The following is a survey of Australian racing tips for Stakes Day this Saturday, November 9. The focus is on the Group racing at Flemington, the highlights of which are the Group 1 Darley Sprint Classic (Race 5) and Mackinnon Stakes (Race 8). Selected races at Ascot and Rosehill are also covered. More tips and previews will be added as they become available.
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Best bets
Flemington Race 4, No. 5 True Self
Flemington Race 5, No. 1 Santa Ana Lane
Flemington Race 6 No. 13 Girl Tuesday
Ascot
Betfair – Feature Race Reports:
Race 8:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #4 Achernar Star
Race 8:
5. The Velvet King (5 stars)
1. Gatting (3 stars)
4. Achernar Star (3 stars)
6. Arcadia Prince (3 stars)
Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:
Race 8:
Can’t wait to see how this plays out. Hard to go against ACHERNAR STAR after his Northerly Stakes performance, when simply massive in defeat, and he shouldn’t drift as far back on this occasion. Runner-up last year, set to go one better. THE VELVET KING charged into Railway contention in the Northerly Stakes and was nice and sharp in a mid-prep Lark Hill 4/11 trial win. Suited from draw and loves the Ascot 1400m. If stablemate GATTING brings his best, he’ll win, but faces some challenges coming back from Melbourne, while first-upper ARCADIA PRINCE has a serious motor but bar plates are on.
Selections: 4. Achernar Star, 5. The Velvet King, 1. Gatting, 6. Arcadia Prince
Race 8:
The Velvet King (5 stars)
Gatting (5 stars)
Arcadia Prince (4 stars)
Race 8:
ARCADIA PRINCE (6) Proven record first up. Got the upper hand late when winning last start at this venue and proven performer at this trip in the past. Has genuine claims in this race. GATTING (1) Scored a victory three runs back at Flemington and drops back to a suitable class. Major claims. THE VELVET KING (5) Has a good record third up. Fought on gamely when winning last start at this course and strong performer at this trip. Can get the job done. ACHERNAR STAR (4) Having third run back from a spell. Really dug deep when winning three runs back at this course. Likely threat
Flemington
Race 1, No.1; Mandela Effect – 4.5 stars
Race 2, No.2 Wetakemanhattan – 4 stars
Race 4, No.5 True Self – BEST BET – 5 stars
Race 5, No.2 Nature Strip – 3.5 stars
Race 9, No.1 Esperance – 3.5 stars
Race 8:
1. Melody Belle
2. Magic Wand
3. Kings Will Dream
4. Humidor
5. Fifty Stars
Best Bet: Melody Belle ($4.00) – 4.5 stars
Best Roughie: Humidor ($17)
Exotic: Boxed Exacta: 3,7,10,11,15,16,17
Quaddie: 2,5,7,8,13,14/2,3,9,12,14/14,15/1,4,7,8,16
Betfair – Feature Race Reports:
Race 5:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #1 Santa Ana Lane
Race 8:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #15 Melody Belle; #4 Debt Agent
Race 5:
1. Santa Ana Lane
2. Nature Strip
3. In Her Time
Race 8:
1. Kings Will Dream
2. Magic Wand
3. Melody Belle
Race 4: True Self
Race 5: Santa Ana Lane
Race 6: Girl Tuesday
Race 7: Widgee Turf
Race 8: Hartnell
Race 4:
TRUE SELF (5) had to wait on a run at Geelong and the strong winner had stolen a march on her by the time she got out and chasing him. Big effort in a race that rated really well and if she can build on what she did there then she can be too good for these. TOP OF THE RANGE (7) stormed through the line to win at Bendigo and back up the big run in the Coongy prior. In career best form and a leading hope again. CARIF (8) was best of the rest last week and have to think that he runs well again. SULLY (9) should be in the race for a long way with no obvious pressure around him on pace while the best of RED CARDINAL (1) would see him go close.
Race 5:
Last year’s winner SANTA ANA LANE (1) is the horse to beat again on the back of his awesome effort in the Everest where the winner got first run on him. Closed powerfully and they ran world class time. Going as well as he ever has and little doubt that he is the best older sprinter around. He will have to reel in NATURE STRIP (2) who gave a huge sight in the Everest where he set up the fast time with big speed. Has flown down the straight in the past and if able to harness his speed and use it effectively he can cause them all sorts of problems. ALIZEE (8) is another with a hope of the Everest while Manikato winner LOVING GABY (9) must be respected again. Big talent and the three-year-olds are clearly a hot group.
Race 6:
GIRL TUESDAY (13) looks sure to relish a well run 2000m now and she can get that. Just has to stay in touch and not concede too much from the wide draw but she gets an in-form jockey for that job and with the right run she looks mighty hard to stop. AMANGIRI (3) saw her off around the Valley last time and must have a hope again – for all that 2000m looks a bigger positive for Girl Tuesday. RONDINELLA (7) is another sure to appreciate getting out past the mile. She peaked over further in the autumn but has been terrific this spring around a mile and tipping she is going better than ever. GREYSFUL GLAMOUR (8) rolls forward and is hard to beat again while the honest SPANISH REEF (1) has to be considered.
Race 7:
WIDGEE TURF (2) draws to get the softest of runs from barrier one. Going to need clear running at the right time but he is best seen getting to run at strong tempos over 1400m and he gets his scenario here. A trouble free passage and it’s hard to see him out of the finish. ICONOCLASM (6) saw him off last time around the Valley. Back in form there and a key hope off that. EAST INDIAMAN (14) can give a big sight on speed backing up from Tuesday. Have to respect the strong formlines that HAUNTED (5) brings to the race. Just needs some luck in running, as does RICH ITCH (9) who has found himself in great form and wasn’t a long way from Iconoclasm last time.
Race 8:
HARTNELL (1) was one of many that had very little luck in the Caulfield Cup last time. Run was terrific, and he was strong in the Turnbull at this course and distance prior. Reportedly having his last start here and think that he is going well enough to go out with a bang. Gets a great scenario. KINGS WILL DREAM (8) beat him home in that Turnbull and he is well suited coming back to Flemington. MELODY BELLE (15) had the perfect storm (literally) last week but she did it well and no issue going out to 2000m now. So reliable she can’t be ignored. CAPE OF GOOD HOPE (13) can bounce back from the Cox Plate while MAGIC WAND (14), who was very good at the Valley, is an interesting runner turned out quickly from the Melbourne Cup.
Race 4:
8. Carif (3 stars)
7. Top Of The Range (3 stars)
5. True Self (3 stars)
6. Ventura Storm (3 stars)
Race 5:
1. Santa Ana Lane (3 stars)
9. Loving Gaby (3 stars)
8. Alizee (3 stars)
2. Nature Strip (2 stars)
Race 6:
14. Oceanex (3 stars)
6. Another Dollar (3 stars)
7. Rondinella (3 stars)
1. Spanish Reef (3 stars)
Race 7:
3. Admiral’s Joker (5 stars)
5. Haunted (3 stars)
14. East Indiaman (3 stars)
2. Widgee Turf (3 stars)
Race 8:
15. Melody Belle (5 stars)
18. Admiral’s Joker (4 stars)
1. Hartnell (3 stars)
14. Magic Wand (2 stars)
Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:
Race 4:
Not sure leader. Maybe 12 & 6 from 3,8,9 ? TRUE SELF was terrific at his Oz debut just missing Prince OF Arran who very nearly won a Melbourne Cup! They ran fast time. Loved the chase of CARIF here in Hotham on Saturday, he easily beat SIR CHARLES ROAD home there. TOP OF THE RANGE was super chasing down Brimham Rocks in a Bendigo Cup and the Wolfe form is Surprise Baby form (speaking of nearly winning a Cup!!). SULLY had excuses there. GALLIC CHIEFTAIN had no hope Vs tempo behind Carif in St Leger in Syd.
Selections: 5. True Self, 8. Carif, 2. Gallic Chieftain, 7. Top Of The Range
Race 5:
SANTA ANA LANE won this last year beating IN HER TIME. He charged home in a track record Everest last start beating all-bar star 3yo Yes Yes Yes, he ran by NATURE STRIP who did a magnificent job to hold fourth given he set an electric speed (33.68 1st-600m) and the trifecta sat back at the tail. The ‘new’ 3yo to tie in is LOVING GABY who just beat older horses in a G1 Manikato Stks and beat Bivouac (he was luckless) and that 3yo had been beating Yes Yes Yes so she does tie in nicely. ALIZEE has a case.
Selections: 1. Santa Ana Lane, 2. Nature Strip, 9. Loving Gaby, 8. Alizee
Race 6:
SPEED looks good with 3,8 & 9 from any of 1,2,5,6,7. AMANGIRI’s win at MV was excellent given she led into the headwind and ran +8.6L Vs class average for that first section. GIRL TUESDAY closed strongly on her late and was 5-weeks between runs, at this weight scale she meets Amangiri 8.5kg better. FIDELIA has had plenty against her of late, the 2000m looks ok. RONDINELLA and DANZDANZDANCE bring that Melody Belle form. SPANISH REEF beat Rondinella then chased Melody Belle
Selections: 13. Girl Tuesday, 3. Amangiri, 11. Fidelia, 7. Rondinella
Race 7:
SPEED: 1,4 from 5,6,14. STREETS OF AVALON is a ripper, wide on-pace in G1 Cantala and held on well at 1600m, he is a better 1400m horse but 59kg is no bonus. WIDGEE TURF chased ICONOCLASM at MV but does meet him 2kg worse now. HAUNTED is genuine, handles soft and likes 1400m but draws wide. REYKJAVIK hit the line nicely being him and was 10-weeks between runs, he is much better suited 1400m. ADMIRAL’S JOKER is flying but back to 1400m some query. NOBLE BOY is unbeaten wet.
Selections: 6. Iconoclasm, 10. Reykjavik, 1. Streets Of Avalon, 5. Haunted
Race 8:
SPEED: 2 from 6,7,11 & 16,1. MAGIC WAND led into the headwind in the Cox Plate and held on very well, she then ran well in a Melbourne Cup, sharply back in trip some query. MELODY BELLE is a star, back out to 2000m (again on wet) only pluses. KINGS WILL DREAM ran on well in that Cox Plate, he can win. KLUGER was a forgive run there. HARTNELL, HUMIDOR definite hopes. GAILO CHOP can improve also.
Selections: 14. Magic Wand, 15. Melody Bell, 8. Kings Will Dream, 1. Hartnell
Race 4:
True Self (5 stars)
Top Of The Range (4 stars)
Carif (5 stars)
Race 5:
Santa Ana Lane (5 stars)
Nature Strip (5 stars)
Alizee (4 stars)
Race 6:
Amangiri (3 stars)
Rondinella (4 stars)
Girl Tuesday (5 stars)
Race 7:
Widgee Turf (5 stars)
Iconoclasm (4 stars)
Haunted (5 stars)
Race 8:
Hartnell (5 stars)
Kings Will Dream (5 stars)
Melody Belle (4 stars)
Race 4:
TRUE SELF (5) Second up specialist with 3 wins from 5 attempts. Almost grabbed a win when 2nd last run at Geelong. Gets the green light today as the race suits and will be difficult to beat. CARIF (8) Backing up quickly here. Dashed home into 2nd last time at this venue. No shock to see a win. GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (2) Did its best work late when 2nd three runs back at Randwick. Has a nice turn of foot. Chance here. TOP OF THE RANGE (7) Was fighting out the finish when winning last start at Bendigo and going well this preparation. Always seems to find the line well. Good prospect for the exotics at least
Race 5:
SANTA ANA LANE (1) Beat all bar one in The Everest and looks better suited today. Rates highly. NATURE STRIP (2) Extremely honest in The Everest. Can give them something to chase down. LOVING GABY (9) Took the next step when taking out the Manikato last start. Live chance with the weight. ALIZEE (8) Struggled last start but capable when at her best. Each way claims.
Race 6:
GIRL TUESDAY (13) Good performance to run into 3rd three runs back at Randwick and carrying less weight this time. Should be swooping on the field late. Will be in the finish. RONDINELLA (7) Ran on strongly when 2nd last run at Caulfield and can find a nice position from the draw. Tracking very well this preparation. Better claims. GREYSFUL GLAMOUR (8) Won by a big margin last run at Moonee Valley and gets a reduction in weight. Should be going forward early. Will be around the mark at odds. DANZDANZDANCE (2) Got going late when 5th last start at Randwick. Will be hitting the line strongly. Each way prospects.
Race 7:
NOBLE BOY (12) Might take a while to wind up but should be hitting top gear in the straight. Looked good when 4th last run at Goulburn and third up from a spell. Key hope. ADMIRAL’S JOKER (3) Did enough to win last time at Seymour. Hasn’t put a foot wrong this preparation with 3 wins from as many runs. Must respect. ICONOCLASM (6) Brave effort to win last run at Moonee Valley and strong performer at this distance in the past. Will be positive in the run early. Worth consideration. WIDGEE TURF (2) Dashed home into 2nd last start at Moonee Valley and gets the perfect gate. Can go through the gears. Likely threat
Race 8:
MELODY BELLE (15) Kiwi champion mare who showed her best at her first Aussie start. Can do it again. MAGIC WAND (14) Gets back to a suitable distance after a decent effort in the Cup. Live chance. HARTNELL (1) Always runs best over this course and distance. Worth an each way bet. KINGS WILL DREAM (8) Not at his best last start but a repeat of his Turnbull win would see him go close. One at odds.
Rosehill
Race 4, No.2 Falcon Island – 4 stars
Quaddie: 1,3,7/5,6,11,12,13/5,8,9/3,9,12,13
Race 7: Dyslexic, Luvaluva
Race 7:
The double figure quote for DYSLEXIC (5) is quite attractive. Was caught wide no cover throughout in the Toorak Handicap last start however her form prior was excellent. Finished on the heels of Mizzy in her first three runs this prep who has since come out and placed in the Golden Eagle. LUVALUVA (4) next best back to her own sex off a sound first up display behind the consistent Greyworm. REELEM IN RUBY (10) has finished second in each of her two starts this campaign, the latest behind Madam Rouge in the Nivison who she again faces here. Yet to finish out of the money through nine career starts to date. Should enjoy a dream run in behind the early leaders from barrier 3. MADAM ROUGE (7) comes here off winning the Nivison Stakes and there is no reason she can’t make it back to back successes. READY TO PROPHET (8) represents the third main hope to come from the Nivison formline where she ran third while MULTAJA (6) produced the best last 600m of the Nivison to finish sixth.
Race 7:
10. Reelem In Ruby (5 stars)
2. El Dorado Dreaming (3 stars)
7. Madam Rouge (3 stars)
8. Ready To Prophet (3 stars)
Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:
Race 7:
The best race on this card, and by a fair margin. 12 mares vs 1 filly. Pace from 13 and 8 with 1 and 7 not too far off. NICOLETTA has her first run outside of New Zealand. Led throughout in a 1000m trial at Newcastle on Oct 30 and she did beat LUVALUVA a length over in NZ back in April in a G1. She led that day and is likely to be on-speed here as well. MADAM ROUGE also guaranteed to be close and handy. Hers was a narrow win over REELEM IN RUBY last time but she sees every chance again here. Just has to do it at 1400m. Of course READY TO PROPHET was there with them in the Nivison and will fight on hard. DYSLEXIC wants pace on and luck from the draw. EL DORADO DREAMING has a very different gate but needs luck as well!
Selections: 8. Ready To Prophet, 2. El Dorado Dreaming, 5. Dyslexic, 7. Madam Rouge
Race 7:
Luvaluva (4 stars)
Dyslexic (5 stars)
Reelem In Ruby (4 stars)