Introduction

The following is a team-by-team preview for the 2021 Super Rugby AU season. Betting resources and futures betting tips are also provided.

The competition will feature ten rounds with each side playing eight games and receiving two byes. The 2nd and 3rd placed sides will participate in a Qualifying Final to determine who faces the 1st placed side in the final. The Force return again for this tournament and have heavily bolstered the squad that finished 0-8 last season.

Team-By-Team Previews

Brumbies

• Futures Odds: 2.37 (bet365) to win Supr Rugby AU and 151.00 (Sportsbet) for the wooden spoon.
• Rugby Vision Title Winning Probability: 33% (equates to fair odds of 3.03)
• Rugby Vision Wooden Spoon Probability: 0.6% (equates to fair odds of 166.67)
• 2018 Season: Finished 10th overall (3rd in the Australian conference) with a 7-0-9 regular season record.
• 2019 Season: Finished 3rd (4th highest points tally) overall (1st in the Australian conference) with a 10-0-6 regular season record (7-0-1 at home, 3-0-5 away). Lost in the semi-finals to the Jaguares.
• 2020 AU Season: Finished 1st in the Super Rugby AU standings with a 6-0-2 regular season record (4-0-0 at home, 2-0-2 away). Defeated the Reds in the final 28-23 in Canberra.
• 2020 AU Stats: 4th ranked for points scored, with 30 tries. In terms of points conceded the Brumbies had the 1st best defence in the competition.
• Head Coach: Dan McKellar
• Captain(s): Alan Alaalatoa
• Key Departures: Murray Douglas (Japan), Will Miller (retired), Lachlan McCaffrey (Japan), Joe Powell (Rebels), Tevita Kuridrani (Force), Toni Pulu (Force)
• Key Arrivals: James Tucker (Blues), Nic White (Exeter Chiefs – had joined them for the last few rounds last season)
• Squad:
  Forwards: Allan Alaalatoa, Jahrome Brown, Tom Cusack, Folau Fainga’a, Nick Frost, Archer Holz, Tom Hooper, Harry Lloyd, Lachlan Lonergan, Connal McInerney, Cadeyrn Neville, Billy Pollard, Luke Reimer, Tom Ross, Pete Samu, Rory Scott, Scott Sio, James Slipper, Darcy Swain, James Tucker, Rob Valetini
  Backs: Lachlan Albert, Tom Banks, Issak Fines, Mack Hansen, Len Ikitau, Solomone Kata, Bayley Kuenzle, Noah Lolesio, Ryan Lonergan, Andy Muirhead, Reesjan Pasitoa, Irae Simone, Reece Tapine, Nic White, Tom Wright
• International Capped Players: 10
• Injuries & Suspensions: Tom Wright (6 weeks), Scott Sio (1 week)
• Pre-season Results: Brumbies 29-28 Force
• Pundit Predictions 2nd¹, 2nd², 2nd³
• Causes for Optimism: Will enjoy great cohesion from the start due to having retained 28 players from the squad that won last season’s AU title. Led Super Rugby AU in tries per game (3.8) last season and had the best defensive record. Have retained head coach Dan McKellar through to the end of 2022. Have a good blend of youth and experience in the squad, with an average age of 25. Are best known for their rolling maul yet all but six of their seven first-choice backline players were in the Wallabies squad last season. Have a good record in tight contests, having never lost a game that was settled by 1-12 points last season.
• Causes for Concern: Will be without winger Tom Wright for half the season due to injury. He was their joint highest try scorer last year. The Brumbies had only the 4th highest scoring offence last season, which was partially due their lack of a sharp-shooting goal kicker. Have an unfortunately timed by in Round 10, so they would have two weeks with no rugby should they qualify directly for the final. Have lost squad depth in the back row so injuries in that area would hurt them. Lachlan McCaffrey’s departure in particular is a big loss.
• Summary: The Brumbies should finish in the top 2 but I expect the rest of the competition has closed the gap from last season.

 

Force

• Futures Odds: 12.00 (Sportsbet) to win Supr Rugby AU and 2.25 (Sportsbet) for the wooden spoon.
• Rugby Vision Title Winning Probability: 0.8% (equates to fair odds of 125)
• Rugby Vision Wooden Spoon Probability: 87.4% (equates to fair odds of 1.14)
• 2018 Season: did not participate
• 2019 Season: did not participate
• 2020 AU Season: Finished 5th in the Super Rugby AU standings with a 0-0-8 regular season record (0-0-4 at home, 0-0-4 away).
• 2020 AU Stats: 5th ranked for points scored, with 15 tries. In terms of points conceded the Force had the 5th best defence in the competition.
• Head Coach: Tim Sampson
• Captain(s): Ian Prior
• Key Departures: Pek Cowan, Nick Frisby
• Key Arrivals: Santiago Medrano (Jaguares), Tom Robertson (Waratahs), Tim Anstee (Australia 7s), Tomás Lezana (Jaguares), Tomás Cubelli (Jaguares), Jake McIntyre (Clermont), Domingo Miotti (Jaguares), Tevita Kuridrani (Brumbies), Toni Pulu (Brumbies), Rob Kearney (Leinster)
• Squad:
  Forwards: Bo Abra, Tim Anstee, Ollie Callan, Victor Harris, Chris Heiberg, Greg Holmes, Feleti Kaitu’u, Kane Koteka, Fergus Lee-Warner, Tomas Lezana, Kieran Longbottom, Ryan McCauley, Santiago Medrano, Jackson Pugh, Andrew Ready, Tom Robertson, Brynard Stander, Jeremy Thrush, Angus Wagner, Jack Winchester
  Backs: Marcel Brache, Tomas Cubelli, Kyle Godwin, Richard Kahui, Rob Kearney, Tevita Kuridrani, Brad Lacey, Jono Lance, Grason Makara, Jack McGregor, Jake McIntyre, Michael McDonald, Domingo Miotti, Ian Prior, Toni Pulu, Byron Ralston, Jake Strachan, Henry Taefu
• International Capped Players: 13
• Pre-season Results: Brumbies 29-28 Force
• Pundit Predictions 4th¹, 3rd², 4th³
• Causes for Optimism: Have been the biggest movers in the off-season, bringing in a lot of international experience to strengthen the squad and improve squad depth. The Force now have more internationally capped players than any other team. Their defence looked well organised in their pre-season hit out against the Brumbies. Will get to play four times at home this season after playing every game on the east coast last year. Had only a limited prep for last season so they weren’t as match-fit as the rest of the competition.
• Causes for Concern: Averaged just 14.4 points per game last season, which was the lowest in Australia by a large margin. The next lowest were the Brumbies are 23.6. The Force also averaged just 1.9 tries per game, with the next lowest being the Rebels at 2.6. Defensively the Force were also the worst in the competition with 10 more tried scored against them than the next worst team. Had an eye-watering -138 points differential last season, while every other team ended with a positive differential. It may take time for the new-look squad to gel. They’ve made numerous changes to the team but have only had one pre-season hit out. Their move for 63-Test veteran Julian Montoya fell through due to family visa issues so the Force remain light in the hooker position.
• Summary: The Force should be much improved on last season but it might take a little while for the new-look squad to gel.

 

Rebels

• Futures Odds: 12.00 (Sportsbet) to win Supr Rugby AU and 2.10 (Sportsbet) for the wooden spoon.
• Rugby Vision Title Winning Probability: 17.4% (equates to fair odds of 5.75)
• Rugby Vision Wooden Spoon Probability: 6.1% (equates to fair odds of 16.39)
• 2018 Season: Finished 9th overall (2nd in the Australian conference) with a 7-0-9 regular season record.
• 2019 Season: Finished 11th overall (2nd in the Australian conference) with a 7-0-9 regular season record (4-0-4 at home, 3-0-5 away).
• 2020 AU Season: Finished 3rd in the Super Rugby AU standings with a 4-1-3 regular season record (2-1-1 (all home games were played at neutral venues) at home, 2-0-2 away). Lost 13-25 to the Reds in the qualifying final.
• 2020 AU Stats: 3rd ranked for points scored, with 21 tries. In terms of points conceded the Rebels had the 3rd best defence in the competition.
• Head Coach: David Wessels
• Captain(s): Dane Haylett-Petty & Matt To’omua
• Key Departures: Jermaine Ainsley (Highlanders), Ruan Smith (USA), Anaru Rangi (Japan), Gideon Koegelenberg (Japan), Matt Philip (France), Angus Cottrell (USA), Luke Jones (France), Ryan Louwrens (Japan), Andrew Deegan (Japan), Tom English (Japan), Bill Meakes (USA), Andrew Kellaway (Japan)
• Key Arrivals: Jeral Skelton (Australia 7s), Joe Powell (Brumbies), Lewis Holland (Australia 7s), Lachie Anderson (Australia 7s), Young Tonumaipea (Titans, NRL), James Hanson (England), Steve Cummins (France)
• Squad:
  Forwards: Ignacio Calas, Ed Craig, Steven Cummins, Cabous Eloff, Pone Faamausili, Matt Gibbon, Richard Hardwick, Ross Haylett-Petty, James Hanson, Trevor Hosea, Josh Kemeny, Robert Leota, Isi Naisarani, Cameron Orr, Jeral Skelton, Lucio Sordoni, Jordan Uelese, Rhys Van Nek, Michael Wells, Brad Wilkin
  Backs: Lachlan Anderson, Carter Gordon, Dane Haylett-Petty, Reece Hodge, Lewis Holland, Marika Koroibete, Frank Lomani, Campbell Magnay, Thomas Pincus. Joe Powell, Theo Strang, Young Tonumaipea, Matt To’omua, James Tuttle, Glen Vaihu, Ilikena Vudogo
• International Capped Players: 10
• Injuries & Suspensions: Dane Haylett-Petty (concussion, unknown return date)
• Pre-season Results:
• Pundit Predictions 3rd¹, 4th², 3rd³
• Causes for Optimism: Will enjoy actual home games after having to play last Super Rugby AU away from Melbourne. Australia 7’s player Jeral Skelton is an intriguing addition. Isi Naisarani should be back to full fitness after an injury-impacted 2020 season. Have a good blend of youth and experience in the squad.
• Causes for Concern: Only just squeaked into the playoffs last season courtesy of having a net points difference that was one point better than the 4th placed Waratahs. Only side not to have played a pre-season game. Were notoriously inconsistent last year. Their forwards stocks have taken a hit with the departures of Matt Philip and Jermaine Ainsley. Will start the campaign without regular captain Dane Haylett-Petty, whose return date is unknown as he recovers from a concussion. You could argue the Rebels are overly reliant on the health and performance of one player in Matt To’omua. Have an unfortunately timed by in Round 1 followed by games against the Reds and Brumbies, so they could spend the season playing catch up. They will play at least the first of those fixtures without captain Dane Haylett-Petty, who is still recovering from a concussion.
• Summary: A finish anywhere between 3rd and 5th wouldn’t surprise me.

 

Reds

• Futures Odds: 3.30 (bet365) to win Supr Rugby AU and 31.00 (Sportsbet) for the wooden spoon.
• Rugby Vision Title Winning Probability: 29.5% (equates to fair odds of 3.39)
• Rugby Vision Wooden Spoon Probability: 1.1% (equates to fair odds of 90.91)
• 2018 Season: Finished 13th overall (4th in the Australian conference) with a 6-0-10 regular season record.
• 2019 Season: Finished 14th overall (4th in the Australian conference) with a 6-0-10 regular season record (4-0-4 at home, 2-0-6 away).
• 2020 AU Season: Finished 2nd in the Super Rugby AU standings with a 5-1-2 regular season record (4-0-0 at home, 1-1-2 away). Beat the Rebels 25-13 at Suncorp Stadium in the qualifying final, lost to the Brumbies 23-28 in Canberra in the final.
• 2020 AU Stats: 1st ranked for points scored, with 28 tries. In terms of points conceded the Reds had the 2nd best defence in the competition.
• Head Coach: Brad Thorn
• Captain(s): Liam Wright & James O’Connor
• Key Departures: JP Smith (USA), Izack Rodda (France), Chris Feauai-Sautia (France), Henry Speight (France)
• Key Arrivals: Suliasi Vunivalu (Melbourne Storm, NRL)
• Squad:
  Forwards: Angus Blyth, Matt Faessler, Feao Fotuaika, Ben Grant, Harry Hoopert, Alex Mafi, Fraser McReight, Josh Nasser, Zane Nonggorr, Brandon Paenga-Amosa, Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, Angus Scott-Young, Ryan Smith, Tuaina Taii Tualima, Taniela Tupou, Seru Uru, Sam Wallis, Harry Wilson, Liam Wright, Dane Zander
  Backs: Jock Campbell, Hudson Creighton, Lawson Creighton, Filipo Daugunu, Ilasia Droasese, Josh Flook, Mac Grealy, Bryce Hegarty, Isaac Henry, Tate McDermott, James O’Connor, Hunter Paisami, Jordan Petaia, Moses Sorovi, Hamish Stewart, Kalani Thomas, Suliasi Vunivalu
• International Capped Players: 11
• Injuries & Suspensions: Liam Wright (10 weeks). Brandon Paenga-Amosa (injured, tournament start), Lukhan Salakaia-Loto (suspension, 1 game), Suliasi Vunivalu has been suspended by the club for at least the first week for disciplinary reasons.
• Pre-season Results: Waratahs 45-33 Reds
• Pundit Predictions 1st¹, 1st², 1st³
• Causes for Optimism: Led the Australian league in points scored (26.9 average) last season. Finished the regular season with the highest points differential (+65) in the league. Have retained the core of last season’s squad.
• Causes for Concern: Will be without captain Liam Wright for an estimated 10 weeks due to an ankle injury. High-profile recruit Suliasi Vunivalu has been dropped from what would have been his Super Rugby AU debut for disciplinary reasons.
• Summary: Brad Thorn has had this team for a number of years so it should now be shaped to his liking. I’m expecting a top-2 finish for the Reds. A title win wouldn’t surprise me.

 

Waratahs

• Futures Odds: 8.50 (Sportsbet) to win Supr Rugby AU and 6.00 (Sportsbet) for the wooden spoon.
• Rugby Vision Title Winning Probability: 19.5% (equates to fair odds of 5.13)
• Rugby Vision Wooden Spoon Probability: 5% (equates to fair odds of 20)
• 2018 Season: Finished 3rd (5th highest points tally) overall (1st in the Australian conference) with a 9-1-6 regular season record. Lost in the semi-finals to the Lions.
• 2019 Season: Finished 12th overall (3rd in the Australian conference) with a 6-0-10 regular season record (3-0-5 at home, 3-0-5 away).
• 2020 AU Season: Finished 4th in the Super Rugby AU standings with a 4-0-4 regular season record (2-0-2 at home, 2-0-2 away).
• 2020 AU Stats: 2nd ranked for points scored, with 22 tries. In terms of points conceded the Waratahs had the 4th best defence in the competition.
• Head Coach: Rob Penney
• Captain(s): Jake Gordon
• Key Departures: Michael Hooper (sabbatical in Japan), Ned Hanigan (Japan), and Rob Simmons (England), Karmichael Hunt (released), Tom Robertson (Force), Jed Holloway (Japan), Cam Clark (USA)
• Key Arrivals: Izaia Perese (France), Jack Whetton (Highlanders), Sam Caird (Northland), Sam Wykes (Sunwolves), Dave Porecki (England)
• Squad:
  Forwards: Robbie Abel, Angus Bell, Sam Caird, Joe Cotton, Jack Dempsey, Max Douglas, Tetera Faulkner, Charlie Gamble, Will Harris, Tom Horton, Harry Johnson-Holmes, Dave Porecki, Hugh Sinclair, Lachlan Swinton, Chris Talakai, Alefosio Tatola, Tiaan Tauakipulu, Carlo Tizzano, Jack Whetton, Jeremy Williams, Sam Wykes
  Backs: Ben Donaldson, Tane Edmed, Lalakai Foketi, Jake Gordon, Jack Grant, Will Harrison, Jack Maddocks, Tepai Moeroa, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Alex Newsome, Izaia Perese, James Ramm, Triston Reilly, Henry Robertson, Joey Walton
• International Capped Players: 7
• Injuries & Suspensions: Lachie Swinton (suspended)
• Pre-season Results: Waratahs 45-33 Reds
• Pundit Predictions 5th¹, 5th², 5th³
• Causes for Optimism: Have a number of promising Junior Wallabies in the squad. Jake Gordon is healthy after missing a large portion of last season. The Waratahs went 1-3 without him and 3-1 with him last campaign. Only missed out on the playoffs by a solitary point in the points difference statistic. Have conveniently timed byes in Rounds 4 and 8.
• Causes for Concern: Following an exodus of experience after 2019, the Waratahs have lost further experience ahead of this season, including Michael Hooper on sabbatical and their two starting locks from 2020. This year’s squad lacks depth as a result. Conceded 24 points per game last season, which was the second most in the competition. The have fewer internationally capped players than any other side this season. Have a rough start to the campaign with away fixtures against the Reds and Brumbies.
• Summary: Many pundits have the Waratahs down for the wooden spoon, but I’m not quite convinced. They finished last season on a 3-1 run and a 3rd place finish wouldn’t surprise me.

 

 

Futures Betting Tips

Compare the latest Super Rugby AU odds

Title winner

The Brumbies at 2.37 (bet365) are rightful title favourite but the Reds at 3.30 (bet365) represent better value. Much of last year’s final came down to the fact that the Brumbies hosted the game due to having won one more regular season game. Due to covid the visiting teams travelled at the last minute which always played into the hands of the host side.

Wooden Spoon

Quite a few teams could end up with the wooden spoon, but the Waratahs are the standout at 6.00 odds (Sportsbet) compared to the Rebels (2.10) and Force (2.25).

 

Pundit sources:

• ¹ The Roar
• ² ESPN
• ³ Rugby.com.au

Notes

New and departed players lists are sourced from:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_2019–20_Super_Rugby_transfers

Squad lists have been sourced from:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Super_Rugby_season#Players