The following is a survey of Australian racing tips for Thursday, November 5. The focus is on the full race card at Flemington, which includes the Group 1 Kennedy Oaks (Race 8). More tips and previews will be added as they become available.
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Best bets
Please note that these may change leading up to the race day.
Race 1: No. 2 November Dreaming
Race 3: No. 6 Ancestry
Race 8: No. 1 Montefilia
Race 9: No. 6 Written Beauty
Flemington
Race 8: Montefilia (1.80)
Race 1:
NOVEMBER DREAMING (2) Second up from a spell. Got the cash when winning last time at Geelong but rises in weight today. Must be considered. NIGHT WITCHES (4) Put in a competitive run when placing 3rd two runs back at Warwick Farm but will have to carry extra weight today. Always seems to find the line well. Could go well. TRALEE ROSE (7) Having second run back from a break. Comprehensive victory when winning last start at Warrnambool and will try to take advantage of the gate. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Deserves consideration. OCEAN’S THIRTEEN (1) Showed promise when winning two runs back at Ballarat but hoping that the added weight won’t hurt. Should be going forward early. Could go well.
Race 2:
FAKE LOVE (1) Solid effort when winning last time at Caulfield and was a debutant last start. Capable of taking this out. TEMPEST CHARM (2) Charged home into 3rd last start at Moonee Valley and having second career run. Key player. NAPLES (5) Produced an eye catching run when 3rd last run at Caulfield and fitter for debut run. Follow market leads. NICE FOR WHAT (12) Shalaa 2yo on debut for trainer Ciaron Maher and David Eustace. One that represents value at a decent price.
Race 3:
ANCESTRY (6) Won last run at Moonee Valley and expecting to settle positively. Unbeaten this preparation with 3 wins from 3 starts. Hard to dismiss. FIESTA (7) Was first to greet the judge when winning last start at the track and possesses good closing speed. Massive hope. GRAFF (1) Having second run back from a spell. Solid effort when winning last time at Caulfield. Should get a lovely cart into it from just behind the pace. Better claims. VARDA (9) Proven record when resuming with 2 wins from 3 starts. Brave effort to win last time at Randwick but facing a stronger grade today. Success in a barrier trial at Hawkesbury on Oct 19th. Big danger.
Race 4:
TINANDALI (11) Ended up more than 6l from the winner at Windsor last start on a good track. Expecting improvement but first up today. Expecting to settle just off the pace. This field suits. PANCHO (8) Snuck in a place when 2nd last run at Randwick but carrying more weight than last time. Must respect in this event. ADELAIDE ACE (5) Ran past a few when 4th last time at Moonee Valley and goes down in weight. Should get going late. Warrants a bet. BARTHOLOMEU DIAS (3) Second up. Displayed potential when winning three runs back at Sandown but hoping that the added weight won’t hurt. Marginal hopes.
Race 5:
HOUSAY (8) Bold effort to win two runs back at Ballarat and gets some weight taken off today. Could prove hard to beat. SKY PUNCH (3) Proven record first up with 3 wins from 5 attempts. Was first to greet the judge when winning last run at Morphettville and suited at this distance in the past. Well placed and has solid claims. CAFFREY (6) Fresh from a spell. Won narrowly last time at Sandown and can save some energy from the barrier. Better claims. STAR MISSILE (4) Ran on strongly when 3rd three runs back at Caulfield and shows very good closing speed. Could run into the money.
Race 6:
I AM ELOQUENT (3) Charged home into 2nd last time at Moonee Valley but bit of extra work to do with more weight today. Likely to get a nice run behind the speed. Go close. ROCHA CLOCK (5) Ended up 3.3l from the winner at Randwick last time on a good surface but finishes off strongly. Inclined to respect any betting moves and presents good prospects. THE CLOSER (6) Was 1.7l behind the winner at Caulfield last start on a soft track but dropping in class. Expecting to settle positively. Respect. STROME (4) Brave effort to win last run at Caulfield. Should get a lovely cart into it from just behind the leaders. No surprise to see a forward showing and one of the main hopes in this race.
Race 7:
HIGH EXCALEBRATION (6) Got the upper hand late when winning last start at Sale and gets some weight taken off today. Should muster plenty of early speed. Been in the money 6 from 7 attempts this campaign. Each way hope. MERCHANT OF VENICE (20) Kept finding the line when 3rd two runs back at Hamilton and will be hitting the line strongly. Hard to knock and looks a nice each way proposition. EASY BEAST (3) Fair result placing 3rd two runs back at Cranbourne but hoping that the added weight won’t hurt. Likely to fill a place. VUNGERS (8) Having third run back from a spell. Was strong on the speed before fading to finish 2nd last time at Horsham and dropping weight today. Sound chances.
Race 8:
MONTEFILIA (1) Solid win last run in the Spring Champion Stakes. Should get a lovely cart into it from just behind the leaders. Racing consistently this preparation. This race looks suitable and is hard to overlook. PERSONAL (2) Did its best work late when 2nd last run in the Wakeful Stakes and very competitive this preparation. Likely to get a nice run behind the speed. No shock to see a win. MIRAVALLE (6) Racing for the second time this week. Came on strongly to finish 4th last run in the Wakeful Stakes and displays good finishing speed. Right in this. TYCHE GODDESS (7) Placed 3rd last start in the Wakeful Stakes and on a quick back up. Been in the money 4 from 5 attempts this campaign. Worth at least a place bet in this race.
Race 9:
WRITTEN BEAUTY (6) Was very impressive when winning last start at Moonee Valley and shows good early pace. Flying this campaign with 2 wins from 2 starts. Definite winning chance. CHIANTI (13) Scored a victory three runs back at Hawkesbury and carrying less weight this time. Has to be strongly considered. MINHAAJ (4) Kept finding the line when 3rd last run at the track and having third run back from a break. Interesting gear change of blinkers on first time. Strong each way hope. BELLA NIPOTINA (2) Came on strongly to finish 2nd last start at Moonee Valley. Has run into the money 3 from 4 attempts this campaign. Can take this out.
Race 1: November Dreaming
Race 2: Tempest Charm
Race 3: Garner each-way
Race 4: Savaheat each-way
Race 5: Sky Punch
Race 6: Game of Thorns each-way
Race 8: Montefilia
Race 9: Written Beauty (win) and Celestine (each way)
Race 1:
2. November Dreaming, 1. Ocean’s Thirteen, 3. Palumbo, 7. Tralee Rose, 4. Night Witches
Race 2:
1. Fake Love, 2. Tempest Charm, 5. Naples, 9. Dosh, 12. Nice For What
Race 3:
1. Graff, 6. Ancestry, 9. Varda, 7. Fiesta, 8. Villami
Race 4:
3. Bartholomeu Dias, 11. Tinandali, 5. Adelaide Ace, 8. Pancho, 7. Matowi
Race 5:
4. Star Missile, 8. Housay, 11. Address Melbourne, 6. Caffrey, 3. Sky Punch
Race 6:
5. Rocha Clock, 3. I Am Eloquent, 6. The Closer, 2. Akari, 4. Strome
Race 7:
9. Denero, 8. Vungers, 4. Kaplumpich, 13. Pres de Toi, 2. Blinder
Race 8:
1. Montefilia, 6. Miravalle, 2. Personal, 7. Tyche Goddess
Race 9:
6. Written Beauty, 4. Minhaaj, 2. Bella Nipotina, 10. Celestine, 9. Maha
Race 1:
2. November Dreaming, 7. Tralee Rose, 8. Perennial, 9. La Marsa
Race 2:
12. Nice For What, 9. Dosh, 2. Tempest Charm, 1. Fake Love
Race 3:
6. Ancestry, 1. Graff, 9. Varda, 8. Villami
Race 4:
5. Adelaide Ace, 11. Tinandali, 8. Pancho, 7. Matowi
Race 5:
8. Housay, 3. Sky Punch, 6. Caffrey, 4. Star Missile
Race 6:
4. Strome, 3. I Am Eloquent, 11. Game Of Thorns, 12. Miss Inbetween
Race 8:
1. Montefilia, 2. Personal, 6. Miravalle, 3. Cafe Rizu
Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:
Race 1:
NOVEMBER DREAMING started favourite in a Group 2 race in Adelaide last prep. She wasn’t disgraced but perhaps it’s this prep that she can measure up to a level like that. On the way to that level she’s nicely placed in a BM70 judging by her first-up win. She’s unbeaten second up. NIGHT WITCHES was progressing beautifully before her last run. There may have been some excuses. She’s drawn well. OCEAN’S THIRTEEN was okay last time in a much harder race. She’s up to 62kg but she has won a race with 61.5kg. TRAGIC has come back well and looks ready for the 1700m. SABRE PRINCESS and TRAGIC have chances.
Selections: 2. November Dreaming (top tip), 4. Night Witches, 1. Ocean’s Thirteen, 6. Tragic
Race 2:
Good race. DOSH and NICE FOR WHAT were the debutantes who caught the eye at the jumpouts. Have huge respect for both. TEMPEST CHARM made a very good debut at The Valley. Had she begun better, she may have won. Like where she’s drawn. FAKE LOVE made use of gate one on her home track and won well. It’s obviously a different scenario down the straight but prepared to include. NAPLES drew wide in that race, went back and ran on well. She has the advantage of having had a good straight jumpout. Her stablemate CLOUDY was no match for a smart quinella first go.
Selections: 2. Tempest Charm (top tip), 5. Naples, 1. Fake Love, 12. Nice For What
Race 3:
GARNER is a proven straight horse having won a 1000m race at this carnival 2019. Concede he looked to have his chance behind GRAFF but drawing gate one and racing handily hasn’t been the scenario for any of his wins. He’ll get his chance for a quieter ride. GRAFF finished close up in the 2019 Lightning and Newmarket so he’s right in the game. ANCESTRY is the riddle of the race. His only other straight run is his worst. He came solo outside rail that day and laid in. I note a tongue tie has always been on since that day. He is a beauty around a bend. FIESTA is airborne. VILLAMI was brave first up.
Selections: 3. Garner (top tip), 6. Ancestry, 1. Graff, 7. Fiesta
Race 4:
SAVAHEAT looks worth an each-way play. He won this race second up last year defeating MR MONEY BAGS. They thrashed third. Last prep he also won an 1800m race here second up. His return at Caulfield was good and he looks set to go again. MR MONEYBAGS was back in business on a dry track last time and he’s far from hopeless at good odds too. ADELAIDE ACE comes out of a fast race at MV. He’s suited to 1800m now. The international TINANDALI has some formlines that stack up well. BARTHOLOMEU DIAS was good 1st up. There’s rarely much between PANCHO and MATOWI. IRISH FLAME is flying.
Selections: 6. Savaheat (top tip), 5. Adelaide Ace, 11. Tinandali, 10. Mr Money Bags
Race 5:
Any horse (SKY PUNCH) who can lead Morvada and defeat him at WFA over 1400m is going to be hard to beat in a grey’s race. SKY PUNCH is a very good first up horse finishing top two four of his five first up runs. The miss is a good sixth. He’s a proven weight carrier too. Very wary of STAR MISSILE first up. He’s had a soft jumpout. Two of his four wins are first up at 1400m. HOUSAY gave them too much start at Moe. From a good draw he will be on speed. Back to a dry track won’t be against. 1400m is the unknown but that should be okay. CAFFREY can do things wrong but he does win. Wary of the top two.
Selections: 3. Sky Punch (Best of the Day), 4. Star Missile, 8. Housay, 6. Caffrey
Race 6:
GAME OF THORNS seems good each-way odds in the early markets. Her return was good and luckless. Her last run is a mystery but do note the vets advised she pulled up with a slow recovery. Her last 1600m run she finished right on their heels in the Kembla Grange Classic. D Oliver takes over. I AM ELOQUENT is a strong danger on her last start. The soft ground suited there but her last win was on dry ground. ROCHA CLOCK peaks third up. STROME is flying for her new stable. 1600m is okay. The stayer RE EDIT looked quite sharp in a jumpout. She might be suited by 1600m fresh. MISS INBETWEEN next.
Selections: 11. Game Of Thorns (value bet), 3. I Am Eloquent, 5. Rocha Clock, 4. Strome
Race 7:
A terrific Country Final but it’s impossible. There should be a strong tempo. Bearing in mind every horse is in good form, thought the better chances were KAPLUMPICH (wide and good in this last year), HIGHCLASS HARRY (brave on pacer), VUNGERS (big run second up with weight), DENERO (with a good speed up front, can see him charging home from the back), PIERRO BELLE (won 3 of past 4), INDIANA LILY (good first up and her second-up record is better), PRES DE TOI (looks very dangerous with a light weight and Jamie Kah), LORD MARKEL (maps well) and BRILLIANT CONCEPT (good Geelong, ready to win).
Selections: 8. Vungers (top tip), 4. Kaplumpich, 10. Pierro Belle, 13. Pres De Toi
Race 8:
Not quite sure who leads. If there are no surprises from the roughies then it’s probably TYCHE GODDESS who was part of the early (solid) speed in the Wakeful. MONTEFILIA is very hard to go past after two Group 1 wins in solidly run races. The barrier draw was very kind to her. MIRAVALLE’s Oaks campaign was back on track with a good effort from the back in the Wakeful. She draws well also and should settle up a lot closer this time. TYCHE GODDESS and PERSONAL were good placing in the Wakeful. That race was genuinely run and recorded good overall time. CAFE RIZU looks like she will stay.
Selections: 1. Montefilia (top tip), 6. Miravalle, 2. Personal, 3. Cafe Rizu
Race 9:
Terrific race. If you don’t like WRITTEN BEAUTY you’re getting some great odds about some handy fillies. Both wins have been awesome in record time. The straight is the only query on her. CELESTINE is a good value danger. She defeated MAHA (second to September Run) and La Mexicana (MV winner since) when she won easily down the straight with 60.5kg. Like her back to 1100m of the last run. MINHAAJ is right there on her September Run placings as is MAHA. HIGHLY DISCREET might go better ridden back to charge at them late. MARBOOSHA, AMURI and BELLA NIPOTINA can run well.
Selections: 6. Written Beauty (top tip), 10. Celestine, 4. Minhaaj, 11. Highly Discreet
Race 1: 2. November Dreaming
Race 3: 6. Ancestry
Race 5: 3. Sky Punch
Race 6: 5. Rocha Clock
Race 7: 9. Denero
Race 8:
Miravalle each-way
Trifecta: 1,6/1,2,6/1,2,3,6,7,11
Top 5:
1. Miravalle
2. Montefilia
3. Personal
4. Cafe Rizu
5. Vilanculos
Race 9: 6. Written Beauty – BEST BET
Race 1: November Dreaming
Race 2: Tempest Charm
Race 3: Ancestry
Race 4: Tinandali
Race 5: Housay
Race 7: Easy Beast
Race 8: Personal
Race 9: Minhaaj