The following is a survey of tips for the 2019 Melbourne Cup. This includes a survey of analyst comments for each runner.
We have also published a survey of Flemington betting tips for the rest of the race card on Tuesday (Races 1-6, & 8-10).
As of 1 PM on Monday, Mer De Glace is the best backed horse with Sportsbet, holding 30% of all money staked, ahead of Finche and Vow And Declare.
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Melbourne Cup Tips
1. Vow And Declare – 4 stars
2. Constantinople
3. Prince Of Arran
4. Il Paradiso
5. Surprise Baby
BetEasy – Melbourne Cup Video Preview:
Dr Turf’s top four:
No. 11 Finche
No. 1 Cross Counter
No. 20 Il Paradiso
No. 23 Vow And Declare
Clancey’s top four:
No. 19 Constantinople
No. 6 Hunting Horn
No. 20 Il Paradiso
No. 1 Cross Counter
Sharkie’s top four:
No. 18 Suprise Baby
No. 7 Latrobe
No. 2 Mer De Glace
No. 11 Finche
Daily Telegraph – Fast form and verdict:
1. Finche
2. Vow And Declare
3. Prince Of Arran (provided we do not see too much more rain)
1. MER DE GLACE
2. FINCHE
3. VOW AND DECLARE
4. CONSTANTINOPLE
BEST ROUGHIE: MUSTAJEER
Fox Sports – Trevor Marshallsea:
1. CONSTANTINOPLE
2. PRINCE OF ARRAN
3. FINCHE
4. CROSS COUNTER
BEST ROUGHIE: YOUNGSTAR
Winner: Prince of Arran
First 4 Selections: 12 Prince of Arran, 5 Southern France, 19 Constantinople, 2 Mer De Glace
Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:
BACK – Mer De Glace for 2 units
BACK – Dutch 1 (Cross Counter), 3 (Master of Reality), 5 (Southern France) and 7 (Latrobe) at the effective price of $5 for 2 Units
BACK – Vow and Declare – Bet to WIN (stake 0.5% of your total bank.)
BACK – Downdraft – Bet to WIN (stake 0.4% of your total bank.)
Betfair – Feature Race Reports:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #20 Il Paradiso; #19 Constantinople; #5 Southern France
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
1.DOWNDRAFT, 2. Vow And Declare, 3. Cross Counter, 4. Finche
Race 7: Constantinople, multiples with 20 (Il Paradiso), 18 (Surprise Baby), 14 (Downdraft), 15 (Magic Wand)
Race 7:
2. Mer De Glace (5 stars)
15. Magic Wand (4 stars)
8. Mustajeer (2 stars)
1. Cross Counter (2 stars)
Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:
Race 7:
An older and more acclimatised FINCHE can give Chris Waller his first Melbourne Cup winner. He finished a solid 4th to CROSS COUNTER (chance again) last year. His perfect prep was rounded off with a strong 5th in the Caulfield Cup after having a wide run. VOW AND DECLARE (natural stayer) and SURPRISE BABY (untapped) are great local hopes. Flemington 3200m will suit both. PRINCE OF ARRAN was 3rd here last year backing up from the Saturday. No need to back up this year. That could be the key. CONSTANTINOPLE was good in the Caul Cup. IL PARADISO, TWILIGHT PAYMENT and RAYMOND TUSK were the imports that appealed but could go on….
Selections: 11. Finche, 23. Vow And Declare, 12. Prince Of Arran, 18. Surprise Baby
Race 7:
1. Mer De Glace (5 stars)
2. Constantinople (4 stars)
3. Vow And Declare (3 stars)
Race 7:
MER DE GLACE (2) Was far too good when winning the Caulfield Cup last start. Can do the double. CONSTANTINOPLE (19) Should have finished a lot closer last start and gets a much better barrier today. Rates well. FINCHE (11) Huge effort at Caulfield when three wide the trip. Should get a better run here. VOW AND DECLARE (23) Produced an eye catcher last start and looks well weighted. Each way.
Runner Comments
1. Cross Counter
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: William Buick
Weight: 57.5kg
Barrier: 5
Odds: $13
Win distances: 1740m (1), 1905m (1), 2406m (1), 2412m (1), 3200m (2)
BetEasy – The Wolf:
Impressive 2018 winner who goes up 6.5kgs from last year’s weight. His 2019 staying form just behind leading European stayer Stradivarius has been sound, but his weight in comparison to others here makes it difficult for him to win again. Genuine class stayer who The Wolf still thinks is a strong top ten chance despite weight differentials and worth considering for multiples.
Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:
The Melbourne Cup winner of 2018 and the defending champ could be set to peak in this once again. This stable now know how to set him for this race and his recent performances have been impressive enough to see him in this once again
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
Super stayer who stormed home from a mile back to win this race with 51kg last year. And he has improved since then. Has been racing the very best long-distance stayers in Europe, probably the world of late and is holding his own. Drawn perfectly here. He should get back to be running about 7th all the way and we know he loves this track, this trip and can come with a powerful burst. Big, big show!
Betfair – Runner Comments:
Impressive in recent runs. Freshened for 51 days. Latest run 4 of 10 at Curragh in the G1 Irish St. Leger on Sep 15 over 2816m, 4 len behind Search For A Song carrying 61kg at $2.50. Before that 3 of 8 at Goodwood in the G1 Goodwood Cup on in Jul over 3219m, 2.25 len behind Stradivarius with 61kg at $4.00. Defending champion who could be set to peak at the right time again.
Unibet – Runner Comments:
2018 winner of this race. Good effort in the Irish St. Leger at Curragh when 4th by 3.95L. Another win wouldn’t shock.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments:
Back from a let-up. Wasn’t all that far away at Ire – Curragh last time out. Suited over this distance. Rough chance for minors.
2. Mer De Glace
Trainer: Hisahi Shimizu
Jockey: Damian Lane
Weight: 56kg
Barrier: 2
Odds: $6.50
Win distances: 2000m (5), 2200m (2), 2400m (1)
BetEasy – The Wolf:
Won the 2019 Caulfield Cup in emphatic fashion at first attempt beyond 2200m. His sire (Rulership) was a middle distance galloper so there is a query on him over the 3200m and The Wolf is prepared to take him on.
Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:
Second-up today and going for seven on the trot. Landed the Caulfield Cup from the back of the field showing an electrifying turn of foot. Drawn to sit a little closer and if he gets a crack at them he will be mighty hard to hold off.
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
This bloke is a real contender. He looks one of the ones to beat. Has proven he can run sensational middle distance times and took that ability into the 2400m Caulfield Cup. He dashed clear with 250m to go and hung tough to win. Is extremely good. He has won 8 of his 18 starts and placed a further 7 times. If there is a chink in his armour it is an ability to stay 3200m. He’s not tried but his brilliance cannot be denied.
Betfair – Runner Comments:
Second-up today. Last run won by 1 len (shifted in near 200m; rider charged with careless riding) Caulfield G1 Caulfield Cup Oct 19 over 2400m defeating Vow And Declare carrying 55.5kg at $8.00. At only start last preparation won by a neck Kokura G3 Kokura Kinen in Aug over 2000m defeating Cadenas with 57.5kg at $2.60. Landed the Caulfield Cup after a string of wins in Japan. Big chance.
Unibet – Runner Comments:
Second up from a break. Sprinted well when winning the Caulfield Cup by 1L last start. Can win again.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments:
Shooting for 7 wins in a row. Timed run to perfection to score at Caulfield at latest. Drawn well. Include among the better chances.
3. Master Of Reality
Trainer: Joseph O’brien
Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Weight: 55.5kg
Barrier: 1
Odds: $17
Win distances: 2400m (2), 2816m (1)
BetEasy – The Wolf:
Trained by the same trainer as the 2017 winner (Rekindling), this 4yo Frankel gelding has been competitive around Southern France, Mustajeer, Twilight Payment and even Cross Counter in 2800m races this year, including on soft going. However, he came into his own in the Ascot Cup (4000m, June 2019) when he beat Cross Counter home as a rank outsider (66-1) and finished 1L behind the superstar Stradivarius. May lack the tactical speed of some others but should at least run out a genuine 3200m. Outside chance.
Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:
Resumes off a 51-day letup and rates strongly on his best form. Beat home Cross Counter and Raymond Tusk in the Ascot Gold Cup. A strongly run 3200m could see him feature here.
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
Is on his day a powerhouse stayer and his form under big weights against the best long-distance stayers in the world has been sound. Has beaten Cross Counter home for instance as well as Mustajeer and Southern France recently. He gets the rails draw and he comes into this very fit and ready to fire up. Can stay all day. Could be the dark horse.
Betfair – Runner Comments:
Useful gelding. Resumes off a 51 day letup. Latest outing 5 of 10 at Curragh in the G1 Irish St. Leger on Sep 15 over 2816m, 4 len behind Search For A Song carrying 61kg at $15.00. The run before that 3 in a small field at Curragh in the G3 St Leger Trial on in Aug over 2816m, 4 len behind Southern France carrying 62kg at $4.00. Rates strongly and his best form can see him in the finish.
Unibet – Runner Comments:
First up today. Even effort when 5th by 4.05L in the Irish St. Leger. Watch betting.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments:
Returning from let-up. Fair effort without threatening at Ire – Curragh last start. Place appeal only.
4. Mirage Dancer
Trainer: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young
Jockey: Ben Melham
Weight: 55.5kg
Barrier: 13
Odds: $31
Win distances: 1414m (1), 2412m (3)
BetEasy – The Wolf:
This 5yo son of Frankel ran well in the Caulfield Cup, finishing 3rd, however 12 of his 17 starts have been over 2400m and he has never run further than that. Avoided the interference at Caulfield and stuck on gamely, but several others shape as being more likely to run out a stronger two miles.
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
Honest and talented former English stayer. Came home strongly for 3rd in the recent Gr 1 Caulfield Cup and gave the impression that this trip would suit. Should settle about midfield and that one Aussie run will have him cherry-ripe. Meets Mer de Glace a kilo better for being beaten just on a length and may be a better long-distance stayer.
Betfair – Runner Comments:
Racing second-up today. First-up after three months made some head-way from midfield; 3 of 18 (slowly away; checked near 200m; became unbalanced) at Caulfield in the G1 Caulfield Cup on Oct 19 over 2400m, 1.2 len behind Mer De Glace carrying 56kg at $16.00. Previously second-up 3 of 8 at Ascot in the G2 Hardwicke Stks on in Jun over 2406m, 1.5 len behind Defoe carrying 57.5kg at $7.00. Deserves some respect of his Caulfield Cup placing.
Unibet – Runner Comments:
Second run here. Good run resuming when 3rd by 1.2L in the Caulfield Cup. Could make the frame.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments:
Others better.
5. Southern France
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Weight: 55.5kg
Barrier: 14
Odds: $26
Win distances: 2414m (1), 2615m (1), 2816m (1)
BetEasy – The Wolf:
A 4yo who brings strong albeit mixed form to Australia and is now in the hands of Ciaron Maher & David Eustace. He held on for 3rd at equal weights in last year’s English St Leger, beating Cross Counter, Master of Reality & Southern France there. Failed in his only 3200m run in the Goodwood Cup (Cross Counter 7L ahead of him). Can mix his form, but has been competitive with a few of the internationals. A genuine 3200m is a query.
Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:
Leaving the Aidan O’Brien yard to join the Maher and Eustace stable. Recent form impressive, defeated Downdraft carrying 61kg in the G3 St Leger Trial in Aug over 2816m. Looks good form for this.
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
Solid grinding, dour English stayer who was just 2 lengths behind Twilight Payment in a Gr 2 at The Curragh. Backed that up with a 4th in the Gr 1 Goodwood Cup, but was behind Cross Counter, then stormed home to easily beat last start winner Downdraft and Master Of Reality at The Curragh. Is a very high-class stayer and should be running on.
Betfair – Runner Comments:
Recent form impressive for this race. Freshened for 51 days. Latest outing 3 of 10 at Curragh in the G1 Irish St. Leger on Sep 15 over 2816m, 3.75 len behind Search For A Song with 61kg at $10.00. The race before that won by 2 len Curragh G3 St Leger Trial in Aug over 2816m defeating Downdraft carrying 61kg at $3.50. Brings some decent form lines. Each way chance.
Unibet – Runner Comments:
UK import having first start in Australia. Fair effort when 3rd by 3.75L in the Irish St. Leger. Monitor the market.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments:
Back from a let-up. First run in Australia. Formerly with A O’Brien. Faces a task.
6. Hunting Horn
Trainer: Aidan O’brien
Jockey: Seamie Heffernan
Weight: 55kg
Barrier: 11
Odds: $31
Win distances: 2004m (1), 2012m (1), 2500m (1)
BetEasy – The Wolf:
Compact and fit European pacemaker who has been brought to Australia by Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien for a throw at the stumps. Lovely Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) win when suited at the weights, but several others appeal more.
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
This bloke surprised with the way he accelerated at Moonee Valley to win Aussie debut comfortably beating subsequent Group winner Downdraft home. Steps up to the long-distance here but the way he joined in at The Valley suggests he might be well up to it. Has claims.
Betfair – Runner Comments:
Latest run won by 1.3 len Moonee Valley G2 M. Valley Cup Oct 26 over 2500m defeating Mr Quickie carrying 56kg at $4.30. Before that ran last of 8 at Leopardstown in the G1 Irish Champion on Sep 14 over 2012m, 7.5 len behind Magical with 60.5kg at $67.00. Moonee Valley Cup winner but will need to take another step up.
Unibet – Runner Comments:
Fitter for first up run. Good Australian debut when winning the Moonee Valley Cup by 1.25L last time out. This is tougher.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments:
Tougher now. Not fancied.
7. Latrobe
Trainer: Joseph O’brien
Jockey: James Mcdonald
Weight: 55kg
Barrier: 22
Odds: $23
Win distances: 2414m (3)
BetEasy – The Wolf:
Latrobe is another who 2017 winning trainer Joseph O’Brien puts the final polish on. He ran 5L 6th behind Search for a Song in the Irish St Leger and his recent form closely aligns with Twilight Payment, so there should not be such a price differential between them. He is another who has not run beyond 2800m and whilst Team Williams rates him highly, The Wolf does not see him as a genuine winning chance.
Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:
Best Timeform Rating run of 119 was at Flemington last year over 2000m in The Mackinnon. Wide draw but something about this horse has always made me think he’d be a Cups contender. Worth some thought.
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
Irish stayer who came here last year and was Gr 1 placed in the McKinnon Stakes over 2000m. His form is solid back home since then in tough races although was a bit plain when 6th in the Gr 1 Irish St Leger last start. Drawn poorly too here so may be tested.
Betfair – Runner Comments:
Useful entire. Freshened for 51 days. Latest start 6 of 10 at Curragh in the G1 Irish St. Leger on Sep 15 over 2816m, 5.5 len behind Search For A Song carrying 61kg at $8.00. The start before that won by 0.75 len Leopardstown G3 Ballyroan Stks in Aug over 2414m defeating Guaranteed with 61kg at $1.90. Wide draw but at his best he can be in the finish.
Unibet – Runner Comments:
Second Australian spring carnival. Finished off just fairly when 6th beaten 5.5L in the Irish St. Leger. Trifecta play.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments:
Returning from let-up. Average effort in same company at Ire – Curragh last start. Awkwardly drawn. Not keen.
8. Mustajeer
Trainer: Kris Lees
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Weight: 55kg
Barrier: 6
Odds: $18
Win distances: 1609m (1), 2012m (1), 2387m (1), 2787m (1)
BetEasy – The Wolf:
Impressive winner of the Ebor (2800m) in August 2019. The 2017 Melbourne Cup runner up Heartbreak City was an Ebor winner that year and it has in the recent past been a useful form reference. He ran 2L 6th in the Caulfield Cup, but did not cop the interference of several other runners, including a few who finished ahead of him. Outside chance of running top 5, but The Wolf would be surprised if he won.
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
This old boy is interesting. He can run all day and has a good long-distance form in Ireland against many of these. At Aussie debut was wide and back yet ran home very strongly when beaten less than 2 lengths in the Caulfield Cup. And meets the winner 1kg better. Perfectly drawn this time.
Betfair – Runner Comments:
Useful gelding. Latest start settled back and ran on when 6 of 18 at Caulfield in the G1 Caulfield Cup on Oct 19 over 2400m, 1.8 len behind Mer De Glace carrying 55.5kg at $12.00. The start before that won by 0.75 len York Ebor Hcp (C2) in Aug over 2787m defeating Red Galileo carrying 59.5kg at $17.00. His Ebor win gives him a chance to feature.
Unibet – Runner Comments:
Second up from a spell. Made up good ground when 6th beaten 1.8L in the Caulfield Cup. Value play.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments:
Worked home okay to finish close to placegetters last outing. Good win two starts back at G B – York. Outside chance for multiples.
9. Rostropovich
Trainer: David & Ben Hayes & Tom Dabernig
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Weight: 55kg
Barrier: 12
Odds: $61
Win distances: 1408m (2), 2076m (1), 2414m (1)
BetEasy – The Wolf:
Ran 5th in last year’s race but is not tracking anywhere nearly as well this year. It is an emphatic ‘no’ from the Wolf.
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
Ran on gamely with 51kg for 5th in this race last year. But in 4 subsequent outings hasn’t fired a shot and this looks beyond him.
Betfair – Runner Comments:
Latest run wide early stages and checked near 150m; 16 of 18 at Caulfield in the G1 Caulfield Cup on Oct 19 over 2400m, 7.25 len behind Mer De Glace carrying 55.5kg at $31.00. Before that overraced throughout; 9 of 11 at this track in the G1 Turnbull Stakes on Oct 5 over 2000m, 4.5 len behind Kings Will Dream with 55kg at $12.00. Looks tested on recent runs.
Unibet – Runner Comments:
Yet to fire this campaign. Poor performance when 16th by 7.1L in the Caulfield Cup. Cannot have in this.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments:
Couldn’t show a turn of foot this grade at Caulfield last time out. Looking elsewhere.
10. Twilight Payment
Trainer: Joseph O’brien
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Weight: 55kg
Barrier: 19
Odds: $71
Win distances: 2414m (1), 2816m (3), 3219m (1)
BetEasy – The Wolf:
The 6yo Teofilo gelding finished 7th (6L) in a genuinely run G1 Irish St Leger. Beat the more fancied Latrobe, Southern France and Mustajeer in the Curragh Cup (2800m). He is having his 5th start in 2019 only and has been mixing it with many of these but is a clear query over 3200m, especially if there is any genuine pace in the race. No.
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
Has outstanding long-distance staying form and in a Melbourne Cup-winning stable. Has beaten the likes of Latrobe carrying 62kg so should find this to his liking. Bound to be dashing late.
Betfair – Runner Comments:
Second-up today. Freshened for 51 days. First-up after three months 7 of 10 at Curragh in the G1 Irish St. Leger on Sep 15 over 2816m, 6.25 len behind Search For A Song carrying 61kg at $15.00. Previously second-up 4 of 9 at Navan in the G3 Vintage Crop on in Apr over 2816m, 1.9 len behind Master Of Reality with 59kg at $8.00.Unlikely to be winning.
Unibet – Runner Comments:
First local run. Whacked away when 7th beaten 6.34L in the Irish St. Leger. Appears safely held.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments:
Back from a let-up. Just battled home this level at Ire – Curragh at latest. Hard to recommend.
11. Finche
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Kerrin Mcevoy
Weight: 54kg
Barrier: 4
Odds: $9.50
Win distances: 1600m (1), 2000m (2), 2500m (1)
BetEasy – The Wolf:
Returned as a gelding in 2019, this Frankel 6yo has had a solid lead-up after his 4th in the 2018 race. Ran a strong 2nd in the Turnbull before a sound 4th in the Caulfield Cup after racing wide throughout. Can’t really fault his preparation, one to include in wider multiples.
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
Here’s a horse coming good at precisely the right time. Ran the race of his life last year when 4th in this race. Loomed to win and tired the last 100m. Last start, again loomed up to win after sitting wide all the wide the Caulfield Cup and was a strong, close 5th. Last start was an enormous effort. Big danger.
Betfair – Runner Comments:
Useful gelding. Latest run raced three wide; 5 of 18 at Caulfield in the G1 Caulfield Cup on Oct 19 over 2400m, 1.6 len behind Mer De Glace carrying 54.5kg at $7.50. The race before that 2 of 11 at this track in the G1 Turnbull Stakes on Oct 5 over 2000m, nose behind Kings Will Dream carrying 55kg at $5.50. Good effort last time and his Turnbull Stakes run at this course was full of merit. Winning chance.
Unibet – Runner Comments:
Racing in good form this time in. Went huge when 5th by 1.6L in the Caulfield Cup after being wide for the entire trip. Live chance.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments:
Wasn’t all that far away at Caulfield last start. Gets in light. Good draw. Keep safe.
12. Prince Of Arran
Trainer: Charlie Fellowes
Jockey: Michael Walker
Weight: 54kg
Barrier: 8
Odds: $20
Win distances: 1609m (1), 2213m (1), 2400m (1), 2414m (1), 2500m (1), 3200m (1)
BetEasy – The Wolf:
Thriving in our racing conditions, as indoctrinated ‘Aussie’ Red Cadeaux did for several years here. Two wins, a 2nd and a 3rd from four local starts in total and he drops 4kgs from his Geelong Cup win. Gets 5.5kgs in his favour from Cross Counter from last year’s race. An irresistible lightweight chance and a value each way bet.
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
What a good horse. And he loves Australia. Ran 3rd in this race last year coming home very hard. Looks to be an even better racehorse this time around winning last start in the Geelong Cup. That race has always proven a terrific lead-up race to this. Can stay all day and has the right weight and gate.
Betfair – Runner Comments:
Useful gelding. Latest run favourite; tracked the speed and boxed on steadily; won by a head Geelong G3 Geelong Cup Oct 23 over 2400m defeating True Self carrying 58kg at $4.30. Before that slowly away; 2 of 13 at Caulfield in the G2 Herbert Power on Oct 12 over 2400m, 0.5 len behind The Chosen One carrying 58kg at $8.50. Always races well in Australia and can’t be dismissed.
Unibet – Runner Comments:
Loves racing over here. Another strong effort when winning the Geelong Cup by 0.2L. Place chance at the least.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments:
Rising in grade. Prefer others.
13. Raymond Tusk
Trainer: Richard Hannon
Jockey: Jamie Spencer
Weight: 54kg
Barrier: 3
Odds: $15
Win distances: 1609m (1), 2227m (1), 2400m (1)
BetEasy – The Wolf:
The 4yo ran 2L 4th behind Mustajeer in the Ebor, but carried 60.5kgs. Gets a 2kgs swing on Mustajeer from that race. Before that, he finished 8.5L behind Stradivarius in the Ascot Cup (4000m). He’s pssibly a little short on class for this, but he drops a massive weight from the Ebor and could run a bold race. However, a win would surprise.
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
Fascinating big horse. Comes into this really, really well at the weights. Is another smart European with good form against the best long-distance stayers in the world. Can stay all day and has drawn the perfect gate. Watch the betting as they may come for this guy.
Betfair – Runner Comments:
Resuming after a break; only had one start last preparation 4 of 22 at York Ebor Hcp (C2) on in Aug over 2787m, 2 len behind Mustajeer carrying 61kg at $17.00. First up last campaign 2 of 7 at Ascot in the G3 Sagaro Stakes on in May over 3209m, 3.25 len behind Dee Ex Bee with 60kg at $21.00. Looks well weighted through a good effort in the Ebor. Contender.
Unibet – Runner Comments:
Freshened up since last appearance. Made up a stack of ground when 4th beaten 2L in the Ebor Handicap at York. Each way claims.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments:
Returning from let-up. Gave good account under 61kg at G B – York last time out. Only a place chance.
14. Downdraft
Trainer: Joseph O’brien
Jockey: John Allen
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 15
Odds: $17
Win distances: 1408m (1), 2012m (2), 2414m (2), 2500m (1), 2816m (1)
BetEasy – The Wolf:
The 4yo ran home strongly in the Lexus to gain his spot with style and he now drops 5.5kgs from that. He ran 3rd in the Moonee Valley Cup after leading and has not run beyond 2800m. Carries good form into the race, but a win would surprise.
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
Bred to be a stayer. Looks like a stayer and is in spectacular, career-best form. On pace and far, far too good on Saturday in the Hotham, which has always been a superb lead-up to this. My fear is he will be used up from this gate as a bit of a pacemaker. But there is no doubt he is weighted to win this race and his win on Saturday was dominant.
Betfair – Runner Comments:
Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up sat on the pace then 3 of 8 at Moonee Valley in the G2 M. Valley Cup on Oct 26 over 2500m, 1.6 len behind Hunting Horn with 56.5kg at $4.00. Second run from a spell favourite; won by 1.5 len this track G3 Hotham Stakes Nov 2 over 2500m on rain affected going defeating Carif with 59kg at $5.50. Third run in 10 days but he has claims off his Hotham win on Saturday.
Unibet – Runner Comments:
On a quick turn around. Very soft win in the Lexus Stakes by 1.5L. Looks suited here.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments:
Reeled them in easily to salute here at latest. Place makes best appeal.
15. Magic Wand
Trainer: Aidan O’brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 24
Odds: $23
Win distances: 2281m (1), 2406m (1)
BetEasy – The Wolf:
High quality Galileo mare who ran a game 4th in the Cox Plate after leading. Has been unimpressive in two efforts at 2400m and has not run further. May run two miles on breeding, but she looks a clear distance query despite her obvious class. She has also not had a proper spell in 2019 and now with barrier 24, The Wolf cannot have her winning this.
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
She is very smart on her day and is a very fast mare. Led them up in the recent Cox Plate and was still battling away at the end for 4th. This is a massive step up in trip and there are a few who like to drive forward early so she might be out of her comfort zone a long way from home. Will have to work hard from gate rise from this horror draw. Saying that, she’s a Ballydoyle star so should be very fit.
Betfair – Runner Comments:
Recent form hard to fault. Latest outing began awkwardly and hung out on straightening; raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 4 of 14 at Moonee Valley in the G1 W S Cox Plate on Oct 26 over 2040m, 4 len behind Lys Gracieux carrying 57kg at $9.00. The race before that 2 of 8 at Leopardstown in the G1 Irish Champion on Sep 14 over 2012m, 2.25 len behind Magical with 59kg at $21.00. Brave in the Cox Plate. Could sneak a place.
Unibet – Runner Comments:
Likely to benefit from first up run. Decent first up run in the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley when 4th by 3.9L. Could improve from that effort.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments:
Drawn off the track. Doesn’t look likely.
16. Neufbosc
Trainer: David & Ben Hayes & Tom Dabernig
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 23
Odds: $151
Win distances: 1900m (1), 2400m (2)
BetEasy – The Wolf:
His 2019 Australian form has been seriously underwhelming after some promising European efforts last year. Wouldn’t win if he started on Monday from the 2500m.
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
Has not found any worthwhile form since coming to Australia 6 starts back. No.
Betfair – Runner Comments:
Latest run began awkwardly; with blinkers first time; 9 of 11 at Geelong in the G3 Geelong Cup on Oct 23 over 2400m, 4.75 len behind Prince Of Arran with 58kg at $31.00. The run before that began awkwardly and checked near 600m; second last of 14 at Randwick in the G1 Metropolitan on Oct 5 over 2400m, on a slow track; 30 len behind Come Play With Me with 55.5kg at $11.00. Not racing well enough.
Unibet – Runner Comments:
Hasn’t shown anything this prep. Average effort when 9th beaten 4.85L in the Geelong Cup. Cannot have.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments:
Coming off a modest run in weaker event at Geelong last outing. Goes to another level. Tough alley. A win would surprise.
17. Sound
Trainer: Mike Moroney
Jockey: James Winks
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 10
Odds: $91
Win distances: 1600m (1), 2000m (1), 2200m (2), 2800m (2), 3200m (1)
BetEasy – The Wolf:
The German-bred stayer was somewhat unlucky in his 4L 10th in the Caulfield Cup. The Wolf is prepared to work well around him in this though, having already failed twice over 3200m, once in a weaker Sydney Cup (5L 8th behind Shraaoh) and also in last year’s race, when he languished a dismal 27L 18th behind Cross Counter.
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
Scratched from Saturday for this after racing deep and failing in the Caulfield Cup. Has not raced well while in Australia and unlikely to find form in this tough race.
Betfair – Runner Comments:
Latest run checked near 200m; 10 of 18 at Caulfield in the G1 Caulfield Cup on Oct 19 over 2400m, 4 len behind Mer De Glace with 54kg at $101.00. The run before that overraced near 1200m; 7 of 11 at this track in the G1 Turnbull Stakes on Oct 5 over 2000m, 4 len behind Kings Will Dream carrying 54.5kg at $151.00. Looks tested.
Unibet – Runner Comments:
Battling for form. Just a run when 10th beaten 4L in the Caulfield Cup. Needs to find a few lengths.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments:
Went to line only fairly in same class at Caulfield last time out. Looks tested.
18. Surprise Baby
Trainer: Paul Preusker
Jockey: Jordan Childs
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 20
Odds: $16
Win distances: 1200m (2), 1600m (1), 2520m (1), 3200m (1)
BetEasy – The Wolf:
Won the Bart Cummings (2500m) to gain entry where he beat Supernova and Wolfe, which is not vintage form but he also drops 3.5kgs here. His sire (Shocking) won the 2009 race and he shapes as though he will get the trip. Genuine lightweight hope.
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
Terrible draw but this is a fascinating racehorse. He is in great form and is a fast, tough and more importantly, honest stayer. However, his form is against inferior stayers. May just be one of those horses who keeps rising to the occasion though. Won the Gr 2 Adelaide Cup earlier this year over this trip and his Gr 3 Bart Cummings win last start was a dominant, supreme effort. Have in your numbers.
Betfair – Runner Comments:
Third-up today. Resuming settled back and ran on when 4 of 15 at Moonee Valley in the G2 Feehan Stks on Sep 7 over 1600m, 2.75 len behind Homesman with 59kg at $9.00. Second-up favourite; won by 1.5 len (began awkwardly) this track G3 Bart Cummings Oct 5 over 2520m defeating Supernova carrying 57kg at $2.50. Progressive stayer who has had his whole spring timed to qualify and then peak on Cup day. Among the winning chances.
Unibet – Runner Comments:
Fitter now third up. Classy win when taking out the Bart Cummings at Flemington by 1.5L. Light weight hope.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments:
Freshened. Showed a fine turn of foot to score convincingly here at latest. Needs luck from out there. Could sneak a place at odds.
19. Constantinople
Trainer: David & Ben Hayes & Tom Dabernig
Jockey: Joao Moreira
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 7
Odds: $8.50
Win distances: 1609m (1), 2012m (1)
BetEasy – The Wolf:
Promising northern hemisphere 3yo who has had an almost identical lead-up program to Cross Counter’s in 2018. Ran 2nd in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes behind leading stayer Logician (2400m), where he raced erratically despite powering to the line. The addition of winkers in the Caulfield Cup appeared to suit as he ran purposefully and straight, despite copping considerable interference. Looks as if Flemington will suit to a tee and with a lightweight and world class jockey, he will take a power of beating.
Betfair – Insider Racing Preview:
Recent form hard to fault and it was hard to miss his unlucky run in the Caulfield Cup, looks a real player but has come up a little short for me.
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
Probably starts favourite here on the strength of his luckless and eye-catching 4th in the recent Caulfield Cup behind Mer de Glace. He was stiff and probably should have won having been blocked at a crucial moment in the straight. Saying that, is he a false favourite? Just two wins in his career and has been beaten many times when favoured. Has a lightweight, and has a great draw. Must be strongly considered but hasn’t won past Gr 3 level.
Betfair – Runner Comments:
Recent form hard to fault. Latest outing 4 of 18 (slowly away; held up near 400m; crowded near 300m) at Caulfield in the G1 Caulfield Cup on Oct 19 over 2400m, 1.4 len behind Mer De Glace carrying 53kg at $6.50. The run before that 2 in a small field at York in the G2 Voltigeur Stks on in Aug over 2385m, 1.75 len behind Logician with 57kg at $3.50. Good run in the Caulfield Cup and his previous UK form was strong.
Unibet – Runner Comments:
Second run in Australia. Copped plenty of interference when 4th beaten only 1.4L in the Caulfield Cup. Will go close with clear running.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments:
Just behind the placegetters at Caulfield last start. Nicely weighted. Can play a role.
20. Il Paradiso
Trainer: David & Ben Hayes & Tom Dabernig
Jockey: Jye McNeil
Weight: 52.5kg
Barrier: 17
Odds: $14
Win distances: 2414m (1), 3219m (1)
BetEasy – The Wolf:
Another northern hemisphere Galileo 3yo, who ran a strong 3200m race behind Stradivarius and Dee Ex Bee two months ago, which is A-Grade form. Faded slightly in the English St Leger but stuck to his task gamely in a strongly run race. The last two races have been won by northern hemisphere 3yo’s with similar racing profiles. A good chance to run a place with his light weight.
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
Bred to be a stayer. But he’s another lightly raced Irish star here thinking the Cup can be won by useful types. It can’t. He has a good weight and is Gr 2 placed but this field should, on form, smash him.
Betfair – Runner Comments:
Useful colt. Comes off a 52 day let-up. Latest start 5 of 8 at Doncaster in the G1 St Leger Stakes on Sep 14 over 2922m, 5.25 len behind Logician with 57.5kg at $9.00. Before that second last in a small field at York in the G2 Lonsdale Cup on in Aug over 3270m, 1.35 len behind Stradivarius with 53kg at $21.00. Lightly raced but on the up. Has the right profile.
Unibet – Runner Comments:
Lightly raced type who looks to have plenty of upside. Just a run when 5th by 5.3L in the English St. Leger at Doncaster. Capable of improving.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments:
Missed 2nd by bob of the head behind a staying star in Lonsdale Cup. In front too soon in St Leger, ran well. Respect.
21. Steel Prince
Trainer: Anthony Freedman
Jockey: Brett Prebble
Weight: 52.5kg
Barrier: 16
Odds: $71
Win distances: 1800m (1), 2000m (1), 2213m (1), 2400m (2), 2425m (1), 2600m (1), 2800m (1)
BetEasy – The Wolf:
Has held a Melbourne Cup ‘golden ticket’ since winning the Andrew Ramsden in May, but little seems to have gone right since. Was scratched at the gates in the Herbert Power then ran in the Geelong Cup like a horse who needed the run. His past form has been comparable to Surprise Baby but he has had the slight setback. Looking around him.
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
Won five in a row during the year but his three runs this time up have been below the standard needed to win this race. No.
Betfair – Runner Comments:
Latest run pre race incident and passed fit at barrier; 7 of 11 at Geelong in the G3 Geelong Cup on Oct 23 over 2400m, 4.5 len behind Prince Of Arran carrying 57.5kg at $6.00. The race before that slowly away and held up near 300m; 6 of 11 at Caulfield in the G3 Foundation Cup on Sep 21 over 2000m, 4.25 len behind Brimham Rocks carrying 57kg at $7.50. Should run the distance out but doubt he has the class.
Unibet – Runner Comments:
Only battling this time in. Just fair when 7th beaten 4.55L in the Geelong Cup. Tough to recommend.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments:
Just battled home in weaker grade at Geelong last time out. Stiffer challenge here. Not likely.
22. The Chosen One
Trainer: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman
Jockey: Tim Clark
Weight: 52kg
Barrier: 18
Odds: $91
Win distances: 1400m (1), 1600m (1), 2000m (2), 2400m (1)
BetEasy – The Wolf:
Not The Wolf’s chosen one. Shouldn’t be yours either.
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
Looked a likely Cup winner when he won the Gr 2 Herbert Power at Caulfield beating Prince Of Arran, but then was plain when 9th in the Caulfield Cup and again was beaten nearly 8 lengths last Saturday by Downdraft. Couldn’t possibly beat that horse home on last start effort.
Betfair – Runner Comments:
Latest outing eased back early on 5 of 10 at this track in the G3 Hotham Stakes on Nov 2 over 2500m, slow going 7.75 len behind Downdraft with 57.5kg at $6.00. The race before that eased back early on 9 of 18 at Caulfield in the G1 Caulfield Cup on Oct 19 over 2400m, 4 len behind Mer De Glace carrying 52kg at $13.00. Herbert Power winner but hasn’t done enough since.
Unibet – Runner Comments:
Backing up quickly. Didn’t fire a shot when 5th beaten 7.75L in the Lexus Stakes. Cannot recommend as an investment.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments:
Faces stronger opposition now. Hard to make a case for.
23. Vow And Declare
Trainer: Danny O’brien
Jockey: Craig Williams
Weight: 52kg
Barrier: 21
Odds: $12
Win distances: 1800m (1), 2381m (1), 3000m (1)
BetEasy – The Wolf:
Genuine stayer who brought residual fitness into the Spring after his strong Tattersalls Cup win in June (3000m, by 3.5L). He was impressive in the Turnbull, running on into 4th and then surged into 2nd in the Caulfield Cup after being crowded a furlong out. An improved galloper who looks tailor-made for the wider expanses of Flemington and he should eat up the 3200m. Our best local hope.
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
He might be very special. This bloke is a genuine, bonafide lightweight chance. He is clean-winded, brave and honest and can stay all day. As a 3YO he won the 3000m Gr 3 Tatts Cup effortlessly. Then was spelled and his two starts since resuming have been outstanding. He was 4th in Gr 1 Turnbull then charged home between runners to grab 2nd in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup, beaten just 1 length by Mer de Glace. Was running that horse down and meets him 1kg better. A huge threat here.
Betfair – Runner Comments:
Third-up today and placed third-up previously. Resuming made some head-way from midfield; 4 of 11 at this track in the G1 Turnbull Stakes on Oct 5 over 2000m, 1.7 len behind Kings Will Dream carrying 54.5kg at $17.00. Last start hampered near 200m; 2 of 18 at Caulfield in the G1 Caulfield Cup on Oct 19 over 2400m, 1 len behind Mer De Glace carrying 52.5kg at $8.00. Racing very well this spring. Kept fighting when runner up in the Caulfield Cup. Right in this.
Fitter for two runs back this time in. Sprinted strongly when beaten 1L into 2nd in the Caulfield Cup. Strong winning chance.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments:
Closed from well back to fill the minors at Caulfield at latest. Has a light weight. Fitter third-up. Can figure.
24. Youngstar
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Weight: 52kg
Barrier: 9
Odds: $41
Win distances: 1500m (1), 1885m (1), 2000m (1), 2200m (1)
BetEasy – The Wolf:
The 5yo won the Group 1 as a 3yo in the Queensland Oaks, back in 2018 and ran a solid sixth last year, albeit when in better form. Outside top ten chance at best.
Palmerbet – Horse Racing Tips & Previews:
Has talent but seems a little behind the best of them. Did make a strong dash and wound up 8th in this race last year. Only average 3rd in a much easier race last start though.
Betfair – Runner Comments:
Latest run held up on straightening and held up in straight; ran on from midfield; 3 of 11 at Randwick St Leger Stakes on Oct 19 over 2600m, 2.5 len behind Hush Writer carrying 57.5kg at $6.50. The start before that second last of 8 at Randwick in the G2 Hill Stakes on Oct 5 over 2000m, slow going 3.25 len behind Verry Elleegant carrying 57kg at $10.00. Doubt she can match these.
Unibet – Runner Comments:
Second run in this race. Was an improve run when 3rd beaten 2.5L in the St. Leger at Randwick but this is much tougher. Prefer to see in something easier.
Sportsbet – Runner Comments:
Up in class. Unlikely to trouble these.