The following is a survey of Flemington racing tips for Oaks Day day this Thursday, November 7. The highlight of the day is the Group 1 Kennedy Oaks (Race 8). The other listed and group races at Flemington are also covered. More tips and previews will be added as they become available.
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Best bets
Flemington Race 2: No. 1 Jerle
Flemington Race 5: No. 1 Ball of Muscle
Flemington Race 9: No. 2 California Zimbol
Flemington
Race 8:
1. Moonlight Maid
2. Never Listen
3. Amazing Peace
4. Vegas Jewel
5. Miami Bound
Top Pick: Moonlight Maid ($3.90)
Best Roughies: Amazing Peace ($34) & Never Listen ($34)
Exotic: Box Trifecta 1,2,3,4,9,10
Race 8:
1. Gamay
2. Vegas Jewel
3. Miami Bound
Betfair – Feature Race Reports:
Race 8:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #4 Vegas Jewel
BACK – Miami Bound – Bet to WIN (stake 1.5% of your total bank.)
BACK – Stick Em Up – Bet to WIN (stake 0.2% of your total bank.)
Race 2: Jerle
Race 5: Ball of Muscle
Race 7: Russian Camelot
Race 8: Moonlight Maid
Race 9: California Zimbol, Absolute Flirt each-way
Race 2:
JERLE (1) ran a nice race on debut down the straight here and that raceday experience can be invaluable. Leading yard and bred to be smart. Nothing in the debut run to say that isn’t the case. BOOM DADDY (2) is the other with race day experience that he can put to good use. He will run well again after winning nicely and improving from run to run last time. TAGALOA (10) has trialled up nicely and looks a winning hope, as do the well bred RATHLIN (9) and HARD LANDING (8) who both run for leading yards that have already fired out key juvenile winners this season. Strong profiles.
Race 5:
BALL OF MUSCLE (1) was terrific in the Schillaci last time, quickly getting back on track after running below his best in the Moir at the Valley. Has followed this path successfully in the past and he can rocket down the straight 1000m and leave them all with plenty to catch again. Latest says he is as good as ever. SOOTHING (11) pulled up with excuses last time. Rocketed home in Adelaide prior and think she can rattle into the finish here. TAVISAN (7) is very honest. Few slicker at 1000m but he should run another solid race. CRYSTAL DREAMER (2) should be running well in a suitable race for him and PLAGUE STONE (4) will be fitter second up. May be one more from his top but he does have talent.
Race 7:
RUSSIAN CAMELOT (10) settled back on debut but let down powerfully to round them up and win running away. Ran slick time and looked the part doing it. Nice option for him for the yard that won the race last year with the subsequent Melbourne Cup winner. Looks a smart horse targetted at this. PANCHO (3) was terrific in the Bondi up in Sydney last time and that form should work out well at this level. QUICK THINKER (1) has been given a quick freshen following the Spring Champion. Has ratings that stack up well. HIGHLAND JAKK (7) is one coming off a maiden win with big upside. No shock to see him run well after looking to have plenty in hand when scoring at Seymour.
Race 8:
MOONLIGHT MAID (2) ran really well up to 2040m in the Vase. Closed well and that form worked out nicely through the winner who ran well in the Derby. In-form stable’s Derby chance improved as expected up in trip and she looks on track to do much the same. MIAMI BOUND (1) and VEGAS JEWEL (4) cleared out in the Wakeful and that is always a key reference for this. Looks a strong edition this year and that pair ran to a level that goes mighty close. Draw probably favours Miami Bound to win that battle again. GAMAY (3) saw off Vegas Jewel in the Ethereal and barrier one gives her a soft run on speed. Think that quartet hold all the aces.
Race 9:
CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL (2) draws middle which looks a plus. She can go where the pattern of the day dictates. Stands out on the back of her latest effort when she blew Loving Gaby away with a turn of speed that the subsequent Manikato winner couldn’t match. Have to think that she is the one to beat on the back of that with a smart stable opting to keep her conservatively placed. ABSOLUTE FLIRT (4) has been freshened up off a flat run last time. Form prior was terrific for this. WAYUPINTHESKY (5) and TARAAYEF (3) have good straight wins in the grade next to their name and have to be seen as chances while RUBISAKI (9) can rattle home before getting out over further.
Race 2:
2. Boom Daddy (5 stars)
11. Arctic Ice (4 stars)
1. Jerle (2 stars)
6. Coup De Tonnerre (2 stars)
Race 5:
13. Equal Love (3 stars)
1. Ball Of Muscle (3 stars)
10. Fine Dane (3 stars)
7. Tavisan (3 stars)
Race 7:
3. Pancho (5 stars)
1. Quick Thinker (3 stars)
2. Power Scheme (3 stars)
4. Oscar Boy (3 stars)
Race 8:
1. Miami Bound (3 stars)
3. Gamay (3 stars)
4. Vegas Jewel (3 stars)
2. Moonlight Maid (3 stars)
Race 9:
14. The Mobot (3 stars)
2. California Zimbol (3 stars)
5. Wayupinthesky (3 stars)
9. Rubisaki (3 stars)
Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:
Race 2:
If the trials and jumpouts are any guide, this promises to be a very good race. Of the raced, I lean to ARCTIC ICE after her very good debut at Moonee Valley. She was given a ground saving ride from the back and ran on very well. There are eight debutantes and have been impressed by all. TAGALOA had some jumpouts at Cranbourne in August that were most impressive. His recent trial at Moe over 670m was good enough. Behind him in that trial was a hard held GLENFIDDICH. His Cranbourne jumpout since was brilliant, if a little green. LUISELLI and CASTLECOMER have caught the eye at Flemington. It won’t end there.
Selections: 10. Tagaloa, 7. Glenfiddich, 13. Luiselli, 11. Arctic Ice
Race 5:
Competitive race. TAVISAN’s sprint form this prep has been very good. Take away Sept 7 when he had an issue and it’s almost faultless. The other defeat was when third with a four wide run. He’s unbeaten at 1000m and his only other straight run was a very good third in the Gr2 Danehill. BALL OF MUSCLE is going to be up there keeping him company and honest. He was unlucky for mine last time. CRYSTAL DREAMER had excuses last time. He might be the one camped on them from an outside draw. Stablemates PLAGUE STONE and SOOTHING drawn in (pattern?) both appeal as sit back/run on hopes. FINE DANE is going well.
Selections: 7. Tavisan, 1. Ball Of Muscle, 2. Crystal Dreamer, 4. Plague Stone
Race 7:
Good race. PANCHO’S 2nd to Kubrick in the Bondi Stakes was good and he should be hard to beat here. Until he drew poorly, Kubrick was going to be a major player in the Caulfield Guineas on the strength of his Bivouac/Yes Yes Yes form. QUICK THINKER’S efforts in the good Sydney 3yo races should stack up well for this. He’s had his chances but hasn’t been far off some good horses. Back to 1800m and onto rain affected ground might be the key. No doubt RUSSIAN CAMELOT is an an exciting prospect. Foaled late March 2017, he’s at an age disadvantage. HIGHLAND JAKK, OSCAR BOY and POWER SCHEME are chances.
Selections: 3. Pancho, 1. Quick Thinker, 10. Russian Camelot, 7. Highland Jakk
Race 8:
Given the forecast and the likely similar conditions to Derby Day, happy to be with MIAMI BOUND. She and VEGAS JEWEL dominated that race. The barrier draw has been kinder to Miami Bound. She’s bred to run a strong 2500m being out of the 2007 Oaks winner. MOONLIGHT MAID has to be her danger having beaten her in the Edward Manifold. She was solid in the Vase but she may have to settle better this time. GAMAY, like Miami Bound, fought off VEGAS JEWEL in the Ethereal in a two horse war. Some new blood and perhaps a blow-out at odds is STICK ‘EM UP. BEAUTY BOLT, FOXBOROUGH and even NEVER LISTEN have claims.
Selections: 1. Miami Bound, 2. Moonlight Maid, 3. Gamay, 4. Vegas Jewel
Race 9:
It’s very difficult to be against CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL after such a brilliant win over subsequent Gr1 Manikato winner Loving Gaby. The different challenges here are more pressure (she doesn’t have to lead), the straight and the likelihood of soft ground. Nevertheless she’s the one to beat. ABSOLUT FLIRT is a danger, freshened back to 1100m. RUBISAKI has trialled well to prepare. She’s a good filly and a good wet-tracker. She’s going to be strong. WITCHFULTHINKING is a serious talent. Very green and raw at both starts she only needs to have come on to be highly competitive in this. TARAAYEF and NICCOVI next.
Selections: 2. California Zimbol, 4. Absolute Flirt, 9. Rubisaki, 15. Witchfulthinking
Race 2:
Jerle (5 stars)
Boom Daddy (4 stars)
Tagaloa (3 stars)
Race 5:
Ball Of Muscle (5 stars)
Soothing (4 stars)
Tavisan (4 stars)
Race 7:
Russian Camelot (5 stars)
Pancho (4 stars)
Quick Thinker (4 stars)
Race 8:
Moonlight Maid (4 stars)
Miami Bound (4 stars)
Vegas Jewel (4 stars)
Race 9:
California Zimbol (5 stars)
Absolute Flirt (4 stars)
Wayupinthesky (4 stars)
Race 2:
RATHLIN (9) 2yo first starter sired by Fastnet Rock for trainer Ciaron Maher And David Eustace. Definite winning chance. CASTLECOMER (5) 2yo by Outreach having first race start for trainer Chris Waller. Big hope. TAGALOA (10) 2yo first starter for Trent Busuttin And Natalie Young by Lord Kanaloa. Can get the job done. ARCTIC ICE (11) Managed to run into 3rd last run at Moonee Valley and having second race start. Each way hope.
Race 5:
BALL OF MUSCLE (1) Did well when 2nd last run at Caulfield and looks well graded here. Has shown early pace in races to date. Good chance in this event. SOOTHING (11) Got the cash when winning two runs back at Morphettville but racing in stronger company here. Can go through the gears. Strong claims. PLAGUE STONE (4) Second up. Got the upper hand late when winning three runs back at Doomben and has minimal work to do from the alley. Each way prospects. CRYSTAL DREAMER (2) Proven record third up with 3 wins from 6 runs. Was fighting out the finish when winning two runs back at Caulfield. One to watch and an each way chance
Race 7:
RUSSIAN CAMELOT (10) Winner last start at Ballarat and having second career run. Rates well and should be taken seriously. PANCHO (3) Won narrowly two runs back at Warwick Farm and will appreciate the drop in class. Sure to be thereabouts again. QUICK THINKER (1) Landed the spoils when winning three runs back at Rosehill and looks well placed in this grade. Big danger. HIGHLAND JAKK (7) Racing again inside a week. Good win last run at Seymour but facing a stronger class. Market may be ultimate guide.
Race 8:
VEGAS JEWEL (4) Runner up in the Wakeful here on Saturday and ready to go one better. Will be trying to topple them late. Capable of taking this out. MOONLIGHT MAID (2) Left nothing to chance when winning the Manifold two runs back around here. Will be motoring home late. Appears as a winning threat. MIAMI BOUND (1) Got the upper hand late when winning the Wakeful at the track and going well this preparation. Should go well here. GAMAY (3) Won the Ethereal Stakes narrowly last run at Caulfield and has drawn to do little work. Has claims.
Race 9:
CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL (2) Nice effort when winning last start at Caulfield and third up from a spell. Very tidy this campaign winning 2 from as many starts. Will give a strong sight. RUBISAKI (9) First up today. Showed promise when winning two runs back at this venue but back in trip here. Worth an investment. TARAAYEF (3) Really dug deep when winning last time at this track. Going well this preparation. Races well in these conditions so do not discard. ABSOLUTE FLIRT (4) Ran on strongly when 2nd two runs back here. Been in the money 3 from 4 attempts this campaign. Can give this a shake.