The following are previews with betting tips for Round 15 of the 2020 AFL season.
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Tuesday, September 1
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Hawthorn vs Adelaide5:40 PM , Adelaide Oval |
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Could this be Adelaide’s last chance to snatch a win in 2020? They’ve had a full week to recover from their last game and are taking on the Hawks off a four day break; I reckon this is their chance. Hawthorn were very good in the first half of their match against the Bombers on Thursday afternoon, but completely fell away in the second half. When they were able to force Essendon to turn the ball over they had the upper hand, but as soon as Essendon lifted, the Hawks had nothing; the Bombers smashed them in the clearances and tidied up their ball use going forward to starve Hawthorn of the ball.
The Crows will be looking to emulate that plan, however their significant lack of polish will probably hurt in that regard: the Hawks feast on opposition errors, and Adelaide will probably give them plenty. The Hawks are also significant bolstered by the return of James Frawley, Ben Stratton, Jarmen Impey, Mitch Lewis, and Shaun Burgoyne. The Crows, similarly, will be very happy to see Brad Crouch and Daniel Talia back in the team, and as much as I do think Adelaide are going to throw everything they’ve got at the Hawks, Hawthorn will probably be a little too good for them in the end. I’m expecting a close one, but I think the cool, experienced heads at Hawthorn will prevail.
Betting tip: Hawthorn to win @ $1.42 (bet365, Unibet)
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West Coast vs Essendon8:10 PM , The Gabba |
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What a massive game this is for both clubs. The Bombers need to win to keep their finals chances alive, and all of a sudden they’ve got a bit of momentum up. Their season looked over at half time against the Hawks, but they came to life in the second half with the help of a big performance from Joe Daniher, which has everyone at Bomberland excited again.
And for the Eagles, well they’re fighting for a top four spot, but it’s not just that; they need to prove, to themselves and to everyone else, that they’re capable of playing their best footy in Queensland. They weren’t able to do it earlier in the year, and their loss to the Tigers on Thursday night was worrying. It didn’t quite set the alarm bells off—they lost Josh Kennedy early on, and the Tigers are a very good side—but if they can’t beat the Bombers in this one then it’ll very quickly become a huge issue.
The Bombers are reinforced with Michael Hurley and Dyson Heppell returning, but the Eagles will be missing Josh Kennedy as he recovers from his concussion. Oscar Allen will fill his void, but Kennedy is a massive loss in such a cut-throat game. I expect the Eagles to nevertheless gain the ascendancy in the midfield and eventually put that to good advantage, but this could be a fierce battle early on while the two sides are throwing everything they’ve got at each other.
Betting tip: West Coast (-14.5) @ $1.72 (Sportsbet)
Wednesday, September 2
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Richmond vs Fremantle7:10 PM , Metricon Stadium |
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The Tigers reasserted their authority on the competition last week by knocking off the West Coast Eagles in a battle of the heavy-weights. They’re back in the top four, and to stay there they simply need to keep on winning. I can’t see that being an issue this Wednesday night when they host the Dockers at Metricon Stadium; the Dockers have been good for the past month but were completely outplayed by GWS on Monday night. Perhaps they’re getting tired, or maybe they just can’t match a good side playing high quality footy.
They will get a big lift in this one by the return of spearhead Jesse Hogan, who could help cause the Richmond defence—now missing Dylan Grimes—some serious headaches. The Tigers will also be without Kane Lambert, so they’re much weaker compared to last week but I’m not sure it’ll make too much difference; Grimes and Lambert are two of their most important players, but the Tigers have proved all year they can perform with key players missing and I expect that to be no different this week. The other thing to note is that the Dockers are a significantly different side at home than they are away, and I expect their form to drop off a little now that they’re in the Queensland hub. Tigers to win by six goals.
Betting tip: Richmond (-30.5) @ $1.90 (UniBet)
Thursday, September 3
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Sydney vs Melbourne4:40 PM , Cazaly’s Stadium |
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The Demons kept their season alive with a hugely important three point victory over the Saints on Saturday night. There was some controversy towards the end, but in reality the Demons were the better team for most of the night and deserved the four points. Christian Petracca continued his stellar season, while Steven May has had a huge month holding down the backline. He was impassable on Saturday, and you’d suspect he’s going to play a similar role against the Swans, who don’t really have a dominant key forward in Lance Franklin’s absence. The Dees are bringing back some key players this week and look to be in pretty good shape heading into the final part of the season, but the Swans will make them earn it.
That’s been Sydney’s hallmark all year; they may not be the best side, but they work hard and never give up. Things looked pretty bad for them at half-time against Port last Saturday, but they dug in and fought til the end. They’ve got a better chance of beating a side like Melbourne, and I reckon the Dees will need to make sure they’re on their game: if they show up a little off, like they did against the Dogs a few weeks back, the Swans will punish them. But I suspect with so much on the line Melbourne will be switched on, and they’re definitely a stronger team than Sydney at the moment. That should result in a three or four goal Demons victory.
Betting tip: Melbourne (-17.5) @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)
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GWS vs Carlton7:10 PM , Metricon Stadium |
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Carlton had Collingwood in a pretty good spot at three quarter time of their Sunday afternoon clash, but completely fell away in the final quarter to kiss the four points, and their finals hopes, goodbye. They’d been the better side up until then, but Collingwood lifted and the Blues couldn’t match it. They’ve now got another tough game this week against the Giants, who received a nice little confidence boost in their 38 point win over the Dockers. That’s huge for GWS; they are a team that plays on talent, on instinct and confidence, and when that’s lacking they don’t have much in the way of a plan B. But when they’re on song they’re a very difficult team to beat, and that might spell trouble for Carlton; particularly now that the Blues don’t have as much to play for.
Jeremy Finlayson comes back in for GWS to add another dangerous forward target, but Josh Kelly will miss, while he Blues welcome Sam Petrevski-Seton back in, along with the always enigmatic Mitch McGovern. Don’t get me wrong, I still don’t think the Giants will play finals this year, but with their tail up now, and playing against a team like Carlton, they should win by a pretty significant margin I’d imagine.
Betting tip: GWS (-11.5) @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)
Friday, September 4
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Brisbane vs Collingwood7:50 PM , The Gabba |
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Friday night closes round 15 with a mammoth clash between the Lions and the Pies at the Gabba. The Lions have confirmation that the 2020 Grand Final will be played at their home venue; now they just need to ensure they make it there. They’ll need to beat Collingwood here to keep their place in the top two, but there’s also plenty on the line for the Pies: they’ve done well to win their past two games and entrench themselves in the eight, but they’re not locked into finals action just yet. They haven’t exactly been great, though their last quarter against Carlton was pretty impressive; they just keep finding a way. They haven’t played too many high quality sides in recent weeks however, and that could mean they’re found out against the Lions.
That being said, Brisbane haven’t exactly been flying themselves; they’ve won their last two, against the Roos and the Saints, by 1 and 2 points respectively. Their goal kicking is still letting them down terribly, but I think that could change quickly; all they need is a bit of confidence. They’re confident with ball in hand kicking forward towards teammates, so the goal kicking should follow if they have a good week or two.
They should be fresh this week after having the bye, and they’re playing a Collingwood side that continues to battle manfully but is clearly limited and underdone. I think the Lions might make a statement in this one by taking care of the Pies with ease.
Betting tip: Brisbane (-13.5) @ $1.91 (Bet365)
Best Bets of the Round
GWS (-11.5) @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)