late. LIBERTINI (12) on the fresh side appeals. She flew first up at 1200m and ran well in high-rating races subsequently to that. Given her chance to freshen up and bounce straight back to her peak now. COSMIC FORCE (5) hits this race on the up and has the talent to mix it with them while MICROPHONE (1) will be fitter for his return behind Cosmic Force. Flew down the straight last season.
Race 7:
SHADOW HERO (1) was dominant when winning the Gloaming and then backed it right up winning the Spring Champion last time. Strong winner of that race and would only have to hold that form out to the longer trip, which looks like suiting, to be the horse to beat. THOUGHT OF THAT (3) also comes off a high-rating win last time. Dominated from the front and ran good time. If he gets his rhythm it will take a good one to peg him back. SOUL PATCH (2) won the other key trial. Strong late in the Vase and there to pick up the pieces if the two big guns fail. WARNING (4) is shaping as a strong stayer and while he lacks the talent of the top picks he should see out the journey well, as can LONG JACK (8) who had plenty in hand winning at Geelong.
Race 8:
CHIEF IRONSIDE (15) didn’t have a lot of luck in the Toorak but found his best form in the Crystal Mile at the Valley last week and looks a big chance on the back of that. Was a bunched finish there but the race still rated well and back against the handicapper he appears well treated. ROYAL MEETING (5) ran well fresh and was off a long break there. Horse with plenty of talent and huge upside. No surprise to see him jump out of the ground second up. CLIFF’S EDGE (7) ran really well behind Chief Ironside last week and can give this a shake on speed from a low draw. High pressure typically suits him. NIGHT’S WATCH (8) didn’t have a perfect run through behind FIERCE IMPACT (6) in the Toorak. Think the pair will both run well here.
Race 9:
PIPPIE (4) has been freshened up after throwng up a poor one last time. Was flying prior to that and this looks a good option for her back at 1100m where her pace is potentially even more lethal than at 1200m. Not a great deal between MANICURE (1) and TOFANE (2) last time and both should run well again here with upside in both of their profiles. Hard to knock HUMMA HUMMA (5) this prep. Two from two and looks sure to be charging at the good tempo late on. PROPHET’S THUMB (8) was awkwardly placed in the run last time. Liked the win prior and no shock to see her prove right up to a race like this. Could add some value to multiples.
Race 1:
8. Kemalpasa (5 stars)
7. Renewal (3 stars)
1. Tyzone (3 stars)
2. Malibu Style (2 stars)
Race 2:
1. Flit (5 stars)
2. Miami Bound (4 stars)
7. Tisane (2 stars)
4. Oriental Lily (2 stars)
Race 3:
1. Dalasan (5 stars)
6. Brandenburg (4 stars)
7. Hilo (2 stars)
2. Groundswell (2 stars)
Race 4:
1. Downdraft (3 stars)
4. Hush Writer (3 stars)
8. The Chosen One (3 stars)
13. Carif (3 stars)
Race 5:
2. Melody Belle (5 stars)
1. Invincibella (4 stars)
12. Baccarat Baby (3 stars)
4. Savatiano (2 stars)
Race 6:
1. Microphone (3 stars)
2. Bivouac (3 stars)
13. Li’l Kontra (3 stars)
5. Cosmic Force (3 stars)
Race 7:
1. Shadow Hero (5 stars)
2. Soul Patch (3 stars)
3. Thought Of That (3 stars)
8. Long Jack (3 stars)
Race 8:
13. Rock (3 stars)
18. Admiral’s Joker (3 stars)
6. Fierce Impact (3 stars)
19. Variation (3 stars)
Race 9:
1. Manicure (3 stars)
5. Humma Humma (3 stars)
12. Spirit’s Choice (3 stars)
2. Tofane (3 stars)
Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:
Race 1:
NOTE: Rail true. Was 9m here October 5 and on-pace/inside lane runners had the advantage. Last meeting with rail true was 14/9 and track played very well. ZOUTORI was a brilliant winner here fresh in fast time then matched motors with world-class Santa Ana Lane with weights dead against him: he had 1kg less than Santa that day and on ratings should have had 10kg less! VIRIDINE flew home at Caulfield/1100m. His 11.04 last 200m was quicker than the subsequent Everest-placed Trekking. 1200m ideal now. TYZONE split Trekking and Viridine in a track-record G1 Stradbroke. ORDER OF COMMAND has a case.
Selections: 4. Zoutori, 3. Viridine, 6. Order Of Command, 1. Tyzone
Race 2:
SPEED: 7,11,12 go forward but others may possie up out to 2000m. FLIT is the class here, she has 58kg but has 34-rating points on her nearest rival and should be giving them plenty more than 3kg! Loved her chase to win the G1 Thousand Guineas. First go 2000m but stable gave a Cox Plate serious consideration so doubt they’re worried about the trip! MIAMI BOUND was even against some smart 3yo males last time, the Moonlight Maid form measured up against the likes of Derby hopeful Soul Patch. VEGAS JEWEL the pick of them from the Ethereal Stks for mine. SILENT SOVEREIGN next.
Selections: 1. Flit, 5. Vegas Jewel, 2. Miami Bound, 6. Silent Sovereign
Race 3:
SPEED: 7, 9 lead with 1, 2, 8, 10 capable of being handy, 4 next? DALASAN worked early from the horror gate in G1 Caulfield Guineas and couldn’t finish off. Drawn better today, he did look coming winner prior when strong late beating home Guineas winner Super Seth and GROUNDSWELL. The latter then turned the tables on him in said G1 and arguably has more upside. KAVALMO is the fresh blood., his maiden win was impressive running fastest last 200m all day (runner-up then won) and his form through Edison (2L off Castelvecchio in Sydney) reads well. MORENO has similar formlines. Place hopes 6, 7, 5
Selections: 1. Dalasan, 2. Groundswell, 11. Kavalmo, 6. Brandenburg
Race 4:
SPEED: 4, 3 may lead 1, 12. 7,13 can be right up there. Not many without a hope here. DOWNDRAFT has 59kg but will be better for Oz debut when every chance on slow speed in MV Cup. SOUND and THE CHOSEN ONE were both only 4L off Mer De Glace in a Caulfield Cup. HAKY was much better at Geelong (with pattern a help). HUSH WRITER bolted in the St Leger but there’s more pressure on paper today. PATRICK ERIN was race-fastest home in that St Leger versus slow speed: the overs? SIR CHARLES ROAD was honest. YOUNGSTAR raced tight at a key stage and CARIF was wide/good. AZURO battled well also.
Selections: 6. Patrick Erin, 7. Sir Charles Road, 1. Downdraft, 13. Carif
Race 5:
SPEED: 4,6,14 go forward with 12 up there also. 11 can sit closer. MELODY BELLE arrives here off three straight G1 wins in NZ, her form can easily be tied in with Cox Plate placed Te Akau Shark and Rondinella who recently placed to key rivals here PRINCESS JENNI then SPANISH REEF. Princess Jenni then went to G1 Toorak and was running on well when her luck ran out, she crossed line with last week’s G2 winner Chief Ironside. FIDELIA was the best closer behind Spanish Reef and Flemington suits her better. POHUTUKAWA wants 1600m now. Ditto ARISTIA. ANGELIC RULER is so genuine. NETTOYER can win!
Selections: 15. Fidelia, 7. Princess Jenni, 10. Nettoyer, 9. Pohutukawa
Race 6:
Outstanding race in an outstanding year for 3YO sprinters in this country. EXCEEDANCE couldn’t quite reel in BIVOUAC and subsequent track record Everest winner Yes Yes Yes in a super-fast Golden Rose, his last 175m (after changing stride) was terrific, he may be able to turn the tables on Bivouac who was clearly the hard luck story in G1 Manikato. The filly LIBERTINI is a superstar herself, back to 1200m here a trip she is unbeaten at, in one of those wins she ran 1-7.93 at Randwick, Yes Yes Yes’ record win was in 1-7.32. COSMIC FORCE a hope. MICROPHONE also. ACCESSION best blowout?
Selections: 6. Exceedance, 2. Bivouac, 12. Libertini, 5. Cosmic Force
Race 7:
SPEED: 3, 11, 10 with 12, 8 handy. SHADOW HERO had similar closing fractions to those of Castelvecchio in G1 Spring Champion last start and was a shade stronger his last 200m. Said runner-up then beat home some star older horses in a Cox Plate. SOUL PATCH’s last 200m was bettered only by impressive winner Super Seth in the Guineas then he went to 2040m with blinkers and smacked them running fifth-fastest last 200m all day and easily beating INDEPENDENT ROAD. That horse was a top 2nd to WARNING here prior, Warning then chased THOUGHT OF THAT, who’s been super-impressive last two in blinkers.
Selections: 1. Shadow Hero, 2. Soul Patch, 3. Thought Of That, 4. Warning
Race 8:
SPEED: 7 leads 10, 14, 15. Add 20 if here. Always a tough race. NIGHT’S WATCH was unlucky in G1 Toorak for mine. Sure he saved ground but he had his momentum affected on a few occasions then rushed late for second to FIERCE IMPACT, who did win well and was only second up. He was pipped by Epsom winner Kolding prior. From that Epsom STAR OF THE SEAS was a solid third with Te Akau Shark (Cox Plate placed) ahead of him. ROCK followed the Shark and while no match he worked home well. CASCADIAN and ROYAL MEETING need luck now. Many other hopes!
Selections: 8. Night’s Watch, 6. Fierce Impact, 14. Star Of The Seas, 13. Rock
Race 9:
PIPPIE was three wins from three starts this prep up until her last start when faded but she was not 100% right that day, freshened here she will give a great sight. MANICURE beat her then was bloused by TOFANE who was ridden too warm two-back, her two wins either side of that (ridden colder) have been excellent, she ran fastest last 200m of the day in both those wins. GIFT OF POWER was very wide and ran well there. SWEET SCANDAL was very genuine and only 2nd-up. RESIN didn’t have much luck last time. HUMMA HUMMA flew from the back latest, these two draw in today so? MISS IANO best blowout?
Selections: 4. Pippie, 2. Tofane, 7. Gift Of Power, 1. Manicure
Race 1:
Zoutori (5 stars)
Viridine (2 stars)
Deploy (4 stars)
Race 2:
Flit (5 stars)
Vegas Jewel (5 stars)
Miami Bound (4 stars)
Race 3:
Dalasan (5 stars)
Groundswell (5 stars)
Heirborn (4 stars)
Race 4:
Downdraft (5 stars)
The Chosen One (5 stars)
Youngstar (4 stars)
Race 5:
Melody Belle (5 stars)
Pohutukawa (5 stars)
Savatiano (4 stars)
Race 6:
Bivouac (5 stars)
Exceedance (4 stars)
Libertini (5 stars)
Race 8:
Chief Ironside (5 stars)
Royal Meeting (4 stars)
Cliff’s Edge (3 stars)
Race 9:
Pippie (5 stars)
Manicure (5 stars)
Tofane (4 stars)
Race 1:
ZOUTORI (4) Third up from a spell. Chimed in with a win two runs back at this course and suited at this distance in the past. Going the right way and will give the others something to chase today. VIRIDINE (3) Has a nice turn of foot. Chased well when 4th last start at Caulfield and third up. Will go well here. ORDER OF COMMAND (6) Finishes off strongly. Made up considerable ground when 5th last start at Caulfield and suited at this trip in the past. Could sneak a place. RENEWAL (7) Having third run back from a break. Brave effort to win two runs back at Caulfield and strong performer at this trip in the past. Exotics chance.
Race 2:
FLIT (1) Fought on well to win last run at Caulfield but going up in weight here. Expected to be flashing home. Can dominate here and win. VEGAS JEWEL (5) Winner two runs back at Moonee Valley but up in class. Has a great burst of speed late. Appears well in this. MIAMI BOUND (2) Solid effort when winning three runs back at Bendigo. Very competitive this preparation. Place wouldn’t shock. FOXBOROUGH (3) Snuck in a place when 3rd last start at Newcastle but rising in grade. Must be included and a solid value runner.
Race 3:
GROUNDSWELL (2) Solid win three runs back at Geelong and going down in class. Should be going forward early. Hard to hold out. DALASAN (1) Finished on top three runs back around here and goes down in class. Tracking very well this campaign. One of the better chances. HEIRBORN (5) Second up. Was fighting out the finish when winning two runs back at this venue but up in class. Must respect in this event. HILO (7) Got the prize when winning three runs back at Geelong but facing a stronger class. Racing consistently since returning from a break. Suited here.
Race 4:
DOWNDRAFT (1) Having second run back from a break. Comprehensive victory when winning three runs back at Down Royal and will find this grade easier. Among better hopes. HUSH WRITER (4) Finished on top last time at Randwick and should be going forward early. Racing consistently this campaign. Looks promising in this race. THE CHOSEN ONE (8) Brave effort to win two runs back at Caulfield and goes down in class. Will be trying to topple them late. Can give this a shake. HAKY (3) Was outmuscled when 3rd last run at Geelong. Use betting as best guide
Race 5:
MELODY BELLE (2) NZ Triple Crown winner who just keeps getting better. If she finds cover from the wide draw she should go close. POHUTUKAWA (9) Gets a nice enough draw here and can sprint well. Winning chance. PRINCESS JENNI (7) Drops back to her own sex here and is already a Group 1 winner. Has the ability. SAVATIANO (4) Strong performance in the Tristarc. Chance at odds.
Race 6:
BIVOUAC (2) Can completely forget his run in the Manikato. Should get a much better run today, win bet. EXCEEDANCE (6) Did beat Bivouac first up by 2L. Could win again. LIBERTINI (12) Honest effort in the Tea Rose and has been freshened up since that run. Keep safe. COSMIC FORCE (5) Showed promise when winning the Roman Consul and hard to fault at this trip. Each way.
Race 7:
SHADOW HERO (1) Brilliant effort when beating Castelvecchio in the Spring Champion Stakes. Rates well on top. THOUGHT OF THAT (3) Looks the likely leader from the inside draw. Will give them something to chase down. SOUL PATCH (2) Backing up from strong Moonee Valley win. Can repeat the dose. WARNING (4) Good effort at Caulfield and should appreciate the step up in trip. Watch betting.
Race 8:
NIGHT’S WATCH (8) Eye catching run in the Toorak and should get a better run this time around. Live chance. FIERCE IMPACT (6) Brilliant win last start at Caulfield. Has work to do from the wide gate but not out of this. ROCK (13) Won first three races this prep before big effort when 5th in the Epsom. Can win this. STAR OF THE SEAS (14) Honest performance when 3rd in the Epsom. Each way.
Race 9:
PIPPIE (4) Scored a victory two runs back at Caulfield and has plenty of early speed. Has been a model of consistency since coming back from a spell. Rates a winning chance. MANICURE (1) Third up. Left nothing to chance when winning two runs back at Caulfield. One of the major players. TOFANE (2) Scored a victory last start at Caulfield. Going well this preparation winning 2 from 4 attempts. Can surprise and by no means out of it. HUMMA HUMMA (5) Got the prize when winning last time at Caulfield and third up from a break. Going well this preparation winning 2 from as many attempts. Can take this out.
Rosehill
Race 4, No.2 Special Reward – 4 stars
Race 6, No.7 Chapada – 3.5 stars
Race 8, No.1 Pierata – 4 stars
Race 7:
1. Brutal
2. Arcadia Queen
3. The Inevitable
4. Kolding
5. Gem Song
Top Pick: Brutal ($5.00) – 3.5 stars
Best Roughie: Gem Song ($61)
Exotic: Trifecta 1,15 – 1,3,4,5,15 – 1,2,3,4,5,15,17
Quaddie: 7,10,13,15/1,3,15/1/3,6,7,8,10,11,12
Unibet – From the Trader’s Desk:
Race 7 #1 Brutal
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
Race 7: 1. CLASSIQUE LEGEND, 2. The Inevitable, 3. Arcadia Queen, 4. Kolding
Race 7:
1. Brutal
2. Kolding
3. Arcadia Queen
Race 7: Arcadia Queen
Race 7:
ARCADIA QUEEN (15) won very well on debut for the Chris Waller stable before sent out favourite in the Everest. Failed to fire there, however she appears much better placed getting out to 1500m. Drawn to get a lovely run and anywhere near her peak and she is sure to take plenty of beating. KOLDING (3) held off the challenge of Te Akau Shark last start to win the Epsom and love him kept fresh (28 days). Looked very good at the trials and appears ready to raise the bar again. Major threat. BRUTAL (1) was simply out-sprinted in the Sydney Stakes last start and is much better suited here. Expect sharp improvement. CLASSIQUE LEGEND (2) had no luck last start and obviously commands respect.
Race 7:
14. Sunlight (3 stars)
1. Brutal (3 stars)
4. The Inevitable (3 stars)
15. Arcadia Queen (3 stars)
Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:
Race 7:
Here’s the big one of the day and it is a terrific field that has fronted up. 14 and 1 might want to cross over from wide out. 15 and 16 set up handy and KOLDING too has the chance to be stalking sweetly. He’s the tip from me. An impressive Epsom winner under a light weight, I do think he can match these at the set weights and take another step. He has trialled as you would want to see him since. THE INEVITABLE simply doesn’t lose much but this is his biggest test obviously. Gun run for him as well? BRUTAL rose to the 1500m last prep and ran 2nd to Winx. That’s still the best form going around in Australia. FASIKA not hopeless. CLASSIQUE LEGEND was good through the line in the Everest.
Selections: 3. Kolding, 4. The Inevitable, 1. Brutal, 17. Fasika
Race 7:
ARCADIA QUEEN (15) Unsuited by the tempo and trip in The Everest but can easily bounce back here. Rates highly. BRUTAL (1) Racing well since returning from a spell. Has the ability. CLASSIQUE LEGEND (2) Stuck on well enough in The Everest. Each way. KOLDING (3) Brilliant when winning the Epsom Hadicap and drawn well here. Could make it three in a row.