2020 State of Origin Game Three Preview & Betting Tips

The following is a preview with betting tips for Game Three of the 2020 State of Origin Series.

2020 State of Origin Schedule

For the first time in Origin’s 40-year history, this year’s series is taking place following the NRL season due to the impact of COVID-19. Each game is televised live on Channel Nine.

Game 1 – Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
NSW 14-18 QLD
Wednesday, November 4

Game 2 – ANZ Stadium, Sydney
NSW 34-10 QLD
Wednesday, November 11

Game 3 – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Wednesday, November 18, 7:10 PM AEST (8:10 PM AEDT)

State of Origin History

Below are the State of Origin results since 2000. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.

Home advantage has been historically important. Since 2000 the Blues have gone 18-1-9 in Sydney and the Maroons have gone 20-7 in Brisbane.

Game I Recap

In a game of two halves the Blues led 10-0 at halftime but were outscored 4-18 in the second spell. Both sides scored three tries but Daly Cherry-Evans made all three conversions for Queensland while Nathan Cleary made 1 of 3 for NSW. Cherry-Evans would have breathed a sigh of relief at that stat given he missed an easy penalty early in the first half. Queensland started the stronger of the two sides but NSW gained the ascendancy as the first half wore on and took a deserved halftime lead. That lead would have been greater had it not been for some resolute defending by the Maroons.

Queensland coach Wayne Bennett obviously said the right things at half time, because Queensland turned the game on its head in the second spell. Through the boots of their halves, Queensland were able to get the ball into good positions while the Blues’ kicking was by far second best. The Blues also looked flat with the ball in hand in the second half as their forwards came off second best in the collisions. The Queensland bench forwards had a positive impact on the side’s performance.

The try scorers were:
NSW: Damien Cook (15′), Josh Addo-Carr (20′, 75′)
QLD: Alexander Brimson (49′), Xavier Coates (53′), Cameron Munster (65′)

Game II Recap

After conceding the first try, courtesy of a fantastic finish by Xavier Coates, NSW went on to dominate Game II by winning the first half 18–4 and the second half 16–6. Nathan Cleary responded well to criticism following Game I by putting in a commanding performance with the boot. Cleary repeatedly kicked early in the tackle count and achieved two forced drop-outs and a 40/20 as he finished with 473 kicking metres for the game. Cody Walker was brought in to replace Luke Keary following Game I and the new-look halves pairing of Keary-Walker worked well.

Queensland’s cause wasn’t helped by the early loss of five-eight Cameron Munster to a head knock in the 2nd minute. They kept losing possession and it took some desperate defence to prevent the scoreline from blowing out further.

The try scorers were:
NSW: Josh Addo-Carr (37′, 64′), Cody Walker (16′), James Tedesco (22′), Jack Wighton (42′), Daniel Tupou (53′)
QLD: Xavier Coates, (7′), Josh Papalii (62′)

2020 State of Origin Game III Squads

Queensland

1. Valentine Holmes, 2. Xavier Coates, 3. Kurt Capewell, 4. Dane Gagai, 5. Corey Allan, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c), 8. Christian Welch, 9. Jake Friend, 10. Josh Papalii, 11. Felise Kaufusi, 12. Jaydn Su’A, 13. Tino Faasuamaleaui
Interchange: 14. Harry Grant, 15. Lindsay Collins, 16. Jai Arrow, 17. Moeaki Fotuaika
Coach: Wayne Bennett

Coach Wayne Bennett has made three changes to the 17-man squad from Game II and has introduced two debutants, Harry Grant and Corey Allan. Grant replaces Ben Hunt on the bench and Allen replaces the dropped Phillip Sami on the wing. The third change sees prop Christian Welch return after missing Game II with a head knock. He replaces Dunamis Lui, who will start from the bench at the expense of Moeaki Fotuaika.

It should be noted that five-eighth Cameron Munster still needs to pass through concussion protocols after picking up a head knock in Game 2.

UPDATE (Tue):

Cameron Munster has been cleared to play, however Xavier Coates has been ruled out with a groin issue. This has forced Queensland into a reshuffle. Brenko Lee will make his origin debut at centre, with Kurt Capewell shifting to the back row and Jaydn Su’A dropping to the interchange bench at the expense of Moeaki Fotuaika. Valentine Holmes will shift to the wing with Corey Allan moving to fullback. Edrick Lee will make his origin debut on the other wing.

1. Corey Allan, 2. Valentine Holmes, 3. Brenko Lee, 4. Dane Gagai, 5. Edrick Lee, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c), 8. Christian Welch, 9. Jake Friend, 10. Josh Papalii, 11. Felise Kaufusi, 12. Kurt Capewell, 13. Tino Faasuamaleaui
Interchange: 14. Harry Grant, 15. Lindsay Collins, 16. Jai Arrow, 17. Jaydn Su’A

New South Wales

1. James Tedesco (c), 2. Daniel Tupou, 3. Clint Gutherson, 4. Jack Wighton, 5. Josh Addo-Carr, 6. Cody Walker, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Daniel Saifiti, 9. Damien Cook, 10. Payne Haas, 11. Angus Crichton, 12. Tyson Frizell, 13. Jake Trbojevic
Interchange: 14. Dale Finucane, 15. Nathan Brown, 16. Junior Paulo, 17. Isaah Yeo
Coach: Brad Fittler

Coach Brad Fittler has rewarded his players from Game II by not making any changes to the 17-man squad for Game III. The Walker-Cleary halves pairing is retained, along with the four-forward bench. James Tedesco retains the captaincy after Boyd Cordner was ruled out for the remainder of the series following a head knock in Game I.

Josh Addo-Carr has been named to play despite missing a number of training sessions due to toe bruising.

Suncorp Stadium history

Since 2010 Queensland have gone 11-2 at Suncorp Stadium compared to 6-8 at ANZ Stadium.

Fixtures at Suncorp Stadium tend to have higher total scores than in Sydney. Since 2011 the average total score has been 36.75 in Brisbane compared to 27.08 in Sydney, however in recent years the tables have turned, with Brisbane averaging 30.5 since 2017, compared to 39.0 in Sydney.

Fixtures in Brisbane tend to have a greater range of winning margins than Sydney. Since 2005, only 1 out of 19 games were won by 13+ points in Sydney (just last week!). In contrast, 10 out of 20 games in Brisbane were won by 13+ points.

It’s worth noting that the Queensland state government relaxed COVID-19 restrictions to allow 100 per cent capacity at sporting events. A near capacity crowd is expected at Suncorp on Wednesday.

A noteworthy statistic is the Blues have not won a decider in Queensland since 2005. They have only won two Game III deciders in Queensland out of eleven attempts (1994 and 2005). Another drawback for the Blues is they will travel to Queensland on game-day. Yes, it’s a different sport, but in Super Rugby Australia this year twelve teams travelled on the day of the game and eleven were defeated.

Weather forecast

At the time of writing the Brisbane weather forecast for Wednesday is a temperature range of 20-28 with a “Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening, possibly severe. Winds northerly 15 to 20 km/h tending north to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then shifting southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h in the late morning and afternoon.”

Given that forecast you should pay attention to updates leading up to kick-off.

Bookmaker promotions

Click here to view the latest State of Origin promotions (excludes NSW and WA residents).

Bookmaker odds comparison

You can compare State of Origin bookmaker odds in the odds comparison section.

Game III odds and markets can be viewed here.

Betting

At the time of writing the head-to-head odds for Game III are:

Queensland: 2.90 (bet365, Sportsbet, Unibet)
New South Wales: 1.44 (bet365)

The Blues are 6.5-point favourites with most bookmakers at the time of writing.

Queensland have only lost 2 of their last 13 at Suncorp Stadium but fresh in punters’ minds is the 24-point margin that they lost by in Sydney last week. The Maroons do have a good history of bouncing back, it must be said. In 2017 they lost Game I 4-28 in Brisbane only to win Game II 18-16 and Game III 22-6. They were also far more competitive in Game III last year, losing by 6 points after losing Game II by 32 points.

2019 vs. 2020

This year’s series bears strong resemblance to 2019. Below are the comparative results:

Game I:
NSW were predicted to win the series 3-0 but suffered a shock Game I defeat:
2019: QLD 18-14 NSW (Brisbane)
2020: QLD 18-14 NSW (Adelaide)

Game II:
NSW bounced back with a strong win.
2019: NSW 38-6 QLD (Melbourne)
2020: NSW 34-10 QLD (Sydney)

In 2019 NSW won Game III 26-20 in Sydney, so if history repeats itself, we could be in for a treat on Wednesday.

Match Result

NSW have the stronger side on paper but the venue for this clash is key. The Blues will have to travel on the day of the game, which is a schedule that ended in defeat for 12 out of the 13 Super Rugby Australia sides that tried it this year. Also Queensland have a fantastic record at Suncorp Stadium, where they have gone 11-2 since 2005, without losing any Game III deciders. Another positive angle from Queensland’s perspective is the return of five-eighth Cameron Munster after he left the field with a head knock two minutes into Game II, plus the return of prop Christian Welch after his head knock in Game I.

A NSW 1-12 or 13+ win wouldn’t surprise me, neither would a Queensland 1-12 victory. A conservative approach is to make the following bets:
0.75 units on NSW to win at 1.44 (bet365)
0.25 units on QLD 1-12 at 4.25 (bet365)

A slightly more aggressive option is:
0.83 units on NSW to win at 1.44 (bet365)
0.17 units on QLD 1-6 at 7.00 (Unibet)

Given the venue and the returns of Munster and Welch, I believe the NSW 1-12 result is more likely than NSW 13+, so those looking for more risk should consider:
0.60 units on NSW 1-12 at 2.80 (Sportsbet)
0.40 units on QLD 1-12 at 4.25 (bet365)

And a more aggressive version of the above is
0.71 units on NSW 1-12 at 2.80 (Sportsbet)
0.29 units on QLD 1-6 at 7.00 (Unibet)

Total Score

Most bookmakers have set an over/under mark of 41.5. Based on recent history that total may prove to be way too high or far too low. Since 2013, with the series still on the line, Game III totals have been 22, 58, 28 and 46.

Games I and II in 2020 had the exact same totals as their respective games in 2019:
Game I: 32
Game II: 44
In Game III in 2019 the total was 46.

Given the strong parallels between this year’s series and last year’s, if I were to bet on the total score market I would back over 41.5 at 1.91 (Sportsbet), but not with much conviction.

Try Scorer

Compare anytime try scorer odds
Compare 1st try scorer odds
Compare last try scorer odds

Given Josh Addo-Carr has scored two tries in each of Games I and II, it’s certainly worth considering him in the try scorer markets. Note that he wasn’t the first try scorer in either game but he was the last try scorer in both. Just keep an eye on his toe injury leading up to the game.
Josh Addo-Carr anytime try scorer: 1.70 (bet365, Unibet)
Josh Addo-Carr first try scorer: 8.50 (bet365)
Josh Addo-Carr last try scorer: 8.50 (bet365)

bet365 offers 4.00 odds for Addo-Carr to score two or more tries.

Given the strong try scoring record of Queensland wingers, Xavier Coates at 2.30 (Sportsbet) and Corey Allan at 3.00 (Sportsbet) are worth a look in the anytime try scorer market. Coates has scored a try in each of Game I and Game II this series. There has been speculation that debutant Corey Allan will shift from the wing to fullback after Valentine Holmes was spotted training on the wing for the Maroons this week. Holmes missed the 2019 season due to his NFL venture, but in his five games prior to that in 2017 & 2018 he was the first try scorer in four of his five appearances, including each of his previous two appearances at Suncorp Stadium. Given the aforementioned history of Maroons’ wingers scoring tries, Holmes could be good value if the positional switch rumours are true. You can get 17.00 odds (bet365) for Holmes in the first tryscorer market and 2.80 odds (bet365) in the anytime try scorer market.

UPDATE (Tue):

With Xavier Coates ruled out with a groin injury, Valentine Holmes will start on the wing. He has dropped to 2.30 (Sportsbet) in the anytime scorer market and 12.00 (Sportsbet) in the first tryscorer market, so congrats to everyone who jumped on him beforehand.