2020 State of Origin Game Two Preview & Betting Tips

The following is a preview with betting tips for Game Two of the 2020 State of Origin Series.

2020 State of Origin Schedule

For the first time in Origin’s 40-year history, this year’s series is taking place following the NRL season due to the impact of COVID-19. Each game is televised live on Channel Nine.

Game 1 – Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
NSW 14-19 QLD
Wednesday, November 4

Game 2 – ANZ Stadium, Sydney
Wednesday, November 11, 8:10 PM AEDT

Game 3 – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Wednesday, November 18, 7:10 PM AEST (8:10 PM AEDT)

State of Origin History

Below are the State of Origin results since 2000. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.

Home advantage has been historically important. Since 2000 the Blues have gone 17-1-9 in Sydney and the Maroons have gone 20-7 in Brisbane.

Game I Recap

In a game of two halves the Blues led 10-0 at halftime but were outscored 4-18 in the second spell. Both sides scored three tries but Daly Cherry-Evans made all three conversions for Queensland while Nathan Cleary made 1 of 3 for NSW. Cherry-Evans would have breathed a sigh of relief at that stat given he missed an easy penalty early in the first half. Queensland started the stronger of the two sides but NSW gained the ascendancy as the first half wore on and took a deserved halftime lead. That lead would have been greater had it not been for some resolute defending by the Maroons.

Queensland coach Wayne Bennett obviously said the right things at half time, because Queensland turned the game on its head in the second spell. Through the boots of their halves, Queensland were able to get the ball into good positions while the Blues’ kicking was by far second best. The Blues also looked flat with the ball in hand in the second half as their forwards came off second best in the collisions. The Queensland bench forwards had a positive impact on the side’s performance.

The try scorers were:
NSW: Damien Cook (15′), Josh Addo-Carr (20′, 75′)
QLD: Alexander Brimson (49′), Xavier Coates (53′), Cameron Munster (65′)

2020 State of Origin Game II Squads

New South Wales

1. James Tedesco (c), 2. Daniel Tupou, 3. Clint Gutherson, 4. Jack Wighton, 5. Josh Addo-Carr, 6. Cody Walker, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Daniel Saifiti, 9. Damien Cook, 10. Payne Haas, 11. Angus Crichton, 12. Tyson Frizell, 13. Jake Trbojevic
Interchange: 14. Dale Finucane, 15. Nathan Brown, 16. Junior Paulo, 17. Isaah Yeo
Coach: Brad Fittler

In a notable change from Game I, coach Brad Fittler has responded to five-eighth Luke Keary’s sub-par performance by dropping him from the 17-man squad. Cody Walker has been promoted from the bench to take the No. 6 jersey.

Captain Boyd Cordner has been ruled out for the rest of the series with a head knock. Angus Crichton has been promoted from the bench to replace Cordner, with James Tedesco handed the captaincy. Interchange player Cameron Murray picked up a hamstring injury in Game I and has been ruled out for the rest of the series. In an unenforced change, Payne Haas has been promoted from the bench to start at prop, with Junior Paulo demoted to the bench.

In response to Queensland’s lift from the bench forwards last week, NSW has opted for a four-forward bench.

Queensland

1. Valentine Holmes, 2. Xavier Coates, 3. Kurt Capewell, 4. Dane Gagai, 5. Phillip Sami, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c), 8. Dunamis Lui, 9. Jake Friend, 10. Josh Papalii, 11. Felise Kaufusi, 12. Jaydn Su’A, 13. Tino Faasuamaleaui
Interchange: 14. Ben Hunt, 15. Lindsay Collins, 16. Jai Arrow, 17. Moeaki Fotuaika
Coach: Wayne Bennett

Queensland fullback AJ Brimson has been ruled out for the rest of the series with an ankle injury. Valentine Holmes, who was unavailable last week due to suspension, will take Brimson’s place. In a second forced change, prop Christian Welch has been ruled out with a head knock and has been replaced by Dunamis Lui. After a strong Game I, Kurt Capewell has been named in the starting side, however he is under an injury cloud with groin tightness.

In an unenforced change, Jaydn Su’A replaces Coen Hess in the second row with Moeaki Fotuaika taking Su’A’s place on the interchange bench.

ANZ Stadium history

Fixtures at ANZ Stadium tend to have lower total scores and narrower winning margins than at Suncorp Stadium. Since 2000 the average total score is 38.8 in Brisbane compared to 32.3 in Sydney. During this time, 12 games were won by 1-12 points and 15 games were won by 13+ points in Brisbane. In contrast, 22 games were won by 1-12 points and just 5 games were won by 13+ points in Sydney. Since 2005 the disparity has grown even larger, with all 19 games in Sydney won by 12 points or less, compared to ten 1-12 results and ten 13+ results in Brisbane.

Weather forecast

At the time of writing the Sydney weather forecast for Wednesday is a temperature range of 14-24 with no rain expected.

Bookmaker odds comparison

You can compare up-to-date bookmaker odds across numerous State of Origin markets in the bookmaker odds section.

Game II odds and markets can be viewed here.

Bookmaker promotions

Click here to view the latest State of Origin promotions (excludes NSW and WA residents).

Betting Tips

Head-to-head

At the time of writing the head-to-head odds for Game II are:

New South Wales: 1.33 (bet365)
Queensland: 3.50 (Sportsbet, Unibet)

Given the Blues are at home, where they’ve gone 7-4 since 2011, it’s reasonable for them to be installed as the favourite, but the 1.33 odds don’t appeal.

Line

The Blues are 9.5-point favourites at the time of writing. On one hand, history favours the losers of Game I at the line. In eight of the last nine Origin series, the team that lost Game I covered the line in Game II. Against that stat, however, is the scale of this game’s margin. Since 2012 all 10 Origin matches at ANZ Stadium were won by 8 or fewer points, with 8 of those 10 settled by 4 points or fewer. Going back further, the largest winning margin since 2005 was 10 points, with 16 of the last 18 games at this venue settled by 8 points or less.

With these stats in mind I prefer Queensland +9.5 at 1.91 (bet365)

Winning Margin

Since 2005 all 19 games at ANZ Stadium were settled by 10 points or less, with 8 of the last 10 games at this venue settled by 4 points or less.

With that in mind the following selections both hold appeal:
NSW 1-12 at 2.85 (bet365)
QLD 1-12 at 4.80 (Unibet)

Given the bookmaker’s favourite has won 8 of the last 10 Origin fixtures at ANZ Stadium by 1-12 points, of the above two selections my preference is for NSW 1-12 at 2.85 (bet365)

Another option is to back the winning margin to be less than 6.5 points at 3.22 (Sportsbet). For more risk you can instead back the winning margin to be less than 4.5 points at 4.20 (Sportsbet).

Total Score

Most bookmakers have set an over/under mark of 39.5. Since 2011 only 8 out of 28 Origin fixtures went over this tally and Game II fixtures, while slightly higher scoring than Game I fixtures, tend to have below average total scores. The average Game II total over the last nine years is 32.4. Using the last twenty years of data the average Game II total was just over 34.7 and 9 of the last 11 Origin II matches went under the bookmaker’s total.

Another factor is the venue. Since 2000 the average total score is 38.8 in Brisbane compared to 32.3 in Sydney. Since 2011 the average total score in Sydney is 25.5 with only 1 out of 11 games during that period going over 39.5 points.

Recommendation: back under 39.5 at 1.91 (bet365)

Try Scorer

Valentine Holmes missed the 2019 season due to his NFL venture, but in his five games prior to that in 2017 & 2018 he was the first try scorer in four of his five appearances, including the both Game II in Sydney in 2017 and Game II in Sydney in 2018. You can get 17.00 odds (bet365, Sportsbet, Unibet) for him to repeat that feat. For a more conservative bet you can back Holmes in the anytime try scorer market at 3.60 Sportsbet).

Another selection worth considering for the anytime market is Dane Gagai at 3.60 (bet365). Gagai has scored in 7 of his 14 Origin appearances, which includes both Game II in Sydney in 2017 and Game II in Sydney in 2018. The only dampener is Gagai has been shifted from the wing to the centres for this series.

Best Bets

NSW 1-12 at 2.85 (bet365)

Under 39.5 at 1.91 (bet365)