2020 State of Origin Game One Preview & Betting Tips

The following is a preview with betting tips for Game One of the 2020 State of Origin Series.

2020 State of Origin Schedule

For the first time in Origin’s 40-year history, this year’s series is taking place following the NRL season due to the impact of COVID-19. Each game will be televised live on Channel Nine.

Game 1 – Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Wednesday, November 4, 7:40 PM ACDT (8:10 PM AEDT)
Referee: Gerard Sutton

Game 2 – ANZ Stadium, Sydney
Wednesday, November 11, 8:10 PM AEDT

Game 3 – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Wednesday, November 18, 7:10 PM AEST (8:10 PM AEDT)

State of Origin History

Below are the State of Origin results since 2000. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.

Home advantage has been historically important. Since 2000 New South Wales have gone 17-1-9 in Sydney and Queensland have gone 20-7 in Brisbane.

On neutral ground Queensland won all three between 2006 and 2012, but NSW have won all three (2015, 2018 & 2019) since. This year is the first time that Adelaide has hosted Origin.

2020 State of Origin Game I Squads

Queensland

1. AJ Brimson, 2. Xavier Coates, 3. Brenko Lee, 4. Dane Gagai, 5. Phillip Sami, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c), 8. Christian Welch, 9. Jake Friend, 10. Josh Papalii, 11. Felise Kaufusi, 12. Coen Hess, 13. Tino Faasuamaleaui
Interchange: 14. Ben Hunt, 15. Lindsay Collins, 16. Jai Arrow, 17. Jaydn Su’A
Reserves: 18. Kurt Capewell, 19. Moeaki Fotuaika, 20. Dunamis Lui, 21. Hymel Hunt
Coach: Wayne Bennett

Kevin Walters, who was head coach for the previous four seasons, stepped aside this year after taking up the Broncos coaching role. Veteran Wayne Bennett returns for his third stint as the Queensland coach, having last coached the side in 2003. With no international matches this season, Australian coach Mal Meninga has returned as an assistant coach.

Queensland are missing a host of players for this clash. Valentine Holmes is suspended for Game I while Kyle Feldt, Corey Oates, Kalyn Ponga, Michael Morgan, Moses Mbye and David Fifita are all injured.

Following consecutive series defeats Wayne Bennett has opted for an injection of new blood, with Queensland’s starting squad featuring just five players who started in Game I last year. The likes of Josh McGuire, Jarrod Wallace and Moses Mbye were overlooked as 12 debutants were named in the 21-man squad. AJ Brimson, Brenko Lee, Xavier Coates, Phil Sami, Jake Friend and lock Tino Fa’asumaleaui are the six debutants named to start with Lindsay Collins and Jaydn Su’A the two debutants on the bench. All four reserves are debutants.

The backline has been further reshuffled with Cameron Munster moving from fullback to five-eighth and Dane Gagai shifting from the wing to the centres.

New South Wales

1. James Tedesco, 2. Daniel Tupou, 3. Clint Gutherson, 4. Jack Wighton, 5. Josh Addo-Carr, 6. Luke Keary, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Daniel Saifiti, 9. Damien Cook, 10. Junior Paulo, 11. Boyd Cordner (c), 12. Tyson Frizell, 13. Jake Trbojevic
Interchange: 14. Cody Walker 15. Payne Haas, 16. Cameron Murray, 17. Angus Crichton
Reserves: Cameron McInnes, Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Nathan Brown, Zac Lomax
Coach: Brad Fittler

Roosters five-eighth Luke Keary has been given the start ahead of Rabbitohs No. 6 Cody Walker, who has been named on the bench. Keary is one of three debutants along with Clint Gutherson, who will start in the centres after Tom Trbojevic was ruled out with injury, and prop Junior Paulo.

At the time of writing fullback James Tedesco is still not certain to start as he faces a race against time to overcome a knee injury. Fellow fullbacks Tom Trbojevic and Ryan Papenhuyzen are unavailable so if Tedesco isn’t fit then most likely Clint Gutherson would move to fullback and Zac Lomax would slot into the centres.

Winger Daniel Tupou returns after an injury absence from Origin.

Adelaide Oval history

This is the first time that Adelaide Oval has hosted the State of Origin.

Since 2000 the six games played on neutral ground were split three apiece. Queensland won all three between 2006 and 2012, then NSW won all three between 2015 and 2019. Apart from the NSW 38-6 QLD blowout in Perth last year, every game was settled by 10 points or fewer (2, 10, 8, 8, 10).

Weather forecast

At the time of writing the Adelaide weather forecast for Wednesday is a temperature range of 17-21 with a 40% chance if a shower (0-1 mm of rain).

Bookmaker odds comparison

You can compare up-to-date bookmaker odds across numerous State of Origin markets in the bookmaker odds section.

Game 1 odds and markets can be viewed here.

Bookmaker promotions

Click here to view the latest State of Origin promotions (excludes NSW and WA residents).

Betting Tips

The Queensland squad selection suggests they have one eye on the future, while NSW look to have found a good balance of youth and experience. In Wayne Bennett and Mal Meninga, the Maroons have a strong brains trust in their corner, however.

While the halves pairing of Cameron Munster and Daly Cherry-Evans are a known quantity, this Queensland side is largely an unknown due to the high number of debutants. On paper the Blues look stronger, particularly in the backs, but they will have to be careful not to let any complacency creep into through believing the media hype. The carrot for the Blues is they could become just the third NSW team to win three consecutive Origin series (after 92-94 and 2003-05). They must, however, avoid getting prematurely carried away with any dynasty talk.

Note that this will be the first Origin series played under the six-again infringement rule, which throws a slight spanner in the works with regards to previous score data. The fact that this is being played over three consecutive Wednesdays also throws a spanner into the series score betting because if a team struggles early on it will have less time to make adjustments.

Series score

Over the last 20 years, only two Origin series were won 3-0: once by NSW in 2000 and once by Queensland in 2010. For this reason a previously reliable option was to dutch the NSW 2-1 QLD and NSW 1-2 QLD series score selections. Due to this series being played over three consecutive weeks the 3-0 result becomes more probable, however, which brings the NSW 3-0 QLD result into play.

Of the three selections my preference is still for NSW 2-1 QLD at 2.30 (Sportsbet). Origin football is highly physical and if NSW wins Games I and II there’s a chance they’ll come in with a little less intensity in Game III in Brisbane, which would give the Maroons a good chance of avoiding a whitewash.

Head-to-head

At the time of writing the best available head-to-head odds for Game I are:
Queensland: 3.25 (bet365)
New South Wales: 1.37 (Sportsbet)

If I had to bet on this market I would take the Blues, but there’s not much value in those odds.

Line

The Blues are 7.5-point favourites at the time of writing. Given only one of the last six Origin games played on neutral soil over the last twenty years was settled by 7 points or less, I would back the Blues -7.5 at 1.90 (Sportsbet).

Winning Margin

Only 1 of the last 16 Origin I fixtures was won by more than 10 points. As I alluded to before, the new six-again infringement rule could detail that stat, but I will nevertheless side with NSW 1-12 at 2.80 (bet365, Sportsbet).

Over/Under

Most bookmakers have set an over/under mark of 41.5. Since 2011 only 6 out of 27 Origin games went over this tally and Game I fixtures tend to have the lowest scores. The average Game I total over the last nine years is 25, with none going over 34. Using the last twenty years of data the average Game I total was just over 32 and 8 of the last 9 Origin I matches went under the bookmaker’s total.

Recommendation: back under 41.5 at 1.91 (bet365) – BEST BET