2020 Melbourne Cup Tips Survey

Two-pronged strategy here. Surprise Baby is seemingly the forgotten horse but if he can replicate his performance last year, he’s the one to beat. The Wolf will be saving on Tiger Moth, however, as he just has too much talent to ignore. If you’re looking for something at odds, Stratum Albion could shock at a massive price.

EXOTIC:
Trifecta: 12,13,21/1,5,7,9,12,13,14,16,21/1,5,7,9,11,12,13,14,15,16,21,23

TOP 5:
1. Surprise Baby
2. Tiger Moth
3. Prince of Arran
4. Sir Dragonet
5. Stratum Albion

ANTHONY VAN DYCK (1) Extremely classy winner of the Epsom Derby in 2019 who has drawn perfectly here. Can win despite the big weight. SIR DRAGONET (5) Far too good in the Cox Plate and should relish the 3200m. Can do the double. TIGER MOTH (21) Lightly raced 4yo having only 5th career start and gets in well with 52.5kg. Strong chance. SURPRISE BABY (13) 4th in this race last year and looks set to peak third-up. Each way if playing.

Racing.com – Matt Welsh:

13. Surprise Baby, 15. Russian Camelot, 12. Prince Of Arran, 23. Miami Bound

RUSSIAN CAMELOT’S effort in the Cox Plate was outstanding. If he comes on from that effort, he can continue the current day trend of Northern Hemisphere bred 3yos winning or running well in this race. He looked a natural stayer when he won the SA Derby back in May at just his 3rd start that prep. Fellow NH 3yo TIGER MOTH looks a star. Can he do it at just start no.5? Happy to be with him. VERRY ELLEEGANT is still untapped as a stayer. I doubt 3200m will stop her. She has such a great will to win. SURPRISE BABY was the run of the race in last year’s Cup. Concede chances to 1,6,9,12 and of course, it won’t end there.
Selections: 15. Russian Camelot (top tip), 7. Verry Elleegant, 13. Surprise Baby, 21. Tiger Moth

1. SURPRISE BABY
2. MASTER OF REALITY
3. PRINCE OF ARRAN
4. ANTHONY VAN DYCK

1. Anthony Van Dyck
2. Surprise Baby
3. Russian Camelot
4. Tiger Moth

Ric Chapman – Palmerbet:

1. RUSSIAN CAMELOT, Sir Dragonet, Anthony Van Dyck, Twilight Payment

Unibet – Ambassador Melbourne Cup Boxed Trifectas:

Selections: 21 Tiger Moth (8.00), 18 Ashrun (21.00), 7 Verry Elleegant (12.00), 13 Surprise Baby (9.50)
Roughie: 14 King Of Leogrance (41.00)

Suggested Bet: Tiger Moth (8.00) and Ashrun (21.00)

Boxed First Four: 2, 4, 5, 7, 11, 13, 14, 18, 21, 24.

Fletch’s Melb Cup Box Trifecta:
#1 Anthony Van Dyck, #7 Verry Elleegant, #11 Finche, #18 Ashrun, #21 Tiger Moth

Junior’s Melb Cup Box Trifecta:
#1 Anthony Van Dyck, #4 Master Of Reality, #7 Verry Elleegant, #13 Surprise Baby, #21 Tiger Moth

Ciaron Maher’s Melb Cup Box Trifecta:
#5 Sir Dragonet, #7 Verry Elleegant, #12 Prince Of Arran, #21 Tiger Moth, #24 Persan

Rooster’s Melb Cup Box Trifecta:
#1 Anthony Van Dyck, #11 Finche, #12 Prince Of Arran, #16 Steel Prince, #21 Tiger Moth

TAB – Melbourne Cup Tips:

RON DUFFICY: #13 SURPRISE BABY
MARK GUEST: #21 TIGER MOTH
FRANCESCA CUMANI: #21 TIGER MOTH
BRAD DAVIDSON: #21 TIGER MOTH
TONY BRASSEL: #15 RUSSIAN CAMELOT
DAVID GATELY: #13 SURPRISE BABY
DEANE LESTER: #21 TIGER MOTH

bet365 – Suggested Play:

Tiger Moth

Sportsbet – Gary Legg:

Best: Finche – no luck in Caulfield Cup when wide throughout and still fought on strongly.

Surprise Baby – powered home in the Turnbull Stakes, out to 3200m is ideal.

Anthony Van Dyck – super second in the Caulfield Cup, can only be fitter after first Australian start.

Prince of Arran – closed strongly, from last, at Caulfield rails draw is a plus.

Ashrun – scored fast finishing win in The Hotham, plenty of winners have come through on the quick back-up from Saturday.

Steel Prince – ran okay in this race last year and comes into the race after a strong Geelong Cup win.

Numbers: 11, 13, 1, 12, 18, 16.

BlueBet – Cup Day Best Bets:

TIGER MOTH – No.21
Exciting young stayer who fits the profile of recent cup winners. Has to contend with the wide draw but is weighted to win and gets the services of Kerrin McEvoy. Should be in the finish.

SMH: Who will win the Melbourne Cup and why: experts reveal their tips:

Damien Ractliffe
1. Tiger Moth
2. Verry Elleegant
3. Russian Camelot

Adam Pengilly
1. Surprise Baby
2. Anthony Van Dyck
3. Prince Of Arran

Andrew Wu
1. Russian Camelot
2. Prince Of Arran
3. Sir Dragonet

Michael Lynch
1. Russian Camelot
2. Anthony Van Dyck
3. Tiger Moth

Tim Habel
1. Anthony Van Dyck
2. Tiger Moth
3. Finche

Peter Ryan
1. Russian Camelot
2. Anthony Van Dyck
3. Prince of Arran

Chris Roots
1. Avilius
2.Verry Elleegant
3. Tiger Moth

Francesca Cumani – Verry Elleegant
Brittany Taylor – Anthony Van Dyck
Stephen Quartermain – Prince Of Arran

Melbourne Cup Runner Comments

1. Anthony Van Dyck

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Weight: 58.5kg
Barrier: 3
Odds: 7.50

Ran a terrific race in the Caulfield Cup to finish second but is untried at the two miles here. His talent will take him a long way but he is weighted up to his best. Looks no value at his present quote.

Ric Chapman – Palmerbet

European superstar who has been mixing it with the great Stradivarius in recent runs and did beat him last time out. Horror draw in the recent Caulfield Cup had him well back then had to circle the field making the performance to run 2nd to the brilliant Verry Elleegant even better. No doubting his talents though, nor his preparation or his trainer and rider. Must be in your numbers. Drawn to get a perfect run.

Third up from a spell. Showed brilliant acceleration when 2nd by 0.2L in the Caulfield Cup. Can go on with it.

Bookmaker – Runner Comments

Third-up today and won third-up in the past. First-up won by a head Longchamp G2 Prix Foy September 13 over 2400m defeating Stradivarius with 58.5kg at $4.80. Second-up 2nd of 18 at Caulfield in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, on a slow track; head behind Verry Elleegant with 58.5kg at $6. Enormous in the Caulfield Cup. Best horse here on facts and figures but gets the weight to offset that. Will take a massive effort.

TAB – Runner By Runner Preview

The last horse to complete the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup double was Ethereal in 2001, so it’s a good thing that the Irish import, Anthony Van Dyck couldn’t quite get past the in-form Verry Elleegant in the final stages of the 2020 Caulfield Cup.

Verry Elleegant has won three Group 1s in her last four starts and had the clear fitness edge over Anthony Van Dyck, who was having his first Australian run and only his second start since his 5th in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes back in June. He lost no admirers in his Caulfield Cup defeat and arguably produced the best Melbourne Cup trial alongside Prince Of Arran.

This five-year stallion defeated four-time Group 1 Goodwood Cup winner, Stradivarius in the Group 2 Prix Foy At Lonchamp two runs back, so he’ll head to Flemington with all guns blazing and could arguably be at the top of Melbourne Cup betting. The one to beat.

One of the more impressive GB/IRE horses to come for this race, as an English Derby winner, and is clearly a very classy big boy. Stepped straight into Australian racing when a neck second in Verry Elleegant’s Caulfield Cup, when he was 11th with 400m to go. The worry is he’s got to prove himself going 800m further than he’s ever been, and until you see them do it in a race, you just don’t know. But, he did work home very well at Caulfield, and his trainer is a genius who clearly thinks he’s up to the extra 800m of this race. Has equally good records on dry or soft tracks, so maybe a firm Flemington surface won’t worry him as much as other visitors. Good barrier. Could have horses before him on the turn but the field tends to thin out in the straight.

Straight off, I think this bloke’s the winner. His second in the Caulfield Cup was great. If he’d got to eyeball the winner, Verry Elleegant, in the last 100m it would’ve been a big fight, but I think he ran out of puff, fitness-wise. He’ll improve for that run, he’s drawn a great barrier, great jockey, and he’ll get the perfect run. The distance isn’t a worry, even though he hasn’t gone past 2400m before. The European horses stay much better than our horses, and even if they might not have won over 3200m, they’ll just keep on going much better than our Australian horses. I’d much rather be on a European horse stepping up from 2400m to 3200m for the first time than an Australian horse. They’re different horses. They’re bred to stay, but they’re also educated differently. Australian horses travel really strongly throughout a race; they’re keen to go. The Europeans will just bowl along on a loose rein, and then when the jockey pushes the button they switch on and hit the bridle. This horse showed his class in winning the English Derby, and he’s right in this. The other thing – and this goes for all the European horses – they’re getting a big benefit from the fact there’s no crowd. Quite often they can get very stirred up by the big atmosphere on Cup Day, and can lose their race before it’s run. That won’t be the case for the Covid Cup.

Motored late to just miss at Caulfield last start. Getting fitter. Rates highly.

He’s a good horse this guy and was a terrific run in the Caulfield Cup when going back from the wide draw. Hugh Bowman is adamant he will run 3200m even though he hasn’t been at this distance before. The query for him is the weight as only one horse has won with 58kgs or more in the past 40 years and that is Makybe Diva in 2005. Looks well found at the price given the task ahead of him.

2. Avilius

Trainer: James Cummings
Jockey: John Allen
Weight: 57kg
Barrier: 10
Odds: 46.00

Ran in this race once before, finishing 22nd in 2018. Could well have finished closer in the Caulfield Cup with even luck but reality is that his best years are likely behind him. Question mark at the trip, looking elsewhere.

Ric Chapman – Palmerbet

This is one of the horses to beat. What a star. He has already won some Gr 1 races and needs to be respected not dismissed. Got caught behind runners when making a crucial run in the Caulfield Cup and clearly should have placed. This trip will test but he’s going well.

Fair run when 6th beaten 2.6L in the Caulfield Cup. One for the multiples.

Bookmaker – Runner Comments

Latest start held up near 400m; 6th of 18 at Caulfield in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, on a slow track; 2.5 len behind Verry Elleegant with 57kg at $31. The race before that with blinkers first time; 2nd of 8 at Randwick in the G2 Hill Stks on October 3 over 2000m, 2 len behind Kolding carrying 59kg at $6.50. Not a lot of luck in the Caulfield Cup. He’s going as well as ever but two miles is a stretch.

TAB – Runner By Runner Preview

This seven-year-old gelding out of the powerful Godolphin empire hasn’t been first past the post since his victory in the Group 1 George Main Stakes at Randwick in September last year, so it would take a significant change in fortunes to return to the winner’s circle.

He has had four runs this campaign, so is ready to peak and run out a strong 3200m. He was luckless in the Caulfield Cup as he was checked for a run at a vital time, before powering to the line in 6th, so it would pay to forgive that effort. Knockout hope.

This French import was on fire in that spring of 2018, and was among the favourites for that Cup, before a horse fell passing the post the first time and knocked him way backwards, ending any hope. Hasn’t tried 3200m since then, so he’s still a doubt at this trip, and has to lug a hefty weight over this long distance, which is always worrying. He’s a classy animal, however, who never stops trying, and he hinted at a glimpse of his best form when he worked home well for sixth in the Caulfield Cup last start. Rain wouldn’t hurt, and while there are others who you know can get the trip, you wouldn’t rule him out altogether. Jockey will need to save ground, though, but that’s very possible from his barrier.

Drawn OK, it maps OK for him, but I think he might just be over the hill a little bit and on his way out. He’s had his chances. He runs well in all races, but I don’t think he’s going well enough to be in the finish of this race. He’s not going as well as two years ago, or even a year ago. His Caulfield Cup sixth was good, but he’d have to improve five or six lengths to be competitive here. He’s a seven-year-old, and you really need to be a top class horse at the top of your game to win this race nowadays. The younger horses that come out from Europe are just top quality horses. If you’re an Australian horse, you have to be right at the peak of your powers to win this.

Appears tested.

Top galloper who was unlucky not to finish closer in the Caufield Cup when getting cut out of a run at a crucial time when travelling well into the straight. He has been set for this and has the Cummings dynasty on his side. 3200m is a concern though and a dry track isn’t really his go in life. Wouldn’t be a surprise if he ran in the top 5 but doubt he could win.

3. Vow And Declare

Trainer: Danny O’Brien
Jockey: Jamie Mott
Weight: 57kg
Barrier: 4
Odds: 51.00

Looking to make it back to back wins in the Cup but his form this spring has been poor. Danny O’Brien has
elected to put blinkers on for the first time, but highly doubtful that will be enough to get him into winning form again.

Ric Chapman – Palmerbet

What a different story this year. He was on pace and fought tooth and nail to just win this great race last year. Form this time up hasn’t been as good and although he has drawn well and probably goes forward from the outset, he might find this tough over the final 100m.

Lacking form this prep but blinkers on first time. Didn’t fire a shot when 15th in the Caulfield Cup. Cannot have today.

Bookmaker – Runner Comments

Useful type. Latest outing one paced; 15th of 18 at Caulfield in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, slow going 8 len behind Verry Elleegant carrying 57kg at $41. The start before that 12th of 15 at this track in the G1 Turnbull Stks on October 3 over 2000m, 2.75 len behind Verry Elleegant carrying 57.5kg at $26. Won this last year but plenty went right and weighted beyond his best now. Makes it hard.

TAB – Runner By Runner Preview

The 2019 Melbourne Cup winner has failed to kick on since last year’s victory other than a minor placing in the Group 1 Australian Cup back in March. He has failed to reach any lofty heights in his three starts this preparation and finished 15th in the Caulfield Cup.

The fact that Craig Williams jumped off after his Makybe Diva Stakes run, and now rides Surprise Baby in the Melbourne Cup may be the only lead you need. Happy to risk.

That glorious day, which followed a Caulfield Cup second, seems a long time ago now though. As the old saying goes, weight will stop a train. In those two glory days last spring, he carried only 52.5kg and 52kg. He’s paid for that now. In April he carried 61kg in a modest 2600m race here, and he was a raging odds-on favourite. He ran a very ordinary fifth. This campaign, he’s carried 59kg, 57.5kg and 57kg, and finished ninth, 12th and 15th (last start in the Caulfield Cup). Can’t see him going any better. Trainer is trying blinkers on him this time, but that smacks of desperation. Good barrier at least.

I think this year he’s weighted out of it. Last year he had only 52kg, Craig Williams gave him a great ride. He’s drawn well but I don’t think he’s going as well as last year. I just don’t think with the weight and his form he’ll figure in the finish. Weight can catch up to you if you win a Cup. I won on Shocking with 51kg. The following year he had 57kg and came 18th. I reckon this bloke will finish top 10, but this is a big weight to carry over two miles. Again, for an Australian stayer, he was at the peak of his game 12 months ago. He’s not now.

Failed to make an impression in similar class at Caulfield last time out. Can’t have.

Last year’s Melbourne Cup winner returns to the scene of the crime here but he is not going as well as he was leading into this race in 2019. He was beaten 9 lengths in the Caulfield Cup and is deserved to be long odds here. Blinkers go on for the first time so that may see some improvement and good to see Jamie Mott with a feature race ride but his one horse you can leave out of top 3 contention.

4. Master Of Reality

Trainer: Joseph O’brien
Jockey: Ben Melham
Weight: 56kg
Barrier: 11
Odds: 26.00

Ran fourth (demoted from second on protest) in this race last year. Expect him to go forward here and set a genuine tempo, but probably had his best chance of winning last year.

Ric Chapman – Palmerbet

What a top horse. He was superbly ridden last year in the Cup and came off at the right time, made a concerted lunge at the leaders and failed to win the race by a head. Has since improved and his past two runs have been super staying efforts in Britain. Big show.

Resuming today. Good effort to win last start at Down Royal by 3.5L. Watch betting.

Bookmaker – Runner Comments

Freshened for 60 days. Latest run favourite; won by 3.5 len Down Royal LR Her Majesty’s September 4 over 2816m on rain affected going defeating Barbados with 60.5kg at $1.50. Before that 2nd of 8 at Curragh in the G3 Irish St Leger on August 14 over 2816m, nose behind Delphi with 62kg at $4.50. Terrific here last year. Goes forward and stays. Each way hope.

TAB – Runner By Runner Preview

Irish trainer Joseph O’Brien won the 2017 Melbourne Cup with Rekindling and will be hoping Master Of Reality can improve on his 4th in last year’s Cup after he was relegated on protest due to inference with Il Paradiso in the closing stages.

This son of Frankel bypassed the Group 1 Irish St Leger in favour of the Listed Her Majesty’s Plate at Down Royal, cruising to victory by three and a half lengths. He ran 3rd in last year’s Group 1 Ascot Gold Cup on the path to his 2019 Melbourne Cup tilt, so there has to be a query about the strength of his form leading into this year’s edition as he hasn’t tackled a Group 1 since last year’s Melbourne Cup.

He ran 2nd by a big margin to stablemate, Twilight Payment in the Group 2 Curragh Cup back in July. He can’t be dismissed on his Melbourne Cup run last year, but a lead-up win in Listed company might not hold up against some of the other imports at the top of the Melbourne Cup betting.

Now here’s one you know will get the trip. Look at his third in that Ascot Gold Cup, when he was only a length behind the winner, the great Stradivarius, who’s Europe’s best stayer for a long time. Check out Master Of Reality’s last start, winning easily in fair class over 2816m at Down Royal, Northern Ireland. The big one to look at though, is of course last year’s Melbourne Cup. Under the great Frankie Dettori, who has a shocking record in this race, he sat in the “death seat” throughout – second, one off the fence, with no cover from the breeze from any horse in front of him. Frankie went for home probably too early, the horse hit the lead at the 300m and looked the winner, but – not surprisingly – he got the staggers late, veering right in towards the fence to cause the interference that cost him two places. Still, after that run, he was only a head behind the much lighter-weighted winner on the line. He’s only got half a kilo more this year, and if he can be given a better run this time by Ben Melham, he’ll be right in this. Barrier has the equal best record of any in this race, with nine winners.

OK, I’ve only had one ride for Joseph O’Brien, so you wouldn’t say I know him all that well. Mind you, I did win a Melbourne Cup with it, on Rekindling. I do know he wouldn’t bring this horse out here unless he knew it was in good form. Ben Melham deserves a Melbourne Cup, after I beat him by a neck on Rekindling when he rode Johannes Vermeer. The horse’s form is great, but I’m not sure he’ll stay like a top two-mile horse. He had a tough run last year, sitting in the death seat, so it wasn’t a surprise that he was compounding at the end, veered in and caused interference, which ended up with him being relegated from second to fourth on protest. So he ran well all things considered, but I just think the quality of this year’s Cup is better than last year’s.

Returning from let-up. Prefer others.

Ran a bold race in this event last year when finishing 2nd across the line before being relegated on protest to 4th. His form in the UK this year has been gradually building and he was dominant winning last time out at Down Royal. He will be suited if the race is slowly run and a sprint home as he will position on speed. Query is if the race is fast run and whether his feet are fine as he is wearing synthetic hoof filler. One of the better internationals in the race and would be no surprise if he won.

5. Sir Dragonet

Trainer: Ciaon Maher & David Eustace
Jockey: Glen Boss
Weight: 55.5kg
Barrier: 14
Odds: 8.00

Comes into this with an outstanding formline having won the Cox Plate, but that was on his favoured wet ground which he will not get at Flemington. He is untried at the trip, but class can take you a long way. Expect he finds a couple too strong at the end of the two miles.

Ric Chapman – Palmerbet

What a marvel. What a great ride and superb staying performance to finish the race off with a tremendous flurry to get home, drawing away to win the Gr 1 Cox plate over 2040m last start. Has good distance staying form abroad too. Looks to be thriving in Australia and should be a little better than midfield all the way before launching.

Brilliant last start winner of the Cox Plate by 1.25L and stepping up in trip today. Well in this.

Bookmaker – Runner Comments

Racing second-up today. Fresh up after three months won by 1.3 len (slowly away; eased early stages) Moonee Valley G1 Cox Plate October 24 over 2040m slow going defeating Armory carrying 59kg at $7.50. Previously second-up second last in a small field at Curragh in the G3 Alleged Stakes on June 27 over 2012m, 1.5 len behind Buckhurst with 59.5kg at $1.90. Had the stamina when it counted in the Cox Plate. Two miles may suit even better but does he need soft ground? Big rating demands respect.

TAB – Runner By Runner Preview

The Irish import, Sir Dragonet shot into joint Melbourne Cup favouritism alongside Tiger Moth on the back of his impressive Cox Plate victory which also happened to be his first Australian start and first outing since his runner-up finish behind seven-time Group 1 winner, Magical in the Group 1 Gold Cup at the Curragh.

Form lines don’t get much stronger heading into the race that stops the nation and this son of Camelot can only improve with his first Australian run now under his belt. He would prefer the sting out for the ground heading towards Tuesday, and has only run as far as 2922m during his career, finishing 4th and just over three lengths behind Logical in the 2019 St Leger at Doncaster.

They are slight knocks on him, but he has to be respected on his Cox Plate victory, where he shot through between Armory and Russian Camelot in the Moonee Valley straight and left them in his dust. Major player.

Showed his class with an comfortable 1.2len victory in the Cox Plate over 2040m 10 days ago. He looked like one of these English stayers who can go over longer trips, with jockey Glen Boss reporting an extremely comfortable ride. Slight concern is his longest run was a fourth in the G1 St Leger over 2922m a year ago. You also wonder if the Cox Plate was his grand final, and this a bit of a hopeful secondary mission. He’d also love a damp track, which is looking unlikely. In fact, he’s had three tries on dry ground, for one placing, and that was GB/IRE good ground, not hard Flemington good ground, which can sting the legs of many a European. On the upside, breeding suggests he’ll get this trip. He’s only got 55.5kg, which isn’t bad for a 5yo stallion. And then there’s Glen Boss, who won three of these on Makybe Diva. Put him on a $2 favourite at Canterbury on a Wednesday, and you might be nervous. Put him on anything in a big race, and they gain 10%. Also has a good middle gate.

The trainers are on fire, and he’s drawn OK. You can get better than barrier 14, but the speed map for the race – where you expect most horses to settle – looks good for him. If he runs as well as his Cox Plate win, he’ll be top four or five for sure. He goes up 1200m from that, but European horses like him – although he’s trained in Australia now – they’re used to doing things like that; running first-up over 2400m, jumping up 1200m – they do things like that all the time. He won the Cox Plate with ease, so he’s fit enough and he’ll run well. But the other big thing is Bossy. He’s just a freak in big races. I’m a keen watcher of jockeys’ styles, and watching the decisions they make in races, and you get to know them well because you’re riding against them every day. And to be honest, although I know he always does his best, I probably wouldn’t have Bossy in my top six or seven on a day-to-day basis. But the moment he gets in a big race, he just goes to another level. He’s a freak with it. He just seems to rise to the occasion and put his horses in the best spots in big races. So this horse is a definite chance.

Quickened smartly to score at Moonee Valley first-up. Will only be fitter. One of the major players.

The Cox Plate winner lines up for his 2nd run in Australia here but it will be different conditions to when he won at Moonee Valley which was on a wet track in a fast run race where as this race will be run in 28 percent heat on a good track and likely be slowly run. Not concerned about 3200m for him as think under Australian conditions he will run the trip and his turn of foot is close to best in race. Boss also knows how to win a Melbourne Cup and will no doubt relish the challenge of riding one of the favourites. He’s an obvious winning chance.

6. Twilight Payment

Trainer: Joseph O’brien
Jockey: Jye Mcneil
Weight: 55.5kg
Barrier: 12
Odds: 31.00

Ran midfield in this race last year after doing plenty of work early. Expect him to be up on the pace once again setting a genuine tempo, but they will have his measure late.

Ric Chapman – Palmerbet

This is a brilliant stayer. The yardstick re his chances is Master Of Reality, his stablemate. That horse ran 4th, beaten a head in this race last year. Well, this bloke has raced him twice this year, beating him by 8 lengths and 11 lengths in each of those runs. Must have in your numbers.

Showing good form this prep. Decent run when 3rd in the Irish St. Leger. Place chance today.

Bookmaker – Runner Comments

Freshened for 51 days. Latest run 3rd of 8 at Curragh in the G1 Irish St Leger on September 13 over 2816m, 2.5 len behind Search For A Song with 62kg at $5.50. The run before that won by 8 len Curragh G2 Curragh Cup July 18 over 2816m defeating Master Of Reality with 63kg at $1.50. As good as ever in 2020 but likely to find them too speedy today.

TAB – Runner By Runner Preview

Twilight Payment could only finish 11th in the 2019 Melbourne Cup, but made it back-to-back Group 2 Curragh Cups, smashing his stablemate Master Of Reality in July. Unlike his stablemate, Twilight Payment then pressed on to the Group 1 Irish St Leger but was no match back in 3rd behind Search For A Song.

He showed an improved showing on his 2019 run in the St Leger, but there has to be a genuine query about how the form will stack up, especially after his Melbourne Cup failure last year.

This bloke’s a stablemate of Master Of Reality, and trainer Joseph O’Brien knows what he’s doing, having won this race three years back with Rekindling. He can get the trip. His run wasn’t all that bad last year, when taken to the front from the ugly gate 19 by Hugh Bowman, leading into the straight, and hanging on to be beaten only by 3.8 lengths. He is, however, another year older this time, and eight-year-olds don’t have a good record in this race (even if he’s only 7-1/2 by northern hemisphere time). Also, Bowman was very happy to switch to Anthony Van Dyck this year. Barrier fair.

Again, I love the trainer, but I especially love the rider. Jye’s only 25, but he came fourth in the Melbourne jockeys’ premiership last season and he’s an absolute superstar. Not saying he’ll win the Cup this year, but I’ll bet he does before his career is over. That said, I think the horse will run well. He’s in decent form, he’ll probably end up top 10, but I don’t think he’ll be near the finish. He led last year and did it tough, but weakened right out of it, and he’s an eight-year-old now.

Back from a let-up. Not fancied.

Ran in the race last year and was well beaten but his been flying in the UK and Ireland this year. He bolted in against Master Of Reality in the Curragh Cup and was a great run last start in the Irish St Leger when running 3rd. He will be on pace and can run a cheeky race here but still doubt whether he is quick enough to win a Melbourne Cup.

7. Verry Elleegant

Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Weight: 55.5kg
Barrier: 15
Odds: 12.00

Looking to become the first horse since Ethereal in 2001 to complete the Caulfield Cup – Melbourne Cup double. Boasts the most impressive CV of any locally trained horse to contest this race since Hartnell, having won six Group 1 races including three this spring. Unproven at two miles and that could be her undoing.

Ric Chapman – Palmerbet

Champion mare and if it is wet will win this with a leg in the air. Should find a nice spot mid-field here and last start’s win at 2400m at Caulfield in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup when she defied the great Anthony Van Dyck’s finishing charge, proved her worth. Yet again. So she is fit, fast and fantastic. Big show.

Ran through the line strongly when taking out the Caulfield Cup by 0.2L. Each way claims.

Bookmaker – Runner Comments

Chasing a hat-trick. Latest outing favourite; came from midfield and won by a head (overraced early, middle stages; rider dropped rein) Caulfield G1 Caulfield Cup October 17 over 2400m slow track defeating Anthony Van Dyck with 55kg at $5. The run before that favourite; won by a nose (slowly away; wide near 800m) this track G1 Turnbull Stks October 3 over 2000m defeating Toffee Tongue carrying 55.5kg at $5. High talent and her Caulfield Cup win was fantastic. She must go in as a top chance.

TAB – Runner By Runner Preview

This five-year-old mare out of the Chris Waller stable is low-level flying, winning three of her last four starts in Group 1 company. She managed to hold off the fast-finishing import Anthony Van Dyck in the Caulfield Cup and will be hoping to rinse and repeat in the Melbourne Cup.

She has had four runs during this campaign, so she is rock hard fit to tackle the two miles, but will she be able to hold off rivals like Anthony Van Dyck and Prince Of Arran who were both storming home in the Caulfield Cup and will be crying out for the extra 800m here. She’s all class and has to be respected.

Exceptional, gutsy, superbly-bred mare who’s knocking on the door of champion status, having won six Group 1s. Took out the best lead-up race for this, the Caulfield Cup, as favourite and is looking to emulate Ethereal (2001) as a New Zealand-bred mare who wins the Cups double. Chances would increase further if it rains. Slight worry is she’s only won up to that 2400m of the Caulfield Cup. Had only one try at longer, for a seventh in the 2500m VRC Oaks here in 2018, but she’s bigger and stronger now. The other worry is a minor weight penalty for winning at Caulfield gives her 55.5kg here. Only the great Makybe Diva, with 58kg as a hardened 7yo in 2005, has carried more among female Melbourne Cup winners. Verry Elleegant had 55kg in the Caulfield Cup and won by a neck. It’s one thing for a 5yo mare to carry that over 2400m; another to carry 55.5kg over 3200m. But she could just be a champion, and does have a very capable jockey in Mark Zahra. The barrier is a bit of a worry though. Might be hard to get close to the rail from there, to save ground with this significant handicap on her back.

Caulfield Cup winner – yes, great. I can’t disregard her, but there’s a few issues for me. She won well over the 2400m of the Caulfield Cup, and she’s won over that distance a lot, but I think this is too far for her. She travelled way too strong between the 1600-1000m at Caulfield. Although the pace was slow, she’s better suited over shorter than 3200m. She’s a really aggressive animal. She races fiercely. If she’d had a run in the Cox Plate after the Caulfield Cup, then maybe, but the fact it’s two-and-a-bit weeks between runs, she’ll be really revved up and rearing to go. She’s got loads of ability, but I think it’ll be too far. She’ll be too aggressive, and I can’t see her dropping her head and giving Mark a good, peaceful ride. Gate 15 is probably the worst thing for her. Mark’s gonna have to either dig her up or try to wrestle with her to go back. Either way it doesn’t suit the type of horse she is in a two mile race. Plus 55.5kg is a lot for a five-year-old mare around two miles of Flemington.

Good, determined win from off the pace last outing. Place appeal only.

Champion mare who has been nearly faultless in 2020 winning four Group 1 races and she was brilliant when winning the Caulfield Cup last start. She would prefer the track to be wetter but she is capable on dry ground and her class leaves her as a genuine winning chance here. Gate 15 means Zahra can look for cover somewhere midfield and put her asleep for the 3200m. Over the odds.

8. Mustajeer

Trainer: Kris Lees
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Weight: 55kg
Barrier: 2
Odds: 71.00

Out of his depth here and deservedly at very big odds.

Ric Chapman – Palmerbet

This bloke is a very good stayer on his day and although his form has been below par of late, you could find merit in the way he weaved home in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup to finish just behind them. Will be a long shot. Has a great draw though.

Haven’t seen its best for a while. Plugged away when 8th beaten 3.9L in the Caulfield Cup. Entitled to be a big price.

Bookmaker – Runner Comments

Useful type. Latest run 8th of 18 at Caulfield in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, slow going 4 len behind Verry Elleegant with 55kg at $101. The run before that 9th of 18 at Randwick in the G1 The Metrop on October 3 over 2400m, 4.5 len behind Mirage Dancer with 58kg at $61. No match in this last year and no better in 2020. Happy to be working around him.

TAB – Runner By Runner Preview

The 2019 Ebor winner has failed to fire this preparation and would need to improve significantly on his 8th in the Caulfield Cup to make his presence felt in this year’s Melbourne Cup. He finished 23rd in last year’s Cup and unless he can recapture the form which saw him run 2nd to Verry Elleegant in the Group 1 Tancred back in March, he is simply making up the numbers here. Not keen.

Pretty hard to warm to this one. Did have that fifth over this trip last April, but the Sydney Cup is many leagues below this one, and perhaps look more to his 23rd in this race last year. Wasn’t all that bad a run in the Caulfield Cup last start when eighth, beaten four lengths, without much luck. But he’s also eight now, so a win, or even a decent run, would knock all of our socks off.

I’d love to see Michael Rodd win it again, and to see Kris Lees win it for the first time. But he’s an old horse, he’s been in fair form, but only fair. He was a decent eighth in the Caulfield Cup, but he’d have to lift a fair bit to feature here.

Cannot entertain.

He hit the line reasonably well in the Caulfield Cup but he just lacks the class to win a Melbourne Cup and a dry track is not suitable for him.
One of the real outsiders.

9. Stratum Albion

Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: Jordan Childs
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 9
Odds: 35.00

Trained by the Irish jumps wizard Willie Mullins who has gone close in this race before with Max Dynamite (2nd in 2015 and 3rd in 2017). Comes into this race off a last start second in the 3200m Lonsdale Cup in England won by the outstanding Enbihaar, and claimed the rich Cesarewtich Handicap in 2019. Form is hard to line up but looks one of the better roughies in the race.

Ric Chapman – Palmerbet

This is a strong stayer who is tough too. But just isn’t fast enough to warrant a thought in this field.

Having first local run today. Good effort to finish 2nd in the Lansdale Cup at York but this is tougher. Hard to have.

Bookmaker – Runner Comments

Back from a spell. Finished off last campaign second of 7 at York in the G2 Lonsdale Cup August 21 over 3270m, 0.8 len behind Enbihaar with 58.5kg at $21. When resuming last campaign seventh of 18 at Galway Hrdl July 31 over 4579m, soft track; 22 len behind Great White Shark with 74.5kg at $17. As good as he goes on the flat last time. Tougher here and surely lacks a gear or two that the top chances have.

TAB – Runner By Runner Preview

Stratum Albion has combined hurdling and flat racing in the lead-up to his tilt at the Melbourne Cup, which was a similar game plan by Willie Mullins with Max Dynamite, who was a two-time Melbourne Cup placegetter, so it’s hard to knock the approach. Max Dynamite won the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup at York by four and a half lengths in the lead-up to his 2nd in the 2015 Melbourne Cup. Stratum Albion is on the same path, running 2nd to Enbihaar in the Lonsdale Cup over 3270m.

He appears to be a dour stayer, so he might not have the turn of foot to find another gear when the pressure is applied in the Flemington straight. However, the stable commands respect and is one for wider exotics.

Trainer Mullins is a shrewd fellow from Ireland, but with all due respect, this is one of those European horses who’s place in the field makes local trainers’ blood boil. Could make fools of us yet, but comes into this with a handful of coins for prizemoney, and with a last-start second in a York G2 over 3270m, which followed three ordinary runs over hurdles, up to 4579m. So he will get the trip. Only worry is how long it will take him. He’s old, and not exactly thrown in with a light weight. One for Steven Bradbury fans.

Again, they wouldn’t bring it over here if they thought it was going ordinary. And I’m glad to see Jordie Childs get a ride after he rode Surprise Baby last year and got the drag. His form looks good. He finished second at York in a Group 2 last start over this trip. But still, when you compare him to a few other horses in this race, especially the Europeans, it’s pretty hard to have him.

Returning from let-up. Rank outsider.

Fascinating runner who has raced over hurdles in 2020 and last start ran 2nd in the Lonsdale Cup behind Enbihaar who is a quality stayer.
His very one paced though this guy and is just not the right type of horse to win a Melbourne Cup and looks to be making up the numbers.

10. Dashing Willoughby

Trainer: Andrew Balding
Jockey: Michael Walker
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 19
Odds: 101.00

Grossly disappointing in the Caulfield Cup and looks impossible to consider here on that basis.

Ric Chapman – Palmerbet

English horse who led the Caulfield Cup up and ran last. You’d have to expect the same result here.

Weakened late to finish 18th in the Caulfield Cup last time out. Needs a lot of luck to figure in the finish.

Bookmaker – Runner Comments

Useful type. Latest outing blundered at start and weakened near 600m; ran last of 18 at Caulfield in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, slow going 27 len behind Verry Elleegant with 54.5kg at $31. The race before that 4th of 7 at York in the G2 Lonsdale Cup on August 21 over 3270m, 2.5 len behind Enbihaar carrying 58.5kg at $3.30. Ordinary in the Caulfield Cup. Trip suits better but hard to like him now.

TAB – Runner By Runner Preview

Dashing Willoughby proved to be the pacemaker from barrier 1 in the Caulfield Cup and folded up when the pressure was applied, finishing over 27 lengths behind the winner, Verry Elleegant. The rank outsider of the field and with good reason on the back of his Caulfield Cup effort.

Came to Australia with a strong reputation, following that Sandown win with a fair fourth at a decent level over 3270m at York (where Stratum Albion came second). Looked dashing indeed going into the Caulfield Cup, heading out to the lead of the field, but then weakened to finish last of the 18. They’d tear the grandstand down, in anger this time, if he won this and again, if there was anyone there. (Also bear in mind that if we’re scrapping this bloke, the formline doesn’t look good for Stratum Albion either). Has a rotten barrier on top of everything else.

Cuzzy Bro! Mickey Walker. I always love seeing our favourite Kiwi do well. Hughie Bowman’s my best mate but I love Mickey and he’s a great rider. But the horse… He’d have to improve a real lot. He ran awful in the Caulfield Cup, leading and then fading out to run last. Drawn badly as well.

On pace but weakened right out of it at Caulfield last start. No appeal.

He was too bad to be true in the Caulfield Cup when beaten a long margin but has been problems with the horse since at Werribee and he hasn’t had a great lead up for this race. Hard to see him featuring and even at his best he looks outclassed.

11. Finche

Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: James Mcdonald
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 6
Odds: 17.00

Ran favourite in this race last year and looks to be going as well this time in. Always seems to find a couple better when competing at the very top level though and suspect this year will be no different.

Ric Chapman – Palmerbet

This could be the dark horse. He ran home brilliantly when 5th to Verry Elleegant in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup last start after travelling wide all the way. Was extremely game in defeat and he did run a great 4th in this race two years ago. Is very fit, drawn perfectly this time and rates highly.

Tough run when wide in the Caulfield Cup, finishing 5th by 2.45L. Can finish in the frame.

Bookmaker – Runner Comments

Useful gelding. Latest run made ground from midfield; 5th of 18 (raced three wide; crowded near 400m; became unbalanced) at Caulfield in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, slow going 2.5 len behind Verry Elleegant carrying 54.5kg at $9. The run before that keen and wide near 1200m; 3rd of 15 at this track in the G1 Turnbull Stks on October 3 over 2000m, head behind Verry Elleegant with 54.5kg at $5.50. Going as well as ever and has run well in this the past two years. Will run well.

TAB – Runner By Runner Preview

It was a case of déjà vu for Finche in the Caulfield Cup after another torrid run for a consecutive year. Back in 2019, the son of Frankel was trapped three-wide the trip and did extremely well to run 5th behind Mer De Glace. Unfortunately, the Caulfield Cup gut buster might have taken its toll on him as he finished 7th in the 2019 Melbourne Cup as the swoopers ran on over the top him.

History repeated itself in this year’s Caulfield Cup as he was trapped three-wide the duration once again, so there’s every chance we might see Finche vulnerable over the final furlong if the Caulfield Cup run took too much out of his tank. Take on trust.

This French import looked great in his initial Australian campaign, especially that Melbourne Cup fourth when forced to work extremely hard, sitting wide. That mean a lot of people fancied him in the Cup last year, but while he ran seventh, beaten only 1.4len, you were left wanting more, since he had a dream run in transit. Form this time in has been solid, if unspectacular. Came a good third over 1600m, then third again over 2000m, and fifth in the Caulfield Cup. Those are fair runs against top opposition, but he just looks a little less dangerous than he did in the past two springs. Trainer and jockey know what they’re doing though, and there’s a chance Waller’s brought him along a bit more slowly this time to peak on Tuesday. Has a great barrier for McDonald to secure a good spot too. Each way.

I wouldn’t say he’s a non-winner. That said, he doesn’t win often. But I love this horse and I think he’ll run big again. Both his Melbourne Cup runs – seventh last year and fourth the year before – have been great. He’s a really big boy. When you’re next to him behind the barriers you see he’s a big unit, and so you can see he needs the long stretches of Flemington to run well. Plus, when you look at his last start when fifth in the Caulfield Cup, on a smaller track, it was one of the best in the race. He was the first horse caught three-wide, so he raced there without cover from any horse in front of him, which is hard to do. This time, he’s drawn a perfect barrier. J-Mac is a gun rider and he’ll sum it all up before they get to the post the first time. He’d like a free-flowing race, because he’s too big to be going slowly, getting tangled up with other horses and having to change course. But still, he should get the perfect run from that barrier. I wouldn’t say he’s improved since last year but he’s going as well as he was then. I think top four or five for sure.

Far from disgraced at Caulfield last outing. Place.

Very consistent horse and from the draw he can perhaps go forward and push for the lead. He lacks that killer punch to win ridden off speed but if he is up on the pace, he could run a very cheeky race. Think JMac will really suit him and is a horse who will eat up 3200m.

12. Prince Of Arran

Trainer: Charlie Fellowes
Jockey: Jamie Kah
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 1
Odds: 11.00

Has run third and second in this race in the last two years and showed with a fast finishing fourth in the Caulfield Cup that he is back to his best once again. Barrier 1 is a concern though – the in-form Jamie Kah will need to weave some magic from the draw.

Ric Chapman – Palmerbet

Good solid staying handicapper who ran his heart out when 3rd in this race last year. And no-one missed his slashing trial for this when he stormed home from a mile back to grab 4th in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup last start. Is peaking for this, loves this track and off the inside draw will get a glorious run. Big danger.

Two time placegetter in this race. Finished off strongly in the Caulfield Cup when 4th by 1.9L. Capable of winning this.

Bookmaker – Runner Comments

Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. Resuming 3rd in a small field at Kempton Park All Weather in the G3 September Stks on September 5 over 2413m, 7 len behind Enable with 59.5kg at $17. Second run from a spell lacerations; 4th of 18 at Caulfield in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, on a slow track; 2 len behind Verry Elleegant carrying 54.5kg at $17. Terrific form in Australia. Thrives here and Caulfield run was super.

TAB – Runner By Runner Preview

Will it be a case of third time lucky for Prince Of Arran in the 2020 Melbourne Cup? The eight-year-old gelding finished third behind Cross Counter and Marmelo in the 2018 Melbourne Cup, before almost pulling off the Geelong Cup and Melbourne Cup double in 2019, with Vow And Declare nosing out the English stayer in the Melbourne Cup.

Prince Of Arran produced an eye-catching run in the Caulfield Cup, settling at the back of the field for Jamie Kah, before storming home down the outside into 4th behind Verry Elleegant. It was impossible to miss the run and he is ready to make his mark again at Flemington on the first Tuesday in November, but this time, Fellowes and the connections will be hoping that it is a case of first past the post. Big danger.

He’s a regular visitor who’s just about become a folk hero, and they’d tear the grandstand down in celebration if: A. He wins; B. There was anyone there to do the tearing down. He’s on his third trip to Australia. He’s had seven starts here for two wins, four placings, and a fourth last-start in the Caulfield Cup, which was a fantastic run charging home from back in the field. He’s loved here because he just never runs a bad race. He’s done it tough, covering extra ground, in the past two Melbourne Cups and still come third and second. He’s now got the gifted Jamie Kah on board, and she been getting every ounce of ability out of her mounts these past few months (hence her No 1 position on the Melbourne jockeys’ premiership). Just can’t say a bad word about this horse, or his trainer, or his jockey. Place at least. Barrier one is also a big tick. It’s not suitable for some, but the Prince is a manoeuvrable animal.

Jamie Kah is sweeping everything before her this season, and I’m sure she’ll be happy to be on this horse and trying to follow Michelle Payne to become the second female rider to win the race. And there’s some omens there: Michelle jumped from barrier one on Prince Of Penzance. Jamie jumps from barrier one on Prince Of Arran. He’s such a competitor. I’m not saying he’s a champion but he’s just so tough, and doesn’t know how to run a bad race. He finished third in this race two years ago, second last year, and both runs were huge. He’s so honest – he’s like Red Cadeaux, who ran second in this race three times. Still, I don’t want to bag a folk hero, but I can’t see him winning. It’s just age. He’s eight now, and he’s probably just that little bit over the hill. He was on top of the hill last year, but he’s probably started on the downward side now, and a horse needs to be at its optimum level to win this. Still a top half a dozen chance.

Gave a good sight at Caulfield last time out. Can figure here.

Was a great lead up run for this when flying home in the Caufield Cup for 4th and looks set to peak here in his 3rd Melbourne Cup appearance. Barrier 1 allows Jamie Kah to give him a suck run on the fence and save ground trying to replicate Michelle Payne’s ride to win in 2015. I do think he is just a length off class wise for what is required to win the Cup and given that will be playing around him.

13. Surprise Baby

Trainer: Paul Preusker
Jockey: Craig Williams
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 7
Odds: 9.50

Lining up for his second run in this race in just four starts. Probably the run of the race last year when he flew home in a slowly run affair. Barrier 7 is ideal and with a similar preparation to last year, he should prove extremely hard to beat.

Ric Chapman – Palmerbet

Small trivia bit to start, just needs $2000 to become a millionaire and looks well placed to get that. He was a stunning 5th in this race last year coming home form 20th on the bend and did so with a big red light on. Has had two good runs this time up at WFA and was just on 2 lengths behind subsequent Gr 1 Caulfield Cup winner Verry Elleegant in the Turnbull. Has been heavily backed to win this.

Held up then got home well in the Turnbull Stakes when 9th by 2.4L. Winning chance.

Bookmaker – Runner Comments

Third-up today. Resuming 2nd of 8 at Moonee Valley in the G2 Feehan Stakes on September 5 over 1600m, long-neck behind Humidor carrying 59kg at $3.30. Second-up began awkwardly and held up several times; 9th of 15 at this track in the G1 Turnbull Stks on October 3 over 2000m, 2.5 len behind Verry Elleegant carrying 57.5kg at $6. Set for this from a long way out. Huge last year. Big chance.

TAB – Runner By Runner Preview

The Paul Preusker-trained Surprise Baby was flashing home down the outside in the 2019 Melbourne Cup, finishing 5th behind Vow and Declare and will be aiming to go a few spots better during this year’s edition of the race that stops the nation.

This son of 2009 Melbourne Cup winner, Shocking is a former Adelaide Cup winner, so will have no problem staying the two miles and has been fine-tuned for this with a last start 9th in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes which was taken out by Verry Elleegant. The run of Surprise Baby in the Turnbull is much better than it reads as he was kept in a pocket by King Of Leogrance and couldn’t get a clear run until the 200m mark.

He is third-up here and will stay all day. Strong each-way hope.

Probably the strongest of the local hopes, and is an exciting, different stayer with loads of ability. He’s different in that his bush trainer – based at Horsham – goes about things in more of a European style. To wit: this horse won the Adelaide Cup at just his sixth start. He then ran a blinder in last year’s Melbourne Cup, when he drew barrier 20, was just about last on the turn, but ground away powerfully to finished fifth, beaten less than a length. Interesting that Craig Williams, a master jockey who won this last year, “jockeyed” hard to snatch the ride on this horse this spring. Interestingly again, he’s had just the two runs this time in, for a narrow second over 1600m at Moonee Valley, then a ninth in a top-class 2000m race here, won by Verry Elleegant, when Surprise Baby had no luck whatsoever, being blocked behind horses in the straight in one of those run you can forget straight away. Was only beaten 2.4 lengths though, still full of running at the finish. That was a month ago, but trainer Preusker is renowned for making his horses as fit as those proverbial bulls from the nearby Mallee. Would surprise no one, baby, if he wins. Good middle barrier too.

Love it. Absolutely love it. When they hit the post last year, and I thought I’d be coming back to riding (my back has since determined otherwise), I considered ringing the trainer and trying to get the ride for this year. As it is, I reckon Craig Williams – even though he won the race on Vow And Declare – would’ve been on the blower to Paul Preusker that night to try to secure the ride for this year. It ran fifth but should’ve won the race, without a doubt. I’m not potting Jordy Childs, because he’s a tremendous rider, but starting from gate 20, he took it back as you’d expect, but the problem was he just got too far back. Craig is very savvy with the form, and so he’s presumably gone hard to get the ride this year. Form-wise, I’m not gonna say he’s been running great, but he’s been running good. The trainer will know where he’s at and what he needs, and I’d say there’s a lot of improvement in him. And anyway, you can forget about his last start when he was ninth in the 2000m Turnbull Stakes, because he had nowhere to go behind horses. I don’t like unlucky number 13, but I think this horse is top two or three for sure. I finished third to him in last year’s Adelaide Cup on Naval Warfare, and I just said from that day this horse is very special. You know he’ll get the trip, which is a huge start in a race like this, and with a great alley Craig will put him exactly where he wants him.

Freshened. Wasn’t all that far away here at latest. In the mix.

Was the run of the race last year in this race and has been set for this ever since that run. Paul Preusker has kept him fresh for the Cup with only 2 runs this year with a 2nd in the Feehan Stakes and a midfield finish in the Turnbull Stakes when not having much luck. 3200m looks ideal and has drawn ideally in Gate 7 to position midfield and have a good run throughout. A key winning hope especially if the race is run on the slow side early.

14. King Of Leogrance

Trainer: Danny O’Brien
Jockey: Damian Lane
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 18
Odds: 51.00

Already boasts a Cup win at two miles – in this year’s Adelaide Cup. There is a universe of difference between that and the Melbourne Cup but he comes from the right stable and showed with his last start third in the Geelong Cup that he is back near his best. Can run much better than his odds suggest.

Ric Chapman – Palmerbet

A bad draw makes it tough. Was beaten in the Ramsden by Oceanex, was thrashed by Verry Elleegant in the Turnbull and was 3rd to Steel Prince last start in the Geelong Cup. Not keen.

Good run to finish 3rd beaten 0.2L in the Geelong Cup but this is tougher. Prefer to wait and see.

Bookmaker – Runner Comments

Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up began awkwardly; 13th of 15 at this track in the G1 Turnbull Stks on October 3 over 2000m, 4.5 len behind Verry Elleegant carrying 56.5kg at $21. Second run from a spell held up on straightening; 3rd of 9 at Geelong in the G3 Geelong Cup on October 21 over 2400m, 1.5 len behind Steel Prince carrying 58kg at $8.50. Fitter now and Geelong run was good. Stays two miles and while not the best chance here he is far from the worst.

TAB – Runner By Runner Preview

The Group 2 Adelaide Cup winner, King Of Leogrance won’t have a problem running out a strong two miles and will also relish the drop in weight from his last start 3rd in the Geelong Cup. It was a positive sign to see the improvement in the Geelong Cup after a disappointing Turnbull Stakes effort two runs back, where he settled at the tail of the field and failed to pick up the front runners when Damian Lane pushed the button, finishing 13th out of 15 runners.

Ashrun has come out and franked the Geelong Cup form by winning the Hotham Stakes. King Of Leogrance would need to find a few more gears to challenge the top imports in the Melbourne Cup, but goes into exotics as a horse who is proven over the trip.

European import who looked like he’d settled in – after a moderate first Australian campaign last spring – by winning the Adelaide Cup easily this year. Form this time in has been moderate, and sparse, however, with a 13th over 2000m at Flemington first-up followed by a third in that not-all-that-strong Geelong Cup. Plus, those he beat in the Adelaide Cup, a G2, weren’t really top-class. Drawn way out wide as well and you’d think a rough place hope at best. Does, however, come from the team of owner Lloyd Williams, who wins a lot of these.

He’s been going well. Won the Adelaide Cup over this trip last March, was second in the 2800m Andrew Ramsden at Flemington behind Oceanex in May, then last start was third in the Geelong Cup. He’s drawn awkwardly, it probably doesn’t map super well for him as regards where he’s going to be in the run, but he’ll get the trip. The Geelong Cup is normally a good form race, although perhaps this year’s wasn’t as strong as previous years, but he’s a top 10 chance.

Going up in grade. Appears tested.

Adelaide Cup winner earlier this year who comes into this 3rd up after a good run in the Geelong Cup when getting up the fence and running 3rd. He will appreciate the longer journey and a good track is no query for him. Can do worse than him at long odds as he has a sense of timing and is slightly untapped.

15. Russian Camelot

Trainer: Danny O’Brien
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 16
Odds: 13.00

Long touted as the best local chance of winning the Melbourne Cup but he still does too much wrong in his races for a horse looking to settle and run out a strong two miles. Had his chance in the Cox Plate and while his price is getting out to a more realistic quote now, he looks under the odds.

Ric Chapman – Palmerbet

When he resumed in the Gr 1 Makybe Diva and was beaten a long head it was one of the best Melbourne Cup trials you’ve seen. He then won the Gr 1 Underwood, always a good Melbourne Cup guide, easily, before placings in the Gr 1 Caulfield Stakes and Cox Plate. And I think ridden upside down both times. If they let him settle back from this gate and say be 16th or so with cover as they turn, we will all finally see his awesome finishing power.

Fought on well to finish 3rd beaten 1.25L in the Cox Plate and will be aided by the drop in weight. Win wouldn’t shock.

Bookmaker – Runner Comments

Recent form hard to fault. Latest run held ground to the line 3rd of 14 at Moonee Valley in the G1 Cox Plate on October 24 over 2040m, slow going 2 len behind Sir Dragonet with 56.5kg at $3.50. The start before that keen; 2nd in a small field at Caulfield in the G1 Caulfield Stks on October 10 over 2000m, 1.3 len behind Arcadia Queen carrying 56.5kg at $1.40. Game in a gruelling Cox Plate and as good local prospect for this race as there has been in a while. Can win.

TAB – Runner By Runner Preview

The Group 1 Underwood Stakes winner lost no admirers from his performance in the Group 1 Cox Plate last start, finishing 3rd behind the current Melbourne Cup favourite, Sir Dragonet, and Armory. Russian Camelot drew barrier 14 in the Cox Plate, so jockey Damien Oliver had no choice but to push forward on this son of Camelot, who likes to race on speed in his races. Ollie had to use up some petrol early and ultimately it proved the difference as Sir Dragonet was the fresh horse on the scene.

Russian Camelot won the Group 1 2500m SA Derby earlier in the year by close to two lengths, but there has to be a query about him staying the two miles. There’s no knock on his quality but will he run the trip? Dismiss at your own peril.

This British-bred stayer became an instant sensation when he won that SA Derby, having sat wide and rearward throughout and still brained ‘em. He was soon put up near the top of the market for this race. He shapes as one of those great, ground-swallowing English stayers who just keep running and running. (Their stayers are generally better than ours; our sprinters are faster than theirs. Makybe Diva was one such English-bred stayer). He’s very lightly-raced, so should be in tip-top condition for this test. But it is a test. He’s had four runs back this preparation, and has run well, without quite living up to those “sensation” tags earned earlier. Plus, those runs have been over 1600m (2nd), 1800m (first), 2000m (second), and 2040m (third in the Cox Plate). So he’s rising 1200-odd metres for this, and again, until you see them do it, you’ve got to have faith. Still, his light weight is a big help in that department. He’s a big chance, but will probably be an even bigger chance in a year’s time. Barrier not great.

This horse is so exciting. He’s got a ton of ability and can stay, but the only question is whether he’s the finished article yet. He’s gone second-first-second-third in four Group 1s this prep, the latest being in the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley, so he clearly belongs at the top level. But as good as those runs have been, it does seem like we’re making excuses for him a bit. The thing is, he’s inexperienced and still learning, and he does too much wrong – at the moment – to be a really good horse. And he does it inconsistently. He throws his head around one day, he goes left one day, he goes right the next. If the penny ever drops and he gets his head together, he can be a great horse. But as it is, Damien Oliver might have his hands full. If he’d drawn a gate inside of about 11, he’d be a much better chance. But he needs to get cover, and needs to settle well and travel well. His connections probably haven’t worked out his favoured racing pattern yet. The other problem is, neither has the horse! If he gets his stuff together, he’ll run well. Olly’s got to caress him right before the race – get him nice and calm before the start. At least he should race better around Flemington than Moonee Valley. I’d still put him in the top half dozen, because he’s got such ability.

Stalked pace and kept on okay to place at Moonee Valley last outing. Place claims.

One of best horses in Australia who was brilliant in the Cox Plate when having to make a long run out deep on the course. He will be ridden quieter here and put to sleep in the early stages to help him run the distance. He no doubt has the class but I just wonder whether this year’s Cup has come too soon for him. He is one horse I’m risking as feel 3200m and his immaturity are big queries.

16. Steel Prince

Trainer: Team Freedman
Jockey: William Pike
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 21
Odds: 41.00

Ran ninth in this race last year, and probably comes here in better form, having won the Geelong Cup last start. Think top six is probably his ceiling and the barrier (21) doesn’t help.

Ric Chapman – Palmerbet

This is such a tough, honest horse who beat a weaker field in the Geelong Cup recently. That race has been a good Melbourne Cup guide. His task has been made tough by this grade.

Tough winner of the Geelong Cup by 0.2L but this is much harder. Looks safely held.

Bookmaker – Runner Comments

Latest start favourite; raced just off the speed and boxed on; won by a head Geelong G3 Geelong Cup October 21 over 2400m defeating Le Don De Vie with 57.5kg at $3.50. The start before that raced wide without cover; came from midfield; 3rd of 15 at this track in the G3 Bart Cummings on October 3 over 2510m, 1.1 len behind Persan carrying 58kg at $7.50. Very game at Geelong. This will require more but he’s a likeable horse that will stay two miles.

TAB – Runner By Runner Preview

Steel Prince ran 7th in the Geelong Cup and 9th in the Melbourne Cup last year, but appears to have come back in better order this time around. He was third-up in the Group 3 Bart Cummings, finishing 3rd behind Persan, who clearly had his measure. He then booked his spot in the Melbourne Cup courtesy of his grinding victory over Le Don De Vie in the Geelong Cup. Ashrun, who finished 4th in the Geelong Cup has franked the form by taking out the Hotham Stakes.

If he couldn’t beat Persan in the Bart Cummings, it’s hard to see how he turns the tables on him here and those at the top of Melbourne Cup betting. Take on trust.

This tough local stayer beat Surprise Baby in the 2800m Ramsden Stakes at Flemington in May last year to earn his berth in last year’s Melbourne Cup, where he performed admirably. That Ramsden was his fifth win in a row. He hasn’t quite replicated that sort of form in the year and a half since, but showed he was going well by winning the Geelong Cup over 2400m last start. Ashrun was fourth that day and made the form look good in taking out Saturday’s Hotham. Steel Prince didn’t win the Geelong Cup by much, however, and it wasn’t one of the better editions of the race. He’ll try his best, like he usually does. The wide gate is a shocker though, but Vow And Declare won from there last year. Place best.

I like this horse. He’s not flamboyant, he’s just good and tradesman-like – he’s one of these grinding, reliable stayers who gets the job done, like he did in winning the Geelong Cup last start. Gate 21 looks bad, but I won a Cup from there on Shocking. But still, wide gates in Melbourne Cups aren’t easy. Obviously everyone wants to draw soft. Sometimes, if you’re wide, you’ve got horses you really don’t want to bustle to get into a spot, because once you rev them up you just can’t settle them back down again, and in a two-mile race that will kill you. Verry Elleegant seems that way to me, for example. I was caught wide on Shocking. In fact, I was the only person to travel three-deep the whole way, and I could feel the trainer Mark Kavanagh’s hands around my neck at about the 1800m. I pushed and shoved as much as I could to get a spot, but you get to the point, probably around the 1800m, where you’ve just got to stop working the horse and accept your position. But I was really fortunate because the race that year was run so slowly. On my inside everyone was yelling and clipping heels through the race, but I was allowed to just bowl along and let my horse flow, right down till about the 1200m mark, when things quickened up. Willie Pike’s a top rider of course, and should be able to avoid revving this bloke too much. All that said, while the horse’s form has been good, I just think this year’s Cup might be a bit strong for him.

Meeting stronger company. Can’t have.

Was a good run in this race last year and is coming in this time in better form and without injury concerns. He toughed it out well at Geelong to win the Cup there and was good the start prior in the Bart Cummings. His problem is he doesn’t have the class to win this race and the barrier means he will likely be posted wide. Needs a fair few horse to run below their best to figure in the big money.

17. The Chosen One

Trainer: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman
Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 5
Odds: 46.00

Had the run of the race in the Caulfield Cup and finished third at cricket score odds. Draws to get a good run again so could fluke a top four finish if things go his way.

Ric Chapman – Palmerbet

What a fascinating runner. Gets the perfect gate and can be back in pack in about 6th all the way. Did sprint quickly and impressively to grab 3rd in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup recently behind Verry Elleegant and Anthony Van Duck. Place show.

Brilliant effort to finish 3rd in the Caulfield Cup last start. Drawn well and can be thrown in your multiples.

Bookmaker – Runner Comments

Latest start began awkwardly and checked near 300m; 3rd of 18 at Caulfield in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, slow going 1.0 len behind Verry Elleegant with 53.5kg at $61. Before that raced three wide; 7th of 9 at Caulfield in the G2 Herbert Power on October 10 over 2400m, 5 len behind Chapada with 58kg at $11. Ran a cracker in the Caulfield Cup but this is harder again.

TAB – Runner By Runner Preview

The Chosen One surpassed expectations to run 3rd as a $61 chance in the Caulfield Cup, and was a Sydney Cup runner-up earlier in the year, so should be able to stay the trip here. This son of Savabeel ran 17th in last year’s Melbourne Cup, so it would take some trust to rely on him to back up his huge Caulfield Cup effort. Happy to risk.

Managed to claim third place at big odds in the Caulfield Cup last start. That was a great result, and he’s got the same weight and a good barrier here, but it was a shock, after finishing seventh and eighth in nine-horse fields. His Sydney Cup second was behind Etah James, who can’t be given that much chance here. And in this race last year he was 17th. Could perhaps sneak a place with some favours in transit.

I think this one might surprise a few people. He ran very well in the Caulfield Cup to hang on for third, leading until getting collared in the straight, but he fought on very strongly. Daniel’s a good jockey in great form. He’s drawn soft, he’ll get a perfect run from there, and I think he’ll run well. He ran second over this trip in the Sydney Cup this year. OK, that wasn’t half as strong a race as this, but the trainers, especially Murray Baker, he’s a freak with stayers. If he’s got the horse he’ll put it in the right race. I’d say top six for me. He fought on strongly in the Caulfield Cup. He’s a one-paced type, rather than a horse who’ll go bang with a big sprint at the finish, but I think he’ll run well.

Not fancied.

He was brilliant in the Caulfield Cup when running 3rd but was given a brilliant ride by Dan Stackhouse and had every chance. He was long odds there and was well beaten in this race last year when he didn’t stay the trip. I’m happy to be against the Kiwi here and would be really surprised if he won.

18. Ashrun

Trainer: Andreas Wohler
Jockey: Declan Bates
Weight: 53kg
Barrier: 24
Odds: 17.00

Forced his way into the field with a dour, one paced win in the Hotham Handicap on Saturday over 2500m. Probably ends up near last from barrier 24 and looks up against it.

Ric Chapman – Palmerbet

This could be a better horse than we all think. He is genuine and tough and can stay all day. in fact, he is in this up to his eyeballs with this lightweight. The way he rounded them up and finished off to win last Saturday’s Gr 3 Hotham, a good lead up race to this, with 61kg says he is fit and ready. Drops out from this gate and runs on.

Backing up quickly today after a strong win in the Hotham Handicap by 0.1L. Each way the play.

Bookmaker – Runner Comments

Latest outing ran on strongly from last on the turn and won by a nose this track G3 Hotham Stakes October 31 over 2500m defeating Sound carrying 61kg at $5.50. Before that hung out on straightening; 4th of 9 at Geelong in the G3 Geelong Cup on October 21 over 2400m, 1.5 len behind Steel Prince carrying 58.5kg at $6. Big close to win his way in on Saturday. Rating gives him a hope and he wants two miles. Can he go again?

TAB – Runner By Runner Preview

Australian Bloodstock and Andreas Wohler had success in the 2014 Melbourne Cup, with Protectionist and will have another shot at the prize after Ashrun booked his spot in Tuesday’s field with a strong victory in the Group 3 Hotham Stakes.

It will be a sigh of relief for connections after Ashrun could only manage 4th in the Geelong Cup and had to win the Hotham to qualify for the Melbourne Cup. He had back-to-back runner-up finishes at Deauville over 3000m in Listed and Group 2 company respectively, so he should run out a strong two miles and his Geelong Cup and Hotham Stakes efforts suggest that he has acclimatised to Australia very nicely. Right in the mix.

Here we have him – the horse who comes in having won the Hotham on Saturday. Horses can win coming through that route, such as Shocking in 2009, but it is a tough road to travel. He had to be stretched to the limit to win that race as well, which came after a fair fourth in the Geelong Cup over 2400m at his first Australian start. But, he’s trained by the shrewd German veteran Andreas Wohler, who won this race – the first time a German has – with Protectionist in 2014. He drops a huge eight kilos from the Hotham win to carry just 53 here. He had 59kg and 57kg in those two 3000m second placings in France before catching the plane. The big problem, though, is the barrier. He’ll need to be a super horse to win from there.

He did a Shocking in winning the Hotham on Saturday. He only just got there in the last couple of strides but he ran very well. He just flopped out of the barriers and was a few lengths behind at the tail on settling. He had to rebuild from there, so the win was probably better than it looked. He was fourth in the Geelong Cup before that, and his European form looks OK. The trainer’s won this before with Protectionist and clearly knows what he’s doing. There is the quick back-up from Saturday to consider. It suited Shocking, but a lot of horses can’t do it. But European stayers being so tough, he should be tough enough. The way these Europeans are trained – they get miles and miles into their legs before they race each preparation, whereas we tend to get our horses fitter through racing. So while the Europeans generally have longer gaps between races, looking up and finding he’s in his second race in four days shouldn’t be too onerous for him. He’ll run well. The big trouble of course is his awful barrier. I expect he’ll go back. I’d have him around the border of the top 10.

On a quick back-up. Charged late to get up in final bounds here last start. Place preferred.

Australian Bloodstock and Andreas Wohler know what it takes to win a Melbourne Cup having had Protectionist win in 2014. This guy has been good at both Australian runs and looks set to run a big race here. Loved his win in the Lexus Hotham on Saturday when out sprinting his rivals with 61kgs. He now drops to 53kgs and he will love the step up to 3200m. The barrier may look bad on paper but it just means Dec will keep him out of trouble and have clear galloping room. Massive winning chance.

19. Warning

Trainer: Team Freedman
Jockey: Luke Currie
Weight: 53kg
Barrier: 8
Odds: 46.00

Won the VRC Derby last year and hasn’t threatened to win another race since. No.

Ric Chapman – Palmerbet

Going to be running on. Won the Gr 1 VRC Derby here last year and his runs this time up had been great until he plodded home for 12th in the Caulfield Cup. This has always been his target though and can improve.

Hasn’t won for a while. Battled on in the Caulfield Cup when 12th by 5.2L. This looks too tough.

Bookmaker – Runner Comments

Latest outing overraced middle stages and one paced; 12th of 18 at Caulfield in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, slow going 5 len behind Verry Elleegant with 53kg at $21. The run before that 6th of 15 at this track in the G1 Turnbull Stks on October 3 over 2000m, 1.0 len behind Verry Elleegant with 56.5kg at $61. Derby winner. Never easy to come back 12 months on and compete here. Fringe hope.

TAB – Runner By Runner Preview

Last year’s Victoria Derby winner has failed to fire many shots in his three starts during this campaign. He appeared to be doing his best work late in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes over 2000m two starts back, running on for 6th, but has since disappointed in the Caulfield Cup, finishing well back in 12th.

He hasn’t won since his Vic Derby success almost a year ago, so it would take a major form reversal for him to cause a boilover here.

Interesting runner, by the same sire as last year’s winner, and he’s seeking to emulate the likes of Efficient in winning the Derby one year and Cup the next. Mind you, Efficient was the last to do that, and his Cup win was 13 years ago, and the last horse to do something similar was Delta (1949 and 1951). Horses often win the Derby because they’re early bloomers, then the others catch up. That said, Warning looked good in his two starts back this spring – a seventh over 1600m and a sixth over 2000m – but you’d have like him to do more than his 12th, beaten 5.2 lengths, in the Caulfield Cup. Particularly with an eye on the extra 800m here. Barrier does help his chance a little though.

Can he emulate Efficient in winning the VRC Derby one year and the Cup the next? I’m not too sure. He’s been running OK without running great: a sixth in the Turnbull Stakes over 2000m, but then 12th in the Caulfield Cup. When he won the Derby last year, I thought he’d go on and be – not a champion, but better than what he’s done. There’s lots of theories about winning the Derby, because a lot of its winners don’t kick on: Does it burn out a young horse? Were they just the early bloomers and then the other three-year-olds caught up with their physical development? I think one thing that’s true is that you don’t have to be a great stayer to win that 2500m race, running against other early season three-year-olds who mightn’t be up for the trip. I won it on what turned out to be a 1600m horse in Monaco Consul in 2009. It’s more how tough they are, rather than if they’re a true stayer. So then a year later you tend to find out if they are genuine stayers. The jury’s still out on Warning, but I think he’s levelled out a bit, and he’ll have to improve a lot on his Caulfield Cup. As a jockey, I also don’t like Luke Currie getting down to ride at 53kg. He’d have had to waste – lose weight – pretty hard to get there. I think Luke at his best is 54.5kg or above. Getting down to 53 for an energy-sapping two-mile trip, is a tough proposition.

Cannot entertain.

His a very good Flemington horse this guy and his only run here over further than 2400m he was dominant in the VRC Derby. The query though in this race is his class and he was well beaten in the Caulfield Cup last time. Can see him running top 10 but doubt he can figure on the podium.

20. Etah James

Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Jockey: Billy Egan
Weight: 52.5kg
Barrier: 22
Odds: 126.00

Took out the Sydney Cup on heavy ground in the autumn but would need to start running on Monday to win here.

Ric Chapman – Palmerbet

This is an 8YO mare. Do they ever win the Cup? Hmmm, no but this one is sooo tough. She ploughed through the mud to win the Gr 1 3200m Sydney Cup earlier this year. And her two starts since resuming have been strong, last start making good ground when 4th in the Moonee Valley Cup to Miami Bound. Place.

Even effort when 4th beaten 4L in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Not here.

Bookmaker – Runner Comments

Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up slowly away and eased near 800m; 13th of 18 at Randwick in the G1 The Metrop on October 3 over 2400m, 8 len behind Mirage Dancer carrying 53.5kg at $51. Second run from a spell 4th of 12 at Moonee Valley in the G2 M.V. Gold Cup on October 24 over 2500m, on a slow track; 4 len behind Miami Bound with 56kg at $31. Valley run was good and two miles suits. But surely not good enough.

TAB – Runner By Runner Preview

The Sydney Cup winner enters the Melbourne Cup on the back of a disappointing effort in The Metropolitan, finishing almost nine lengths off the winner, Mirage Danger. She showed improvement to finish 4th in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, but was still no match for Miami Bound, who she encounters again here.

She’s an honest campaigner who took out the Sydney Cup over this trip seven months ago. Possibly not the worst hope for sneaking a place amongst the longshots, but she is up against it. Terrible barrier, and she’s eight years old, which is generally too old to win this. Did improve last start, however, when fourth in the Moonee Valley Cup, but she’s not one you’d back with any confidence whatsoever.

While she won the Sydney Cup last autumn, she’s an eight-year-old mare and her more recent form has been ordinary. Great for the owners to have a horse in the Melbourne Cup. It’s part of what racing’s all about. I wish them well but I don’t think she’ll trouble the scorers, even though Billy Egan’s a great rider.

Rising in grade. Rank outsider.

She will stay all day this mare and can roll forward. She toughed it out well to win the Sydney Cup earlier this year and ran a nice race in the Moonee Valley Cup. Grand Final stable and think she can surprise a few and run in the top 10.

21. Tiger Moth

Trainer: Aiden O’Brien
Jockey: Kerrin Mcevoy
Weight: 52.5kg
Barrier: 23
Odds: 7.50

A three-year-old by northern hemisphere time who is the veteran of just four starts, his first start outside of maiden grade saw him run second in the Irish Derby in June, and he has had just one run since, an explosive victory in the Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown in mid-September.

This formula has proven successful in recent years though with Cross Counter (2018) and Rekindling (2017) both being northern hemisphere three-year-olds with light weights. Those two were more experienced and had less weight, but Tiger Moth could be the most talented of the bunch. If Kerrin McEvoy can have some luck from barrier 23, he will take a power of beating.

Ric Chapman – Palmerbet

How does a young horse with just four race starts behind him and the 23 gate, have a hope here? Well, if Aiden O’Brien trains him and those close to him say he is a star in the making, then he does rate highly. Watch the market.

Won well in the Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown last time out. Strong chance with the light weight.

Bookmaker – Runner Comments

Second-up today. Freshened for 52 days. First-up after three months favourite; won by 4 len Leopardstown G3 Kilternan Stks September 12 over 2414m defeating Silence Please carrying 58.5kg at $1.80. Previously second-up 2nd of 14 at Curragh in the G1 Irish Derby on June 27 over 2414m, head behind Santiago carrying 58kg at $12. Just four starts. World class stable and a huge profile. Big engine and must go well.

TAB – Runner By Runner Preview

Champion Irish trainer, Aidan O’Brien will be hoping that 2020 is finally the year in which he takes the Melbourne Cup back to Ireland. He finished 3rd in last year’s race courtesy of Il Paradiso, and went very close in 2017 when Johannes Vermeer finished runner-up behind Rekindling, who in a bittersweet blow was trained by his son, Joseph.

O’Brien will go into this year’s race full of confidence, with Tiger Moth and Caulfield Cup runner-up, Anthony Van Dyck at the top of the betting. The lightly-raced Tiger Moth only has four career starts to his name, but was nosed out by stablemate, Santiago in the Group 1 Irish Derby two runs back, and then made amends with a scintillating victory by four lengths in the Group 3 Kilternan Stakes last time out.

There’s no questioning the talent of this four-year-old Galileo stallion, but he hasn’t had an Australian run and might not have the kilometres in the legs to stay a strong 3200m. Bet on talent.

Here’s this year’s flag-bearer for the lightly-raced, lightly-weight GB/IRE category, which hatched winners Rekindling (2017) and Cross Counter (2018). To win a Melbourne Cup at your fifth start would’ve sounded ridiculous only a few years ago, but this is the horse profile you seem to want in this race these days. He was a narrow second in the Irish Derby before strolling away with the weaker Kilternan Stakes. Steps up 800m here of course, so you’ll need faith in trainer O’Brien, but he does know what he’s doing, even if he hasn’t won one of these yet. Importantly, he’s carried between 58 and 60.5kg in his four runs, and drops to just 52.5kg here. He also has Kerrin McEvoy, who’s a superb rider and won three of these things. Has a good deal going for him – almost as much going for him as a horse can short of being proven at 3200m. The big handicap is the wide gate, but this is offset by his light weight, which could allow jockey to use a bit of fuel early to grab a good spot.

This is an interesting runner. Great trainer, great jockey, who’s won three of these before. This horse is a bit of an unknown quantity in that he’s only had four starts, and hasn’t raced here yet. A few years ago you wouldn’t dream of a horse like that running in a Melbourne Cup, but this is now the profile of the Europeans that seems to work well, if you look at Rekindling and Cross Counter. This horse ran second in the Irish Derby then bolted in in a Group 3. Both were 2400m races, and again you don’t mind the step up in distance, especially with his light weight. He’s also drawn badly, but again the light weight helps you manoeuvre your horse to get a spot. If Macca gets any sort of luck from the barrier, he can win his fourth Cup. Good horse, unbelievable trainer, awful barrier. It is very hard being drawn out there, but he’s a great rider and if he gets a bit of luck I wouldn’t be surprised by any means if he wins.

Back from a let-up. Won in easy fashion at Ire – Leopardstown last time out. Gets in light. Take beating.

Long time Melbourne Cup favourite who has drawn awkwardly in Gate 23. He comes here having won the Kilternan Stakes in brilliant fashion and before that he ran 2nd in the Irish Derby. His the right profile of horse for the modern day Melbourne Cup and is well weighted. Has to be one of the key winning hopes.

22. Oceanex

Trainer: Mick Kent & Michael Price
Jockey: Dean Yendall
Weight: 51.5kg
Barrier: 17
Odds: 67.00

Won her way into the field by winning the Andrew Ramsden Stakes back in the autumn and her last start in the Moonee Valley Cup was better. Top ten chance at best.

Ric Chapman – Palmerbet

Good handicapper who was 3rd behind Miami Bound in the recent Moonee Vallet Cup but that form’s not good enough.

Improved effort when 3rd in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup but this is harder again. Looks outclassed.

Bookmaker – Runner Comments

Useful type. Latest start made some head-way from midfield; 3rd of 12 at Moonee Valley in the G2 M.V. Gold Cup on October 24 over 2500m, on a slow track; 3 len behind Miami Bound with 55kg at $10. The run before that led to the turn and faded badly second last of 15 at this track in the G1 Turnbull Stks on October 3 over 2000m, 4.5 len behind Verry Elleegant carrying 55.5kg at $101. Found her form last time but may lack a gear that the top chances have here.

TAB – Runner By Runner Preview

Oceanex was completed outclassed in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes, before showing improvement to run 3rd in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. She does have a good record at the track, with three wins from five starts at Flemington, but could be aiming too high in Group 1 company if her Turnbull failure is a good guide.

Won over 2800m at this track, in lesser quality race. That race was the Andrew Ramsden Stakes in May. The winner of that qualifies for the Melbourne Cup, but it is only Listed class (Group 1 is best among the top four tiers of races, then G2, G3, and then Listed). Since then, she’s had a spell and come back with three flops – but over unsuitable shorter distances – before going better when stepping up to 2500m for third in the Moonee Valley Cup. She had 55kg that day, carried 56kg when winning the Ramsden, and tumbles to just 51.5kg here. The concerns are the class factor, and the fact she led into the straight and weakened at Moonee Valley, and needs to go an extra 700m here, which is a lot. Poor gate too.

This mare has a nice light weight, but just a fair barrier. Her form’s OK, with a last-start third in the 2500m Moonee Valley Cup. That can be a bit of a form race for this. Prince Of Penzance ran second in it and then won the Cup in 2015. But still, that race wasn’t strong this year and while I hate potting horses, she’ll need to improve a lot to figure here.

Goes to another level. No appeal.

Booked her ticket in the race when winning the Andrew Ramsden earlier this year and post that race it was evident, she would be making up the numbers and I think it’s fair to stand by that. Has had hoof problems during the week also which is never ideal.

23. Miami Bound

Trainer: Danny O’Brien
Jockey: Daniel Moor
Weight: 51kg
Barrier: 13
Odds: 34.00

Last year’s VRC Oaks winner showed she is back to near her best with an authoritative last start win in the Moonee Valley Cup. Not sure that is the right form line this year but could run top four with some luck.

Ric Chapman – Palmerbet

What a fascinating mare. Won the VRC Oaks this time last year but hadn’t done a worthwhile thing since until last start, at $31, she produced a powerhouse finish to win the Gr 2 Moonee Valley Cup. Has a Gr 1 win this track and carries no weight.

Ran on strongly to win the Moonee Valley Gold Cup by 2.5L but rises in class today, Exotics chance at best.

Bookmaker – Runner Comments

Latest start won by 2.5 len Moonee Valley G2 M.V. Gold Cup October 24 over 2500m on rain affected going defeating Shared Ambition carrying 54kg at $26. The run before that tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 6th of 9 at Caulfield in the G2 Herbert Power on October 10 over 2400m, 4 len behind Chapada carrying 54kg at $21. Big win last week and the time was strong. Another level required here all the same.

TAB – Runner By Runner Preview

Trainer Danny O’Brien will have Russian Camelot, Vow And Declare, King Of Leogrance and Miami Bound flying the flag for the stable and will be hoping this 4-year-old mare can be a knockout hope with only 51kgs on her back. She is a former Group 1 VRC Oaks winner and enters the Melbourne Cup on the back of a surging victory by two and half lengths over Shared Ambition in the Group 2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup.

It’s hard to knock her Moonee Valley Gold Cup win, but it was a Group 2 and her last outing in Group 1 company, albeit over 1600m was a disappointing 15th in the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes. She has two wins and two minor placings from five runs at Flemington, and has no weight on her back, so can’t be left out of exotics.

Looked like she was back to her best in winning the MV Cup last start, her first win in seven starts since her Oaks triumph last spring. Drops 3kg off Moonee Valley run, and has a strong record at this track, where she can stretch right out. This is longest test of her career, of course. She looks like she’ll get the trip, but again, could be better with year with 12 months more development in her.

She won the Moonee Valley Cup, and won the 2500m VRC Oaks last spring. She’s lightly weighted, drawn OK. I think she’s a bit of a sneaky runner and I’ve put her in my top 10. Like I say, I do like looking at the Moonee Valley Cup as a form reference for this, but I reckon – four-year-old mare, stepping up into a tough race like this. I think she’ll finish midfield or so.

Rises in class. Appears tested.

VRC Oaks winner who was brilliant winning the Moonee Valley Cup. If this was a wet track, she would be a winning hope as she swims but with the drying conditions her hopes have drastically diminished. Hard to see her figuring in the finish.

24. Persan

Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Jockey: Michael Dee
Weight: 51kg
Barrier: 20
Odds: 41.00

Another automatic qualifier, he won his way into the field by taking out the Bart Cummings a month ago. The form has proven to be just fair, and he is deservedly at big odds.

Ric Chapman – Palmerbet

This could be a dark horse. Has no weight but has a lot of staying talent and more than that, he is very honest. Comfortably beat Steel Prince last start, so can run a bold race.

Ran on well to take out The Bart Cummings last start by 1L. Rough place chance here.

Bookmaker – Runner Comments

Comes off a 31 day let-up. Latest run won by 1.0 len this track G3 Bart Cummings October 3 over 2510m defeating Sound carrying 55kg at $10. The race before that came from midfield; 2nd of 10 at this track Qlty on September 12 over 2500m, head behind Lord Belvedere carrying 56kg at $3.30. Been on the bounce right through winter. He’s a ripper but this is his toughest test. Would be a surprise.

TAB – Runner By Runner Preview

Persan might not be as fancied as stablemate and Cox Plate winner, Sir Dragonet in Melbourne Cup betting, but this son of Pierro has been a model of consistency since making the move to the Maher and Eustace stable. He has six victories and four minor placings in 10 starts for the stable.

It has been a quick rise for Persan, who only broke his maiden at Bendigo back in May and booked his spot in the Melbourne Cup with a strong win in the Group 3 Bart Cummings. He loves racing at Flemington with four wins from five starts and is one of the value hopes in the field from an in-form stable. Don’t dismiss.

The last of those three was his length win in The Bart Cummings here on October 3, which bought his ticket into this race, for which he drops from 55kg to 51. Very hard to bag this horse, who was switched to Victoria earlier this year, and whose form since reads 10: 6-3-1. Is he seasoned or classy enough to do well here though? That last start was his first placing at Black Type level, and was only a Group 3. It means he’s taken the low road to qualify, whereas others have screamed in with G1 wins. Still, there’s usually an unsung lightweight who sneaks a place in this race. He will have to see out a searching 3200m though, and you wonder if he’ll be better suited next year. Barrier no help.

He’s an honest horse and he’s got a fantastic record since switching to this training team. Won last time out, in The Bart Cummings over 2500m at Flemington, where he races well. However, most of his recent form has been achieved at levels lower than this. Has a nice light weight which could help him finish top 10. And Michael Dee’s a very good rider but he’ll have his work cut out from that barrier. Top 10 maybe.

Freshened. Stiffer challenge here. Can’t have.